More that should have been in the original post.
The imgn trial had only 17 patients of which 8 responded. NWBO had 21 patients (method B) of which 17 responded! Furthermore the patients in the NWBO trial where all stage 4 cancers that failed all previous attempts at treatment and had very little time left to live. SEVENTEEN of the 21 are still alive up to 18 months and the length of PFS continues with every day! these were the sickest of the sick before they met NWBO.
sorry I clicked send to quickly. NOY should have been NOT. Also I mentioned that IMGN was a trial in one cancer indication, but I intended to but forgot to mention that NWBO PI was basically a trial for ALL solid tumors - many more indications - more $$$$ upon success)
Both companies reported very good PI results with the NWBO superior imo, yet IMGN (supported by TheStreet) received a large reward on the market up $5.70 (63.5%) whereas NWBO is up a mere $0.20 (2.5%) with superior data IMO (of course famously NOY supported by AF and TheStreet). IMGN reported a 53% response in their PI (in but a single cancer indication) while NWBO reported (for method B, treating method A cohort as a built in control) that 17 out of 21 patients have not progressed up to 18 months and those years of PFS will continue to grow into the future. the disparity is totally unbelievable. I think this shows the extent some people invest like sheep and follow the fashion touted in the press without checking the basic info themselves, and probably more significant that the MMs and large hedge and venture funds can easily control the market in the smaller, lesser volume, stocks to their hearts content. I can see no other reason for this huge mind boggling differnce between NWBO and IMGN in today's market. NWBO should have popped to at least $12-15 today. Instead it gained 19-20 cents!
your projections for the NWBO SP a year or two down the road are way too low. The SP imo will be $400-600 range and when most of the solid cancer indication go commercial some years later, the SP will imo be several thousand dollars per share. Lift off starts tomorrow and I doubt AF will be able to put a lid on it this time! It will be every short for himself covering as quickly as possible in a rush to beat the short squeeze sure to come.
Doubt that highly. The results was poorer t han expected and with a smaller percentage of survivors than in the previous trial.
Compare this result to that announced by NWBO on Saturday at ASCO. I doubt the market will appreciate the meager result od CLDX as compared to that of NWBO! We will see on Monday who is up and who is down (and I do not mean the Bronx and the Battery :-)
I would also note that 8 of the 12 who either died or progressed in 4 months or less probably had their immuno system severly damaged or destroyed and were unable to mount a proper immune defense under any conditions. Keep in mind that these were stage 4 cancers that failed all previous treatment which means they were subjected to multiple nuking in chemo and/or radiation that may have severley damaged the immune system so there was very little or nothing to be activated by the DCs. This probably accounts for some or many of the nonresponders imo.
The visual effect of the 27 patients all colored green surviving from 9 to 18 months is spectcular. these are patients in vaarious solid cancers in stage 4 who have very little time left. Also consider that in PII they will not use Method A so that will eliminate many of the red and yellow line from the PII cohort and will be even more intensly green. Ditto for the number of injections, and the other treatment factors that will improve in PII. Do not forget that these are the worst of th worst cases that basically have been given up on by the current SOC and relegated to palliative care for the most part. Then throw in quality of life and no side effects and you have a huge winner. any shorts who have a brain left in their head will run to cover on Monday because there is a huge short squeeze coming after these results confirm the Direct Vaccine works very well. NOTE also that Dr. Bosch gave a another presentation just last week on May 21 at the New York Academy of Sciences and this slide #7 was not included (even though they had the data already and would have essentially been pretty much the same) as they wisely held it back for presentation at ASCO to a much wider audience and much greater impact. It is visually so impressive and conveys so very well how effective the vaccine is.
I see a huge increase to SP coming on Monday and in the subsequent weeks we could easily see $50-60 or more when the shorts finally concede they are on the losing side of things here. Ultimately when this gets to the commercial stage NWBO will be in the thousands of dollars per share and LP will challenge Bill Gates for the richest person on the globe.
Actually the ignorance among many oncologists on the new research is mind boggling. About a year ago, I had occasion to be seated next to an oncologist (radiology was his specialty) I new just in passing at an affair we both attended. To make small talk I tried to ask him his opinion on NWBO and immunotherapy in general. To my surprise, he swore by radiology and admitted he knew nothing about immunotherapy research in cancer and would be surprised if it work. I suggested he better start reading or he will be out of a job by the end of the decade!
I was truly astounded at the ignorance among those who should be ( at least reading about) at the leading edge of cancer research among proffessionals..
And lots of time to develop a technology that is the leader in its field, so we could now all reap the benefits and well ahead of all the johnny come lately's.
Frankly, with so many catalysts most of which can happen on ANY given day, all of which would be a game changer and cause huge and very rapid increase in the SP, I don'y know how the shorts sleep through the night. I imagine most of them are turning grey in their efforts to drop the NWBO SP. So far they have been in control, but only to the extent that without any news they have managed to cap the increase in the $7.50 to $9.00 range but not able to bring about a deep cut in SP which most of the shorts desperately need. So I am happy to wait patiently - time is on the long's side as we relentlessly continue to approach the catalysts. In the mean time I continue to see the work of the shorts as a buying opportunity for shares that will be many multiples higher in the future - so thank you shorts, keep up the good work.
I am a long and strongly believe that NWBO will eventually succeed. However I must concede that the shorts have so far managed to keep the SP of NWBO muuuch lower than it should be at this point. By now I truly believed we would be selling at similar SP to Juno or Kite. Any comparison make NWBO look very good. But the shorts have so far mounted a very effective campaign to limit the rise of NWBO SP. Any cursory examination of the typical NWBO trading over the last several months will show steady slow climb from small retail buyers and most movement south is initiated by a large spike in volume from the orchestrated shorting by the large shorts.
So I ask how long can the shorts continue to succeed at this? At some point one or several good catalysts will assert themselves and become irefutable. so long as this does not happen the shorts seem to have enough money to control the field as big money is at stake. What will this catalyst be and how soon will it happen? this is the key question.
Will it be an aggreement with Germany on payments?
Will it be the UK moving forward with the next stage of PIM?
Will it be Woodford (or others) making large investments or better yet starting to buy on the open market in a big way?
Will there be a positive readout from the current DCVAX Direct trials?
Will there be an early halt in the PIII trial in Glio at the interim?
Will there be a positive readout at the PIII trial endpoints?
Will there be some partnering news with huge $$$ up front?
The real question is how long will we have to wait for t he first of these to happen so that the hold of the shorts will be broken?