IMO, they want to be a yield investment with some growth. But there are better yield choices with the MLPs and even a KMI. KMI will pay 5.2% next year and DNR is paying 1.6% now. KMI will grow 10% annually to '20, DNR could do 8% maybe. If you want a growth e and p, there are better choices. I own ARP and it yields 12%, should show some growth and you get DNR with maybe 3% yield and 8% growth. And there are the other e and p s that could show 20%+ growth for a few years. Not sure why anyone pick DNR over other choices. Seems management has no sense of urgency for growing value. You sit back and collect you salary and bonus. And there has been no shareholder pressure that I know of. Do agree that it's undervalued but there are others that are also. Looked at DVN numbers, they are cheap, yield almost as much as DNR and have great growth prospects, and good management.
Times like this remind us that we need to be humble to survive and hopefully be successful longer term. This ebola thing could bring down the market further, forget about oil supply, demand will weaken. Who wants to be on an airplane now unless you have to. Could be tragic.
They aren't stupid, they just didn't execute, you seem to forget that production was down this quarter, far from the 8% annual growth they had talked about. This is more than the drop in oil. Doesn't make sense to me to raise the div when prod is flat and prices are down 30%. If oil doesn't recover in 16, then they will basically keep prod flat again and just have enough to cover the div. Imo, they are masking the operations issues with the drop in prices, the departure of two top operations execs is not about commodity prices. Haven't owned DNR is a while but if you believe prices are coming back, I do, DNR will not be at the top of a list of oil co buys. Again, think it was kind of ridiculous raising the div when you rang the alarm on prices and you're not executing. Smacks of desperation on part of CEO, throw investors a bone to give him time to execute. Finance guys in the top job of an e and p are always suspect.
DNR has micro issues as this analyst points out. Not saying it won't be a good buy at some point but to think they got ahead of the curve on reducing capex seems weak. Could end up being a good move but if oil pops back to $90, the production issues are still there. Much better places to get yield and there's no growth now.
"Overall there wasn't much more clarity given [at Analyst Day], whether operationally or financially, and as such the uncertainty at Denbury has increased significantly while the macro remains troublesome as well," analyst Jason Wangler said.
KMI pays a div, it's not a partnership. KMP and EPB are the MLPs. After the merger, the MLPs go away and KMI remains as a c corp. DNR has billed itself as a yield play, will see. I do agree that the reserves should be valued in the mid $20s. I only mentioned KMI because around 20% of their income is CO2 related.
Think I would cover now, with those type of wells, could be double digits in a year.
KMI was a buy today. CS says the cos in the best plays, Midland Basin, Wattenberg, Delaware and Utica are priced assuming $70 oil. I do think this slide is about over. Might take a few months to move the oil price back up again. I don't think this was a paradigm shift for the shale plays. OPEC needs higher prices.
Unless KMI is interested, I don't think so. Not sure the majors are interested, they have a bunch of shale acreage to drill or would buy shale positions to fill in holes. Leveraged cos are at risk it would seem. Do think there will be mergers but more for cost savings. The m and a in midstream continues, Tesore bought QEP Midstream. Lesson from that is buy the GP.
Value is $109 x .18, $20 + $9 cash + new e and p GP, $1.25/6%, $21, $50 value. And TRGP is probably a $150 value next year, another $7. Not pleased with the taxable event but had become concerned about Cohen.
Birdog, NRP has a small frac sand op in Tyler but I don't think it moves the needle, coal and soda ash mainly. Read a comment this week that each horizontal well requires 50 train cars of sand. The railroads are probably making as much as the sand suppliers, and the logistics, the piece said its hard getting supply. I do thing there is an MLP that is primarily sand, but don't remember the name. The trucking industry needs 40k drivers, saw that the maritime industry is projecting shortages. Those do indicate the economy is doing well and the unemployment issues are maybe more structural than absolute. I don't think focusing on the jobs number is that meaningful anymore, important maybe but not critical. If the Fed does focus on it, could lead it to the wrong policy maybe???
Don, ate at Noodles in Boulder yesterday around 2 pm, good traffic for mid afternoon. And the food was outstanding. I decided that I'm going to buy more but not in any hurry. I think it's a great concept, good healthy food and good price points but more fast casual than fast food. Did see a couple of people walking out with bags of the catered product, lots of promotion in store for catering, $12 per person for full course meals. I don't think NDLS is going away, just going to take longer to establish the brand and not sure they have a good competitor.
The top values in CS universe are PVA 200% upside, nos are as of 10/15, EOX 190%, EPE 180%, PDCE 130%, SN 125%, PE 100% and DNR 100%. CS uses NAVs to set targets, sometimes doesn't fully factor in debt levels, imo. But at 3x ebitda next year if prices don't crater, PVA at $8 looks like a great bet. And their comments on the strip, the fall has been in the short term, longer term prices haven't really changed much. I like PDCE better because of less debt, they do have oil 80% hedged next year and think the geology is better in the Wattenberg than the EF. If oil comes back, these smaller leveraged cos will scream back. Also, CS shows the performance of the basins in the decline, the EF is last at 38% vs 29% for all. Marcellus had best perf 22% down, that makes sense. Last time I looked CS had reduced NAVs less than 10%, so you could say this selloff is overdone or the market is expecting more commodity price declines.
Agree, if they don't do that, ARP will be hard pressed to have much growth. Seems they would have announced that with this deal. Maybe they are waiting for ARP to recover some, seems $20 should be minimum value.
Good question, did see them on a list of potential targets for a co like LINE, that would make sense, but seems LINE is overextended maybe. But at oil in the $70s. KMI could buy them and spin off the two CO2 operations into an MLP. If they can keep prod level at $500mm capex, yield could be 10%+. I don't think they can grow 8% annually and pay a big dividend.
PAA/PAGP in the news, PAA buying 50% of BridgeTex from OXY, great asset, pipe from the Permian, good for PAGP. OXY selling $1.5 billion of shares in PAGP, not surprising, they are selling non core assets. If PAGP dips today, would be a good buy opp. Magellan owns the other half of BridgeTex. MMP and PAA combo would be a good deal. PAA also building pipe from Cushing to E TX, good for PAGP. Still think PAGP will be a great long term bet if oil can stay near $90, even at $80, will need more pipe.
Active management. Do it yourself or index.
BofA data cover all US large-cap equity funds, including those tilted towards value stocks or growth companies, that are actively managed. Only 17.7 per cent are beating the Russell 1000 index of large-cap stocks so far this year. That compares with 40.5 per cent for 2013 as a whole.
Since the bank began calculating performance from 2003, there has only been one year – 2007 – when a majority of active managers beat the market.
They should be able to make a profit on gas at $2 if the NE doesn't overrun the pipes. They almost have a major mentality but seem be very competent.
October has been fantastic here, was almost 70 today. We are headed south next week. Hi to Teresa.
Thinking more about MPO, not much has changed. If they do $500mm+ ebitda this year, that's 4x on EV of $2.1 billion. And they spend $500mm capex. I don't see how they get out of the debt hole. And now with an uncertain oil price scenario. But do think you are right and seems a plausible scenario, SA gets OPEC to cut production in three weeks, oil pops to $90 and MPO goes to $5. Everything will pop but the over leveraged cos will jump the most. EXXI is in the same boat, $600mm market cap and $3.8 billion debt, ebitda of a $billion. For EXXI EV is 7x mkt cap, for MPO, it's 9x. I think those type of bets are reasonable but you have to accept that if the Saudis drive prices to the $60s, it can get uglier, you are back to $2. Seems the whole economic environment has changed, wisdom used to be that the Saudis needed $100 and that conflicts would continue. I think they are posturing for the meeting but who knows. They don't want to be the only entity that cuts production, they've been there before. If they don't get agreement, it will get worse. Long term still feels like a $90 global price to supply demand, time will tell. Who knows, maybe the Russians will invade someone else to bump oil revenues, not beyond the realm. Interesting times.
Guess you vote for the lesser of two evils.
Goldman cut oil price to $75 from $90 in first quarter, not sure what their long term call is. The futures are $79 for the first quarter so seems they were behind the curve. They thought the 10 yr T yield was going up too. Seems we are in one of the those periods where it's hard to stabilize the price short term, the OPEC mtg in a month. Have to figure out the long term price to make a good bet now. Seems the co stock declines are overdone but could go lower in the short term.
Williams completed its ACMP deal, with the oil weakness, seems a good buy op today. Reaffirmed the div increases for the next few years, plus $100mm of free cash in 15 and 16 over and above the div.
I looked at EXXI too, 5x ebitda for the current year for 75% oil. Looks like a value also except more debt, $800mm market cap plus $3.8 billion debt. Not sure you want to be sitting on that much debt if oil falls to $60, even if it is short lived.
Listened to a guy on CNBC, says oil is going to $60s, fairly reasonable argument, the Saudis are going to let it fall, tired maybe of the being the swing supplier. If they don't act at next meeting, could be brutal. Then you have to back up longer term and figure out supply cost of barrels at the margin. May be the end of OPEC, would probably make the industry more volatile. Still seems they would want to keep price high, $100. Supply cost globally, $90??? We may find out.