Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

harehau 401 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: Oct 10, 2006
  • Reply to

    Vote

    by curl_rove 21 hours ago

    An issue is, not sure WMB can rec deal if the conv pref plan is still out there as well as tax opinion. Can't see the board taking on that liability. WMB is trying not to get sued and force Warren to live up to his obligations. Still think 2 for 1 with no cash would solve all of the issues. WMB gets more, debt is increased, tax opinion solved, conv pref plan goes away. Probably will go down to the wire. But agree with you that the inst holders will vote for the deal no matter what the small retail owners do.

  • Reply to

    commodity prices

    by harehau 14 hours ago

    Actually, the price today is better than the price at the end of Sept. And e and p s in the process have lowered costs. Absent the $6 billion and Warren, this would be a good combination. Still think a 2 for 1 all equity would solve all of the issues. Tax opinion, $6 billion add'l debt and conv pref plan. Would bet Warren has plans to integrate the assets. $60+ oil and $3+ gas would get the US shales back to growth, the Permian and STACK/SCOOP, EF, Niobrara and Marcellus, Utica and Haynesville all can make good returns at $60+. ETE fair value is around $15 today, 1.87x gets WMB value to $28. Even at that exchange with no debt, this co could be the premiere franchise. But it still takes you back to Warren and the MLP form which doesn't give much shareholder protection. Even without the tax opinion, I would guess the vote is positive, the institutional investors won't care about the taxation, could be wrong. Today, i would vote no but not sure it will matter.

  • Brent oil is $51 for December and WTI is not far behind. Nat gas will get stronger. By the time of the vote oil could be $60. That's better than when the deal was made.

  • Reply to

    Harehau

    by pjhatbpi May 24, 2016 12:59 PM
    harehau harehau May 24, 2016 4:13 PM Flag

    Again I own both cos but a bunch more WMB than ETE. Warren's behavior should be an issue for ETE owners imo. Would guess he has done his last big deal. Most cos won't even talk to him, my guess.

  • Reply to

    Harehau

    by pjhatbpi May 24, 2016 12:59 PM
    harehau harehau May 24, 2016 4:10 PM Flag

    Seems disingenuous to claim an issue with the tax opinion. They had to structure it in certain way so that it wasn't a taxable exchange, otherwise they could have just traded ETE units for WMB stock, a taxable deal. Your chief legal officer should be gone, along with your CFO. Seems he has played loose with the deal and seems to me a court will side with Williams. We will find out.

  • Reply to

    Harehau

    by pjhatbpi May 24, 2016 12:59 PM
    harehau harehau May 24, 2016 3:52 PM Flag

    You would think so, that would be a critical issue, in every deal. The chief legal officer saying a light bulb went off, what the hell does that mean. But I don't know the reasons for not producing one now. Thought maybe the cash portion is a much greater piece than initially. That issue doesn't smell right to me but the firm they are using is a major player. Seems to me Warren is playing too close to the edge and a judgement could go against him that would be a big number. But I'm not a lawyer. The conv plan seems an easy one to me. And he claimed over and over on the call that the deal will not close without the tax opinion. Guess the question for me now is will he let it get to court or will he offer something. The longer he goes, seems the higher the number. High stakes poker?

  • Reply to

    Harehau

    by pjhatbpi May 24, 2016 12:59 PM
    harehau harehau May 24, 2016 3:18 PM Flag

    pj, what's your lay of the land? The q div announcement should be this week. We will get another div even if it wasn't deserved.

  • Reply to

    Harehau

    by pjhatbpi May 24, 2016 12:59 PM
    harehau harehau May 24, 2016 3:13 PM Flag

    Absent the management issue at ETE, Warren, with gas fundamentals still looking good and $60 oil probably on the horizon, the combination of the ETE and WMB could be a knock out in a couple of years. But you can't overlook the Warren factor, unfortunately. Still think it dies, I sense WMB board doesn't want to hook up WMB owners to Warren, but they want to extract some cash before he caves. And both cos do relatively well.

  • Reply to

    New Recovery High!

    by mizzou1966 May 23, 2016 10:45 PM
    harehau harehau May 24, 2016 3:07 PM Flag

    Seems today is a buy opp. Can't see reason for sector move down, interest rates?

  • Reply to

    Harehau

    by pjhatbpi May 24, 2016 12:59 PM
    harehau harehau May 24, 2016 2:56 PM Flag

    Have been traveling and jus read the report of the vote, trial dates. I still don't think this gets done but the lawyers would have a better view. The trial starts 6/20 and the vote is 6/27 and Warren says the deal won't close without a tax opinion. I would guess the conv pref plan WMB wins, how does he get rid of it. Will the court deal with the tax opinion, would think not but it may be part of WMB's claims. I guess I don't know enough to reach a conclusion. Seems Warren would cough up some cash to WMB and not run the risk of a ruling against him, that could be a big number. Will have to watch for any analyst comments. I'm not selling either company so it will be what it is, still think they both are better off stand alone. Just heard GS Currie talking about strengthening of nat gas, which would be good with a related oil recovery.

  • Reply to

    New Recovery High!

    by mizzou1966 May 23, 2016 10:45 PM
    harehau harehau May 24, 2016 12:02 PM Flag

    This one will be hard to trade, return will come from holding for couple of years, growth 60%, 40%, 40% through 18. You can't find another MLP that has that growth profile. It might trade down to 2% yield, $42 but would imagine it trades in 3% yield range. With the growth, dist should be $2.20ish end of 18, at 3% yield, $70plus unit value. Even 4%, $55. Seems this is a good bet in the MLP sector, although most want higher yield, this is a growth story and long term hold. And no k1 and tax deferred div through next year at least. And seems they have a more drop down opp which would boost the value. Buy and forget is my advice. But most want to trade.

  • harehau by harehau May 24, 2016 11:04 AM Flag

    Still think this will move up slowly to $30 range, an 8% yield with 150% coverage is not unreasonable. Oil price should get back into $60 plus next year. Wild card is interest rates, not sure even the Fed can do much to boost them but that could be the head wind for the whole energy infrastructure yield plays.

  • Reply to

    WMB stock move

    by harehau May 17, 2016 10:49 AM
    harehau harehau May 18, 2016 10:05 AM Flag

    Unfortunately for him, he doesn't have the currency anymore to do another deal any time soon. I think he really wants to do everything a major does except e and p. Seems Spectra would be the next best bet but they are yielding 5% and he's at 9%. Marathon would be a good fit for gas outlets, the App midstream, logistics with SXL. Again you need a strong stock currency and ETE needs to recover. Probably going to take through next year to get there. And Transco will continue to grow and g and p will come back with $60 plus oil. ETE could be $20 by end of next year but still not the 3% yield he had. Not sure it gets there again but you never know.

  • Reply to

    WMB stock move

    by harehau May 17, 2016 10:49 AM
    harehau harehau May 18, 2016 9:08 AM Flag

    He doesn't even have a board to answer to, accountable to the GP and the sole member of the GP is K Warren. Too much power in one person. He wanted to create a midstream super major, and he might just do it. But don't think with WMB assets. And I still think he'll have to have a NE pipeline. Not going to get KMI's, Spectra, too expensive. Looked at TEGP, GP of TEP, they own the REX pipeline plus Pony, bought iw a few years ago when the flow was west to east, now moving gas west, think eventually Marcellus/Utica gas will extend to the West Coast. You need that connection if you are going to connect the whole country. Still think Transco will create growth for WMB for years. As for TEGP, only yielding 4% ish but will grow 60% this year, and 40% in 17 and 18. By far the best growth rates in the sector, and there's another 50% of REX to drop down. And the div is tax deferred for at least a couple of years, they are taxed as a c corp, no K1s.

  • Reply to

    Less than Three More Days...

    by mizzou1966 May 14, 2016 5:45 PM
    harehau harehau May 17, 2016 4:48 PM Flag

    It does seem like a great franchise, I listened to the cc, they think REX could deliver over 6 bcf/d with complete bi directional flow. And Pony is a great asset. And considering they can drop 50% more of REX, plus wonder is PSX would divest there interest. Drop downs would boost the projections further. And they mentioned that App gas could eventually be shipped to west coast. 60% increase this year and 40% in 17 and 18, what's not to like. Seems investors are drawn to big yields right now but this could be a good long term bet. Thanks for pointing it out.

  • Reply to

    WMB stock move

    by harehau May 17, 2016 10:49 AM
    harehau harehau May 17, 2016 12:40 PM Flag

    And the chief legal officer said a light bulb went off concerning the tax opinion, I bet it did, and he remembered Warren bailing him out.

  • Reply to

    WMB stock move

    by harehau May 17, 2016 10:49 AM
    harehau harehau May 17, 2016 12:19 PM Flag

    Wasn't that the chief legal officer, had forgotten that. What other co could get away with treating it like their piggy bank. Would say I hope he has to pay up to get out but I own ETE/ETP as well. Would like it go go away, maybe the $500mm that WMB paid to WPZ would be enough. Don't see how he wins the conv pref plan in court but who knows.

  • harehau by harehau May 17, 2016 10:49 AM Flag

    So the move now, expectation that WMB will get damages from ETE, or that deal is forced, value high $20s, or WMB's prospects stand alone.

    Think I'm with you pj that their prospects are better stand alone. I don't trust Warren anymore. Most don't think it will affect his future dealings, but I'm not so sure. I think a lot of the analysts were surprised at his conv pref plan. Integrity does matter in the long term, imo. Although our culture doesn't seem to value it as much as in the past.

  • Reply to

    Less than Three More Days...

    by mizzou1966 May 14, 2016 5:45 PM
    harehau harehau May 17, 2016 8:46 AM Flag

    miz, saw your mention of Tallgrass on the ETE board. Haven't looked at it in a while. So if TEGP did 80 cents annualized for q4 15, they should do $$1.20+ q4 16 and if the 2x growth rate for TEGP holds for 17 and 18, TEP grows 20%, TEGP grows 40%, not sure the same multiplier applies, level of IDRs?, then TEGP would be at $2.35 by q4 18, $47 unit price, a double in less than two years. Is my math wrong. And like the fact they are taxed as a c corp. Are the dividends tax deferred as i the case for PAGP.

  • Reply to

    What's a good entry point?

    by stxrcool May 12, 2016 12:21 PM
    harehau harehau May 16, 2016 3:48 PM Flag

    Fwiw, Boone say oil could be $50 to $60 in next 60 days. He hasn't been that accurate so far, saw $75 end of 15 but little over 300 rigs down from 1600 is remarkable, even with the efficiency gains. $60 in 60 days would drive all of the midstream sector up. I own a bunch of MLPs and so far, CEQP is the only one that has cut the dist so far.

ETP
36.38+0.05(+0.14%)May 25 4:02 PMEDT