This "analysis" done by TheStreet isn't worth the (electronic) paper it's printed on! It is preprogrammed and nearly mindless and worthless IMO. Not worth reading in my opinion.
It's not the percentage of downside risk that matters so much as the absolute number of dollars at risk, For LP this number is huge, by any account (even with discounted shares) she has a huge number of dollars at risk - easily in the many tens of millions of dollars.
Actually I tried to do that but the sign in program wouldn't let me in. If you don't mind could you post this for me at the AtTheStreet comments noting my post on Yahoo. Thanx
You ask: "Why would hedge funds be motivated to short shares of Northwest Biotherapeutics and put the company out of business?"
The answer is very simple:because NWBO is a small biotech with no income and needs funding which in today's environment is not easy to obtain. So they are easy prey at the mercy of Hedge Funds with deep pockets. This is a sure thing (while no news is out or like today when the entire market is down big time) for them (short term) while going long is not a sure thing and requires a long term commitment.
You write: "They overlook the details showing most of Powers' holdings come from preferentially priced warrants and stock payments tied to her ownership of Cognate BioServices."
The obvious response is simple: Sure, it is debatable whether LP received "preferentially priced warrants and stock," but the point is they were still far from free and it is clear she wants a significant holding in NWBO because she strongly believes NWBO will succeed and she is not the pied piper leading the poor blind investors to their doom as you seem to imply.
You further write: "if DCVax-L blows up, Northwest's stock will fall even further and shareholder equity will be decimated. Cognate and Powers do not shoulder the same level of financial risk. If the ongoing DCVax-L phase III brain cancer study is shut down or fails, Cognate and Powers have a $3 million or $5 million cash safety net to cushion the blow. For Powers, negotiating with herself has its privileges."
Again the response is quite obvious and simple: You ignore the size of her holding. Sure, she will be cushioned to the extent of $3 or $5 million, but that will be very small comfort to her huge loss of about $100,000,000 million dollars. so I would say her interests are still very much aligned with the investor (being the largest share holder).
You complain: "Northwest Bio priced the $15 million April equity raise at $6.60 per share, so Tuesday's deal was done at a 31% discount to that last equity raise."
Again the response is obvious, that is the current market price and 3rd party has no interest in negotiating a higher value than that when dealing with a co who needs the money and has the upper hand in the negotiations.
Finally, why Adam do you almost never make a direct frontal attack on the merits of the science involved. Your attacks are on ethics, procedure, lack of released info implying impropriety, preferential share price for LP. You twist the words of the company to suit your agenda but never get to the key point - the merits of the science. These are the fundamentals the will govern the success of the trials and of this investment - not whether LP is getting a better deal (who is taking on tremendous risk) than the rest of us. What on Earth makes you so sure that the trials will fail in the face of all the good news so far. Even you can not call the news release so far as bad news. You make the assertion in your rule that small caps fail - clearly even if that is true more often than not, there are certainly many exceptions to that rule - this is one of them. Furthermore, if you look at trials in general you will find that large cap trials often fail as well so even the bald assertion does not make sense or you would bet against all biotech companies doing trials. So that rule really gets you nowhere - it is a mere slogan for your assertion of failure when it suits your agenda.
U.S. FDA Accepts IDE Submission by Cerus Making the INTERCEPT Blood System Available to Address Chikungunya and Dengue Blood Safety Risks
The shorts are smarter than that. They relax when the overall market is up and don't try to fight that - too expensive. But on days when the overall market is down they pile on and try to drive the price down even further - like eg on a 1.5% down day for the market they pile on and drive NWBO down 5% when it is easy to do on top of the market momentum.
But it is all for naught. In the long run the fundamentals will govern and we will have a huge winner. They may make a few pennies now but they better cover before the news starts to roll - then it will be too late for them with something like 12 million shares shorted!
How do they know how many shares are sold on margin? How do they keep track of that? I doubt that all the brokers report how much margin they have allowed to a central book keeper of some sort.
I don't like to pump a stock but I am long and I saw a major opportunity to buy more at a price I thought I would never see again so I bought a lot more today. Nearly doubled my recent purchases today at this bargain basement price. Thanks for your shares shorty. Now to wait for news!!
This too is wrong! this will not be covered by gov. insurance as in Germany. Patients will have to pay on their own or use any private insurance they have that might cover it.
Poppycock! The UK rules in PIM (2) require that a showing be made of likely efficacy with loser rules governing the showing. But they DO NOT ONLY require a showing of safety! the rule follows:
The medicinal product is likely to offer major advantage over methods currently used in the UK.
The Applicant should submit preliminary evidence, based on non-clinical and clinical data, indicating
that the advantage and magnitude of effect claimed for the product is predicted to be of significant
relevance to the patient and will address their unmet need. A well-argued evaluation of the likelihood of
achievement of the product’s claims should be provided, based on the totality of information available at
the time of designation. Depending on the product, this may include, but not restricted to, direct or
indirect comparison to existing therapies/ standard of care in the UK, or evidence of a potential
treatment effect in the aetiology of the condition or similar efficacy but better overall tolerability
compared to existing therapies.
I sincerely wish you were right but then she would have said "in a couple of weeks" not "in the fall." That's how I read it anyway.
I am definitely not bashing as I have a ton of NWBO and seeing this dip as an opportunity to load up on more. Nevertheless, during her presentation at Rodman & Renshaw conf she twice said we should look forward to sometime in the fall for news on german negotiations and updates. This has basically put out a sign on the front door "Do not expect news before the fall" So for the next couple of months the shorts are going to be free to do their thing without fear of an NR the next day that might hurt them. So I expect either sideways or slight downward movement for the next several weeks depending on how much buying is generated by the absurdly low prices. However, at some point in the fall there will be an even larger short squeeze so shorty beware - you are living on borrowed time. But Linda - that was definitely a faut pas. You gave the shorts a freebie for the next several weeks where they can ply their trade without too much fear.
How does that work out? Will there be two classes of shares? One at pre-split worth 15 times (and voting power) of the post -split shares? If not then there will be a huge amount of authorized shares without need of sh approval - dangerous!
PLI went from $1.08 to $1.56 in the last few weeks. According to the analysts covering PLI, the near term target price is between $2.50 and $3.59. the longer term picture has people guessing very large numbers if the fibrosis treatment proves out in clinic. But even if it does not and that fails it will still be worth many multiples of today's price due to the several orphan drugs extracted from the plasma that are very high prob of success and due to the basic protein seperation and fracctionation business that is already bring in revenues to the co..
PLI touched $1.60 today on the strength of the Roche/Intermune deal. The PLI drug promises to beat Perfinidone and so look very promising with such a low market cap! Furthermore PLI is NOT a one trick pony like ITMN is. They have a large pipeline of very profitable orphan drugs that are plasma derived - their specialty. Multibagger on the way. Btw over the last year it already was a multibagger for those who were in it from the begining - but still has a huge future. Check it out on the TSX in Canada.