They seem a good bet, plus they maybe have the advantage of SWN doing the reserarch for the Brown Dense. Still would like to own them but couldn't resist more AREX in the $18s, my Permian bet.
Birdog, listening to Faulkner, Breitling O and G, from DFW, the "frack" master, asked you about him a while ago. Can't believe the bs that fills our lives. He's not even that convincing. That is one of the benefits of age, not many, but gauging bs is much easier, after having heard so much.
Does seem that DNR is in the good value range at $15. I do think that we won't know sentiment of the market until the first of the year, but you never know. Only thing that most are talking about now is the taper, and rates have already almost doubled, shouldn'tt affect the market.
Almost bought back into your BCEI today, looks awfully cheap. CS sees $4.24 eps next year, that's kind of amazing for a small cap, 10x earnings, and over $5 for '15. Bought more AREX as is has been battered in past few weeks from $30 to $18. Still thinking about BCEI. Anadarko leads their presentations with the Wattenberg asset and that says a lot, and PDCE is showing good results. A great play.
You clearly have no idea what you are talking about, and worse, don't know what you don't know. Leave the muppets out of this.
Don, NDLS is down in the $36 range, only 60x earnings, might be a bargain now. A billion $ market cap, in five years, could be $5 billion. It's definitely on the radar screen. Also, feels like e and p s are on sale now, DNR included, could be a bigger discount coming. Bought some more AREX, it's my Permian bet, so far, I have had the opportunity to buy it cheaper. Less than a billion market cap, low debt, and a billion barrels of potential.
MPO seems to be holding up well, out of 30 co e and p screen, only a couple are green. Seems traders are selling, several cos seem to be good values if you assume $90 oil. The next catalyst for MPO appears to be the "delevering" announcement. So far, it doesn't seem that most are expecting anything significant, could be a good sign if indeed it is a big event. And then guidance in Jan. Saw a forecast that upped global GDP for next year, always good for energy. Refiners will adapt to changing mix of crude over time, and seems we are past due for another mid east squabble. Just need to get through the end of the year.
We may see a $14 handle sooner than later. Seems no one is buying the e and p s at the moment. Seems a collapse in WTI would do it. Have read several reports that most think if it does happen, will be short lived, as the market adjusts to adding a million barrels more every year of US production. Who would have guessed this scenario, and also talking about the strength in nat gas at mid $4 range. Only thing I know for sure is the future cannot be predicted, except maybe that next year, more the world population will be bigger than it is today. And the US has 800 cars per 1000 people and China has 50 or whatever the number is. A good scenario for fossil fuels for a few decades.
Your post of 12/6. If you've moved on, why are you posting inane, inaccurate comments. This board has been relatively free of worthless noise.
I've had enough. Time to move on. So many other stocks are working and this one just ain't cuttin the mustard.
That's too low for 75 to 85% liquids. An MLP could buy it and just flow the cash for $100k. Will be interesting to see what they come up with, may not even be LA.
One thing I forgot is the stock buy back, seems they could send it up a couple of dollars with a buy back announcement, not sure what the plan is. That would probably save face for the execs and mollify investors. Lots of analysts think they are worth north of $20, an activist could move it, I would think.
Jerry, for what it's worth, I don't know what the overall market will do, although I do think it's going higher next year. Probably the bigger issue for DNR is the oil price, if it stays in the $90s, seems DNR will do well, double digit returns. And they will raise the div, 25 cents next year and maybe 60 cents in '15, at 3% that's $20 in 15. That's a 25% gain plus yield, but doesn't sound that great to me. Seems that most of the e and p s, will return their annual vol increase, for DNR 3% plus 8%, 11%. I don't think oil will spike from here, could be wrong about that, have been more concerned of a WTI blow out or global falling to $80, but less concerned about that right now. I do think DNR at $16 is not much downside, as Birdog said, $14 in a down draft. And DNR wouldn't get the benefit of a move up in gas prices, if that happens in a couple of years. I wouldn't say DNR is compelling and if you are looking for yield, imo, better places to look.
If LA is producing a little over 5kb/d now, seems for an oily property, that alone would get you at least $100k per barrel, $500 million. 37 mm bs of proved, that's $14 per barrel. Rough calculation that it might throw off $100 milliion in cash, assuming no capital used, that would carry a billion dollars of debt. Compare that to paying down half a billion in debt, savings of $50 mm. 36 million bs at $20, $720 million. Seems it should be worth $500 million at least. Kind of shooting in the dark, but not sure they have to fire sale it and Crum sounded like something is imminent. Seems a sale would be positive even if keeping it might make more sense.
Don, that's cold, think it got to -18 at our house in CO. Looked at next year's ng futures, avg is right at $4.25. That's going to give the industry more fire power if it holds or moves up as you suggest. Still think they will be drilling the liquids plays.
IB, have to disagree with you. Their Miss lime may be one of the best return assets in the sector. SD's type curve is 370k boe EUR at 270 boe/d 30 day IP, MPO is at 568 now, extrapolate that gets you to 780k boe per well. Crum did mention that he hoped they had SD's projected decline rate. But if it's 500k boe, $3 mm cost, that's $6 per barrel, and they had 150% IRR at 460 boe wells. I guess if you sold part of it for a huge number, might help. And it's too early to sell the Anadarko, but again if you get a big number and it puts to rest the debt issue.
Also, nat gas may give a boost, 3 q avg gas price was $3.73 with derivatives and next year is averaging around $4.25, that would give you a $18 million boost in rev, if I did the math right. That would pay the interest on $180 million of debt. I'm not sure Crum is doing a good job of leading investors to the value potential. Might buy some more if it breaks below $5.50.
Still think announcing it with the SEC filing is schlocky.
Potential in OK, Marathon announced they are doubling rigs in the Woodford, SCOOP, and suggested the returns there are comparable to their Bakken and Eagle Ford wells, which say a lot.
More I think about this issue, I sense an arrogance or lack of sensitivity to investor concerns on Crum's part. His comments that he was surprised after the 2nd q report. Shouldn't have been a surprise at the level of debt. The CFO resigned on 12/6 and now just hearing about it. I think we would be at a higher stock price with better IR. They named an engineer as head of IR, more of the same? I do think the quality of the assets will win out but they aren't helping the cause, imo. They need to pump that they have the best results of any Miss lime operator, and the Anadarko asset is way ahead of expectations. Not enough selling, or at least getting more specific on the returns, they are clearly ahead of expectations.
Thinking more about DNR. Looked at CS report, projecting maybe 60 cents div in '15, at 4%, that's $15 per share, 3%, $20. Seems they are going to compete against other yield plays vs other growing e and p s, except for the majors, which are yielding 3 to 4% now, but DNR will have better growth. 3% yield plus 8% growth, around 10%+ returns. Selling for $120k EV/kboe/d, could be $150k for the oily reserve base, low $20s value. Not sure it explodes unless oil spikes, my concerns are on the downside for a while. I really think they missed an opp not going to an MLP for part of their production, then they could have a vehicle for further acquisitions. I think more e and p MLPs will be the norm for mature assets, could be wrong. We have gone from $10 to $100 oil in a decade or so, not sure that will be replicated. Seems gas going from $4 to $6 to $9 in three years could be a bigger deal. If you are looking for yield, KMI will yield 5% on next year's div, and they have the Permian EOR operation, 30kboe/d, it's a c corp, and they probably will grow close to 10% per year, 15% return vs 10% for DNR. Seems DNR could have done more with div, although they will buy back shares, that does help the exec's stock options, a la Exxon. Seems the sell off was over done.