Good for you. I didn't sell that much only a much smaller percentage in the high $60's into the $70's.
Greed and fear, the old adage.
Well the whole new level press release is still here on Yahoo.
Unfortunately that component loss has hurt them. It seems nuts given they did $25M in Q4 but yesterday's Q was the 3rd best in the history of the company. The problem is we may not get a better one until 2015, although Q4 still may be better but it will be a horrible comp.
Oh well and FFIV's results were not exactly soft nor was their guidance, although RVBD's were.
and magically you never posted on a stock board before but here you are or you had posted but just said to yourself, let me create a new ID and ask questions.
If you're sincere simply listen to the conference call. The back half of the year won't be what it typically is which is the growth half, particularly in Q4. They lost a 1 of 2 components on their top customer's refresh cycle for one product. They stated they had another component in a new product which has now been pushed back to 2015 so any countering of that loss won't be seen. They've done $36.9M in the first half and are now only projecting $68M-$74M for the entire year which implies a lower to even 2nd half vs. the 1st half.
They do have some growth drivers in the pipeline and they expect growth in 2015.
Theirs also an investor presentation on their website which will probably updated shortly for yesterday's results. You probably want to review that.
I'm with you accept for the potential for a real overall slowdown. Depending on the severity of any slowdown it then becomes a matter of that new propellant being must have and overcoming other product slowdowns in a bad case scenario.
I agree, that's the frustration. Everything seemed to be lined up for them and they flubbed it off the tee.
I want to know why. Too much in the hopper?
They will not have their component in that product for this cycle, they would have to replace the other company's component. He was talking about other products from the customer within this refresh cycle.
The other part to the slowdown point and possible ending of the bull is the fact that the same client pushed out a product that SILC did win the component for until 2015, that would have at least partially offset the lost component revenue in the refresh loss.
I suggest you go to their website and ask any question you like. In most cases you probably won't get much of an answer but you can try. I just did with some questions I had.
Quite simply it svks. Execution here has always been very good and as I said it's easier to accept the slowdown and less so on the component miss.
I think the question I would have liked asked is whether they did not think this component was a priority vs. the offset new product component or just a snafu, i.e. why the miss? Why weren't they ready?
You say once in decades for the housing crises but 7 years before that we had the tech bubble. What's building now? It seems like a global easy money bubble. You can only print large amounts of easy money for so long and one would think there's a price to pay.
I think based on what they know they tried to make it a kitchen sink projection for the 2nd half. Chances are it won't be worse but could be better plus there should be better news flow before year end IMHO.
That said, hopefully nothing awful globally.
I totally agree. Do you know the answer? The component loss muddies the waters a bit.
They now have a 25% of market capitalization cash equivalents and marketable securities position and absolutely still have a very viable business. Many of us know that this got pretty close to cash in the worst of times.
So that is always a possibility in the worst of times.
If they execute 2015 will be better even with similar softness as long as they execute on what's in the hopper.
At 16.5 times bottom end guidance and 12.4 times ex cash for a company that I believe will ultimately grow, money will be coming in here when the dust settles unless we are going into the even greater recession.
The way he stated it is they didn't have it ready in time so I took that as they paid for their mistake. Bad job!
I think it is what they said, softness in the quarter which is acceptable and not having their component ready for a refresh cycle for 1 of 2 components for their largest customer which is a big mistake.
Add to that another product which they had a component in which the same customer pushed out to 2015 and any offset of the component loss will not exist in 2014.
The worst part is apparently this person went to multiple boards to do the same thing.
Unhappy person apparently.
Agreed schneider356, the Babe pointed at the stands 4 times at the plate and took a golden sombrero today.
It is what it is and we move on.
One loser here and it's you.
You created this ID today for the purpose of kicking people while they're down?
In a word, PATHETIC.
Karma will shine upon you if it already hasn't.
I plan on holding shares but I'll also be selling some. I know refreshes happen all the time as the CEO said but you have to be ready when with everything for your biggest customer. You can't miss a refresh.
They did and that's history which they will pay for going forward as will shareholders. They now need to make sure this doesn't happen again and that the component is ready for this customers other products.
I'm glad given the circumstances that they provided 2nd half guidance.
dach, I can't say I saw that component miss coming although the price action sure looked like more than a miss. Softness and a miss of a key customer component make it a double whammy.
I wish I sold more near the highs but will most likely be freeing up some shares soon until if and when the dust clears.
He was asked that specific question towards the end of the call and the answer was something like the dividend policy still exists. My takeaway was it's still in place until it isn't.
There's really no reason for them to change it since even within the policy they can decide to pay out nothing since it states they an pay up to 50% of operating profits I believe and there is n minimum amount.
Basically two thing went against them here, they saw overall softness in the quarter across their customers but they also weren't ready for their client with the one component they lost. You can't blame them for the first but you can certainly blame them for not having their component that they lost ready for refresh.
This was obviously being priced for a miss, some softness but not for this necessarily. I'm disappointed they lost this component on this product and they are actually projecting a negative growth year at the mid point of $71M.
Not that anyone wants to hear it but the CEO projected a five year $200M revenue within reach and a 22% compound growth rate.
It's actually less than that since if you add in long term marketable securities they have $7.41 per fully diluted share in cash but the market looks forward and if it's slowdown city that won't matter.