fanofstan, I wasn't aware of Mr. Rockwell's past successes but it makes sense since he appears to be loaded.
He definitely seems like he's in it for the long haul and has a boatload of shares so he has a lot to lose and it's not like he has sold shares so that's a positive.
Was there any questions about a cash raise coming?
If not, the analysts aren't doing their job.
Oh yeah, a ton of cash and what do you mean "he" this is a public company. The cash balance decreased by $11.4M from $36.2M to $24.8M.
Inventory increased by $4.8M so that could be a positive or a point in time but if you do the math on steady state they will need more cash in 2-3 quarters.
Now if they get a big boost in the second half they may push this back a little but tell me why a cash raise isn't coming.
How are you? I haven't paid any close attention to VJET but it seems they have been the closest to doing what they say recently in terms of forecasts.
If you are the same guy I know the locals on this board were quite cross with you but you can't please everybody.
Tangible book value didn't fall as much as it could have.
It was $7.00 coming into the quarter and exited the quarter at $6.64.
Any nuggets on the conference call? I'll read in on SA or listen later.
I meant deferred revenue.
Rockwell's whole spiel should be started with "ifs and buts and candies and nuts".
recognized revenue is the proper number to use because derred revenue will exist at year end also and puts them at $51M based on 30/70 split. If rockwell changes the split to 25/75 you are talking $61.3M.
If he says up you can be sure the direction is down.
Thems the facts until proven otherwise.
As of now a whopping 3283 shares traded after hours according to Nasdaq. Currently at $8.65 totally meaningless. the majority of the shares traded at 49 and just over $9.
fanofstan, It could be but on a much smaller scale people said the same thing about this quarter. You included I believe.
I don't think the overhang of the $150M potential offering/insurance policy is a good thing while cash is dropping at a rapid rate.
If the CEO was right about his 30%/70% split first half of the year vs second half then you are looking at full year revenue of almost $51M which would be well below forecast.
The good news is he can't forecast for $4it or he doesn't want to come clean. One of the two and I'm not sure which.
The other good news is you never know the stock may react favorably only because of the large short position although i would not bank on it. I do think a cash raise may be questioned on the call.
The article is matter of fact and not a bash at all the way i read it.
It's showing as $8.50 right now in after but that's meaningless as just looking at the chart after hours it looks like 2000 shares or less and the actual bid and ask are currently showing as $8.65 and $9 respectively.
Here's the problem I have with these guys and their forecasting. it's very simple, if there's a lag in revenue recognition how about you model for that.
There's always some BS excuse. you may not think this is a BS excuse but they just used it last quarter.
Again, model something in for a lag. It shouldn't be that complicated accept I'm sure they don't want to tank their stock since at the current rate they will be out of cash in 2-3 quarters. That $150M potential offering may work it's way into the conversation tomorrow or by next quarter if the negative cash flow remains.
At first blush the quarter looks poor mostly due to revenue recognition but it seems like the same old song.
Cash and shareholder equity are dropping significantly.
That said who knows how the market will react since they delivered 12 machines but again service revenue is the lead here, not machine sales.
I may not catch the call tomorrow morning but I will read the transcript or listen to the replay.
Traded out of my second lot. I know this is beaten down but this was a small trade for me so I'll take my 3.6% total gain in just under a week and wish you guys well with the earnings report.
I plan on reading it of course and either listening to the call tomorrow morning or reading the transcript later in the day.
Good luck investors and traders. Obviously in this case I was a trader only.
So you are predicting that they actually meet or beat revenue revenue estimates and you think they will raise their full year estimates?
I doubt it or let me say if they do the first it's still highly unlikely they will do the second since I believe they provided a range of $58M-$66M full year. Now maybe they narrow that guidance but I doubt they guide up.
If they did there's no reason to believe there would be a pullback other than the overall market which although up today is on shaky footing overall.
Sold the higher lot and will most likely let the lower lot ride, at least for now.
I hope these guys do the unexpected for a change whether I remain long into the report or not.
Oh, I guess nobody did although the entire sector is smoking today.
This is up nicely for now on moderate volume.
I'm playing with a small position with cautious money right now.
I bought two small lots at $9.18 and $8.66. I could exit the whole small amount for a profit now which would be the most prudent thing to do but I may just exit one of the lots as opposed to sitting put.
This is the first I've looked at SUNE and it's over my head because clearly you have/had value investors here in Einhorn and Cooperman but the debt here is absolutely enormous. I guess it's one of those investments that is supposed to pay off handsomely down the line.
The quick drop is concerning and it makes you wonder what exactly is going on behind the scenes. Could be absolutely nothing but I've been burnt before by these companies with no tangible book value.
As far as SCTY, I'm not a believer. When a company starts to point you to metrics such as retained value, I'm very skeptical. It's a financing company that may or may not be the future. yes, i know they purchased a solar panel company less than 2 years ago but a big part of their business is suckering people into long term leases which ultimately benefit SCTY.
I noticed you replied but I can't see your response so you either erased it or Yahoo blocked your response.
If you're angry with me, I don't understand why you would be.
If the results are decent than we can both be happy (not holding my breath).
If the trend continues and they are lousy then I guess you can be mad at me instead of directing your anger where it belongs.
The analysts have adjusted their estimates to the low end of CEO Rockwell's full year estimate of $58M-$66M with estimates at $58.1M.
Given the 1st half/2nd half guidance of 30%/70% and the very weak first quarter implies a quarter of $10.646M for this past quarter with estimates for $11.1M.
I think anything above $10M while maintaining guidance would be a positive.
If history is a guide they come in at a lower number and if much lower the CEO may actually lower full year guidance in which case the stock flushes.
If much lower and he maintains guidance no one will believe him anyway.
I may regret taking a small position for a bounce.