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Fortinet Inc. Message Board

hapihammer 144 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 2, 2015 1:10 PM Member since: Sep 1, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Talk about a deal have changed to other talk

    by arborite2 Jul 2, 2015 1:05 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 2, 2015 1:10 PM Flag

    Yes, I was wondering the same thing. YELP was exploring putting itself up for sale, it's options which helped keep the stock from falling for a while.

    Something to think about since it's hard to imagine this CEO wanting to step aside for another CEO.

    Why sell?

  • Reply to

    Thank You

    by golongbrowns28 Jul 1, 2015 10:36 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 2, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    FYI if you missed it today from The Street:

    "Finally, investors may want to consider ExOne, a maker of 3-D printers, whose stock has fallen 32% in the first half of 2015, as the company has missed Wall Street's earnings estimates for nine straight quarters.

    Must Read: Three ETFs Billionaire Ray Dalio Loves and Why You Should, Too

    Still, in the next five years, the company's earnings are projected to increase at an annual rate of 40%. That suggests that if or when the 3-D-printing industry takes off, ExOne may emerge as a leader. The company recently announced that it has qualified six new metals that are compatible with its direct line of 3-D printers, which gives its customers more control of what kinds of materials consumers can print objects with.

    That can be the kind of advantage it needs to separate itself from its competitors such as Stratasys (SSYS) and 3D Systems (DDD). While ExOne's lack of execution remains a concern, its average analyst 12-month price target of $13 is an almost 20% gain from the current level. I wouldn't recommend diving head-first into these shares, however. But for the second half of 2015, playing contrarian with a small position may be rewarding."

  • Reply to

    Thank You

    by golongbrowns28 Jul 1, 2015 10:36 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 1, 2015 3:00 PM Flag

    The IFs are a little harder to believe since these guys have missed their own estimates every single time since I've followed them.

    Secondly, are things getting better globally? I'm not sure about that and these guys surely are dependent on a lot outside of this country.

    The best positive is that service revenue has grown very well. I would hope that's a decent indication of near term sales.

  • Reply to

    New Seeking Alpha Article on SILC

    by long_not_short_13 Apr 29, 2015 3:21 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 1, 2015 12:58 PM Flag

    Yup. Certainly not protected in any way and may even be the opposite.

    The market overall looks ill. Sure we may get a decent bounce rally bounce when Greece is resolved but the overall financial engineering by companies is growing old and stale.

  • Reply to

    Thank You

    by golongbrowns28 Jul 1, 2015 10:36 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 1, 2015 12:24 PM Flag

    Market risk plus company risk means it may or may not be.

    I see plenty of small stocks with decent fundies getting whacked so I'm not sure buying a bunch here at a market inflection point and choosing this sector is the right thing to do. Then again buy low and sell high is the idea so you never know.

    They say don't catch a falling knife but they also say it's very hard to buy at the bottom.

    Surely a tough market overall.

  • Reply to

    Thank You

    by golongbrowns28 Jul 1, 2015 10:36 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 1, 2015 11:03 AM Flag

    It's traded at a new all time low so you could be right.

    Of course, there have been better bargains after all the other 52 week lows and "everyone" is a bunch of bunk.

    There's price targets within a few dollars of here also.

    You also know that these analysts don't work for you right?

    There was a poster when this was closer to $20 that said this would be a $10 stock. While it hasn't gotten that low it has traded with a $10 handle today so whoever said that was dead on.

  • Reply to

    One can only hope

    by fanofstan Jun 30, 2015 1:59 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 1, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    I agree to some extent with what beermenow5 is saying with many stocks but I think most fail to realize that China is really not looking very good plus this Greece and PR thing is a more to go event in other Countries and States in the world over time.

    As far as XONE goes, these guys have been in denial all the way down. One would hope they will be right sooner rather than later. I do think forces tend to prey on weaknesses in the market and I really do wonder how much of that weakness is caused by such forces these days.

  • Reply to

    New Seeking Alpha Article on SILC

    by long_not_short_13 Apr 29, 2015 3:21 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 1, 2015 8:58 AM Flag

    FYI. That article came out on 6/11.

  • Reply to

    very positive news

    by beermenow5 Jun 25, 2015 4:39 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jun 29, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    Another 52 week low hit again today even though it only barely got below the last one.

    Stocks with strong fundies got crushed also.

    Even though it's painful I hope the market finally corrects and not a lot worse than that but we;ll see soon enough.

  • Reply to

    very positive news

    by beermenow5 Jun 25, 2015 4:39 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jun 29, 2015 1:34 PM Flag

    Absolutely brutal market today and probably a very volatile week with Greece's referendum not happening until Saturday and tiny Puerto Rico adding to the mix with debts they can't pay. Isn't this a precursor of our entire system which is built on more and more debt while politicians are politicians and often just continue blowing smoke

    Add in China markets in a volatile correction which by definition is close to a bear market keeping in mind that their markets were up well over 100% in the last 12 months.

    This is holding up well for the time being but it's hard to judge many stocks as the majority are getting whacked pretty bad.

    If looking to add have your buy points in mind but leave yourself room to operate.

    FYI. The Dow Transports appear to be at a 8-9 month low, maybe this finally matters?

  • Reply to

    very positive news

    by beermenow5 Jun 25, 2015 4:39 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jun 27, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    The reported short interest on the Nasdaq site for 6/15/15 was 2.982M shares which is lower than at any time in what's been reported in the last 12 months data points. I'm not sure that's good or bad news considering the share price. Conversely since overall trading volume is down overall and in this stock the days to cover is still 20.7 days which has only been higher in the last 3 reported bi-monthly numbers in the last year. So kind of a mixed bag but some shorts are trying not to be too greedy and have quietly exited but there are still enough in to cause a squeeze if there is ever a reason for one.

    I was also looking at the tangible book value of DDD, SSYS, VJET and XONE and the two larger companies have much higher Price/ Tangible Book values as they of course are swimming in Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets from all of their acquisitions. I don't recall VJETs actual TB but it was comparable to XONE's, at least in the same ball park.

    XONE's TB stood at $6.96 at the end of Q1, so their P/TB is about 1.8 which is certainly reasonable IF this is a growth stock. The problem is cash burns like last quarter bring this value down.

    Not sure if a bottom has been made in the sector. I'm thinking not but looking for an inflection point but would gladly give up xy% of gains for solid evidence of sustainable growth.

    I still say many here would take a nice 100% premium buyout and run but not sure about the potential of that to occur.

    Good luck.

  • Reply to

    very positive news

    by beermenow5 Jun 25, 2015 4:39 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jun 25, 2015 10:01 PM Flag

    I'm sure they will continue to come out with better iterations but that costs money too.

    What they need is the "interest" in said machines to turn into Purchase Orders and sales sooner rather than later otherwise it's just more negative cash flow and future debt and/or dilution. The $150M potential offering is hopefully more of a rainy day funding otherwise that's a good part of the current market cap, meaning it will eat into shareholder equity unless it is not tapped or used for an aquisition(s) (which could be good or bad).

  • Reply to

    Sal, what's going on?

    by jserper Jun 25, 2015 12:15 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jun 25, 2015 5:40 PM Flag

    Don't kid yourself this guy will most likely be long gone by then.

  • Reply to

    Sal, what's going on?

    by jserper Jun 25, 2015 12:15 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jun 25, 2015 5:39 PM Flag

    Him holding the stock as a long term investor proves he isn't a real investor while you follow quick pumps makes you a real investor?

    I don't think so.

    Congrats on following JBEM as apparently he's made you and others lots of scratch but let's not say that makes you a real investor.

    With that said keep doing it if it works because at some point it won't. Make the money while you can.

  • Reply to

    very positive news

    by beermenow5 Jun 25, 2015 4:39 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jun 25, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    Is that propaganda or ? :-) At least he is looking for an inflection point with his HOLD and $13 price target.

    I just looked it up and they had positive comments on all 3 although at least that comment was about a new machine. It's all about orders but maybe strong service revenue is a good sign.

    Good luck.

  • hapihammer hapihammer Jun 25, 2015 3:46 PM Flag

    Sounds like they are covering their tracks. If it goes down he said sell. If it goes up to $15 that's his price target. He's covered unless it rockets, although a 21%+ move is pretty good.

    Perhaps their full research piece explained better but most of these are generally pumps to move a stock one way or the other.

  • Reply to

    the media is so bought out

    by beermenow5 Jun 24, 2015 10:51 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jun 25, 2015 11:56 AM Flag

    I assume you are not talking simply about this sector or any one stock.

    People talk their book and perhaps they pay others to talk their talk for them. It wouldn't be terribly surprising.

  • Reply to

    funds will be accumulating

    by beermenow5 Jun 18, 2015 9:01 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jun 24, 2015 6:59 PM Flag

    The risk/reward might be quite good here if you believe certain people in the company don't have their head up their behind.

    At least this held up way better than the sector today and is still most of 80 cents above it's 52 week low.

  • Reply to

    Down again

    by smitty4901 Jun 23, 2015 3:37 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jun 24, 2015 6:43 PM Flag

    I'm sure there are other previous wins that should be ramping but it's all about the sector and whether any ramp may make up for any sector slow down.

    SILC's management generally states that they will grow faster than their sector so there is certainly dependence. The CEO felt somewhat confident about the full year guidance but it was based on client forecasts which can easily change. Hopefully there was some margin of safety but slowdowns happen. We'll see soon enough.

    On an overall market basis financial engineering is how many companies make their numbers. In the long run I'm glad outside of giving back to shareholders with an annual dividend SILC does not participate in this nonsense.

    The overall market is in it's 7th year of a bull run in what's been a fairly anemic recovery no matter what BS the talking heads try to sell.

    Good luck.

  • hapihammer hapihammer Jun 24, 2015 6:19 PM Flag

    That's not the point. it may very well be a fantastic investment even after Jbem's rec. drove the run-up and huge volume today.

    Don't kid yourself into thinking that is not what drove today's move.

    Good luck.

FTNT
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