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Vantage Drilling Company Message Board

happyhorn52 401 posts  |  Last Activity: 17 hours ago Member since: May 22, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Next Weeks Prediction

    by johnnyboynj 18 hours ago
    happyhorn52 happyhorn52 17 hours ago Flag

    I'm looking at the number of drilling rigs working vs drilling rigs stacked. Currently we have 700 US Land Rigs drilling and 1,000 US Land Rigs stacked. The 1,000 stacked rigs have been idle for close to one year so inventory and production should start declining by year end. If you look at offshore rigs you see the same thing. 35%-40% of the rigs are stacked.

    The thing that has kept production from falling is Saudi excess capacity. They have been adding production over the last year which lowers their excess capacity. They are running out of excess capacity.

  • Reply to

    Next Weeks Prediction

    by johnnyboynj 18 hours ago
    happyhorn52 happyhorn52 17 hours ago Flag

    Oil going up not down! Expect brent between $60-$65 by year end unless Saudi finds more production to flood the market.

  • happyhorn52 happyhorn52 18 hours ago Flag

    Brent closed at $47.56 today. The stock is moving up and down with oil.

  • NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. (AP) — An elementary school teacher has been allowed to keep his job even though he was late for work 111 times over a two-year period.

    In a decision filed Aug. 19, an arbitrator rejected an attempt by the Roosevelt Elementary School to fire 15-year veteran Arnold Anderson from his $90,000-a-year job, saying he was entitled to progressive discipline.

    Anderson was late 46 times in the most recent school year through March 20 and 65 times in the previous school year, the arbitrator said. But the arbitrator criticized Anderson's claim that the quality of his teaching outweighed his tardiness.

    He relied on "micro-quibbles of a few unpersuasive explanations, with a macro-default position that even when he is late he nevertheless delivers a superb educational experience to his grateful students," the arbitrator wrote.

  • Reply to

    Anyone who would admit to being....

    by susan_stockwell Aug 26, 2015 4:18 AM
    happyhorn52 happyhorn52 Aug 26, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    I couldn't help but notice that Will headed to San Francisco as soon as he entered the country.

  • happyhorn52 happyhorn52 Aug 25, 2015 7:23 PM Flag

    I seem to remember Son & tuttle mouthing off about tuttle being some sort of a Savant as the stock priced collapsed. Hopefully he now understands that the stock price was just moving down in step with the collapse in oil and that tuttle is more Grand Wizard than Savant.

  • happyhorn52 happyhorn52 Aug 24, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    These are they types of properties that EGY needs to acquire during this downturn.
    Fairly priced producing properties with high upside potential in a geographic area they are comfortable with.
    Hopefully we can find something like these but the right size.

  • happyhorn52 happyhorn52 Aug 22, 2015 9:16 PM Flag

    OK lets have a little competition! We let Tuttle and Will predict 3Q 2015 Earnings. Who ever comes closest to the reported number everyone votes for his-her candidate. Tuttle wins we "all" vote for Trump, Will wins we "all" vote for Bernie Sanders or Hillary.

  • happyhorn52 happyhorn52 Aug 22, 2015 7:04 PM Flag

    No room for a big drop. We are already priced for bankruptcy.

  • Reply to

    Lifting 170 - 621,239

    by happyhorn52 Aug 22, 2015 10:31 AM
    happyhorn52 happyhorn52 Aug 22, 2015 6:48 PM Flag

    Estimated loss of .30 is probably close to correct!

  • happyhorn52 happyhorn52 Aug 22, 2015 5:25 PM Flag

    3Q 2014 - 1,046,146 not 1.6 million bbls

  • Reply to

    Lifting 170 - 621,239

    by happyhorn52 Aug 22, 2015 10:31 AM
    happyhorn52 happyhorn52 Aug 22, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    In 1Q 2015 we lost 11 cents per share with liftings of 1,526,951 bbls and oil selling at $48.66 on average when you strip out the asset write down and the Kindele dry hole. 3Q 2015 looks to be a slightly worse quarter with a small asset write down and estimated liftings in the 1.6m bbl range with an average oil selling price around $44 bbl.

  • happyhorn52 by happyhorn52 Aug 22, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    New Lifting

  • Reply to

    Dollar/oil

    by gasnotoil Aug 21, 2015 9:13 PM
    happyhorn52 happyhorn52 Aug 21, 2015 10:30 PM Flag

    With WTI hoovering around $40 bbl and most of North American Frackers hedges expiring, it will be interesting to see if the banks extend more credit to keep the game going, or will we watch them fold their tents over the next 2-3 quarters.

  • Reply to

    I like the way Trump is calling a spade a spade.

    by jctuttle14 Aug 21, 2015 5:53 PM
    happyhorn52 happyhorn52 Aug 21, 2015 7:11 PM Flag

    If a pregnant mother can sneak into the country and just show up on the hospital's doorsteps, she is rewarded with free delivery and the child automatically becomes a citizen. She can then argue that she needs to stay in the country and care for the new citizen.

  • happyhorn52 happyhorn52 Aug 21, 2015 1:55 PM Flag

    PVA is one scary stock. They lost money in 2012 & 2013 when oil was running around $110 barrel, so with WTI in the low $40's and a large amount of expensive debt they will get crushed just like all the other North American Frackers. Just look at the cash on the balance sheet then look at their long term debt. No way they can service that much debt with oil in the low $40's. The only thing I like about the stock is proven reserves and hedges which will run out shortly.

    As of June 30, 2015, we had total debt of $1,287 million, consisting of $300 million principal amount of 7.25% senior unsecured notes due 2019, $775 million principal amount of 8.50% senior unsecured notes due 2020 and $212 million drawn under our revolving credit facility. Together with cash and equivalents of $4 million and net of letters of credit of $2 million, our financial liquidity was $215 million at June 30, 2015. Pro forma liquidity, assuming the closing of the previously announced sale of our East Texas assets would have been $260 million, assuming a $30 million decrease to our borrowing base related to the assets to be divested. Our 2015 capital expenditures are expected to range between $325 and $345 million and will be funded by current liquidity and operating cash flows.

    Preliminarily, and based on expected conditions in the crude oil market, specifically $55 to $60 per barrel WTI crude oil pricing, we expect to spend $200 to $250 million in capital expenditures during 2016, with fourth quarter 2016 oil production up to approximately 10% higher than the midpoint of fourth quarter 2015 oil production guidance. The 2016 preliminary capital budget will be funded by anticipated year‐end 2015 liquidity and 2016 cash flows from operating activities. 2015 estimates and 2016 preliminary estimates are meant to provide guidance only and are subject to revision as our operating environment changes.

  • Reply to

    No Debt!!

    by rjcrystal43 Aug 21, 2015 1:07 PM
    happyhorn52 happyhorn52 Aug 21, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    EGY is not much of a takeover target with 100% of their production coming from one small and dying field. If and when they start producing from onshore Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and Angola then a takeover becomes a high probability.

  • Reply to

    Next Week's WTI Price Prediction

    by johnnyboynj Aug 20, 2015 11:37 PM
    happyhorn52 happyhorn52 Aug 21, 2015 9:39 AM Flag

    That will kill the North Dakota Frackers as Bakken sells at about a $15 - $16 discount to WTI.

  • happyhorn52 by happyhorn52 Aug 21, 2015 8:42 AM Flag

    Tuttle did any of your accounts get exposed?

  • Last week reporters at the Wall Street Journal sat down and did some arithmetic. They looked at how much oil was selling for in the spring of 2014 (over $100 a barrel); looked at what it is selling for today (under $50); and concluded that if prices stay low for the next three years, the global oil industry and the countries it finances will be out $4.4 trillion in revenues. As these oil companies, nationalized and publically traded, will be producing roughly the same amount of oil in the next few years, the $4 trillion will have to come mostly out of profits or capital expenditures.

    This is where the problem for the future of the world’s oil supply comes in. The big oil companies, especially those that export much of their production, have been doing quite well in recent years. National oil companies have earned vast profits for their political masters. Publically traded ones have developed a tradition of paying out good dividends which they are loathe to cut.

    This leaves mostly capital expenditures on exploring for and producing more oil in coming years to take a dive as part of the $4 trillion revenue hit. Even if oil prices of $50 a barrel or less do not continue for the next three years, this still works out to a revenue drop of $1.5 trillion a year or about three times the planned capital expenditures of some 500 oil companies recently surveyed.

    The International Energy Agency just came out with a new forecast saying that while current oil prices have the demand for oil products increasing rapidly, there is still so much over-production that the oil glut is expected to last for another year or more before supply/demand comes back into balance. The return of Iran to unfettered production would not help matters.

    In looking at the next five years there are several trends or major issues that are likely to impact the supply and demand for oil. First is the recent price collapse that no longer makes it profitable to start projects to produce new oil, most of wh

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