Maybe a toe in the water between $11-$12.50 as tax loss selling picks up steam. I'm guessing there is still a lot of stock for sale, a whole lot. When your credibility is shot, there is little left. There is a hefty discount applied for undercutting your own shareholders as this parent company did. No one wants to invest along side them now. The next tranche is only a matter of time and price.
It will be truly epic. Lower oil price. Stronger dollar. Scottish independence is possible as is a new tax regime on the oil industry, insider selling, contact extension nervousness, downside momentum and forced liquidation, anger at the parent company. Soft Semi market that could begin in 2016 and last for years.
It's not often you see the parent company stick it to their own shareholder base the way these greedy ..... did.
Of course I do. I am asking about modeling for the year beginning in 2016. I'm not worried about the dividend for 2015, that is solid. Point is no one is buying this for one year of forward dividend payments. They want to know what the sustainable dividend rate will be (beyond 2015). Hence the question in the heading; anyone model 2016 w/Wilhunter idle, because that is the risk if the option does not get picked up and they cannot find anyone else to lease the rig to despite having a year to try and find someone. The rig market in 2016 could be very soft. In past soft cycles for drilling, contractors have been known to lease rigs at cash flow break-even just to keep the rig "warm" and crews intact but generating no free cash flow at all. That will not be an issue w/the WilPhoenix, but we will have to wait and see w/the Wilhunter. Some investors are not waiting, because investors are risk averse. Or put another way--they do not like uncertainty.
Just curious what the cash flow would look like under a worst case scenario assuming the option does not get picked up by hess and another operator cannot be found. Compare that w/ the best case scenario and assign your probabilities to suit your taste. Smart to #$%$ the risk before #$%$sing the reward, but you have to do both.
Still feels very heavy. Shareholders are incensed and voting w/their feet. No hurry to buy this. This purge will be epic.
Stock price is truth; everyone has their own opinion of what is going on and that is fair. The stock price tells the story in the final analysis, as it always does.
Oh opti, I do think the Euro reaches parity w/the U.S, dollar within 12-18 months, and that some semis will go idle during 2016. But those are forecasts, really unknowns to some extent. What we do know here for sure is that the parent company has no inhibition about dumping a large chunk of its stock and undercutting its own shareholders to raise money.The small shareholder is less than an afterthought.
This selling is based on dislike for the parent company's action and a desire to teach them a lesson they won't forget. They could be hamstrung in future public market endeavors. Their name may be equivalent to a several multiple point decrease from fair value on anything they touch for fear they will sell out the position from underneath their own shareholder base, chunks at a time.
In dividends? I suppose it depends on what you think the sustainable dividend rate really is? But it will be ,for many buyers of this stock, a number of years--at least a few. May be better to take the capital loss on the stock to offset gains elsewhere in one's portfolio in a good year for the stock market and ease the pain of the taxes you will have to pay on those dividends already received this year. But everyone's situation is different.
Maybe time to say bye bye to them? They blow every single quarter, I mean every single quarter. About one or two more and they are cooked. The former auditors knew that.
Well, pink sheets, concentrated ownership of a foreign company motivated by a self-interested parent. Like they say, buyer beware. The only way they get close to salvaging anything now is to pursue sale of the company. They put themselves in this position and shafted all their shareholders in the process. But to your question, it absolutely feels like the other shoe is about to drop? Nobody is closer to the situation that the guys that just dumped the stock.
Look a dollar lower than that. The momentum here is like a freight train, or avalanche, of very angry sellers, very very angry.
Wilhelmsen and QVT sold for a reason. Wonder if that option to extend the wilhunter contract will be picked up? Wonder if it will even work in 2016? Semi market is going to be soft for several years.