Most don't see it but the whole group will go to zero distributions and will never recover. Those that don't bk will convert to c corps and will be forgotten. Just a matter of time. They don't work in the new price environment. $60 could be the oil price for years and $3 gas. Even LNG won't do much as the globe will probably be oversupplied.
He knows nothing about the company, the claims of bankruptcy. Some time ago, he mentioned that First Reserve had lost money and was going to sue the company, not likely as First Reserve is the General Partner. If he made any money, just dumb luck. Just put him on ignore, I'm sure we will hear that he was long when it goes up. Just a blow hard.
Saw a CS comment that in current interest rate environment, an MLP with no grow should be yielding 8.5%, at that yield, it's a $65 unit value. But there are lots of values in the MLP space right now. Clearly, $20 is too low. Interesting comments in the release today, that investors didn't understand that the dist would be adjusted by 10x, guess lots expected the dist to remain at 55 cents. I am always amazed at how little investors know about what they are investing in. I'm viewing it as an opp. Plus the coverage is skinny. And the macro price env is still on the mend. Saw another comment that the US will have to increase vols by a million bs in 17 and more in the years following. Not sure the equilibrium price but the midstream just need decent volume growth to do well. They seem to be valued assuming a shrinking sector.
Cooperman pushed for that on the last cc and Eddie pushed back, implying that the EF wells are a better use of capital. And Eddie needs the EF for his AGP but you are right buying back debt is no brainer for ARP alone but they need to support ATLS/AGP. The dist should have been eliminated. And merging, Cooperman and ATLS plus Cooperman, Carlyle and insiders own close to 40%. Not sure there are enough retail outside of the funds to even begin to influence the vote, and Cooperman owns both so he'll go along or sell out. Which he probably wishes he had done.
They are out of touch with reality, have been and still are. Not sure they are capable of getting there even with the facts staring them down. ARP's future is the EF and they are doing it primarily for ATLS, to save Eddie's AGP bet. ARP holders better hope that the wells are good, the first couple seemed mediocre at best, more like awful IPs for a $7mm dollar well. EOG is getting multiples of 500 b/d on their assets, some 4000kb/d. At 500b/d, not even sure they are profitable. The future doesn't look rosy.
He always makes money after the fact. Has been claiming bk for a while. Just ignore. This may be one of those values that is too good to be true. But they do need comm prices and volumes to increase. Probably a level dist for a couple of years at best. But how do you value $5.50, 20% at the high end, $28 and probably 12% on the high, $45. Not much downside unless the macro tanks. Don't think OPEC is going to give any relief, probably restate their market share goals.
You can't even divide the annual dist to get to the monthly and had a great scheme at $3.10, saying the dist was like bank interest. And it was almost eliminated, great call. 15/12 is what?
Buyers beware listening the bulls on this board. It's an option on survival, today I would bet they crater based on expected comm prices. A bump in oil today won't last.
Doubled up today, the dist is covered, mid 20% yield. Should trade in the mid $30s minimum with current dist. $5.50 and 12% gets you $45 value. $65An MLP with no growth should have a 8.5% yield, that's a $65 value.
Don't listen to the turkey and his imaginary gains. Yesterday he was going ride it to zero. And gone today.
The turkeys on this board don't need much. 7x normal volume yesterday, plenty of opp for shorts to cover. Or if more shorting, didn't have much effect. Only had 3.5 days short interest last report. They seem to focus on irrelevant issues. The reserves value doesn't cover the debt. Don't cover the debt after the hedge value. The equity value today is zip. Bonds are telling you that.
You clearly don't have the capacity to evaluate investments, your $3.10 buy, money in the bank.
15/12 is 1.25 cents. 1.25 is 1 1/4 cents. Not 1 1/5
With your $1.50 loss, it will take $1.50/.15, 10 years of dist to make up for the loss. That's 120 months. Who would listen to anything you have to say. And you're the leader of the good until cancelled campaign, how's that going for you.
The turkeys on this board, the topic is the higher math of 15cents/12, wow. No wonder they have lost their shirts. How did that $3.10 purchase work again with the old dist and the return was like money in the bank. Unit price may visit one before the selling is over. Let's see $1.50/$3 is a 50% loss, if you can't figure that one out. $1/$3, is a loss of of two thirds, or 67%. A 15 cent dist at 20% yield is 75 cents. That's another 50% loss from here. What's the loss at 5 cents unit price.
If you can't figure out what ARP is worth without a distribution, because it could be years, before it's increased, then you shouldn't be investing in it. If you consider the comparable MLPs, then a 20% yield is reasonable and that gets you a 75 cent unit price. Most here can't figure out what the reserves are worth. And the whole e and p MLP sector disappears.
I would bet they have around $50mm of capacity on the revolver at year end with capex and paying another $30 mm for the ATLS obligation on the EF assets. One rig in the EF could cost them $200 mm annually. If the EF doesn't work, it's all over.
Since there wer 3.5 days of short interest at last report and probably less 11/15 and it's going to trade 7x avg today, not sure your brilliant good until cancelled strategy is of much use. Obviously a bunch of yield holders sold today as if the 50% yield wasn't a subtle hint. Next step merger, not bullish imo. Drill partnerships, probably negative. OPEC help, not likely. Cold winter, guess that could be a possibility. You are left with a second tier e and p at best with questionable management in an unknown commodity environment.
OPEC comes out with continuing aggressive language, the Saudis aren't going to turn back now, winter doesn't cooperate, merges with ATLS, eliminates dist, EF wells continue to be mediocre, 50 cents is not out of the realm of possibility. Toss on tax loss selling for rest of year. 50 cents isn't a far fetched unit price.