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Валгрин Ко. Message Board

harnashezbollah 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 14, 2016 11:34 AM Member since: Mar 26, 2002
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  • Reply to

    500s soon

    by notoriousbono Jan 14, 2016 10:04 AM
    harnashezbollah harnashezbollah Jan 14, 2016 11:34 AM Flag

    it was 500s just 2 weeks ago. That is easy target.

    Since dec 28, we heard lots of positive developments. Only reason we are here and because S&P500 down 7% this year.
    If it was not for stock market, we would be over $550 today

  • for Longs. Most sold with big loss and are hoping to buy back a lot lower. And they will end up buying a lot higher than their sale price.

    Short are starting to panic. Short rates went up to 9% 12.31. That is another good sign for long term.


    $1000 in 2017

  • It is funny, 99% posters here have no clue how to vale a company.
    Today's stock price is not base don what happen last month, last week, or next monh, it all depends the future growth in next 2-3 years down the road.

    How many restaurants do you know when you sometimes have to wait 10 minutes on the line before you order. And this is called fast food?? If you answer the question why do customers wait that long to buy a food, then you have everything you know.

    This company is growing very fast. They can not keep up opening stores left and right for last 15 years. another 3-4k stores next 2-3 years.

    Best food, the only gmo free place, tasty food, cleanest and safest restaurants.

  • harnashezbollah by harnashezbollah Jan 13, 2016 9:28 PM Flag

    I was surprised how optimistic mng was today. Usually, 99% of time, public company exec should be carefull making a positive remarks and even if 0.1% chance they may be wrong results major law suits.

    Also considering many stupid lawsuits, I am sure mng has been trained with that simple facts, what to not say in public calls.
    Can you imagine if there is another ecoli next week? Most of them will get fired, stock down big, and many meaningful lawsuits.

    I agree everything they said, which I said multiple times here.
    Company can do NOTHING, and probability to see another E.coli will be for another 20 yrs, but company is not doing one, but adding multiple safety measures. It is kind of waste $ wise, but it will bring back customers.

  • If one adjust for s&p movement for this year down 8-9%, CMG is actually HIGH for he year.

    We could have traded over 460 if it was not for the market.
    VOLUME never lies, specially when it is 11% float. How many 14bil companies trade over 10% float??? almost none

  • Jason West of Credit Suisse has maintained a Strong Buy rating on the company, while lowering the price target from $575 to $530.

  • and sold most over 422 (hopefully to the same person..haha)

    I have too many shares and can NOT afford to add in my long position. Even though trades help, I am still down net net bases. my avg is probably is around 430 now. I have over 40% my portfolio in to this. I usually try to stay under 20%.

  • harnashezbollah by harnashezbollah Jan 6, 2016 3:16 PM Flag

    I guess sellers have no learned anything.

    Taco Bell has recovered from the E.coli outbreak. In fact, Taco Bell's outbreak was worse than Chipotle's outbreak. It was worse because more people were affected and hospitalized. In Taco Bell's case, 75% of the ill customers were hospitalized. In Chipotle's case it is 14% ( I see another number showing 27%)

    Taco sales decline -4.7% next year 2007 and increased 10.8% in 2008
    long-term consequences for Chipotle will not be terrible.

    I would never go Taco Bell because gmo and other garbage they have in their food. Nutretient value is very low. You can not even compare the quality and nutreant value with CHG.

  • harnashezbollah harnashezbollah Jan 6, 2016 2:25 PM Flag

    EXACTLY. I have to double check but 1.6bil represents about 3-4mil shares which is already 10% improvements for P/E. In other words, for an example, if company makes the same exact earnings in 2016 (which we know won't be the case), the P/E will be 10% smaller than 2015, which is good.

    Many companies like EXpress sctips and others do that to bring down P/E ratio.

  • harnashezbollah harnashezbollah Jan 6, 2016 2:14 PM Flag

    That is true, but HI PE is not based on just next weeks/qtrs. earnings/revenue. Look behind 2016.

    Check NFLX and AMZN last 2-3 yrs. They had few hickups during the growth. Both have almost no earnings, but yes revenue is growing.

    AS long as CMG can fix the problem (which all of us agree is fixable and not big deal) then we are ok.

    I like they keep buying shares.

  • harnashezbollah harnashezbollah Jan 6, 2016 1:50 PM Flag

    what is "this kind of load" means? All numbers are relative.
    For every sale trade there is a buyer. Question is which side is smarter. Usually excited or panic person is wrong side.

  • harnashezbollah harnashezbollah Jan 6, 2016 1:37 PM Flag

    I have 900 shares now at avg 441, I am down a lot. Bought back my short calls which helped me to bring my avg long down.

  • got in yesterday and adding today, bringing my avg down to 441.
    ALl financial TV channels are talking negative about this. Many negative articles today. Company adjusted q4 numbers and made negative comments about 2016 full year.

    Stock market down big.

    BUT CMG down only 5%, which tells me downside is limited. If we go down further, I will try to buy leap calls and do not want to tie too much cash to common.

    DId few call selling 450 next week/months which helped me to cover some of the loss.

    Chart is very ugly.
    Everything is ugly.
    No retail investor with right brain will but this stock.

    Many BIG stores like Mcdonald and others will not lose this opportunity.
    That is what LOVE

  • harnashezbollah harnashezbollah Jan 5, 2016 5:15 PM Flag

    I am not waiting for buyout. That is not the reason I buy companies. I rather CMG grow alone. Long term we can make more money than selling ourselves to MCD. Buyout will be just a quick money.

  • harnashezbollah harnashezbollah Jan 5, 2016 5:07 PM Flag

    Do not forget many MCD mng lost they job for they wrong decisions 10 yrs ago to spin off their chipotle ownership during ipo.

    McDonald's was a major contributor to Chipotle's success.
    The burger chain made an investment in Chipotle in 1998 that helped it grow from 14 locations to nearly 500 within seven years. By 2005, McDonald's had a 90% stake in Chipotle's business.

    McDonald’s bought into Chipotle in 1998. By 2006, it had spun out the Mexican food restaurant into a new public company. As some measure of the spinout’s success, Chipotle shares have risen 700% in the past five years. The rise in McDonald’s shares is barely half of that, even though it has completed a nearly record set of dividend increases and share buybacks. Its dividend yield is 3.4%, which makes its stock more like a bond than the equity of a growth company.

    Despite trouble at McDonald’s, its market cap is $115 billion, primarily because of its size. McDonald’s revenue was $7.2 billion in the second quarter, on which it had net income of $1.4 billion. Chipotle’s revenue for the same period was $1.1 billion, on which it had net income of $110 million. However, Chipotle is growing at a rate of 20% to 25%.

    McDonald’s would have to pay at least $30 billion for Chipotle, which would make the deal extraordinarily expensive, based on the Mexican chain’s earnings. However, McDonald’s management has made it clear it may be unable to jump-start its U.S. sales for over a year. And that forecast may be optimistic. Too many of its customers have fled elsewhere, including Chipotle, and may never come back.

  • harnashezbollah harnashezbollah Jan 5, 2016 4:54 PM Flag

    These nonsense downgrades may point the buyouts. Investment banks work together to create good price so both shareholders approve the deal and bankers make nice commission.

    Check RAD. When it droped from 9 to 6 within weeks 2 months ago, I made a call that that someone will buy them ( I said E SRX most likely and not WBA, but WBA bought them 2 weeks after my call). Made great 30-40% return in few weeks.
    I say 75% chance someone will grab CMG next 2 months, unless stock goes up to high $500s/$600. Then buyer has to pay $35-40 billion, which is unlikely. With $14bil relativly small market Cap, many interested parties currently.

  • Probably they are in talks. MCD ($125bil) needs to find healthy choice to grow.

    SBUX ($90 bil) may be interested, how about other stores?

    CMG is only $14billion now

    Managed to get 500 shares today at avg ~ 451.

  • harnashezbollah by harnashezbollah Jan 5, 2016 9:26 AM Flag

    I always love buying stocks when whole world is talking against them.
    I did this over dozen stocks, from Toyota, Visa, BP, NFLX, C, LVS , etc...

    I love everyone is talking about ecoli and forget about everything else.

    Try to compare the quality and nutrient value of overall chipotle to any other fast food restaurant.
    For long term health benefits, you do not want to try to toxins can be found all other restaurants. Yes all those may not have short term negative impact, but check the cancer rate in north america vs other countries that use local food.

    ecoli will have short term effect here and next year none of you will remember it. Almost all chains had a case here and there last decade, Some were even deadly.

    Hope this stock goes down further, hope more negativity. Will buy 500 to 600 shares depending the price action ( already got 100 filled this morning 448.25)

    Opportunities like these do not come that often.