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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

harehau 359 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 6, 2016 11:04 AM Member since: Oct 10, 2006
  • harehau by harehau Feb 6, 2016 11:04 AM Flag

    Feels like the deal will is dead, WMB holders should reject. Curious why Welch left, seems he was the architect of the deal. No announcement from the co?? ETE can't afford to borrow $6 billion for the deal in the current environment, would have been a good franchise but doesn't make sense at $30, $2 commodity prices. They will recover but could be a while '17 at the earliest. Read Grantham's recent letter, Saudis if they crashed the oil price for commercial reasons, made the biggest mistake of all times, if for political reasons, it had better have been a good one, because they have inflicted a bunch on themselves. What they did wasn't rational, but it could strengthen the shale development in the US in the future, the shales have truly become the swing producer with short cycles. And our idiot govt wants to tax oil at this point, would be a tax on middle America and would hurt jobs. In the long run, economics will prevail, in the short run, who knows what politics will produce. The Saudis could have brought prices down to $70 or whatever with a moderate approach but instead we have $30 oil. $40 per barrel at 10mm per day, that's a $150 billion a year in lost revenue. Don't think I'd want to be the one responsible for the strategy.

  • Reply to

    ETE Deal

    by harehau Feb 3, 2016 3:43 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 7:10 PM Flag

    ETE CFO left today. No announcement from the company. More piling on. Deal will die.

  • Reply to

    Rig report US drops 50 rigs

    by chegerar Feb 5, 2016 1:47 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 5:27 PM Flag

    The more useful info is today's number.

  • Reply to

    Rig report US drops 50 rigs

    by chegerar Feb 5, 2016 1:47 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 5:09 PM Flag

    Oil rigs today were 467, down 31, that's an amazing number when you consider the high was 1600 or whatever. My guess is we would bottom at 600, so much for forecasting. And oil is rolling over slowly. There is no plays book for this cycle.

  • Reply to

    LINE is toast

    by harehau Feb 5, 2016 12:28 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 5:03 PM Flag

    Anger problems? Investing is stressful. It's only going to get worse for ARP.

  • Reply to

    LINE is toast

    by harehau Feb 5, 2016 12:28 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 4:51 PM Flag

    Oil is low, brilliant analysis. When will be high? That should keep you busy for a while.

  • Reply to

    LINE is toast

    by harehau Feb 5, 2016 12:28 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 4:41 PM Flag

    The same things you were saying at $3 per unit, the same things you'll say when ARP moves to the pink sheets. And ARP is nat gas co, and gas is barely above $2 in the middle of winter. It just keeps getting worse. Saying something over and over won't make it reality. OPEC is history.

  • Reply to

    LINE is toast

    by harehau Feb 5, 2016 12:28 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 4:00 PM Flag

    I'm realistic, makes me a traitor. You are bullish for no rational reason and you are virtuous. No wonder you can't analyze an investment. Doesn't even make sense except you can't stand for someone to disagree with you. There's a label for that too.

  • Reply to

    ETE Deal

    by harehau Feb 3, 2016 3:43 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 3:57 PM Flag

    The deal is dead imo. Would take 2.5x ETE shares, no cash, but that won't happen although Warren could do it. Ex CEO of WMB critcized the deal recently. WMB q report on the 27th should be interesting, they need to show good results. I think they wouldn't mind seeing the deal implode but can't say so.

  • Reply to

    LINE is toast

    by harehau Feb 5, 2016 12:28 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 3:22 PM Flag

    And your point is, won't matter when it goes belly up, the whole sector doesn't survive.

  • Reply to

    LINE is toast

    by harehau Feb 5, 2016 12:28 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 2:26 PM Flag

    Take your meds.

  • Reply to

    LINE is toast

    by harehau Feb 5, 2016 12:28 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 2:24 PM Flag

    And you post all your drivel on this board incessantly. Take your own advice. You don't have a clue and it's not that hard to see. Just a matter of time.

  • Reply to

    ETE Deal

    by harehau Feb 3, 2016 3:43 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 2:13 PM Flag

    Deal nixed today and ETE goes to $12 and WMB to $25. Only way it gets done is showing increased div/distributions and the market doesn't care about dist growth at the moment. MMP anounced 10% and 8% over next two years and unit value went no where. Whole sector is priced to shrink.

  • Reply to

    LINE is toast

    by harehau Feb 5, 2016 12:28 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 2:05 PM Flag

    Such clever posts, about the same caliber as the investment. If you can't see the writing on the wall, you're blind. Acceptance, denial, anger..... There are lots of better capitalized cos with much better assets that are really concerned. ARP's future is fairly certain. Wonder how many drill partnerships they sold, like selling snow shovels in Florida.

  • Reply to

    ETE Deal

    by harehau Feb 3, 2016 3:43 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 1:37 PM Flag

    This deal is a no vote. Did ask the IR rep if the activist board members had to vote in favor and he wasn't sure.

  • Reply to

    LINE is toast

    by harehau Feb 5, 2016 12:28 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 12:53 PM Flag

    Pink sheets on the horizon. Even the cos with good balance sheets are stressed. COP cut the div yesterday, may have to cut it again, and they are investment grade. Might as well buy a lottery ticket.

  • Reply to

    LINE is toast

    by harehau Feb 5, 2016 12:28 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 12:50 PM Flag

    Don't take your bad decisions so personally. But you don't seem to learn very quickly. You'll get to the end of this saga and blame someone else. The truth sometimes hurts.

  • harehau by harehau Feb 5, 2016 12:28 PM Flag

    As well as the whole e and p MLP sector, and many smaller e and p s. They need $80 oil and $4 gas and it's not on the horizon for years. Only thing holding ARP up is the dist and it shouldn't be paid, only because Eddie needs to float ATLS. Will come to an end soon.

  • Reply to

    ETE Deal

    by harehau Feb 3, 2016 3:43 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 11:42 AM Flag

    SE is yielding 6% now, if the deal is nixed, WMB at $2.56 div should get at least 8% yield, 10% at worst, $26 to $32 stock value. Transco is still the best pipeline in the industry, everyone would like to have it.

  • Reply to

    ETE Deal

    by harehau Feb 3, 2016 3:43 PM
    harehau harehau Feb 5, 2016 11:27 AM Flag

    Right now, I would guess the deal is rejected, at least the market sees it that way. If ETE comes out and shows growth in the div of $2.56 currently for WMB on the new shares, it would have to be fairly convincing. They do have some assets that could be shed, FTC mandated as well, which would lessen the balance sheet issues. I just don't think borrowing $6 billion in the current climate to get the deal done makes sense, and the market is telling us that. Don't discount Warren, he has managed to grow the franchise with deals but at $30 oil and $2 gas, not sure the timing is right, today I would vote no.

ETP
25.70-1.10(-4.10%)Feb 5 4:02 PMEST