Batteries in general have been the bottleneck for alternative energy for the last few decades. While solar and much new technology has increased at a phenomenal rate in terms of cost and efficiency, battery technology has been the slowest to improve. Lithium-ion is currently pretty good as far as batteries go, but still flawed. They may survive 2000 charge cycles and still work at 80% initial capacity, but then they'll drop off suddenly like a cliff (like TSLA stock is likely to do any day now, incidentally). Good ones might get you 6-10 years. Good lead acid maybe as long as 10-12 years if maintained well, but of course they're not as light and efficient, though cheaper.
This is the problem with Musk's speculative proposed new battery factory. I mean I'm all for it, go for it! But let's be realistic. Even with massive scale it will be hard to improve efficiency/cost by much. Even a few percentage points will be a big improvement. It's been the problem with power storage for decades, and it will be solved with many incremental improvements over the coming decades as new technologies are researched and developed and costs gradually come down to being viable as actual products. Not just in a year or two from one new factory.
By the way, I'm running my computer that I'm typing this on, and my entire house from off-grid power from lead acid batteries charged with solar panels, so I'm somewhat intimately familiar with all this.
Until it stops going up. And corrects 20-40%. And all the retail longs who've been buying the last couple days because like you say, "It's going up" and they wanted in on the easy money, are left holding the bag.
How about Global Crossing? That was a good one. How'd it do? Or Worldcom? Or any number of the hundreds of others that didn't just drop far from their highs in 1999/2000, but went bankrupt completely, losing everything their long investors had.
Different brokers have different rules. Scottrade for example allows it in a margin account with just a $2000 minimum I believe.
I realize there might be ways to justify Tesla's current market cap with best case scenarios 20 years in the future But that should be many years down the line, after they've actually achieved some of the many incremental steps along the way. Not receive all that payoff in valuation today, when they've achieved so very little. This is like a backwards version of how venture capitalists work. They invest early on in a lot of different ventures knowing most will fail, but the one that does pay off pays off huge because they got in so early, to make it all worthwhile. Tesla longs today on the other hand, are buying into only one such ventures, but they're putting all their money into it now when it's already being valued at "best case in 10-20 years" numbers. Not like putting $1 in hoping to get a $1000 payoff later if it succeeds. It's putting $1000 in now because if everything works out perfectly, it will be worth that same $1000 way down the road. Totally backwards.
So we have this insane current one million dollars in valuation per car that they hope to sell in the coming year (35,000 cars, 35,000 million current market cap). I'm pretty sure they're not making a million dollars off each $100,000 car they sell. Yeah, it's actually closer to zero.
You could rationally argue this stock is worth buying at maybe $50 now, on the possibility that if all goes fantastic it will be worth $250 in 10 years. But to pay that $250 for it today is utter insanity.
If you think the big guys don't and aren't going to make money shorting the coming down swings, you have another thing coming. Manipulation is manipulation. Not biased towards up or down. It will be swift and brutal, just like the recent upswing has been for shorts.
Thanks for the rare well thought out post full of good, informative information. Good to see amidst the general cesspool of postings on here. You articulate well exactly the way I try to trade.
Yeah, the advertising aside, good points. I am well aware of this. That is precisely how I managed to be up 500% last year. I've been doing this a long time and know how the game works. I just never thought this TSLA stock would go _this_ high before correcting. 230 was kind of my nightmare worst case scenario (I'm short at about 210 avg). So yeah, I hear you, really. Just amazed at how far the manipulation manages to go, and how gullible people can continue to be, day after day of being fed this bs. I mean, with bids at near $260 a share, that means there are actual people who are willing to pay that for this stock right now. Who are these people? Sure some of it is forced margin call covering and such, but certainly not all. There are actual people willing to buy this stock at this insane valuation today. The _extreme_ insanity of that mindset is what I have a hard time understanding. Yeah there will be some insanity, some wild swings up and down, and those are opportunities to profit long and short, as you're saying. But _this_ far out of whack, is hard to believe.
Basically I was just too far ahead of the curve on this one, as I often am. There are way more lemmings than I expect there to be. Meanwhile I sold my GTAT for a great profit at $10.60 (to short more TSLA), only to watch it continue to rise to $14.60, while I've watched TSLA rise all the way past $200, $220, and now to where it is today, another several billions in market cap even higher to above $250 for no real reason besides lemmings buying into Musk's continual sales pitch, while actually delivering so very little. Should have gone on vacation for two weeks, not looked at anything, just held my GTAT until today, sold it another 40% higher, and not started shorting TSLA until 250+. But who knew it was going to go so far.. Well, live and learn, as they say.
Up 12 premarket for no reason? Battery factory dream talk old news. Musk is a great modern day snake oil salesman, I'll give him that. He can sell this stock well. I just give people too much credit to be able to see through his endless self-promoting bs. Meanwhile Tesla sales (you know, the actual car that they sell a few of once in a while) already peaked and have been dropping for about the last year in the US. But what's logic to rabid longs. Going to hurt them bad when this corrects, just like it's been hurting us shorts these last few days. Morgan Stanley and the big banks are the only ones who make out in the long run. The big boys win, the little guys pay. The game is rigged. Tax the poor to fund the rich.
From the looks of the tape today, we've seen the peak. Profit takers will over power any buyers from here on out. But what do I know, only been doing this for 17 years. Never thought it would see over 230 at the most.
Yeah, it reads like an article from The Onion. Would be funny if it weren't actually real, manipulating real people money. Criminal, is what it should be.
And the market cap is actuallyactually really about 5 billion higher because of other allotted shares.. Utter insanity. Not seen like this since 1999.
I hope for your sake you are joking. Or that by "purchase" you actually mean you sold short. If you really went long here you will be #$%$ on and thrown away like toilet paper by the big boys.
Well I was up 500% last year, so I'm still pretty happy. Today sucks, sure, but it will be a joy to watch it when it inevitably comes crashing back down soon.
30,600 million now. Another fifth of a billion in the last few minutes. It should now be obvious the real product Musk is selling.. This stock. Nothing new to it, he's just the latest. Saw them all come and go in the tech bubble 1999.
I'd say it's the longs who have balls, though that's not the word I'd use. It's like they are holding onto a bunch of $20 bills, when they could sell them for $100 a piece today, because they're hoping some sucker is going to pay $120 for them tomorrow. I'd call that insane. But I guess it takes balls.