Nobody is going to scrap a multi-hundred million dollar rig anytime soon. No one in the entire offshore drilling industry. They will hang onto to hope that the slide in oil price is just a 12-18 month temporary phenomenon. Plus you have all the new build in the yards. The industry will be plagued by excess supply for 5-10 years like it was in the late 1980s-early1990s. Awilco will likely grind forward at day rates that eventually fall below $200K per day. They won't die, just circle the ocean like zombies generating modest positive cash flow---not enough to offer much of a real dividend. Oil boom cycles last 5-10 years, so do oil bust cycles. There will be a few good dividend payments left, but the stock price will also begin to discount the end of that moving forward. You could recoup as much as 40% of your stock purchase price today over the next year in dividends, but the total return (dividends plus capital loss) will likely be about a wash. Mr. Market tends to price stocks at their fair value unless they are really undiscovered.
It's dead. Bury it. The CEO has ruined any possible chance at a fair valuation in the public market. The company should be sold or taken private. No new institutional money is going to go near this. It will be a $3 stock for the next decade.
Good to see executive management putting the pedal to the metal the last week of the year while other executives at other companies are on year-end vacation.
Lots of talk about this fiscal year being better than the last, not that the hurdle is that high given an abysmal fiscal 2014 plagued by a quarterly loss in the first quarter, timing differences, invoice delays, installation delays. But okay, then what happens? The Chief Operating Officer quits. Watch what they do, not what they say. The guy quit right in the middle of a rebound year? The same guy that dumped half his stock just this Spring? Watch what they do, not what they say.
This stock has probably ruined vacation plans, college funds and retirement accounts of small investors. It's toxic. Take it private or sell it because it's just hurting everyone involved with it.
For you to have any confidence in those two wells producing significant income you need oil price to stop falling, and the company needs to get the second well approved to resume operations. That has not happened yet as far as I can surmise. So much of business success is about timing. A couple years earlier on those wells and the company would have been seeing a lot of cash flow. But it is not really their fault totally, as it took forever to get them approved and launched ( almost a couple years as I recall).
Sorry, edit: it appears the market is valuing them as worthless, or close to it. My single point projection for WTI low is $26.89/bbl., and nat gas under $2.00, but not much under $2.00. At those prices wells of all types will begin to be shut-in and the price will stabilize. Biggest risk now is a Russian currency collapse and default (not a Sovereign default, but a default on most foreign business obligations). I see the ruble with a two handle ultimately.
not a second earlier. This may be the single best tax loss sale of the year. The injection wells are worthless. The CEO has the reverse Midas touch.
Hope the new CFO knows something about currency hedging with his company deriving half or more of its business overseas. Also, wonder how much they might spend on Executive Search for a new COO? These guys are keeping the search industry in business all by themselves. And why would anyone retire or leave (a CEO, a CFO and a COO have all left within about the last twelve months and cashed in significant portions of their stock holdings) when the company has the hottest, sexiest new 3D laser metrology product this side of Adriana Lima sporting the new line of lingerie for Victoria's Secret? If the company were truly about to print serious coin and bottom line results w/Helix, wouldn't you want to wait another 12-24 months to see how it unfolds, reap the glory and the stock options, or at least hold on to your stock? Okay, you have to draw the line somewhere on retirement perhaps--but Helix has been over 15 years in development and you bolt right on the cusp of its introduction to the market? Does that make any sense to anyone? I don't get it.
You cannot tell if it is speculative, protective, or just an attempt to capture a small premium w/little risk of the stock being put to you. All you can say is that it is an out-sized bet on an out -of -the money lower strike price. Buying protection has been the way to go all year on this one until proven otherwise with the continual earnings misses, but this seems like a real big bet, because it is placed well below the current stock price hovering around $10, and is an option expiration less than four months away. The COO leaving rather than staying to ride a "hot" product introduction of which he was presumably in charge (e.g.Helix) may have spooked someone. You'd have to go back and see if the put volume jumped around the time of the COO's announced resignation of December 2. Recall the former CEO and CFO both retired around or shortly after the time that real disappointing first fiscal quarter 2014 was announced back in November 2013, reflecting "timing differences' in revenue recognition and associated costs--late vendor invoices as I recall. No one likes to see executives leave, retire or whatever. It broaches too many questions. Protect the downside makes sense rather than trying to guess what is happening at a company if you are not comfortable with the transparency or the results are wildly unpredictable quarter to quarter.
That's over 2,500 minutes of somebody wanting to dump this garbage stock before the end of the year. Over 2,500 minutes of someone wanting to get out every single minute of one of the worst Nasdaq listed stock this year.
Book value may need to be written down significantly, by about two-thirds according to Mr. Market. Of course Mr. Market could be wrong, he usually is about one time out of one thousand.
It's gonna explode soon, I'll agree w/that. Watching this for a year has been like watching monkeys playing w/sticks. They have no clue and have completely bungled the opportunity afforded them. And yet they get awarded more stock options for nary a contribution to the bottom line. Great work if you can get it. It's a very small operation selling to the big bad auto company bullies. Guess which side has the leverage?
yep. looks like some "little guy" cleared out a position at the open, precisely 12 seconds after the open on lots of 1,000 and 500 shares at $8.34 per share. Must have been thinking "get me out, please Lord get me out at any price I don't care, just get me out of this. And still the major funds sit by and do nothing, content to keep getting kicked in the chops w/a horrible investment and horribly managed company. Oh well, it's not their money.