You are right, EF is all they have at the current price deck. And they didn't present any volumes for those wells, just kept mentioning 20% returns. And the first wells were affected by frac interference, not much elaboration on that. The number mentioned in the article is clearly wrong. Selling a moon shot to uninformed investors, I guess that comes from years of selling tax deductions first in the partnerships where total returns were not that important. And getting close to December, would be interesting to see what returns they are projecting in those EF wells to investors, they erode every day with oil at low $40s and gas at $2.25.
And the adjustment of the dist is still looming. Who would buy with that pending.
Agree that Herz, a banker, not very impressive. And they don't need the additional cost of ATLS when they are both drilling the same asset. They need to move fast to survive.
Interview with Herz, don't remember those numbers from the cc, classic Cohen. If true seems you would have had that as the first item in the press release. A crock.
During the third quarter, Atlas drilled and completed its first three Eagle Ford wells. Those wells are producing an average of 3,573 barrels of oil per day, and an average of 313,000 cubic feet of natural gas per day, Herz noted during the earnings call, adding that the company has "shifted entirely to the Eagle Ford."
Park, haven't really posted, will post here some, but keep in touch, I always check here, lots of noise.
KMI current div $2.04 plus 3 cents per q, $2.16 in a year, 9% on $24 today's price. 5% yield, should get that in normal env, low $40s price, 6% yield worst case if they are growing 6 to 8%, guess that could be argued, $36 stock price, 50% upside from here.
Thanks for the China info, always interesting. Will let you know if I post anywhere else and let me know if you find a good board. Not sure it exists on Yahoo. Cheers.
Park, nice to hear from your. Here and fully invested, feels like 09 for energy, irrational values. Agree on KMI, just looking at it, 9% yield on next year div at low end of revised guidance. At low since they came public again a few years ago. Wonder is Kinder would take it private again, probably too big but you never know.
Tax loss selling has to be driving prices now, funds. Refiners, you might look at MPC, they are buying MWE at a bargain, great franchise for east coast, App. My fav co is still ETE/WMB, I think they should do well as comm price recovers. Seems anything Permian focused is a better bet, Fang is one of the best, EOG is the best. DVN is well managed and has good Permian assets. OXY as well and pays a div. APC looked at APA, I'm sure for the Permian assets. I've bought a bunch of PAGP but has continued to decline, is the premiere oil pipe franchise in the US.
Read a piece on Fed gov today that said maybe rates stay low forever, I suspect it could be right, not sure we know what technology is doing for inflation, taking costs out of the economy. Sure has in e and p. The arbitrary 2% goal for inflation may need to be revisited. What's wrong with zero. But if you can get 9% yield on KMI and 2+% yield on the 10 yr note, seems an easy decision. interesting times. One thing I've learned from this downturn is forget about forecasting the macro issues, can't be done, I thought oil would drop to $70 and it's at $40 almost now. And gas at $2.25, saw a report today that Comstock is drilling Haynesville wells that deliver 24mmcf/d ips. All of this says the export related cos should be good bets. I think ETE/WMB CEO sees that and is positioning for it.
Have a great Thanksgiving, post what you see happening in Asia. Macy's mentioned today that tourist trade is down, wonder how much the $ strength will affect US. This board is a little noisy now.
For all you macro geniuses, how many of you predicted oil would be in the $40s now when it was $100s a year ago, and nat gas at mid $2s, down from over $4 a year ago. You will not get the macro right, but you have a better chance of getting the micro right if you do your homework. Who predicted the Fed Reserve wouldn't raise rates for almost a decade. Nat gas was double digits a few years ago. Getting the co right means being able to trust the company and their guidance, not too much to ask.
Considering the volume and the sector decline, ARP held up fairly well. Move down might be over for now, until dist is adjusted. Crummy long term bet, probably becomes a trade on comm price moves.
Anytime. l thought you had me on ignore. Again, you put posters you don't want to hear from on ignore, you don't ask them to put you on ignore. You don't need my approval, but obviously can't stand not hearing my posts. Buy low, sell high.
Wonder when the leap for joy package is announced, dist cut, more liquidity, merger?
Sometimes Eddie leaps when no one else does. If the whole investor base is informed, then the unit price might actually move up, nah, too much to expect. No wonder Eddie has had such an illustrious career.
Wonder how much further it falls when they announce the dist cut. Is that when owners leap for joy. I would guess the very low info investor finally bails, sub $2. Don't want to even think about oil in the $30s.
That analyst consensus target of $7 looks even better now, probably a worse indicator of value than book value, just lost $7 per unit in book value.
How many do you have now, at least it's obvious and easy to ignore. Spend the time on research, better returns or at least loss avoidance. But then again, they never disagree.