I just think at this P/E ratio, LGF is a bargain. It had a very big move up last year, ilke a lot of growth stocks. Now those stocks are being hit and we're seeing a possible shift toward value. But many of the other growth stocks that are taking a beating now had ridiculous valuations -- in the 30's - 200's. The sell-off in LGF in the last couple of months has brought it down to below the S&P average P/E ratio, making it a value stock. With an ROE of 63% and EPS this year of 636%, if it falls much further it will only be in concert with an overall major correction. In a neutral market, imo, w/ a 15 P/E, it should hold or rise around current levels.
The markets are down today after testing highs. LGF like nearly all growth stocks today are taking a beating. Nothing particular to the company. FB is down almost 5% after good earnings.
After what I've been through with this stock, it will take a lot more than this to shake me out. ;-)
All leading stocks seem to be moving in concert today. Of the watch list I keep, LGF's move today is somewhere in the middle. Stocks like DATA & PANW are taking 7% losses. I've never traded options but am considering here.
I saw Divergent tonight and really enjoyed it. The reviews had me prepared for a bad film, and since action flicks aren't normally my thing (put me to sleep) I thought I might lose interest and leave halfway through. But my friend and I both liked it a lot and look forward to Insurgent.
The stock is extremely oversold. Hard not to believe there won't be a reversal coming soon -- if only because there's no one left to sell! ;-) The stochastics are down to 5!
Call the company. Their investor contact info is on their website. Ask them to issue a statement &/or buy back shares to support their shareholders and company.
I can't imagine it going much lower. There's no one left to sell. Institutions are out of this.
You do realize that HG opened in November, right? And that Divergent opened in March, a much softer month for box office? You're comparing apples and oranges. You're also ignoring their very successful television side, their new channel, EPIX, their library, and several other output deals announced in recent months.
This little "step-child" surpassed Paramount in box office revenues last year. While other studios are faltering, it is growing like mad. Other studios wished they could produce consistently great programming like Mad Men, Nurse Jackie, Weeds, Nashville. I'm not surprised by Icahn's attempt; it will no doubt be the target of takeovers in the future but I think it will hold its own. It's a leader in its group, and all leaders have been breaking down these past couple of weeks. It's just searching for a bottom. Who knows for sure what that will be, but i would generally think blasting a stock back to near year-ago levels would be -- if not THE bottom -- very close. It would be different if the company was faltering. But it's not -- just the opposite. At some point even chartists have to respect fundamentals.
This has been known for quite some time. The trades and investment sites have been reporting the blow by blow. If the fall is due to this, it perplexes me -- it suggests no one was doing their research.
If anything I expected Wall Street to reward LGF for fending off a hostile takeover any which way it could.
Icahn doesn't know how to run an entertainment company.
Ex-dividend is 3/27; stocks usually move near ex-div dates. That of course would not be the sole cause of this movement but it may be part of it.
I've noticed this stock usually runs up before a franchise film opening, then drops off precipitously (even Hunger Games 1), takes anywhere from 4-12 weeks to come back, then climbs higher.
In this case, because Divergent had bad reviews (totally irrelevant for the genre) many took the opportunity to sell earlier. My best guess is that part of this is the customary post-opening weekend drop. Part of it is people who grabbed their profits or cut their losses at yesterday's bounce this morning. Part of it may be big institutions or individuals shorting the stock. Part of it may be manipulation.
Whatever the case, it seems to me this stock is way oversold. It's p/e ratio is now down to 16; it's stochastics is a whopping 9.25%. It's now trading at last summer's prices and 12% down from its 50 dma.
It's hard to sit thru a shakeout like this if you're in long. But in my experience, when my stomach is churning and I head for the exit-- it usually means the stock will be coming back. There's nothing in this company's history or fundamentals to suggest that this move is justified.
Choices are to take your losses, hold, or buy the dip to lower your average cost. A value investor would do one of the latter two.
Anyone with takeover ambitions is one guess. Icahn was trying to take the company over and was thwarted by Feltheimer in a shrewd but not entirely above-board move. Or it could be a big institutional player driving the price down.
More importantly, March is a generally weak month for movie opens. The opens Divergent is being compared to were all November openings -- always much stronger box office. It's a coproduction with Summit, so LGF shares the cost. LGF makes its money back at 85kk, which it should reach this weekend. Domestic estimates are 115-150kk. That's before the film plays out its foreign and ancillary sales, which can more than double a movie's profit.
Even mega-flop Waterworld made its money back many times over with foreign and ancillary.
I agree, I think someone is manipulating this stock. Maybe more than one party, but this kind of action is too extreme to be anything else.