Didn't hear the whole piece, but Cooperman on CNBC flogging his portfolio, Denbury and Sandridge were oil and gas co mentioned. I would think at $16, DNR is a fairly safe buy, other cos probably have more upside growth, but probably worth mid $20s. I think I would forget about the yield focus and look at more non EOR growth. The whole group should have a good day today.
Good luck to all of you, there are too many other cos with good growth potential and without the debt burden. Best board I have seen in a while. If Crum had announced guidance in Dec without his deal imminent comment, it would probably be at $7. A 40% increase in production is really a fairly good bump and the ebitda looked healthy. Top end is 36k is not too far from the 38k I was hoping for. Not sure Crum can manage investor expectations, kind of tone deaf. I think they will prevail but it's going to take patience and at the end of the day, it's not quite the top tier geology. The elephant in the room is the debt and it's not going away. I think they would have been better off showing investors how they were going to grow into the debt by next year. A bad deal to deleverage would have had a neg affect on the stock too. As I mentioned, if you figure 5x multiple, the stock is $8. There is enough to be concerned about with a growing e and p, operations, commodity prices, but layering on debt gives it more potential and corresponding risk. It's selling for around $10k b/d of market cap, not much margin for missteps.
Most of these calls are worthless, the 40% NAV sensitivity to $5 oil, would imagine the sector is maybe 20%. And the statement, will have less credit capacity this year, guess the obvious was not clear enough, with half a billion in spending and ebitda about the same amount. Think about the $4.90 value vs $4.50 this summer and production is 25% and WTI seems to be strengthening as well as gas strength. After those adjustments, $5 might be a better buy than $4.50. I'm a sucker for deep value. A whiff of something positive and the stock is back to $6.
Goldman Sachs downgraded Denbury Resources (NYSE: DNR) from Neutral to Sell with a price target of $17.00.
DNR is a good but not great growth co in a sector that is growing rapidly, their are cos increasing prod 50%. DNR also is promoting being a yield play and there are much better yields to be had. Think this is dead money for a long time. Not much downside if that's what someone is after, but not much of a return either. Not very good management imo, they picked the low road and are missing the shale revolution. The cos with high valuation deserve them and DNR's is deserved also.
Analyst Joseph B. Stewart said, "We view DNR as a high quality, slow and steady oil company, but we expect its relatively weak outlook for growth and returns along with a lack of material upcoming positive catalysts to lead to underperformance relative to the rest of our coverage group. While DNR is the best pure play on CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery among US E&Ps, in our view, we project the company to generate a CF/DAS CAGR of only 2% during 2014E-16E, the lowest among the US onshore E&Ps under coverage, which boast an average of 21%. Further, the company's low 9% average CROCI outlook through 2016E and its limited 40 year resource life also stack up poorly vs. the group, with US onshore E&Ps averaging 14% and 48 years respectively (ex. min/max)."
Surprised and again not. Crum was an enigma for me, seemed very savvy operationally and tone deaf when dealing with investor relations. And seems he was dealt a weak hand with LA the primary asset at IPO. Don't know if that was his idea or not, it was a weak asset, shouldn't have been ipo d that soon. And the purchase of more assets with a mountain of debt. Wonder if they try to take it private again, or combine it with another private co, they have Templar which is focused on the mid continent. Seems whatever they do, the stock should be higher, but doesn't feel like a long term bet, just a trade, the $6 number could be a result. I don't own any and probably won't go back to it. If you believe oil stays at $100, today I do, but ask me tomorrow, at $100, there are a bunch of rapid growers that have good balance sheets and better geology. MPO's compelling value equation was delevering the balance sheet and that seems off the table now. Having said all that, $5 still feels too low a value.
Barron's article this week should move it some.
Thanks to its highly profitable oil-extraction technique, Plano, Texas-based Denbury has plenty of cash to pump into stock buybacks and dividends. Its shares look cheap, and the dividend could triple in two years, Barron’s says.
If you step back, they have said 34.5k avg mid point for the year, that's 40% more than last year. If someone said a small e and p was adding 10k bs per day in a year mid 30s, 40% up, that would get your attention. And that the EV is $2.3. But then you add that $2 billion of the EV is debt and pref shs, that's where the problem lies. IMO, it's not an operational problem, although the Miss is problematic to begin with. HK's Wilson started out their with RAM and quickly decided he wanted repeatable plays that investors could extrapolate easily, easier to say we have 2000 wells that will ip at 500 boe'd and have EURs of00kbs, that's a billion barrels of potential, put a rough nubmer of whatever, $5 and the company is worth a bunch if the wells are drilled at current prices. But the Miss gets you 10 b wells and 1000 b wells, and it take longer to establish the type curve and investors discount the potential.
We really don't know much about this year, average prod and ebitda for the last quarter. We know little about the Andarko and the plans there, we need to know more about the Miss, everyone doubts there results can continue at the better than competitor results and LA is just sitting there, with no capital to prove the play. Again the high end of the prod range is near consensus, not a surprise really and I would bet Crum is not going to miss the guidance this year, it's conservative I would bet. And we know nothing about the capex or how they will fund the deficit. Still think $4.50 was a gift, upside remains to be seen. The selling was over a no deal and investors weren't expecting it until Crum said that investors wanted it and they were going to dot it. Stock and value disconnect. But still risky.
Another piece of data to reflect on, projected that the US will add 5 mmb/d of oil prod by '20. That's $425 billion of value that will be added to the e and p sector, seems most successful cos will do well and the mistream cos trying to connect and export what we don't need will do even better. Not sure the market even begins to fully appreciate the potential. Also, the rails will be in the middle of this growth, KSU with the recent stumble could be a great bet on oil and Mexico.
Everything now is speculation until we get more data, but still seems a good risk/reward situation, by the end of next year $10+ upside vs $3 downside, 100%+ up to 33% down. Compare that to a BCEI, no need for outside funding, maybe, 60% upside vs 15% downside. And forget about it until earnings or a delevering announcement and hope that oil doesn't tank. Might be able to sleep better with a BCEI bet or another e and p with good growth. On the short term trading side, don't have a clue.
Cooperman on CNBC soon, see if he flogging SD still, might help MPO some. SD does look like a solid pick, not much downside anymore, but others seem to have much more potential.
Bottom line, they have liquidity to '15 and will sell the remaining LA, could get another $200mm. The funding issues are behind them and they have probably the best Miss acreage in the sector and the Anadarko sounds very promising, Crum should know the area. This is a decent hold for the next year, not sure I would put it at the top of the list, a $10 stock is all of the stars align with oil prices and execution. They have put the LA fiasco behind them which if you think about it, that was the co to begin with and it's now a $400mm value. EV is now $2.4 billion and PV 10 is $2.1 billion. Seems the $4s are history. Seems it should be at max 5x multiple on this year's ebitda, that's the almost $7 stock price, a 30% return min.
Hang in, if oil prices say where they are, I think MPO will do well in the next year. Where they are now, mid 30s/b production and funded through '15, it's not a $5 stock imo but I've been on the wrong side so far. If oil stays at $100, the whole sector will do well. All you need is execution and a stable commodity price, nothing to it. And developments in other parts of the world may just make NA oil and LNG more valuable.
Doing my best to support it, bought some more under $6. I suspect they have done a deal, good or bad, will see, and will announce the deal and guidance together. Or maybe the deal fell through, they did say guidance by mid Jan, or maybe I don't remember correctly.
cbd, my thoughts too, trying to buy some more, a little bit moves the stock up. With semi good news, this could explode. I bought some more of your BCEI today. At least with that co, there is not as much anxiety, may be the safest e and p growth bet currently.
The gudiance 34.5k at the midpoint, not great but not bad. Ebitda at that level could be $530, 5x multiple gets you a $8 stock. Problem is a 4x multiple gets you a $2 stock. The debt is unforgiving on the valuation. They could have told us this in December, couldn't get a deal done. Crum never should have said anything.
WTI ia at least helping short term, $94.74 today and Brent over $116. I think that US energy growth is in the early innings but will take healthy prices.
I come back to $3 downside just in kind of a liquidation scenario, someone mentioned book value which I don't usually consider but they bought the two major assets and would think they are more valuable that what they paid for them, LA is probably less but 5k boed should be worth $85k per b, $420mm at least. If you liked it at $6, not much has changed. Worst thing to happen would be a plunge in oil price before they get this worked out and then they are in a survival mode and probably in the $3s. Problem with selling LA is it probably generates $200mm of cash, you can't give it away. $200mm of cash will support $2 billion of debt but the prod will decline. Again, if you like it at $6, you should still like it at $4.50 assume the current comm prices.
Birdog, Don, PDCE reported reserves today, stock is up 10+%, they have years of Wattenberg locations and a good Utica position. Total potential is 850mm bs. CS has around $80 target on them, debt is reasonable, and not many reserves from the Utica is reflected yet. Birdog, I know you have not been impressed with them in past, but they replaced the CEO a couple of years ago, the Wattneberg heated up with Noble and Anadarko leading the way, and they have 50k acres in the Utica now, which could have the highest returns of any play. If if pulls back from $50, seems an easy bet.