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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

harehau 328 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Oct 10, 2006
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  • Reply to

    wmb

    by harehau Jul 23, 2015 3:31 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 23, 2015 7:07 PM Flag

    Birdog, I'm back in FW for a couple of weeks and it seems to hit 98 every day. I'm too old for this heat anymore. How's the herd? If I had money, I'd be buying more WMB, Warren is a very persistent man and he wants their assets. Some point to the fact that he walked away from the Targa deal but this is different, Transco and Marcellus are the jewels and can't be replicated. Saw where EQT had a 70mmcf/d well in the Marcellus, amazing.

    I know what you mean about being wrong a bunch lately, same here. At times like this, I just try to think longer term and it improves your odds of being right, plus it delays the answer for a while. Hi to Teresa, we need to get together and have a beer.

  • Reply to

    ARP bears

    by jbcguy Jul 23, 2015 4:49 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 23, 2015 5:10 PM Flag

    They are distributing the hedge value, $200mm or whatever it is now, and when it's gone there will be nothing left to distribute. Gas will be at $3 and oil at $75, no free cash to distribute. They will continue payouts because Cohen needs the cash at ATLS and when those run out, he will have done a deal for his new growth investment. 18 months to go, a $2 value and the option value of $2 after dist is eliminated. $4 still feels like the max value today, some discount for the payout, $3 is probably a safer bet.

  • Reply to

    wmb

    by harehau Jul 23, 2015 3:31 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 23, 2015 4:54 PM Flag

    Don't have a clue. Still think long term is much higher. Looked at the PAGP pres again, think they may have it close as anyone, from 10 to 15 NA increased vols 4mmb/d and the rest of the world had a decline of 600kb/d over that four year period. Plains thinks the shales are the swing producer so if we have 1.5 mmb/d surplus, NA falls .5mmb/d and demand is 1.5mm next year, we will be under supplied sometime next year at $50 oil. And the treadmill speeds up. If the world didn't increase prod during $100 oil period of several years, don't think they will do it at $50. Also, a comment that breakeven for shales is $55ish, it's never that simple, but if you believe that and they are the swing producer, seems cos will need to see $20 above that to ramp up drilling again. $75 next year, $80 in 17 and $90 in 18. How's that for a short term forecast. Longer term, this dose of negativity is good for longer term recovery, I never thought it would turn around that quickly. We are going to get several bankruptcies in the next few months, that won't help sentiment. I don't think the shales can suppy all of the several million barrels a year needed for the world even if the price is a $100. Seems we may have all of the ME barrels on the market soon and we will find out how much the shales can produce and how much can come from global conventional reserves. I would bet in five years, we are talking $125/ barrel based on what happened in the past few years. If we hadn't had the shale boom, the oil price might be $150 next year. Lots of moving pieces. And demand is responding, the car cos are selling trucks, up 25%, drivers don't car about small cars or electrics. Seems if you have a 3 yr outlook, the next few months will be the time to buy. Cheers.

  • harehau harehau Jul 23, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    Dist release is out, they pretty much telegraphed that the dist would stay the same through the merger. Won't know much about the outlook until then. Would think it has deteriorated some since last info but who knows.

  • Reply to

    Cooperman

    by brosen818 Jul 20, 2015 11:44 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 23, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    Another hedge fund head that doesn't know e and p, SD has third tier assets tied to gas, which may not see $4 for a decade.

  • harehau by harehau Jul 23, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    I think PSX could buy WMB with the drop in the MLP sector. They still have a strong currency, refining margins are great. Could offer $70s, not sure ETE could beat it. Although I think either would be a good match.

  • harehau by harehau Jul 23, 2015 3:28 PM Flag

    Hoping that if we can't get ETE hook up, that Phillips makes a bid in the $70s, they have the currency with the refiner margin as strong as they are now. Would be a good combination. Not sure ETE goes away without a fight but another bid would be nice. PSX could pull it off, good stock price and little debt.

  • Reply to

    Cooperman

    by brosen818 Jul 20, 2015 11:44 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 23, 2015 2:29 PM Flag

    Cooperman drank the Cohen koolaid. Cohen got lucky once and thought it was talent, or at least made everyone else think it could be replicated. I am really thankful that he did sell the company to Targa and I got out with the taxable event. Not that he knew what he was doing.

  • Reply to

    Strategy Sharing

    by ufpeterson Jul 23, 2015 12:18 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 23, 2015 2:20 PM Flag

    EQT has a Marcellus well that ipd at over 70mmcf/d, that's 30% of ARP's daily company production. Gas won't see more than $3 for years. Seems obvious that it's just a matter of time.

  • Reply to

    Strategy Sharing

    by ufpeterson Jul 23, 2015 12:18 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 23, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    E and p investing- good rocks, low debt, competent management. None of which applies to ARP. $2 is next stop.

  • Reply to

    Strategy Sharing

    by ufpeterson Jul 23, 2015 12:18 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 23, 2015 2:03 PM Flag

    Today's a good day to buy an e and p but not ARP or probably any of the MLPs.

  • Reply to

    Strategy Sharing

    by ufpeterson Jul 23, 2015 12:18 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 23, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    ATLS didn't even put out a separate press release re not paying distribution, wow, they are unbelievable. Classic Cohen.

  • Reply to

    Strategy Sharing

    by ufpeterson Jul 23, 2015 12:18 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 23, 2015 1:58 PM Flag

    Don't know what other evidence you need, ATLS eliminates dist, to see the inevitable. ARP is toast. Cohen strikes again. Will probably never see $4 again.

  • Reply to

    Strategy Sharing

    by ufpeterson Jul 23, 2015 12:18 PM
    harehau harehau Jul 23, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    I think your strategy is appropriate. Again, some of blinded by the distribution payment as evidence of safety. Just a matter of time imo. Kind of hate to see people buying the bs of Cohen and the leadership of Cooperman. Both are misguided, imo. Cohen is on his last leg.

  • harehau by harehau Jul 23, 2015 1:46 PM Flag

    ATLS owners will never see a distribution. Just a matter of time before ARP's is gone. This management group is consistent if nothing else, you can believe nothing of what they say. This strength on the back of a payment, probably a good time to exit. $2 is inevitable.

    The Board of Directors of Atlas Energy Group, LLC (NYSE: ATLS), has decided to consider payment of ATLS' initial cash distribution in early 2016.

  • harehau harehau Jul 23, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    Would buy now but think they may cut dividend, would probably fall 10% but not sure it wouldn't recover quickly.

  • harehau harehau Jul 23, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    What's your point, they use the same SEC mandated methodology as every other e and p co. Means nothing.

  • harehau harehau Jul 23, 2015 12:08 PM Flag

    Try again, they use the same methodology as every other e and p co. Your assertions aren't even clever. They have a couple of thousand wells to drill, years of inventory in a top tier shale play. The potential reserves are half a billion barrels. That's in the $2 range. And those nos will be probably go up. The whole industry is facing the same issue, $50 oil. Might want to pick a better short target. This one has probably run its course. How's their bank debt crisis evolving, seeing as how they don't have any bank debt.

  • harehau harehau Jul 23, 2015 11:56 AM Flag

    DNR seems a compelling buy if you have a three year horizon, which no one does, more like 3 days, weeks, months. Probably look back on this period and realize that the hedge funds created a great opp. $3 range is a bargain.

  • harehau harehau Jul 23, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    Kinder should buy it, combine it with their ops and spin it off in a few years.

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