oops, you're correct. Q1earnings is poor, but valuation is also very low. they have prepared for this by cutting down line of credit. perhaps EPS=0.3 is as good as it gets for years to come?
without the cash, this stock is fairly valued, but if they do the buy back in Q2, then this stock will be worth 5-6x ebidta, or 10-12
cash is useless for debt free high R & D wasting tech company that never buys back shares, fortunately CALL isn't one of those
thanks for doing the comparison. LICT is controlled by Gabelli, potential conflict of interest/self dealing, OTEL doesn't have this issue
there are two ways for value to be realized IMHO.
1. renegotiate the covenants to pay a dividend.
2. completely renegotiate a new credit agreement
simply cucting cost and paying debt will not be enough, it will only tread water for years to come
hey Walk, do you estaimate EPS for 2015-2017?
if they just let the company drift in the same slow deleveraging strategy.
look at LXK, XRX, LEE, MNI, all are dying companies they trade at 6x ebitda or higher, and they do not have recurring revenue like OTEL
notice they also fell to about 3-4 ebitda in 2011-12, then rebounded
Our loss ratios in 2013 and 2014 were higher than historical averages, partly due to the introduction of new products and technology. The higher loss ratios reflect increased charge-offs from our higher dollar installment loan product due to the seasoning of our installment loan portfolio, together with our continued education and development as it relates to underwriting and customer credit quality for installment loan products. We expect the loss ratio in 2015 to improve over the rates in 2013 and 2014 but skew modestly higher than historical averages given our continued emphasis on new products and to implementation of technology to enhance the customer experience.
let say 2015 loss ration falls to 28%, 130 bassis pt improvement, and rev falls to 152M, all else being equal, EPS will rise to about 0.45, that pretty much assures the regular 0.20 dividend will be fully resumed, QCCO should rise to 4 again
management seems too conservative, altho 2014 cost cutting efforts actually came in 0.3M better than expected at 1.5M, heck why not, just deleverage so debt falls to below 80M then go for the big credit agreement at the last minute
thanks Walk for digging that up
I think since Micro/Nano cap value names are out of favor
any decline in reported Ebitda gets harsh punishment
so 2014 ebitda decline from 7.5-6.6M was not taken kindly
but if revenue can stablize then we might get a modestly rising EPS from falling interest payments, then the stock will move quickly in 2016