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Fortinet Inc. Message Board

hapihammer 401 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 32 minutes ago Member since: Sep 1, 1998
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  • Reply to

    More insider selling

    by drjhnathan 4 hours ago
    hapihammer hapihammer 1 hour 32 minutes ago Flag

    This sector is being run up like many are today in the MOMOs in particular. NOW reports after the close but when those algos are set they go until they reverse it seems. The RSI here is only in the 50s.

  • hapihammer hapihammer 18 hours ago Flag

    He did say that but the FUD, if that's what it winds up being, is talking about low yields and if there were poor yields that cost GTAT and thus us money.

    What the truth is we'll find out after 4 more trading days.

  • Reply to

    Flying rat's #$%$

    by hindenburgdown78 20 hours ago
    hapihammer hapihammer 19 hours ago Flag

    You're assuming it's sandbagged just like people made assumptions after Q1 that wound up being wrong. I think given the fact they lost a component on refresh and a product component was pushed out to 2015 they did the right thing.

    The stock would most likely not be any better off if this piece of news was added to the release, plus you've followed the stock long enough to know that in the past there has been good news released 1-3 weeks after earnings many times.

    As far as earnings let's say they do $76M for the year as a sandbag as you say and they may very well be mid range of their guidance.

    Do you think they would be better off having a fairly flat third quarter and negative growth in Q4 while saying nothing or telling us what's going on.

    They made the decision to say here's what's going on and why we will see at best a flat year.

    Smart move. If you don't trust them sell. Frankly I don't think your post makes a tiny bit of sense but that's me.

    That said now that they have given second half guidance they may be asked for guidance for 1st Q 2015 which quite likely will still be flat to negative and they will most like balk or say here is when we may see growth again.

  • Reply to

    Friday is the Deadline

    by louquag167 Jul 29, 2014 3:21 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 29, 2014 3:34 PM Flag

    Why do you consider Friday the deadline? Earnings aren't released until after hours Monday and the call isn't until Tuesday AM.

  • hapihammer hapihammer Jul 29, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    You can look at it any way you want but I think anything over $1M always was number 1 (they never gave out a dollar figure for that, i.e. what is considered significant) and secondly Coleto Creek is quite significant and was even briefly brought up in the Q&A as a potential significant product/component category for them. They are trying to show that the component miss will be replaced and then some hopefully over time.

  • Reply to

    It's Alive!

    by larrykudlow2003 Jul 29, 2014 9:34 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 29, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    and if your posted wishes came through from a few days ago, that might have well been on the way.

    Let's see if the shares still remain under pressure.

    I believe they will be but a turnaround would be nice one of these days. Hopefully this component miss is a temporary setback on what has been and will be a successful business model. Needless to say I'm rooting for Intel and certainly it's Coleto Creek architecture. :-)

  • Reply to

    Is SILC in danger of shutting down?

    by viking2boot Jul 28, 2014 10:31 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 29, 2014 7:07 AM Flag

    OK, but your math is still off.

  • hapihammer hapihammer Jul 28, 2014 5:00 PM Flag

    Small caps and micro caps are getting destroyed.

    The short term direction of GTAT could certainly be hurt if TG states that guidance is being lowered for 2014 and it will be worse if the further out look is tempered.

    If however 2014 guidance is confirmed, along with consistent to more positive outlook for 2015, 2016 then the stock should get some support.

    Of course if the overall market is in the tank than who knows but we'll see soon enough.

  • Reply to

    Is SILC in danger of shutting down?

    by viking2boot Jul 28, 2014 10:31 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 28, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    It very well could be but a lot of what you post seems to be emotion based and full of conjecture IMHO.

    It's always easy to look backwards and say what we all wished we did or what the signs were and there have been a few.

    If you believe in single data points you combined with other activity as jd said the offering might have been the clue. Then certainly that combined with a slower 1st quarter would have been the sell signal.

    As I said earlier the worst thing that I see out of all this is them admitting to losing and/or missing the date on a component.

    The overall market has yet to correct yet small caps, i.e. the Russell 2000 has already started to turn. We may or may not be close to an inflection point.

    2000-2001, 2007-2008 does the power of 7 come into play again 2014-2015? Who knows but no market wide correction in as long as we've gone is a little scary.

  • Reply to

    Is SILC in danger of shutting down?

    by viking2boot Jul 28, 2014 10:31 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 28, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    How exactly did you do that considering if you bought ever single one of your shares at the all time high you still wouldn't be down 75%?

    Most long termers are still well above water here so I'm not sure what your goal is.

    Good luck with whatever you're trying to sell.

  • Reply to

    How likely will it breach $300 by Aug 16th?

    by alai288 Jul 27, 2014 2:48 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 27, 2014 4:42 PM Flag

    The range they gave was for operating losses of $410M-$810M, that equates to Negative $.89 - Negative $1.76 before any tax implications.

    They are well on their way to a $1/share loss in a single quarter.

    I guess all there free cash flow that excludes certain items will bail them out. ;-)

    It's more a matter of when their next debt offering will be and how quietly that will be done.

  • hapihammer hapihammer Jul 27, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    Price is meaningless. You need to look at Market capitalization.

  • Reply to

    It is an 80 BLN revenue ops, not a small one!

    by jagan1961 Jul 27, 2014 8:24 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 27, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    Keep in mind that I doubt AMZN's 3rd qtr estimates have been completely updated yet. Look for that estimate to drop closer toward NEGATIVE one dollar.

  • Reply to

    SILC Valuation....

    by sahmdars Jul 24, 2014 1:06 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 27, 2014 9:10 AM Flag


  • Reply to

    SILC Valuation....

    by sahmdars Jul 24, 2014 1:06 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 27, 2014 9:04 AM Flag

    I think there's a very good chance it will with a correction being the best case. Timing, who knows but you don't run printing presses non stop around the world with everything lining up magically well with no hiccups along the way.

    The Russell 2000 has been starting to break down for a second time, will the larger cap indexes continue to diverge or will the Russell recover or the SPY follow?

    This week there's lots of data and the Fed meeting where they are expected to taper from $35B to $25B in buying Treasuries and mortgage backed securities and we get 2nd Quarter GDP on Wednesday. It should be a positive read vs the negative 2.9% in Q1 but lately these reads are most positive in the initial numbers and then the revisions have been down.

    I guess the problem is everybody is expecting a correction and as a result we haven't gotten it but that scares me more than no correction at all because the longer we go without one the more harsh it may be when it comes at least theoretically.

    Don't get me wrong things are getting better in the economy but it's a slow grind vs. what the stock market has done.

    As far as ZZ, yes he has been quite wise in his buying so if he were selling heavily all the way down that would be telling, wouldn't it?

    Not trying to be a Debbie Downer just trying to be a realist. Sometimes the reality your dealt is not the one you were expecting. The softness I can understand but the face value of them not being ready with a component or being replaced by a competitor seems like the larger reason for the large drop here.

    That said, if I owned no shares I would be dipping my foot in the pool but since I'm still overweight here I am not doing that. If I wasn't overweight but had a modest position I would be looking for signs of capitulation in the shares.

    Good luck. I'm sure we could use some here.

  • Reply to

    Closed $10 above low

    by mytoessmell Jul 25, 2014 7:35 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 26, 2014 8:57 AM Flag

    I had said awhile back that Q3 would be a very challenging quarter for them. The ebooks accounting change charade that artificially boosted up revenue last Q3 was most likely 100% in effect last Q3, so now they are aggressively spending to buy more revenue.

    I know the trading algos have predicted up the next 3 months. Let's see how it goes. Does this rally as Alibaba launches in September?

    I guess the other question is will their ne any changes in the state tax laws as far as collecting them. I read somewhere that will be discussed this week. It would be a shame if it was because then you simply cripple bricks and mortar companies but with are corrupt system who knows.

  • hapihammer hapihammer Jul 26, 2014 8:50 AM Flag

    That's the problem with it. They have put other stores out of business because of this free pass. How is that good for the overall economy.

    They may just be starting to get their own treatment. Not there yet but if they continue down this path eventually the stock will be heavily discounted. Really discounted isn't the right word, more like heading towards fair value, but if shares remain controlled than the games continue.

  • Reply to

    SILC Valuation....

    by sahmdars Jul 24, 2014 1:06 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 26, 2014 8:43 AM Flag

    Weren't they fairly open during the housing crises to say that they had no visibility and that they had no idea when they would have it?

    They didn't give out forecasts other than essentially saying things did not look good.

    They were still trying to lure in tier ones back then and they did not want to part with any cash as a result. As you said ZZ did the buying. Unfortunately I'm wondering how much selling ZZ has done in the last 120 days?

    That shelf registration might be the difference. Maybe they do want to try and put a floor on the stock since it involves purchasing power.

    All conjecture but so far no floor and if the market starts to really sell off it's hard to imagine this not going lower.

  • Reply to

    Higher Lows with Higher Highs

    by electrojolt01 Jul 25, 2014 10:23 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 25, 2014 7:24 PM Flag

    tom If you are the same guy I remember you used to post when the stock hit $17 in 2011 and you talked a lot nonsense than including talking out of both sides of your mouth about not selling a share and then talking about trades.

    You can trade but don't sell us a bag of $4it as you trade in and out like you used to.

    I just pray that you are not the maloika that I thought you were.


    I speak the truth at least the way I see it. Please prove me wrong come 8/4 and 8/5.

  • Reply to

    CRM , PUMP and DUMP today's action

    by jaldarshan13 Jul 25, 2014 12:59 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Jul 25, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    I tried to jump the gun and start a new short as it turned down but they pulled it away from me.

    Bought some PSQ instead even though it's a big down day for the markets.

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