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Lululemon Athletica Inc. Message Board

hapihammer 779 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 21, 2014 3:39 PM Member since: Sep 1, 1998
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  • Reply to

    I dunno boys,

    by davidyab Apr 4, 2014 5:07 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Apr 7, 2014 9:15 AM Flag

    But topper, the real question is when will he be convicted. I tend to think at minimum he is extremely unethical but then again since we are talking about Wall Street there has to be a scvmbag curve I suppose.

  • Reply to

    Can i sue Oppenheimer if NFLX falls?

    by filmtarget Apr 7, 2014 8:49 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Apr 7, 2014 9:09 AM Flag

    below $358 should read below $458.

    Good luck.

  • Reply to

    Can i sue Oppenheimer if NFLX falls?

    by filmtarget Apr 7, 2014 8:49 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Apr 7, 2014 9:07 AM Flag

    :-) Well you can try but you'll waste your time and money. Lots of "stocks" being defended today after drops. The futures are down which sets up for a potential reversal day. Of course that doesn't mean it will be one.

    So without being able to read the detail of their note I have read about the price drop and current level vs where it was. This is akin to what you read on many of these boards on MOMO stocks. It's basically like saying if you liked it at $458, you'll love it at $337. You cannot successfully sue for a common sense statement like that, it's simply numbers/math.

    Of course, we all understand that 337 is about 26.4% below $358 and math says the risk/reward is better but it doesn't address intrinsic value.

    I'd be more likely to short the stock here than buy it long but let the bounce play out. I guess Oppenheimer didn't want this dropping below it's 200DMA. I do still think this Q's report will be pretty decent in terms of subs growth. Not sure about projections for some growth. EPS report will be meaningless, accounting can make it look great or lousy. Pay attention to cash spend, cash flows etc. Race to the top or race to the bottom as time goes on?

    Time and data is the only thing that will answer this question.

    Good luck.

  • hapihammer hapihammer Apr 6, 2014 10:43 PM Flag

    BS. Very low price? Relative to what pumper. The valuation is still to the moon just look at both the trailing P/S and the forward P/S. this could easily ultimately land below where it opened on it's IPO.

  • hapihammer hapihammer Apr 6, 2014 10:33 PM Flag

    Not totally accurate. The Tale of 2 Nasdaq stocks on the MOMO side were looking very 2000ish up until recently. Now they just look incredibly overvalued but the good news is bearish to bullish sentiment is still slightly bullish. No real fear yet if you can call that good news.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by garolou22 Apr 6, 2014 8:39 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Apr 6, 2014 10:29 PM Flag

    You looking at $7.40 as profits is silly. Look at NOPAT. Look at free cash flow. It's not growing fast enough vs. the valuation. Will it get faster or slower going forward.

  • Reply to

    Meh, held 60. I guess a small victory.

    by johnberchick Apr 4, 2014 4:22 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Apr 6, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    I meant 12 trading days it is.
    .
    The market is closed on 4/18, Good Friday.

  • Reply to

    looking

    by raggwead Apr 5, 2014 2:32 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Apr 6, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    I agree. I have profited here on the short side and in puts but I don't like to see people lose money.I am long.short the market so believe me I have gotten whacked at times in puts and shorts the last year or so.

    I just try to tell the truth and when I see pumpers like that stopthattrain fool who even admitted to trading with his group, you know he was here to just entice retail money to chase this stock up. Total scvmbag 100%.

    Games have been played with plenty of stocks on the way up, this being one of them.

    I want to see if all this fuss over HFT algos works it's way down a whole other level, with it being used as a tool to game stocks up along with institutions and possibly insiders worst case.

    You will get some wild swings here but this is still a sell on valuation. A 50% retrace gets this to the low 70's at which point you should sell if it can even get that high.

    Only a reversal or taper of the taper will help these MOMOs anytime soon.

    Sell the strength.

    Just remember in the future that valuation always eventually matters.

  • Reply to

    WORKDAY executives integrity loss.

    by nonoyr Apr 4, 2014 8:08 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Apr 6, 2014 12:21 PM Flag

    Thanks but I have no intention of doing that. I am long/short based on valuation, but also willing to invest when I see a clear roadmap and some semblance of sanity but while I have taken my lumps on many shorts over the last 12+ months I am very happy and blessed with my overall return.

    This isn't the best short in the market by any stretch, FEYE was and I did and am doing well there but I do not see WDAY as a panacea.

    I know they are probably paying for fast growth but even NON GAAP, no profits for the next two years.

    When will they show GAAP profits?

    Good luck. I'm sure this will bounce but it has plenty of room to fall also.

  • hapihammer hapihammer Apr 6, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    mingo2915,

    Amazon is the stock and sometime in 2014 is the year it TANKS.

    The short term savior for the stock would be a taper or reversal of the taper.

    Why?:

    1. Price discovery underway.
    2. Net negative cash conversion cycle games are starting to be realized by the masses.
    3. Cash position is not great vs. Big boy competition who are much better capitalized. IBM, MSFT, AAPL, GOOG to name a few.
    4. Desperately trying to grow revenue above 20% but less leverage because cash is being burned through. Barring more high $$ stuff to sell, revenue growth will be under 20% this year.
    5. HFT algo skimming now documented on 60 Minutes and through Charles Schwab strong statement, saying it is scamming the individual investor and is a cancer on the markets. Trust in the markets anyone?
    6. I wonder if this HFT scratching the surface report is all there is to these HFT's? Is it possible that they have been used as a tool in collusive manipulation and a transfer of wealth? Might some folks be working on connecting the dots and might certain stocks be named in such accusations. Look up tale of 2 Nasdaqs and take a guess which stocks these might be?
    7. You may get some counter trend big bounces here but I would be selling and not buying. Earnings, barring games, won't be very good and I doubt, barring more games, that outlook will be any good either. That said if the market is still in a bad mood, any collusive pumps will be met with a sell the rally here. A 50% retrace from Friday's low to the top gets you to about the 361ish. Again, barring a taper of the taper or a reversal of the taper. Sell the rally IMHO.

    Good luck.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by garolou22 Apr 6, 2014 8:39 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Apr 6, 2014 11:50 AM Flag

    It's funny you should mention Amazon. Price discovery may well be underway there. Watch what they say and do closely as they could be the lynch pin for the MOMOs this year.

    Of course we'll have countertrend decent size bounces but barring a tapering of the taper, I'm not sure the trading games will fully continue in AMZN this year.

    Amazon is the stock and (sometime in) 2014 is the year IT TANKS.

    Valuation never matters until it does but eventually it always matters.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by garolou22 Apr 6, 2014 8:39 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Apr 6, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    Oops it looks like I don't see my original post that I was correcting above and I don't feel like typing it again but long story short, I think the pullback from $458 has been modest, currently stands at 26.35% based on Friday's close. I'm not a big technician but it looks like there is some support a little below here than $300ish and then around $250 and $200 ish.

    This has had a $405 run from $54 to 458, back to where it is now. The good news is it made a much higher high so I think the low will be a higher low but be sure eventually fundamentals will determine this and I'm not talking about accounting EPS.

    I think this could bounce on decent sub numbers and guidance on 4/21 but if the market is still tough in 2 weeks more focus will be put on the numbers underneath the covers.

    EPS is meaningless here. Look at David Trainer's NOPAT and his latest article on Seeking Alpha.

    There are better shorts out there and there has been and I am long/short and it has paid off very well in 2014.

    I don't plan on selling my Long Term longs until I see a fundamental reason to. I will still trade short term shares and/or calls/LEAPs in them.

    Make up your shopping list/target lists if you haven't already.

    If these guys ultimately fail and only have modest success, i.e. no great pricing power, no reversing of content costs and slowing growth look for it much, much lower. The fllor on the stock at that point would be a potential takeover at a premium that is lower than the current stock price.

    Good luck.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by garolou22 Apr 6, 2014 8:39 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Apr 6, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    Bunk garolou22. EPS is not profits when variability in accounting practices is fully allowed to exist. Look at David Trainer's NOPAT as a better indicator.

    NFLX may be a great long term investment from here but it's very, very, very hard for me to believe that with any conviction.

    If I saw convinced that NFLX had great pricing power and also great ability to control content costs I would be buying on a large dip from here.

    I have no reason to believe that.

    This could very well be a race to the bottom.

    We will see over time.

    Good luck and keep it real.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by garolou22 Apr 6, 2014 8:39 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Apr 6, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    $05 run = $405 run.

    It will be interesting to see what the market does over the next 2 weeks and then to see how much NFLX runs up on earnings.

    I have no position now but bought in and out of some puts Friday. I am overall long/short about 70%/30% and roughly 55%/45% considering puts leverage. I take some profits along the way because it is simply prudent.

    I have several long term longs that I don't currently plan on selling unless fundamentals dictate to do so. I also sometimes take long trading shares or LEAPS in my longs.

    For those that think the HFT algo manipulation upwards in the MOMOs was a joke, let's see if more information comes out on this in the coming weeks and months. I would not be at all surprised if at minimum accusations come out of HFT algos being used as a tool to game up certain stocks and/or ETFs.

    I have no concrete proof but I tend to believe that collusive trading involving the sell side crooks and the investment banking side and other parties could very well have been aided by HFT algos.

    Any remaining trust in the markets will be further shaken and that is not a good thing for any of us.

    Good luck.

  • Reply to

    Meh, held 60. I guess a small victory.

    by johnberchick Apr 4, 2014 4:22 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Apr 5, 2014 10:10 PM Flag

    I wasn't sure about that john. I thought it was possible but did not remember for sure.

    The less days until than the better because then we get new information.

    Thanks. 12 trading days is. Looking forward to it.

  • hapihammer hapihammer Apr 5, 2014 9:51 PM Flag

    You might get lucky on a short term bounce but if you do please get out.

    If you were short term trading without delving deep into the fundamentals the market eventually catches with that nonsense.

    Learn, not to do it especially if it's not with heavy risk capital.

    This is the classic example of a greater fool stock. The sky's always the limit and you even got in well off the high. That may save you a few dollars on a bounce but this stock and company is still extremely over valued.

    If you get a 50% fib retrace you might see it at the low $70's but that assumes this already bottomed and I would not bet on that.

    Remember, valuation always eventually matters.

  • Reply to

    Down 30% So Far

    by dizzybaker Apr 4, 2014 11:48 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Apr 5, 2014 9:40 PM Flag

    Cramer pumps are a fools game. You have to look underneath the covers and know the business and the valuation unless it's just a short term trade for you in which case you should just sell into any bounce.

    If you like it for the long term, do more research and average into it later, most likely at a lower price.

    Good luck.

  • Reply to

    WORKDAY executives integrity loss.

    by nonoyr Apr 4, 2014 8:08 AM
    hapihammer hapihammer Apr 5, 2014 9:37 PM Flag

    mattpco27, The problem with a stock that is still trading at over 30 times trailing sales and that clearly was in the MOMO camp is at what point is it cheap?

    Most sane people will tell you it never was. Therefore, where is the bottom?

    Trading games have been played on the way up. How much will the swing down be?

    That said it does seem like the high 70's area would be short term support so maybe a bounce and then what?

    Price discovery is underway.

    The Nasdaq looks like it may test the previous bounce of 3997ish and if that fails the 200DMA of roughly 3917 will be in play.

    The Dow and the S&P still appear to be on trend for now but that could change quickly.

    Best case this is just a rotation in the Tale of 2 Nasdaqs, which still won't be good for this stock.

    Good luck.

  • hapihammer hapihammer Apr 5, 2014 9:18 PM Flag

    It's another loss leader. A desperate company that needs to desperately grow revenues in order to continue the fake free cash flow game. Pay attention to the man behind the curtain. Price discovery has initiated here but there's much more to come. You may get counter trend bounces but if you're smart you'll sell into any major bounces.

  • Reply to

    Meh, held 60. I guess a small victory.

    by johnberchick Apr 4, 2014 4:22 PM
    hapihammer hapihammer Apr 4, 2014 7:11 PM Flag

    Is the market closed one day? Otherwise it's 13 but who's counting? :-)

    I am doing the same, holding all shares through earnings.

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