Nothing short term but DNR stock will correlate with oil price. The consensus is $80 in a couple of years, mid teens at least price. Short term is harder to gauge, but
Down to 679, down 24. Has to affect prod. 700 gets you to mid 8mmb/d next year, demand increases 1.5mmb/d, the shales can't supply the globe at that rate. The ME is the wild card, SA, Iran, Iraq... The Saudis have actually increased rigs, they are bent on controlling the marginal barrel I guess at any cost. The bottom is behind us. Conventional wisdom is $75 to $80 equilibrium in 17. DNR at $80 is double.
Jerry, the Fed should have already raised so I don't know, we really don't have inflation and that's their primary purpose, things don't feel right but I can't distill it down to something to act on. Apple is $750 billion of market cap. Other techs seem to be facing reality, Twitter, Yelp, I don't understand any of that but it seems overdone. Restaurant stocks trading near 30x next years earnings. The floor under the market from the Fed and other global central banks, has to end badly but it might be five years. What do you do waiting for years. Seems we are in a warped reality but where do you hide. As for now, going to stick with energy related, we will continue to need it.
Interesting editorial in the WSJ. The Fed forecast 2.6 to 3% growth this year and we got .2% in q1. The conclusion is that most overestimate the power of monetary policy in affecting the economy. Also, seems while we are the largest economy, we are now more influenced by the rest of the world. The Fed thinks we get 2% inflation in a couple of years, why would we think that forecast is correct. I don't think letting the bonds on the balance sheet mature and getting out of the qe business will hurt the global economy. They need to throw in the towel, my guess is no inflation for years, and clean up of their balance sheet before they do create a bigger bubble. The Fed hasn't raised rates since '06. My guess is the market would probably view it as positive after an initial reaction.
Hofflmeister, ex Shell, says $80 end of this year and $100 next year. Would believe Boone over him but they are both at $100. The Cushing fill is over, I think I'd buy oil and gas cos today for a two year bet. Still would stay with midstream, saw a comment that current spread is 400bpts to 10 yr T note, in past, the next year's performance was up 25%, with a rebound in oil price and gas getting closer to export, seems that is not unreasonable. Time will tell.
You need to read a primer on MLPs and how the General Partner owns Incentive Distribution Rights that eventually has them taking 50% of additional distributed cash. That leverage gets you to growth profile that might double the growth for the GP, TRGP, vs the LP, NGLS. Half of the cash going to a smaller base, the GP vs the LP gets you to faster growing entity. The GP typically yields less but grows faster. Also TRGP is a c corp and NGLS is an MLP. Would be worth reading the basics on MLPs, I wouldn't invest anything unless you understood the basics.
Boone did say the demand is coming back strong, a part of the story that doesn't get much comment, 600kb/d vs 1.5mmb/d expected. Who knows, could even do 2mm with a healthier global economy. And the middle east could surprise on the downside again, Iran never going to cooperate.
Jerry, don't have clue. Problem for me is that commentary on the markets is trader focused vs investor focused.
Listened to her interview of Boone, $90 plus by the end of next year. Can't argue with a guy who's been in the bidness for 7 decades. He did think rigs would bottom at 750 and we're at 700 and still falling. Issue that may be different this time is it would only take 6 mos to get rigs back again. DNR would be $20 again, and the Permian players would be gushing cash. PXD, OXY, DVN, APA.... TRGP could be the best positioned midstream for years to come.
Seems the current price is probably the floor at the current oil price, around mid $60s for the rest of the year. Would guess it tracks the oil price. For every $5 increase in oil, DNR probably appreciates $3. If you believe oil is $80 next year, that gets you to $17 per share. Nothing to it, figure out what the equilibrium price will be and make your bet. If we get $70 next year and for the longer term, seems DNR is a low double digits value, $12 maybe. Longer I look at the global factors for oil, Saudis with 2 mm spare capacity, Iran with several hundred thousand barrels, the rigs down to 700, global demand maybe picking up, I would guess $70s next year but you have the majors saying they expect lower prices for a while, maybe $60s. In that scenario, DNR is maybe a $10 value but again $8 feels like a floor. The macro is the key. And most forecasters never saw this collapse coming so make your own guess.
Agree with your expensive market assessment but could go higher, bet it does. And oil, I'm on the lower side of recovery to $90 next year, in the $75, $80 camp. I don't think you can just watch the US rig count, the other global factors complicate it. Do think that in 5 years, we could be looking at peak oil theory conversations, there's not enough cheap shale oil to supply the world longer term. Although Midland Tx could be the Riyadh of the future. Do think the shale revolution could be as important to this country as the industrial revolution. Interesting times. Trying to guess what happens tomorrow or next week is silliness and futile in my mind.
Jerry, you are probably right to watch the Fed, their first move could move the mkt down. Looking at the mkt in general, seems everything is expensive historically, but maybe cheap if you expect 2% 10 yr T note for years. Looked at restaurant stocks, they are selling at 27x next year's earnings, that seems elevated to me. Would guess the interest, discount rate is the key to future movement. I still would bet we see higher valuations, more appreciation before a blow off.
Jerry, a Kilduff comment below. Does feel that the bottom is in, doesn't mean we continue to go up. And conventional wisdom is $75 is the new $90, which makes some sense. We settle in at $75 and DNR is mid teens, others probably do better. 5mmb/d of shale prod now determines global price unless the ME unleashes more volumes, not likely imo. 5mm out of 92. Other conventional reserves need $90. Down to 700 rigs, still falling. Today, I think the $75 equilibrium feels right, although global demand could surprise up. My guess $75 oil, $3.5 gas for the next couple of years, then we start to move back to $100, dollar strength probably pushed it down $5 to $10. Interesting times.
A report from Bloomberg News on Sunday said traders had pulled their bets that oil prices would fall further at
the "fastest pace on record," citing data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC.
And according to John Kilduff at Again Capital, who spoke to Bloomberg last week, "The falling rig count and the reduction we're starting to see in output shows that the bottom has in fact been installed ... A lot of people are throwing in the towel."
Last week, oil prices rose for the sixth straight week, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil was trading near $57 a barrel Sunday night, up from its low of $43 hit back in March.
Earlier this year, strategists at Citi called for oil prices to drop as low as $20 a barrel given that the glut of global supply, which has been blamed for the sharp decline in oil prices seen since the summer, showed no signs of letting up.
This call, of course, has still been half right.
Wedbush comments that SSS could be in the expected range, short interest boosts price. Was in a Colorado store, had buff bowl, better than PNRA's bowls. Good number in rest. Projected pe for group is 27x next year's earnings, that seems fairly high. Probably a good trade if you believe the SSS are good. Probably a good long term bet but it takes a few years.
Nat gas prices don't see $4 for several years on the strip. And now most of the forecasters see $70s oil as the new $90s. For a company with 80% plus gas reserves in less than top tier plays, doesn't look great. One advantage has been the drill partnerships, but with all of the MLPs, why invest in the partnerships when you can get the same tax advantages with a public entity investment, IDCs, depletion. Throw in greedy, questionable management (Cohen got lucky once), if you want a top tier e and p investment, this is not the choice. If you want a yield play, there are midstream MLPs that can get you a decent yield and double digits total returns, or GP that will grow 20% plus. With much less commodity risk. E ane P MLPs are a flawed investment vehicle, and those with a GP attached are even worse.
cbd, just looked at a piece on oil price, everyone has a forecast now, while no one saw the collapse, so probably have to take it with a grain of salt. Of global 92mmb/d prod, 5mm is US shales that decline 70%, 40%, 20% in first year. The deep water and oil sands didn't do well at $100 oil. Cost reductions of up to 30%, about half are structural. Their conclusion is the new $95 is maybe $75 in terms of profitability. Demand should be up, Iran could come back, my guess is is not a factor. Rigs about to break through 700, amazing. I don't see how they keep up with even keeping prod flat much less supply the maybe 2mmb/d of global demand if growth picks up. We are truly the Saudis of the new oil environment. What struck me is that the 5mm of shale prod is the key to pricing the marginal global barrel. And a new 500b/d shale well is producing 75b/d in three years. And the dollar effect should be considered, heard a guy say $10 reduction in oil is dollar related. Add $10 for cost reductions and $10 for dollar, and $75 could be equilibrium. Wonder if Boone is reconsidering his bullish forecast.
If you have a strong feeling for $4 gas and $80 oil, then MLP bets maybe make sense. If it's $3.50 and $70 for the long term, the sector doesn't work past the hedges. Noticed NRP a coal royalty, also some e and p royalties, aggregates slashed the dist to pay down debt, believe it was $1.40 to .$36. Probably the thing to do as coal is tied to the price of nat gas. Some are expecting a $1 handle for nat gas this summer. We are down to 200 gas rigs, there were that many in the Barnett alone a few years ago. And oil rigs down by over a half and most of those wells were producing 30% or whatever associated gas, that will help, also seems the Marcellus i slowing. That should help gas price but when it starts to recover with lower volumes, the rigs will come back to the Marcellus/Utica where you can make money at $2, the next best play is the core Haynesville and that's around high $3s. And if oil comes back to $70, the Permian will still produce a lot of associated gas, PXD is already talking adding rigs this summer. They can make money at $40. The MLPs can't compete with profitable $40 oil and $2 gas. NRP's dist was over $2 not too long ago. Just a matter of time. If you want e and p, invest in the low cost operators, not the MLPs, who own crummy assets.