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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

harehau 216 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 3, 2015 3:50 PM Member since: Oct 10, 2006
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  • harehau by harehau Apr 10, 2015 9:32 AM Flag

    CS raises target on PDCE to $80. Says they will have 30% increases in volumes to 17, almost $5 eps in 17. Their position in the Wattenberg looks rich, Noble and Anadarko leading the way on development. Seem BCEI should do well also, not sure why it hasn't tracked PDCE as closely.

  • Reply to

    niobrara

    by harehau Apr 9, 2015 12:55 PM
    harehau harehau Apr 10, 2015 8:14 AM Flag

    CS raises PDCE to $80 target, can't understand why BCEI isn't tracking PDCE's increase. They had an analyst day, haven't looked at the slides.

    With the "bull case" scenario ($50/bbl WTI in 2015, $60 in 2016 and $70 in 2017 and flat gas at $3.25/MMBtu) most closely matching our commodity price outlook, it anticipates to add 1 1/2 rigs per year in
    the Wattenberg and restart its Utica program in 2016, anticipating a production CAGR of 35-40% through 2017. Higher production estimates keep our 2015 EPS estimate at $2.20, but
    we raise our 2016/2017 estimates by 5% and 12% to $3.49 \and $4.88, respectively

  • Reply to

    Joke Raising $6M?

    by bullmkt2013 Apr 8, 2015 6:37 PM
    harehau harehau Apr 9, 2015 3:28 PM Flag

    Cohen will drive this into the ground. I had to read the pr twice, couldn't believe the amount was right.

  • harehau by harehau Apr 9, 2015 3:18 PM Flag

    Nat gas at $2.53 now and some think it could see a $1 handle in a couple of months. You don't see a $4 price for several years on the strip. Without the hedges, not much discretionary cash flow. You have to have a bullish forecast on nat gas to own ARP or any of the gassy MLPs.

  • Reply to

    market/global economy

    by harehau Apr 9, 2015 1:34 PM
    harehau harehau Apr 9, 2015 2:59 PM Flag

    Jerry, I'm not hopeful that we will get much improvement unless you think the Clintons are an improvement. At least Bill understood economics and he occasionally made good sense. Fairly sad state when you wish for Bill to take over again. I can't see any of those running now being able to pull a majority. Cruz, Paul, Bush, Walker... and after they destroy each other over the next year and a half, the winner probably won't stand a chance. Seems the social issues are more important to voters than economic ones, at least the media makes you think that, and they seem to set the agenda.

    We are setting up for another disaster, but I can't figure out low long it takes, but that is the nature of black swans. Guessing now it is years away. And at least nothing stupid will happen in Washington until '17. S and P 500 earnings at $130 next year, 25x multiple, index at 3250, 55% upside. Maybe seems unreasonable but if you have a 10 yr US note yield that's at 2%, could happen. The German bond's at .2%.

  • Thinking about how all we hear every day is the same, low global rates caused by central banks, anemic growth, US maybe at 2% for a while, China subdued, Europe still in the dumps. This scenario shouldn't be a surprise, this is what Peter used to espouse on this board, the Rogaine and Rhinehart Harvard economists, think I got the names right, the overhang of debt would slow growth for years. Central banks are keeping rates low until it corrects, but it seems the correction in debt is a long ways off. Could it go on for years, without hopefully creating another monster that we can't see currently. That we have low growth was the forecast. What scares investors it seems is that you buy when the market is discounting at 2% and jumps to 5% in five years or whatever. Wonder if we could slog along for years at 2 to 3% discount rates and good but not great growth. Seems that is the dilemma. Although you could say the market is at about an average p/e ratio and that the average 10yr T note has been in the 4% range, then in that case the market is already discounting higher rates and it they don't happen soon, the market continues to creep up. PAGP is yielding 3% and will grow 20% annually the next few years. Even at a 4% discount rate, seems like a good bet.

  • harehau by harehau Apr 9, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    A Fidelity energy fund manager, his two picks were Anadarko and Noble and mentioned the Niobrara assets, will be "factory" drilling. PDCE and BCEI are the two smaller cos that have good positions. The issue still is how fast and how far the oil price rebounds. He did say that most of the OPEC companies need $85 price. Saw blurb that COP SAGD oil sands can break even at $60ish and deep water, $45 to $60. Drilling efficiencies could be 30% savings. Still seems to me that BCEI wil benefit from Anadarko and Noble leading the way in the Wattenberg/ NIobrara. Also, Anadarko could be a target for a major. They have Delaware, Niobrara and EF. Or they could merge with Noble, gas assets globally, Nobel has Marcellus, both are deep water cos. Seems there would be synergies.

  • Reply to

    bottom

    by chumpbuttsmeller Apr 6, 2015 2:19 PM
    harehau harehau Apr 8, 2015 12:38 PM Flag

    Don't know for sure, but they would be at the top of the list for desirable assets. Whether Sheffield would sell is another issue. Anadarko, Apache, Oxy, Devon.... Anadarko has great assets, Niobrara, Delaware, Mozambique, deep water. Would guess they are on the short list as well. The others have new CEOS.

  • harehau by harehau Apr 8, 2015 5:52 AM Flag

    That's a big deal $70 billion. Would think this puts pressure on cos to do something before the window closes. Also, PAGP announced dist increase, 9% from last quarter. Still think this could be a great long term bet, current yield is 3.2% and it's tax deferred.

    increased its quarterly cash distribution to $0.222 per Class A share ($0.888 per Class A share on an annualized basis), which represents an increase of 30.2% over the quarterly distribution of $0.17055 per Class A share ($0.6822 per Class A share on an annualized basis) paid in May 2014 and an increase of 9.4% over the quarterly distribution of $0.203 per Class A share ($0.812 per Class A share on an annualized basis) paid in
    February 2015.

  • Reply to

    bottom

    by chumpbuttsmeller Apr 6, 2015 2:19 PM
    harehau harehau Apr 7, 2015 7:05 PM Flag

    Shell in talks British Gas, let the games begin. The rumor is $70 billion. Once it starts, no one will be immune to the need to do a deal.

  • Reply to

    pagp

    by harehau Apr 6, 2015 4:31 PM
    harehau harehau Apr 7, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    Bison, saw the headline. I do think the bottom is in but not sure the stocks do much more for a while, but what do I know. I'm still buying the infrastructure cos, which should do well with the volumes, less dependent on oil price. GEL, DNR's MLP, announced a secondary today, indicated $44, 5.5% yield with the GP embedded, only issue is K1s, seems a good bet.

  • harehau by harehau Apr 6, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    Feels like a good value in the $27s, 3% yield and guidance of 21% growth this year, that's 24% total return. The div is a return of capital so tax deferred for a few years. No k1s. Great management. Most rev is fee based. Not so dependent on the rebound in price.

  • Reply to

    bottom

    by chumpbuttsmeller Apr 6, 2015 2:19 PM
    harehau harehau Apr 6, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    The analyst comments about large cos reflecting mid $80s oil, my read, the larger cos are overvalued if the strip shows that oil is mid $60s for next few years. Who knows and we might be back at $100 next year but if we don't get back to the $80s until 17, then the cos valued at that price don't appreciate except if investors see more price strength beyond $80s. Obviously I don't know, but seems there are a lot of big investors betting on a rebound. And the secondaries, $10 billion worth, were done without much effort. And that always makes me nervous. Today, I'm more bearish short term but good global demand could change the equation quickly. I would bet most e and p investors are short term investors which is good and bad over time if you have a long term perspective. BCEI still feels undervalued long term.

  • Reply to

    bottom

    by chumpbuttsmeller Apr 6, 2015 2:19 PM
    harehau harehau Apr 6, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    I have to remind myself that no one saw this collapse coming. My bet was a backup to $75 or thereabouts, certainly not $40s.

  • Reply to

    bottom

    by chumpbuttsmeller Apr 6, 2015 2:19 PM
    harehau harehau Apr 6, 2015 2:36 PM Flag

    Was going to post the below comment. Seems the "larger" cos are not that cheap, didn't see the details so can't comment on the group. Not sure what to make of it, lots of people playing a rebound and in the larger cos??? That would give them the currency to buy someone else, so you are right, why not mergers. I thought some of the majors might do something but guessed their targets would be those "larger" e and p s. Most of the best, PXD others, have decades of well inventory, one issue has been how to advance the value of that inventory. They don't need to buy more assets. Some of the high debt smaller cos don't really have great assets, although WLL, OAS might. WLL already did their deal with dilution. And others did secondaries instead of selling??? Today, I kind of feel the rally is getting ahead of itself for some of the cos, not sure BCEI is in that category. Bottom line seems there are too many betting on a rebound, could cause some bumpiness over the next year.

    Oil companies’ share prices seem to be influenced more by the positive views. The equity valuations of the larger independent oil companies imply a long-term US benchmark crude price of $87 per barrel, according to
    RBC, and about $85 according to Barclays. That is about 75 per cent higher than the short-term price in the futures market, and more than 30 per cent higher than the price for December 2020 of about $65 per barrel. L

  • Comment below that companies are reflecting mid $80s oil price. Seems a bit high, would have guessed it is more like mid $70s. Remember back when oil was $100+, a comment that a $20 drop in oil would cut values in half, so maybe that is right. DNR might be worth $10 at $80 oil and $20 at $100 oil. It does feel that values may be ahead of the rebound at the moment. The dollar is up 20% and oil might not recover as much with a continuing strong dollar. And it seems there are a lot of investors playing the price recovery, which could take longer than expected, most are going to lose patience. And another thought that at $80 oil, the only shales that keep growing are the Permian, EF and Bakken and not as rapidly as before. Some think the shales peter out in a decade or less. Today, my old $90 guess for oil might be $80 or even $75. And it might take longer to come back. Although demand seems to be picking up.

    Oil companies’ share prices seem to be influenced more by the positive views. The equity valuations of the larger independent oil companies imply a long-term US benchmark crude price of $87 per barrel, according to
    RBC, and about $85 according to Barclays. That is about 75 per cent higher than the short-term price in the futures market, and more than 30 per cent higher than the price for December 2020 of about $65 per barrel.

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