That is a wild card, the fear.
Park, GPOR reported production, seems they should be a winner in the Utica, whether we need more gas is questionable.
Gulfport produced oil and natural gas sales volumes of 3,894,511 barrels of oil equivalent ("BOE"), or 42,332 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("BOEPD") during the quarter ended September 30, 2014, compared to the company's previously estimated guidance of 40,000 BOEPD.
For the third quarter of 2014, Gulfport's production mix was approximately 71% natural gas and 29% oil and natural gas liquids. Net production for the third quarter of 2014 by region was 3,507,325 BOE in the Utica Shale, 372,374 BOE in Southern Louisiana and an aggregate of 14,812 BOE in the Bakken, Niobrara and other areas.
Not that pleased with the deal but considering entry in single digits and my lack of confidence in Cohen, this is a good result, even with the tax hit. Targa is a great co. Analysts think TRGP value is $150 to $180, which pushes the value to $60. Not sure we were going to get there soon absent the deal. They need to merge the GP with ARP and grow the entity, not going to happen without the merger.
AREX comments, admittedly undervalued. That's a big differential to other operators. And AREX is not highy leveraged. So much for value investing. For E and P, seems momentum has been the game, will see if it continues.
Their 2014 production thus far has been admirable and above original guidance. But despite the better production, the stock is down ~40% on the year, underperforming the EPX and Permian peers by a substantial margin. AREX continues to trade at a substantial discount to its Permian peers on ’15 EV/DACF (3.7x vs the peer group at 6.6x (FANG, XEC, CXO, LPI)). We continue to favor others names within the Permian basin even with the company’s discounted valuation in mind.
This was spun from FANG, royalty on FANG's properties. VNOM is selling for $17. This could be a decent yield play on Permian activity, FANG is a good operator. The return now is over 100% to target.
In the report, Wunderlich Securities noted, “In our view, the selling of Viper Energy Partners (VNOM) is simply
overdone and now presents a compelling valuation. The stock has been harshly punished for not having any hedge protection against commodity price fluctuations. We believe a 10% change in oil price should impact its DCF by 10%, but VNOM stocks are down 32% since its peak in June while WTI is down just 15% over the same period. Although we are raising the discount rate to capture the increased perceived risk in the commodity price and basin differentials, which lowers our price target from $41 to $37, at the current stock price, VNOM has over 60% total return potential and offers a very attractive risk reward opportunity for investors, in our view. We maintain our Buy rating.”
Same here, out of bullets. Energy investing was easy when oil went from $10 to $100 and gas to double digits. Now a $10 swing moves the values 30% or whatever. The lesson I have learned is don't ignore the long term futures strip that was saying oil would be in the $80s longer term, turned out to be right. We have a weak globe, a strong dollar and the shales increasing production a million b/d. The increase in supply won't be as much with $80 oil. If I had funds, would be buying WMB, PAGP, TRGP and KMI.
Birdog, looked at AREX, don't own any currently. But they are around $725mm ev, 140k acres in Permian, $5k per acre, 2000k well inventory. They show 20% return at $80 oil. Current prod is around 14k/d, $50k per barrel/d. Not the best geology, the So basin vs the No basin, but cheap if oil snaps back.
GDP at $7 assumes the TMS isn't viable, could be. HK shows profitable wells at $12mm and $80 oil. But read some that think the Saudis will let the price fall to the $70s. EXXI is selling for 4x ev/dbitda for this year. WLL great value assuming oil stabilizes at $90.
Jerry, saw a couple of analysts, all calling for TRGP at $150 to $180.
Feels like yesterday was a bottom, who knows.
Agree, if they don't do that, ARP will be hard pressed to have much growth. Seems they would have announced that with this deal. Maybe they are waiting for ARP to recover some, seems $20 should be minimum value.
Value is $109 x .18, $20 + $9 cash + new e and p GP, $1.25/6%, $21, $50 value. And TRGP is probably a $150 value next year, another $7. Not pleased with the taxable event but had become concerned about Cohen.
Park, good to hear from you. The problem I have with ARP is there still is a GP, the new entity being spun from ATLS, for that reason, I wouldn't buy anymore, will keep what I have, think they are a $20 to $24 value. Some of the other values are ridiculous. GDP is $7, was $30 but I'm not sure about the TMS play. But at that price, almost assumes TMS is not viable. CRZO is a well run co. I almost bought some PAGP today. Still think WMB is the best bet in the infrastructure sector. GPOR has good assets in the Utica. The problem with the whole sector is no one knows where the oil price will settle. I tend to think we are there but who knows. I'm fully invested but if I had new money, would buy WMB first, PAGP. WPZ, WMB's LP, 75% of revenue is fee based. Report back on what's up with China, has had an effect on oil price. EXXI is a $7 stock and ev/ebitda multiple is now 4x for the current year, ridiculous value, 75% oil. You could almost buy anything at these values if oil moves back to the $90s.
This has to be a bottom. A $93 Brent and $83 WTI long term price is not the end of the world. Investors seem to think we are going to $70.
Jerry, that is confusing, they show the debt of the LP as debt of the GP also, accounting rules or whatever. But there is only $3 billion of debt at NGLS and a small amount at TRGP. This has been a brutal pullback for energy, especially the e and p s. I'd have to margin to buy now and it's got to get a lot worse for that to happen. I would bet oil has bottomed but who knows.
Jerry, if I had money now, would be buying WMB, sitll think it is the best infrastructure bet even after the runup. $3.25 div in '17, 6.5% yield. $3.25 at 4%, $80 stock minimum. 3% yield and you have a double, $100+. The e and ps look cheap but I'd still buy the infrastructure cos, less downside if the slide continues, 75% of WMB's rev is fee based. If the Saudis drive oil down to the $70s, everything will suffer.
Go to the Targa Resource site and look at the last pres. TRGP is the GP and owns I believe around 11% of the NGLS units. TRGP has a market cap of around $5 billion, no debt and NGLS has a $7 billion market cap, $3 billion of debt, these are before the deal. So the total EV is $15 billion, and now $23 billion or whatever with the ATLS deal. TRGP is a corp, NGLS is a MLP. Like WMB and WPZ. TRGP cash comes from the IDRs from NGLS and the 11% stake but they take 50% of the cash distributed. A leveraged bet on NGLS and now the combined firm. I don't own any, wish I had bought a couple of years ago. But will own some now and will probably hold on to them. Still think they could be bought out. Again, TRGP is like WMB but WMB owns a bigger piece of the MLP, 70% vs 11%. Will need to look at the cc slide today. But they said $2 accretive.
That TRGP is down doesn't make sense, deal adds $1 to $2 to distribution long term. $3.40+ in '16 plus $2, at 3% yield, $180 stock. I like WMB more but TRGP seems a good bet, they could be taken out, ETE tried, so they would do it for the right price. This seems a good deal for them and makes them more attractive to someone else.
More accurate value is .18 x $113 TRGP, $20 plus $9 cash plus $15 value new ARP GP, $44. Seems TRGP is a good buy, could be acquired also, KMI?