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Velti plc Message Board

hammerandtong2001 36 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Sep 8, 2001
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  • hammerandtong2001 hammerandtong2001 16 hours ago Flag

    They all screamed for her head and were thrilled when she was tossed. Bet everyone wishes Andrea Jung had stayed. Look at AVP trading with a 6 handle. Disaster.

  • hammerandtong2001 by hammerandtong2001 May 29, 2015 7:45 AM Flag

    From 4/30/15 to 5/15/15 short interest grew to 88.2 million shares - an increase of about 4 million shares, or about 5%. 20.3% of the float now short.

    Pretty clear that smart money doesn't have any faith in an imminent buyout. It'll be interesting to see how the 5/14/15 "fakeover" affected the short interest -- that info will be published 6/9/15.

    .

  • hammerandtong2001 hammerandtong2001 May 15, 2015 9:00 AM Flag

    Coty, privately held at the time, offered 24.75 for AVP in May 2012. The offer was partly financed by Warren Buffett. AVP BOD rejected the 10.7 Bil offer; Sheri McCoy had just been named CEO, replacing long-time CEO Andrea Jung.

  • hammerandtong2001 by hammerandtong2001 May 14, 2015 3:21 PM Flag

    US Markets are untrustworthy. This is a complete and utter scam. The game is controlled by unscrupulous institutions who now resort to fraud in order to profit.

    This was NOT a hoax. Every meaningful short has covered on this news.

  • hammerandtong2001 by hammerandtong2001 May 14, 2015 2:13 PM Flag

    20% of the float short - over 80 million shares.

    Too many big names short and can't get burned on a legit offer. Short was overcrowded.

    How does this "hoax" get on the SEC website? Somebody has the log in info. No other way to file with SEC and have it published on the site.

  • Reply to

    They should declare stock buyback program

    by glattsteller May 6, 2015 2:39 PM
    hammerandtong2001 hammerandtong2001 May 7, 2015 8:08 AM Flag

    Nevah hoppen. They don't have the cash to do a buy back program. With a projected 100 Mil in FCF, a 2 notch debt downgrade, a near term huge debt refinancing, and more looking at them, they need to conserve cash, instead of blowing it on a buy back. Do the math: what would it take to meaningfully reduce the share count here? A lot.

    It'd be much more realistic to suspend or lower the dividend. And without some "strategic action" we're betting that's what happens sometime in 2015.

  • hammerandtong2001 by hammerandtong2001 May 5, 2015 2:42 PM Flag

    They should fire their PR team and agencies. Horrible day in the press.

    6 handle soon.

  • hammerandtong2001 by hammerandtong2001 May 1, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    Debt downgrade two notches and very critical commentary. Moody's doesn't think AVP have the liquidity needed to execute the operational turnaround plan they're talking about.

  • Reply to

    Big Buyer Stepping in!

    by valuanalyst May 1, 2015 11:05 AM
    hammerandtong2001 hammerandtong2001 May 1, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    Maybe -

    I haven't seen a filing that says somebody has recently gone north of 5%. Have you? Current 5% + holders are required to file when they increase positions, yes?

  • hammerandtong2001 by hammerandtong2001 Apr 30, 2015 5:05 PM Flag

    On any registration or filing for public share issuance which lists MDV as a major selling holder, those SEC filings need to come with a PUBLIC WARNING STATEMENT. FUEL should have never been brought public - this is a scam and borderline fraud.

    We are thrilled MDV is still stuck with 22 million shares of this #$%$ - even after they pocketed north of $100 million, selling a pile at $60/share. We hope this POS goes to zero, and that MDV eats those shares. They deserve it for scamming retail investors with a BS "story" stock like this.

  • hammerandtong2001 by hammerandtong2001 Apr 30, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    The call was cordial though crisp at points. Thought Sheri was quite deferential to Jim suggesting his role as CFO packs a potentially bigger mandate. AVP shut down any questions regarding strategic alternatives, and stated at the outset no questions on that topic would be entertained. So much for that.

    Analysts were generally skeptical about FY guidance, with 3-4 of them focusing their one allowed query around questions centering on liquidity. One pondered about a dividend cut: no direct response, one asked about the new revolver covenants, one asked about capex cuts in view FCF is projected at only $100 million and whether there was simply enough money to accomplish needed improvements in product, rep recruitment, etc.

    Analyst community is doubtful about the turnaround and clearly concerned that FY guidance can't be met. Sheri was a bit clipped by end of call and responses bordered on curt.

    Not too good.

  • hammerandtong2001 by hammerandtong2001 Apr 30, 2015 7:44 AM Flag

    Well, the numbers are in and it ain't pretty.

    Missed earnings significantly on adjusted basis posting $0.04 versus consensus of $0.07. They sorta hit the rev number rounding up to $1.8 Bil. North America continues to implode, but very worrisome light Latin America numbers. Very weak across the board and expecting share price to return to the $7's.

  • hammerandtong2001 by hammerandtong2001 Apr 29, 2015 5:15 PM Flag

    They put out a release about this ?!? For heaven's sake, get a basic PR strategy.

    Local is a public co trading at 65 cents per share - 65 cents! They employee 65 people! GAWD! What's next? FUEL signs great deal with the corner deli to power their online ad campaigns.

  • hammerandtong2001 by hammerandtong2001 Apr 29, 2015 8:00 AM Flag

    Is he an actual "employee" of MDC Partners?

    How does a "contractor" gain access to shareholder funds for these described and listed "personal" expenditures?

  • hammerandtong2001 hammerandtong2001 Apr 23, 2015 4:00 PM Flag

    This is nonsense. What are you talking about? FUEL will post a Q1 operating loss of almost $40 million. That's a disaster. The accrued benefit on reduced comp/overheads, etc is generous, probably closer to $10MM, BUT the main point is that FUEL has NO earnings to forward project a PE.

    A key issue here is whether FUEL can maintain revenue as they cut staff significantly and adjust to a series of exec mgmt changes. The far more relevant calculations include determining the revenue level needed for breakeven at the reduced staff levels, and what it will take to achieve that revenue. And even more importantly, how can this business scale? FUEL has been spending $1.30 in operating costs to achieve every $1.00 in NET revenue - this simply cannot continue.

    FUEL is in trouble -- and that's why it's traded from $60 to $9.

  • hammerandtong2001 by hammerandtong2001 Apr 15, 2015 3:00 PM Flag

    There's an earnings announcement to get through.

    Wall Street consensus for Q1 2015: $0.07 per share on revenue of $1.853 Billion. As reference, Q1 2014 showed $0.12 per share on $2.184 Billion. Wall Street already anticipating a 15% drop in revenue to kick off the earnings year.

    Estimize is forecasting another miss to $0.06 and $1.821 topline. I wouldn't be surprised at all. In fact, I think AVP can miss badly - especially in North America. The difficult winter surely kept reps at home and the dollar has stayed super strong.

    Any thoughts on a dividend cut - or suspension?

  • hammerandtong2001 by hammerandtong2001 Apr 14, 2015 4:05 PM Flag

    Why would a strategic buyer leave the growth markets behind? North America may not actually be fixable. The value is Brazil/Latin America and Eastern Europe.

  • hammerandtong2001 hammerandtong2001 Apr 14, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    Of course they have to say outperform - they were one of two IPO underwriters for FUEL. What else are they going to say? Yes, we were in cahoots with MDV, we got paid millions to run this POS through an IPO, we put on a great roadshow, and scammed retail, and we still think FUEL is going to "da moon."

    Sure thing.

  • hammerandtong2001 by hammerandtong2001 Apr 14, 2015 1:22 PM Flag

    So there it is. Which means there's no offer in hand, and earnings for 4/30 are probably a disaster.

    So it's going to be shopped for a price. Agree that the BOD completely misplayed this. Still, I think they can get mid-teens for this. A fitting smack in the face after walking away from $24. Jerks.

  • When AVP originally announced this May 13 event on January 12, they also cancelled their presentation at the Consumer Analyst Group of NY conference, scheduled for Feb 18-19.

    Scully's hiring was announced January 28.

    Knowing that they were finalizing Scully's deal during mid-January, AVP blew off CAGNY. All good. But when they announced the scheduling for the Annual Investor Day on January 12, they also knew Scully was on-boarding by about April 1.

    "Mid-May" versus "Fall, 2015" -- that's pretty imprecise. Makes me wonder whether or nor there'll ever be an "Annual Investor Conference." That language and timing is off. Scully doesn't need 7-8 months to prep for a conference.

    .

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