Nat gas at $2.64 today. Last quarter, ARP realized price was $1.20 less than that. Run the numbers on $1.40+ realized nat gas, doesn't even cover prod costs. Doesn't take a spread sheet. And they continue the distribution.
A spin on ETE's offer could be value for WPZ as well as WMB. Or SEP merging WPZ to SEP. PSX could easily do $60 value with stock, they are about the same price as when ETE made their offer. ETE's offer is $50ish.
Seems if the ETE bid was insufficient and nothing topped that, the announcement would be easy. Want to believe that they have competing offers and therefore the lengthy process. I'm still reading it as positive. Worst is they continue with their WPZ buyout, don't like that, own a bunch of it, and they believe the value will be higher than the ETE proposal a couple of years out. That's ok but they will need to show owners the numbers and assumptions, just saying trust me doesn't work, ETE laid out their numbers and it was accretive to WMB's WPZ scenario. I do think they will end up with someone else. The NE assets are prime real estate.
Jerry, I really felt yesterday that with US prod down from 9.7mmb/d to 9.3mmb/d, saw one projection that at the rate we're at, could be sub 8mmb/d end of next year. I am convinced we will get to a new equilibrium next year. Still kinda think $75 is as good a number as any. Doesn't seem the globe can supply demand with the US falling that much. The short term, that's a #$%$ shoot in my mind, could easily go back to $30s again but as we've seen, probably wouldn't stay there very long. Bigger issue for me now is China and who knows about that, not much transparency and lots of economic manipulation. It is what they say it is until its not. Today, I think energy is an easy bullish bet for a couple of years out. As for Williams, would be surprised is a deal is not struck. ETE, PSX, SE. I'd take anyone.
FWIW, I bought ATLS in the $5s, sold at $32, 500% gain, got shares of ARP spun off at $20 and sold them around $10. I can't complain about the ATLS gains, ARP shares were small piece of the investment, but Cohen had nothing to do with it, he just got lucky. The ATLS shares were in the $50s and he decided to sell at much lower prices. You'll have another chance to buy in the $2s. And you'll get to know his methods while you lose what you invested. He'll merge ATLS and ARP, cut the dist and the stock will be stuck at $2 forever, with no distribution, if your lucky.
PSX probably has the best currency to buy Williams, they are selling for around the same price when ETE made their offer. Would be a good combination.
Conoco Phillips cuts 10% of workforce and yet ARP pays out a third of it's equity value in distributions annually. Forget what Eddie says, look at the reality.
PWE has some fairly good assets. The prudent thing for ARP is to eliminate the distribution.
“Penn West’s dividend suspension may place some near-term pressure on the shares,” Gordon Tait, an analyst at BMO Nesbitt Burns, said in a research note. “However, we believe the company is taking appropriate action given the current commodity price environment.”
So do you hold a couple of more days to make a dime and lose 50 cents, the day after. While oil should stabilize next year, wouldn't be surprised to see another swoon to the $30s. The supply overhang is still there. This is a lousy short and long term bet.
Anyone notice that Williams hasn't announced dividend yet, 8/21 last year with record date of 9/09. Trying to read something into that, that the deal is close, can imagine a couple of scenarios. At $46, seems like a good speculation on a deal. Thinking about buying some on that premise, but am a lousy trader. I could see SE, ETE, KMI, PSX wanting the assets.
The e and p MLPs are primarily conventional reserve producers and third tier shale plays, they will disappear. Compare the high for EOG, $115ish and mid $70s now vs DNR high in the $30s and $3 now. DNR is an ok bet but is only going to do well in a high price environment $80 plus again vs $60, while some of the shales will do well at that lower price. EOG, PXD, OXY, CLR, FANG, Delaware producers. DNR needs a big recovery in oil price and the shales may or may not supply the globe at $60, doubtful, but if they do, DNR is mired in the single digits.
The reserves at current prices don't cover the debt. The value last year was $1.9 billion, oil at $95 and gas at $4.35. Today that's $45 and $2.70. Value is maybe $1.1 billion plus $300mm for the hedges. And debt is $1.5 billlion plus. And volumes are declining. The hedges get you $3 per unit. A bunch of gas here and around the globe, the ENI discovery in Egypt, 40 tcf and price in that market is $4. LNG may just keep US gas from cratering. And the dist coverage was in the 80% range last quarter. But investors do have Eddie, that discounts the $2 value further. How about a $1 option value on survival. If you get a $1.30 dist for two years plus option value of a dollar, value is $3.60. At least you get your money back. Not a great bet with gas in the $3s for the next several years.
DNR hires COO, guess they figured out they needed someone with a tech background. They need to jettison the CEO, cut the dividend and hunker down.
Hofmeister came up through human resources, not that savvy on operations. Not sure I would place much weight on what he says. Boone maybe and will see if $70 is the end of year number. Looks like it could be deferred to mid '16. We really don't have a play book for this recovery, OPEC is irrelevant, the swing production is short cycle shales and we really don't know how fast they can come back with a price cue. Still think DNR is a second tier asset compared to the shales. Will be part of the mix but not the low cost marginal supply. Do think in five years, it will be up multiples of $4 but so will a bunch of companies.
Just saw a blurb that Permian operators are bullish at $60 oil. The question is how much can the cores produce. Just saw an analysis that US prod could be 8mmb/d by end of next year. That and $50 oil, even $60 oil doesn't cut it if the US shales are the swing producer.
Book value for an e and p is worthless, works kinda for a bank. If you overpaid for all of your assets, the book value is inflated. The reserve value this year will be cut dramatically. ENI just found 20x the gas reserves that ARP owns, LNG may not do much for US gas. Reserves don't cover the debt at $3 gas.