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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

harehau 323 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Oct 10, 2006
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  • Jerry, Kilduff projects $1.70 gasoline soon. PSX should buy something with their margins probably going lower. Oil rigs down 13 this week, and based on EIA, seems oil volumes are going down steadily. One analyst had 8mmb/d end of next year. Not sure how this plays out but that numbers doesn't seem to work for global supply. And it looks like cos are responding quarterly to commodity price, rigs added or pulled. Wonder if they eventually keep rigs on pads and turn off and on depending on price cues. This is a new playbook, no OPEC and short cycle reserves.

  • Reply to

    Investor Relations in Tulsa

    by pjhatbpi Sep 3, 2015 2:28 PM
    harehau harehau Sep 3, 2015 4:47 PM Flag

    I think your sale is not a good one, a deal will be done, the ETE offer is $51 now. And a deal should go higher. Only way you win is if WMB says we are merging WPZ as originally proposed. You could buy the option back.

  • Reply to

    Investor Relations in Tulsa

    by pjhatbpi Sep 3, 2015 2:28 PM
    harehau harehau Sep 3, 2015 4:12 PM Flag

    Last year, it was announced on 8/21 with record around a week from now. Still reading into it that the div is delayed because of the deal. Could be that they have a deal and announce at same time or they will increase div with some type of restructuring that doesn't include another company. Not sure which way it goes at the moment but seems that ETE really wanted the company and probably SE, KMI could do it but would have to sell some assets. I hope ETE ups bid and does the deal although SE could do something with SEP to add value. Should hear something soon. There are a couple of activist directors on the Board so I think they will keep it honest but you never know.

  • Reply to

    Aroon Indicator says buy

    by theheckwithtech Aug 31, 2015 5:21 PM
    harehau harehau Sep 3, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    Calculate the dist at $3.25 Henry Hub, less $1.20, $2.05mcf well head. The distribution equates to $1.25 per mcf. A $3.70 unit price is gift. No value beyond the hedges. Not sure LNG will do much except keep gas in the $3's instead of $2s. Blinded by the dist. Eddie will milk it to no benefit.

    The slow process of leveling off the supply fundamentals is increasingly stretching further into the future. In a
    note on August 31, 2015, Raymond James & Associates clipped its long-term Henry Hub forecast to $3.25/Mcf, down from its previous bet of $3.75/Mcf. “Put simply, there is plenty of U.S. natural gas to meet rising demand at prices of $3.25 (or possibly lower) for the next five years,” the firm said. Factors like lower drilling costs and an unexpectedly weak outlook for industrial demand growth have pulled down future estimates.

  • Reply to

    Aroon Indicator says buy

    by theheckwithtech Aug 31, 2015 5:21 PM
    harehau harehau Sep 3, 2015 9:54 AM Flag

    Nat gas at $2.64 today. Last quarter, ARP realized price was $1.20 less than that. Run the numbers on $1.40+ realized nat gas, doesn't even cover prod costs. Doesn't take a spread sheet. And they continue the distribution.

  • Reply to

    williams

    by harehau Sep 1, 2015 2:11 PM
    harehau harehau Sep 2, 2015 5:13 PM Flag

    A spin on ETE's offer could be value for WPZ as well as WMB. Or SEP merging WPZ to SEP. PSX could easily do $60 value with stock, they are about the same price as when ETE made their offer. ETE's offer is $50ish.

  • Reply to

    Announcement of Transco Expansion

    by lorisue1 Sep 2, 2015 9:43 AM
    harehau harehau Sep 2, 2015 5:10 PM Flag

    Based on WPZ action today, wonder if SE is the winner, merging WPZ to SEP and similar value for WMB as ETE offered.

  • Reply to

    Don't overpay for Williams!

    by polygeo200 Aug 31, 2015 11:45 PM
    harehau harehau Sep 2, 2015 12:29 PM Flag

    I agree, PSX might have a better currency and SE could do something with SEP. I think it will get done.

  • Reply to

    Announcement of Transco Expansion

    by lorisue1 Sep 2, 2015 9:43 AM
    harehau harehau Sep 2, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    Seems if the ETE bid was insufficient and nothing topped that, the announcement would be easy. Want to believe that they have competing offers and therefore the lengthy process. I'm still reading it as positive. Worst is they continue with their WPZ buyout, don't like that, own a bunch of it, and they believe the value will be higher than the ETE proposal a couple of years out. That's ok but they will need to show owners the numbers and assumptions, just saying trust me doesn't work, ETE laid out their numbers and it was accretive to WMB's WPZ scenario. I do think they will end up with someone else. The NE assets are prime real estate.

  • Reply to

    williams

    by harehau Sep 1, 2015 2:11 PM
    harehau harehau Sep 2, 2015 8:15 AM Flag

    Jerry, I really felt yesterday that with US prod down from 9.7mmb/d to 9.3mmb/d, saw one projection that at the rate we're at, could be sub 8mmb/d end of next year. I am convinced we will get to a new equilibrium next year. Still kinda think $75 is as good a number as any. Doesn't seem the globe can supply demand with the US falling that much. The short term, that's a #$%$ shoot in my mind, could easily go back to $30s again but as we've seen, probably wouldn't stay there very long. Bigger issue for me now is China and who knows about that, not much transparency and lots of economic manipulation. It is what they say it is until its not. Today, I think energy is an easy bullish bet for a couple of years out. As for Williams, would be surprised is a deal is not struck. ETE, PSX, SE. I'd take anyone.

  • Reply to

    Why Are People Selling?

    by danielchristmaslee Sep 1, 2015 1:05 PM
    harehau harehau Sep 1, 2015 7:28 PM Flag

    FWIW, I bought ATLS in the $5s, sold at $32, 500% gain, got shares of ARP spun off at $20 and sold them around $10. I can't complain about the ATLS gains, ARP shares were small piece of the investment, but Cohen had nothing to do with it, he just got lucky. The ATLS shares were in the $50s and he decided to sell at much lower prices. You'll have another chance to buy in the $2s. And you'll get to know his methods while you lose what you invested. He'll merge ATLS and ARP, cut the dist and the stock will be stuck at $2 forever, with no distribution, if your lucky.

  • Reply to

    williams

    by harehau Sep 1, 2015 2:11 PM
    harehau harehau Sep 1, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    PSX probably has the best currency to buy Williams, they are selling for around the same price when ETE made their offer. Would be a good combination.

  • harehau by harehau Sep 1, 2015 3:37 PM Flag

    I have an itch to buy something, anybody got a good feel for something energy today? Seems if you believe in a recovery next years, lots of things look good.

  • Reply to

    Why Are People Selling?

    by danielchristmaslee Sep 1, 2015 1:05 PM
    harehau harehau Sep 1, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    Conoco Phillips cuts 10% of workforce and yet ARP pays out a third of it's equity value in distributions annually. Forget what Eddie says, look at the reality.

  • Reply to

    Why Are People Selling?

    by danielchristmaslee Sep 1, 2015 1:05 PM
    harehau harehau Sep 1, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    PWE has some fairly good assets. The prudent thing for ARP is to eliminate the distribution.

    “Penn West’s dividend suspension may place some near-term pressure on the shares,” Gordon Tait, an analyst at BMO Nesbitt Burns, said in a research note. “However, we believe the company is taking appropriate action given the current commodity price environment.”

  • Reply to

    Why Are People Selling?

    by danielchristmaslee Sep 1, 2015 1:05 PM
    harehau harehau Sep 1, 2015 2:36 PM Flag

    So do you hold a couple of more days to make a dime and lose 50 cents, the day after. While oil should stabilize next year, wouldn't be surprised to see another swoon to the $30s. The supply overhang is still there. This is a lousy short and long term bet.

  • Reply to

    Why Are People Selling?

    by danielchristmaslee Sep 1, 2015 1:05 PM
    harehau harehau Sep 1, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    As opposed to you bullish bs.

  • harehau by harehau Sep 1, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    Anyone notice that Williams hasn't announced dividend yet, 8/21 last year with record date of 9/09. Trying to read something into that, that the deal is close, can imagine a couple of scenarios. At $46, seems like a good speculation on a deal. Thinking about buying some on that premise, but am a lousy trader. I could see SE, ETE, KMI, PSX wanting the assets.

  • Reply to

    The $7 million comparison

    by bluebarracuda1969 Aug 31, 2015 3:59 PM
    harehau harehau Sep 1, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    The e and p MLPs are primarily conventional reserve producers and third tier shale plays, they will disappear. Compare the high for EOG, $115ish and mid $70s now vs DNR high in the $30s and $3 now. DNR is an ok bet but is only going to do well in a high price environment $80 plus again vs $60, while some of the shales will do well at that lower price. EOG, PXD, OXY, CLR, FANG, Delaware producers. DNR needs a big recovery in oil price and the shales may or may not supply the globe at $60, doubtful, but if they do, DNR is mired in the single digits.

  • Reply to

    Why Are People Selling?

    by danielchristmaslee Sep 1, 2015 1:05 PM
    harehau harehau Sep 1, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    The reserves at current prices don't cover the debt. The value last year was $1.9 billion, oil at $95 and gas at $4.35. Today that's $45 and $2.70. Value is maybe $1.1 billion plus $300mm for the hedges. And debt is $1.5 billlion plus. And volumes are declining. The hedges get you $3 per unit. A bunch of gas here and around the globe, the ENI discovery in Egypt, 40 tcf and price in that market is $4. LNG may just keep US gas from cratering. And the dist coverage was in the 80% range last quarter. But investors do have Eddie, that discounts the $2 value further. How about a $1 option value on survival. If you get a $1.30 dist for two years plus option value of a dollar, value is $3.60. At least you get your money back. Not a great bet with gas in the $3s for the next several years.

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