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Emmis Communications Corp. Message Board

hank_simpleton 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 19, 2014 8:09 PM Member since: Jan 24, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Selling Cordon Bleu at 4 PM

    by dahnshaulis Dec 19, 2014 5:31 PM
    hank_simpleton hank_simpleton Dec 19, 2014 8:09 PM Flag

    Being the best brand is not the critical aspect of this divestiture. CEO already said in numerous occasion the art schools have issues and he will be trying to get rid of them. They are the weak link in spite of branding.

    Most likely, they have issues with compliance which will hurt the universities/colleges which will be driving most revenue/growth down the road. I hope they use the money for a) buy back stock which is cheap, b) expand online education because it is the future.

  • hank_simpleton by hank_simpleton Dec 18, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    It was coming. CEO had some negative words for the art and culinary schools... I think the issue was mostly compliance. Smaller company, tightly run, much more profitable.

  • hank_simpleton by hank_simpleton Dec 15, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    The letter sent by OXF to unitholders said at some point that stock appreciated and it was proof that the deal with Westmoreland was a good one. So where is the stock appreciation?? Looks to me that the move to $1.22 last month was just the investment bankers supporting the price to delude us into thinking the deal with wmb is great. Now, that they may have enough votes secured all I see is selling.

  • hank_simpleton hank_simpleton Nov 15, 2014 1:04 AM Flag

    Looks like ceco sold assets in 2013 to fund their turnaround. If ebitda positive next quarter they should continue their turnaround strategy without problems. Including continuing taking students from coco, as ceo mentioned in last call.
    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=COCO&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=129956&style=320&freq=2&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=10&rand=601198659&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&comp=ceco&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1

  • hank_simpleton by hank_simpleton Nov 7, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    And throughout 2015. Turnaround story intact.

  • hank_simpleton hank_simpleton Nov 7, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    What are you talking about?
    Company will be ebitda positive next quarter and throughout 2015. Turnaround on schedule.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • hank_simpleton by hank_simpleton Nov 3, 2014 6:05 PM Flag

    Their largest cost seems to be diesel which they have blamed to for their poor performance. Does the collapse in crude prices help them lowering diesel costs?

  • Reply to

    Confused by WLB deal.

    by pump_monkey Oct 17, 2014 6:57 PM
    hank_simpleton hank_simpleton Oct 20, 2014 2:27 PM Flag

    Thank you, jrad. Did you also listen to OXFs last cc?

  • Reply to

    Conference call comments

    by jrad52 Oct 20, 2014 10:37 AM
    hank_simpleton hank_simpleton Oct 20, 2014 11:22 AM Flag

    Heard again their last cc. 98.1% committed for 2014. Can increase production 500k tons without increasing capex. Adjusted ebitda 13 mill for 2Q. Capex 3.2 mill 2Q. Paying between 12.5 to 17.5 mill to the first lien debt. Guidance: ebitda 38.5 42.5 mill/year not including the big river settlement. Capex 18 to 20 mill. year.

  • Reply to

    Conference call comments

    by jrad52 Oct 20, 2014 10:37 AM
    hank_simpleton hank_simpleton Oct 20, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    Thanks. I also think they erred big time on OXF's ebitda. Last quarter it was above 13 million and the company indicated that there was a potential 200k tons deal floating in the air and their customers were looking at more demand. I have emailed them about this deal and they responded today saying there will soon be SEC documents filed and proxys sent.

  • Reply to

    Confused by WLB deal.

    by pump_monkey Oct 17, 2014 6:57 PM
    hank_simpleton hank_simpleton Oct 19, 2014 10:53 PM Flag

    jrad, here.. dial 1-877-660-6853 or 1-201-612-7415 internationally and enter the Conference ID #: 13593290. WLB guys on the call. I believe there is an extensive, scheduled dropdown list for the new OXF. An analyst asked if a railroad could be included in there too!

  • Reply to

    Confused by WLB deal.

    by pump_monkey Oct 17, 2014 6:57 PM
    hank_simpleton hank_simpleton Oct 19, 2014 2:02 PM Flag

    Thank you again, jrad52. Did you listen to the conference call? It was Westmoreland's CEO who said they were assuming OXFs debt whatever that means... and that they were valuing the transaction at around 200 mill. (5X ebitda). I guess that doesn't change anything since the deal will become apparent in the coming quarters/years when they push for the 80/90% you speak about.

    However, he did say OXF may benefit from a few issues: lower capital structure and better efficiencies coming from WLB, not to mention better prospects for the region as some operations close shop in 2015. In addition, I see you do not place any value on potential benefits coming from a new Congress, a fracking debacle which may rise natural gas prices making coal more competitive. I know these are speculative assumptions but may put some tailwinds behind this deal. Also, if you haven't followed OXF closely they just won 19 mill from a lawsuit and on last cc they said they would apply about half to reduce interest commitments on their debt. Not a game changer but helps a bit. I know you are negative on OXF. Just trying to assess if this could be the beginning of a small turnaround that ay gets us some quarterly money.

  • Reply to

    Confused by WLB deal.

    by pump_monkey Oct 17, 2014 6:57 PM
    hank_simpleton hank_simpleton Oct 19, 2014 12:37 AM Flag

    No, I do not ignore you and I actually welcome your expertise. What do you mean by "I guess the plan after that is for WLB to drop down/sell some of its assets to OXF and run the usual MLP game."?

    This is from the other coal board you posted at... What is the "usual MLP game"? And how that may play out here? I believe your numbers are more accurate except we don't know the final yield neither how the additional 25% may change investor's units tally.

  • Reply to

    Confused by WLB deal.

    by pump_monkey Oct 17, 2014 6:57 PM
    hank_simpleton hank_simpleton Oct 18, 2014 12:33 PM Flag

    I still think this should trade closer to or above $2. Westmoreland is paying 30 mill for 77% of the company and assuming the whole debt which they will restructure or refinance. The full deal for them is 5x ebidta which they have valued at 40mill (oxf) + 5.8 mill (westmoreland), so approx. 200 mill. Just from the cash paid alone for their 77% interest it represents and implied value of Oxford of 39/40 million (debt assumed).

  • Reply to

    Confused by WLB deal.

    by pump_monkey Oct 17, 2014 6:57 PM
    hank_simpleton hank_simpleton Oct 17, 2014 10:43 PM Flag

    Last I heard, IRS has been denying and delaying many MLPs applications as they believe something fishy is going on. This is a deal that most likely Westmoreland has been after. Therefore, Oxford should receive a substantial benefit.

  • Reply to

    Confused by WLB deal.

    by pump_monkey Oct 17, 2014 6:57 PM
    hank_simpleton hank_simpleton Oct 17, 2014 10:25 PM Flag

    MLPs are being watched carefully by the IRS, I believe, given their special tax treatment. Maybe this is an elegant way to enter this space without having someone's eyes on their back and Oxford gets rewarded. But maybe I have no clue.

  • hank_simpleton hank_simpleton Sep 24, 2014 3:35 PM Flag

    And you wonder suddenly Liberty Capital bail out of their fight for control... They must have told them "privately" this hand grenade was about to go off.

EMMS
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