Laredo LPI reported today, looks like a good play on the Permian Basin. CS raised FANG's target to $32, another Permian co.
Must be bored, bought some SD today. Think that if Ward leaves, good pop, if he stays, probably still up
some. Don't see how he wins the vote based on the info that's been disclosed, but have been surprised before with exec arrogance, with no penalty. At least the Board hopefully will be much more careful.
Listening to all of the economists, still think about the quip, they see what happens in reality and try to explain it in theory. If they were that good at forecasting, they wouldn't be working as economists. I really don't think anyone can forecast well. The pundits are scrambling, trying to rationalize maybe a different outcome. About the time they all are on board with a new reality, the end will be in sight.
And your premise about the market top is questionable, with the jobs report this a m, commentators will be breathless. How far the market runs will be the next challenge.
Went to a Schwab affiliated co pres last night, on hedged equity, probably a good approach to get somewhat less than market returns on the upside with downside protection. They did well in the 08 downdraft, loss a few percent vs the much bigger number. But, it just appears that listening to people, they are still fearful and bearish, and possibly fighting the last war. Even with our warts, we are still the envy of the world.
The new jobs, up 236k, that's going to help a bunch.
Where are you getting this jr miner label, this co is a $1.4 billion enterprise value company, Jr miners are Canadain, have market caps of a few million and no production. The PV 10 value of MPO's proved reserves is $1.5 billion, this is usually the case in much more established companies.. Just on PV10, the stock value is aournd $9 per share. They will produce 23kboe/d this year, probably more. At 28kboe/d end of year production rate, at $100k per flowing barrel, the EV would be $2.8 billion less debt and assuming conversion of the preferred stock, the stock could be over $20 per share. The company is 70% owned by First Reserve, another private equity group and Eagle. The have access to private equity capital to buy more assets for the right price, they just bought a few thousand more Miss Lime acres. Their CEO is the ex COO of Apache US, the COO is ex Burlington Resources. Their Miss Lime wells are exceeding the largest player in the play, and above the high end of the range for the type curve, with a good oil cut, up to 40%, their Wilcox wells are 80% oil and get Lousisiana Sweet pricing, close to Brent. Biggest risk is oil price decline, but they could get better pricing on half of their production as the WTI goes from a $20 diff to $5 in the next year. I'm not sure you can find a better e and p prospect at the moment. There are e and ps that are bankruptcy candidates, but this is not one. You could maybe make the case for shorting it in the mid teens when private equity wants to reduce their position, this co will be $14 before it's $4.
Barring a collapse of oil price, with only 30% of shares in public hands, the first quarter growth was above the upper end of the production guidance, 23k per day, except for snow storm, not sure it will ever see a $7 price again. They could be at 28k./d+ by year end. Assuming stable oil prices, mid teens by the end of the year is not unrealistic. There has to be better short targets than this one.
My wife said it's $15 per hole, but didn't think they did holes anymore. Maybe it's per geophone or whatever they call them. The landman said something about data for the Shongaloo formation, think it's shallower than the BD. Sounded like a group shoot, Marathon is the operator.
FWIW, the Brown seems to be still active. Family has small interest in producing Smackover wells near the SWN drilled Garrett well. Someone is doing seismic shoot on the acreage. Doesn't seem likely that SWN would still be pursuing the play if they didn't think it was profitable.
No one wants Barnett assets except at fire sale prices, no one wants the Horn River play at the moment, too many other JV opps. Gas is stronger today, doesn't help as they have hedged at $5 this year. IMO, gas stays at $4 for longer than they can hold out. Could get some type of capital infusion, but their won't be any value left for existing owners. So a $2 price is about as good as it gets for a while. Wouldn't short it, can only make a dollar or so, has to be better short bets than this one.
An article below, I suspect we are just scratching the surface. We, this hemisphere, will become the
controllers of global energy, the Persian Gulf will be a lesser player. Mexico's economy is improving. Saw that Kinder wants to ship gas down there. Lock in the Canadian reserves. Shift in Venezuela. We need leaders. Buy infrastructure cos.
With oil production at a twenty year high and predictions of a manufacturing renaissance for the U.S.
economy, one of the world's largest investment banks has detailed how the "shale revolution" will negatively affect emerging markets such as China.
Hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking," has helped lead a revolution in gas and oil production in the United States. The new technology is unlocking oil and shale gas resources, spurring economic activity and giving industry a competitive edge with less expensive gas and electricity prices.
These developments could lead to the industrialization of the U.S. economy and could deliver sustainable growth, Morgan Stanley said in a research note on Wednesday.
With the help of cheap energy, manufacturing will pick up and move down the ladder to capturing the production of less "sophisticated" goods (computers, fabricated metals and automobiles) currently manufactured in emerging nations. As a result, the United States will likely compete with emerging markets for market share rather than being a consumer, Morgan Stanley said.
"As the manufacturing renaissance takes hold in the U.S., the move down the value-added ladder in the U.S. is likely to clash with China's need to further increase the sophistication of its manufacturing base," it said.
From presentation, mandatory conversion, 9/15, no conversion for a year. Can pay div, PIK, with stock, more dilution. In the mid teens, probably will get pressure from private equity, Eagle, cashing out. In mid teens, not sure most investors buying at $7 will care too much.
Assumes 325,000 shares of Midstates Series A Convertible Preferred Stock converts at floor price of
$11/share (29.5 million shares), without giving effect to 8% semi-annual dividend to be paid in cash or PIK (at MPO’s option)
Everyone expects a pullback but they have for a while. I own everything I want to own for a couple of years, out of cash. I don't have a clue what moves it higher or lower. Think I'll take a break for a while, the weather is great in N TX.
You never know, a few years ago I suggested MMP might get to 4% and it's there. WES has dipped below 4% and ACMP is at 4%, although they are primarily fee based. With the growth opps, I'd be surprised if it doesn't get to a 6% yield if Bernanke has his way with interest rates. It's at 7% now.
That doesn't sound right. Seems whatever it is, it's already in the guidance. They didn't address anything in there latest pres. Cooperman was on CNBC this a m, recommending APL, and two others, LINE and KKR financial.
Didn't hear anything that is a concern, they really like the Miss Lime results. OIl cut is above what SD experienced. Only neg is it is only maybe 40% oil. Their Wilcox play in LA, latest well 80% oil, plus NGLs on top of that. But those wells are $8mm vs they think low $3mm for Miss. Not much attention on the co, the call was low key, different from the SD calls. I don't think there is much downside, except maybe the macro, oil price. There gas net back is around $3, if we get some strength, they along with everyone else will generate more cash.
MPO, listened to cc, sounds like they are ahead of schedule on production. Were at 18k boed/d in Feb before the snow storm, lost 800b/d. Adding 5th rig to Miss. 69 Miss wells, averaged 569 boe/d 30 days, SD wells in the 300s range. Added 5k acres, $1500 / acre. Question wasn't asked but it seems the EURs should be above the 460k barrels which was the high end of the range. Targeting 35 to 40% oil in Miss. Sounds like they can probably top the 23k boe/d avg, high end of range, this year. I liked the CEO and COO comments, not a lot of bs, hype.
Cooperman is always worth listening to, imo. Has been an Atlas holder for a long time. APL might be one of the best buys at the moment.
Leon Cooperman, the Goldman Sachs Asset Management co-chairman turned Omega Advisors chief, told CNBC Wednesday morning that the current theme for stocks is that “it’s not over yet, but nor is the market a bargain.”
Cooperman, who once penned a letter to Obama charging him with engaging in “class warfare,” added that despite the “dysfunctional government,” stocks “are the best house in the financial assets neighborhood.” Though he wasn’t exactly sure if it’s a good neighborhood.
Still, he said it’s better than investing in government bonds, which he likened to “walking in front of a steamroller” to pick up some spare change.
He offered up a few stockpicks as well. For those seeking income, he mentioned KKR Financial KFN +0.27% , Atlas Pipeline APL +0.03% and Transocean RIG +0.77% .
I'm not sure large amounts of acreage is going to be very valuable for a while, the constraint may be capital, one of the reasons the CHK land went for a fairly reasonable price, plus the 30% oil cut. If MPO's results keep up, they could have 500mm+ barrels per well reserves. Looks like the made a good purchase from Eagle.
It was warm yesterday, my car said 90 degrees at one point. Rest up.
Canada imports are 2.5mmb/d, less than a million from SA, amazing how much the world has changed in the past few years, oil and nat gas.
The U.S. cut crude imports by 21 percent last year as domestic output surged, according to the Energy Information Administration. The state-owned Saudi company has the world’s largest proven reserves. The kingdom exported an average of 920,000 barrels a day to the U.S. in the four weeks ended Feb. 22, 38 percent less than the same period a year earlier, EIA data show.
“We’re committed to the U.S. market,” Al-Falih said. “The outlook from our customers is that they will continue to require our crude for a long time to come.”
The U.S. has narrowed Saudi Arabia’s lead in production this year to 1.9 million barrels a day, the slimmest margin since December 2002, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The kingdom’s output declined to 9 million barrels a day in February, the lowest since May 2011, according to a Bloomberg survey of oil companies, producers and analysts showed
The U.S. pumped 7.096 million barrels a day in the week ended Feb. 22, according to the EIA, a division of the Energy Department. America added 1.134 million barrels a day last year as improvements in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, drove gains in oilfields such as the Eagle Ford in Texas and the
Bakken in North Dakota.