I did buy back into MPO today, just think the value is more than $5, will find out what they did tomorrow, pm. Not sure I'm going to hold it long term but who knows. At the moment, comparing everything to PDCE and not much compares. SN looks like a good bet for the medium term. GDP looks like it could be a homerun if the TMS is a success, 300k acres for a $600mm market cap co would be big deal and 90% liquids. They do have ECA and HK there, two good drillers to lead the way. HK has it as a core now, but that changes from qtr to qtr but Wilson does know how to drill and develop a play, and they say it is similar to the EF which he should know. ECA has it as a core also, maybe the best asset outside of Canada.
I did buy some warrants on KMI, right at break even so far. And the Crosstex new co, merger with Devon, ENLC, someone said it is a must own midstream GP, that was Ruellia's pick way back when. Also have been buying CEQP another GP that should do well.
Seems everyone today was celebrating the 5 year run in the market and forecasting a top, it rarely happens when everyone thinks it's going downs. I think Cooperman is wrong, don't see why we couldn't see a 20x pe multiple again, with a 3% 10 hr T note, and zero money market, not unreasonable. It will be near the end when everyone stops talking about the end. Although the stocks I don't understand could bring it down some, the social media, Tesla's, biotech. Love it when I hear that Amazon never has to worry about making a profit on anything, they can just take market share in everything they do, shades of the 90s??? Hope you all are thawing out, it's mid 70s in No Texas today.
Don, I heard him, still pushing SD, $10 to $15, don't see it. But do think ATLS is a double from here. Probably one I'll never sell. I still think PDCE may be one of the best in the sector over the next couple of years. Wells Fargo upped target to high side $89, and probably not much value for the Utica in it. And they have an analyst meeting in April, will probably up guidance and lay out the potential in the Utica as well as the Wattenberg. The reserve report said 850 mm bs of potential. They have 2800 wells of potential in the Wattenberg. Won't have to tap even the revolver until later this year, so no debt issue and certainly no dilution issues either. I like BCEI but PDCE seems to have a lot more upside. And they have the benefit of Noble and Anadarko leading the drilling in the field.
That seemed like a good finish, curious why anyone would want to be in a short position at the moment, "positive" announcement tomorrow, guess it could be Crum's interpretation of positive, he seems to speak a slightly different language. Will be curious to see how straight forward the release is. EBITDA first $116mm, deal second. Probably down play the Miss operating results and highlight the Anadarko, LA won't be a distraction. Can't see more short positions being put on, so maybe a floor, the upside will depend on the "deal". Could completely surprise and be a lot more than is expected, a combination with another company, a private entity?
MPO looks a good value but PDCE, mentioned before that Wells moved target to high side $89, $61 today. And I would bet it doesn't include much value for the Utica. Plus guidance will most likely go up in April. And it's low debt and about the same EV as MPO. If MPO works after the report, 20% upside move, maybe, a trade to PDCE might be a good one. Oil staying above $100, the whole sector is undervalued.
That LA number would be an ok one, $600 would be my choice. Cooperman says SD is worth $10 to $15 per share, also likes ATLS, I own a bunch of that so hope he right, still think it is a double. If SD is worth SD is worth $10, so is MPO. Have to think about oil falling back to $90, no matter how right you are about the co, the macro has to cooperate.
Cooperman on CNBC soon, see if he flogging SD still, might help MPO some. SD does look like a solid pick, not much downside anymore, but others seem to have much more potential.
Makes sense that if they have a deal which involves disposition of reserves, that they have waited to announce the whole package. I would think the reserves number will look good, maybe 140mm at least, at that level $16 per b based on EV. Miss results are key it seems and the Anadarko, could be a positive surprise. What they get for LA or whatever they did sell will be the important data point. At $5, not sure the market is expecting much of anything. Also, had forgotten about the Hunton acreage, that has become an interesting play, not sure it fits with the other two.
Someone must be on the short side of the trade this morning. I don't think we get much "shocking" data, just something that shows a co worth more than $5 per share, how much is still up for debate. My guess is we finally get out of the $5s, would be unfortunate is oil price craters just as they get their stuff together. Will be interesting and much more fun if we print a $6 price on Wednesday, remember that Crum said the news is "positive", I'm betting he finally gets it right, he has misjudged the past few quarters. Place your bets.
Bought some shares under $5, just seems the value is greater than that. Will give Crum another chance, but like PDCE, GDP and SN better for their geology and depth of propects. Can't imagine with all of the underwhelming they've done in the past couple of months, that MPO won't get it mostly right tomorrow.
cbd, target raised to $82 to $89. Seems if oil price holds, buying PDCE for its April analyst day remains a good bet. MPO is a good bet at $5 and PDCE seems as good and definitely a much safer bet.
Wells Fargo increased its price target on PDC Energy after meeting with the company's management, and following the company's 2013 reserve update. The firm thinks the company has some of the best and most consistent Wattenberg acreage, and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.
jwo, I thought the sector would be stronger today. At $100 oil there are several cos that look like good values. On GDP if the TMS is the next hot play, it will be a great bet. Looked at SN and they like the play, say it's similar to the EF and they know the EF, same thing HK said. But it's going to take some time to play out, not sure GDP won't pull back. SN looks like maybe a better shorter term bet, low debt, high margins. And they have 40k acres of the TMS, they think at the high end of EURS, 800k bs, returns would be 100% plus. Would think that MPO at $5 is still a good bet for Tuesday. Seems with a reasonable plan, sale, JV, should move up from here. And WTI is cooperating today, seems that investors don't believe in longer term $100 oil. Being on the other side of that belief and right would be profitable bet. Today, I think SN would be a good buy, just a 6x mult on '14 ebitda gets you $40+ stock price. And 6x times could prove to be conservative.
This should help MPO today, would think, looks like the whole sector should have a good day. Seems if you want to own something in the group, could be a good time to buy full positions.
Stephens upgraded SandRidge Energy from Equal Weight to Overweight with a price target of $9.00.
Looks like SN could be a good bet at $100 oil, 76% of prod is oil.
Northland Capital Markets analyst Jared Lewis reiterated an Outperform rating on Sanchez Energy (NYSE: SN) and raised his price target from $34 to $37 as they anticipate a strong 2014.
Lewis said, "SN continues to be one of our top-picks for FY14 and with proved reserves increasing 178% during FY13 to end the year at 58.9 MMboe combined with improved well economics and continued production growth in FY14, we are increasing our Price Target to $37 (from $34) based on a 30% discount to our pre-tax NAV of $52.96. We also believe there is potential upside from positive 40-acre downspacing tests and from their undeveloped 40,000 net acres focused on the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale."
cnd, take a look at Sanchez, someone mentioned their TMS acreage. But on an ebitda basis looks cheap, will do high side 23kboe/d this year, $500mm ebitda, EV $2.250 B 4.5x for an oily co, 70% plus oil, $60 per barrel ebiitda margin vs low $40s for MPO. And they have a foothold in the TMS, not much value in the stock for that.
Hope it gets back to $6, but beyond that depends on what they announce next week. I'm not optimistic but could be wrong, just don't know.
Below is the blurb, think they are making a judgement close to what you have intimated that the best wells are drilled first, only logical. That's the beauty of e and p, you really don't know until you drill it out. 260's not bad but doesn't compare to the Permian, Niobrara, Utica... and more gassy.
we estimate roughly 50% of SD’s position is at or below 260mboe EUR based on presented maps (
Actually, I have you to thank for making money on MPO, some time ago, you said you thought it was a great trading stock and a questionable long term investment, something like that, and you have been right. The botched deal announcement and then tepid guidance kind of sealed it. I just don't think they can grow the production with $2 billion of debt/pref stk. And you have 30 mm shs that convert at $11 or whatever it is. Bottom line they have yet to do what they said they could do, the debt load will be lessened but they are going to give up potential or in the case of LA, 5k bs/d so the guidance is now 30k vs 35k. I used to think they could grow into the debt, but not anymore. So you reduce debt by $300mm, $1.7 b left, $2050mm/ 30k/d, that's still in the $70k per daily flowing b range, not really a bargain for a gassy company. They are imo not going to get a premium ebitda multiple with the debt even after a deal and the geology is not top tier. I can find others with more growth, better mgt, imo, and better geology. And if oil retreats to $80, the futures are betting on that, highly leveraged cos will be hard pressed. I'm betting the futures have it wrong but who knows. For those who have stuck it out, hope it at least gets back to the $6- $7 range. I don't think after a pop that most will stay with it. And I don't think SD is a top tier play either, but the downside is probably limited at $6. Having said that, I would probably buy it again in the mid $4s.
Hope this does work out but if they announce they sold LA for $300mm, not sure investors are going to be impressed, that they think it is positive, consider that Crum thought the the second qtr report was positive. Don't get carried away, there is no additional data except a "positive" statement with no backup. Anything they do is reducing value to pay off debt, need to know what they are giving up compared to the debt reduction. Still think the calculus for prod growth changed with their '14 guidance. Doesn't mean they can't move up a couple of dollars in the next year but this is not the rocket dreamed of a few months ago, imo. I don't own any shares and don't short so for what its worth, probably not much, investors are just guessing at this point.