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Old Republic International Corporation Message Board

harold33272 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 26, 2015 7:42 PM Member since: Dec 26, 2011
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  • Reply to

    New info on COGIS 24 July 2015

    by theunrealfacts Jul 26, 2015 9:13 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jul 26, 2015 7:42 PM Flag

    We should get some firm IP rates on the eight wells by the second or third week of August at the latest IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Barr just needs to sell SSN and be done with it

    by harold33272 Jul 20, 2015 3:30 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jul 20, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    Okay, what would you recommend Barr do? What would you do if you were in his position?

  • This company has real assets in the Bakken and at this point it's going to take an awful lot for the company to get anywhere close to properly valued in the market organically. A transaction would at least give shareholders holding the bag something to take home as opposed to this thing getting driven down to an ultimate destination at the OTC-BB.

    Just sell the company, get what you can for it and be done.

    What a nightmare this stock has become.

  • Reply to

    Mancos results ?

    by cheezystix Jul 10, 2015 2:17 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jul 10, 2015 4:42 PM Flag

    The company has stated for months that the eight-well South Kokopelli program, which includes the mancos, would be a Q3 event in terms of drilling completion and production into the sales pipe.

    You should get some initial production rates in the second half of August/early September with roughly a full month of production in September to count on Q3's earnings. Q4's earnings and beyond will inch the company closer to positive EPS status, which is extremely rare for a micro-cap energy company, especially in such a turbulent market with commodity prices depressed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harold33272 harold33272 Jul 6, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    I believe the stock price - with or without the reverse - will take care of itself (and in a positive way) within the next couple of months once the company announces the results of the eight-well program at South Kokopelli.

    The substantially increased production, subsequent improved cash flow, enhanced reserves profile and the fact that the company will have executed on a major long-term, producing program (yes, I know Coachman is the operator of record), will begin to get baked into the stock price.

    I have no idea what the stock price will be, but I can assure you with substantially improved cash flows, 1200+ BOEPD, a greater reserves profile and a better position at the borrowing table as a result of the aforementioned, these are significant catalysts for a micro-cap company that can finally inch toward positive EPS status in 2016. There's just no way on the planet this will be sitting here at a mere $0.12 a share, not even on a reverse split-adjusted basis.

    I don't like to see the stock price here, so severely undervalued. But Bob Hodgkinson, at 66 years old, isn't dumping $6.5 million of his own money into Dejour here in 2015 if he doesn't believe he's about to get a significant return on his investment sooner rather than later. This one insider event alone is quite telling. And I reiterate that every penny of those loans was put forth "after" Coachman drilled the seven Williams Fork and one deep vertical/mancos at South Kokopelli earlier this year. I'll let folks read between the lines there.

    Execution can cure a lot of ills and I don't have any question that the company will display that in late August/September when the results of the eight wells are publicly disclosed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What I don't get...

    by john.swanson27 Jul 2, 2015 6:50 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jul 2, 2015 11:50 PM Flag

    I really don't think this will be an issue once Dejour's management begins announcing initial production numbers for the eight wells in September.

    Bob Hodgkinson is a 65-year old CEO and he's put forth over $6 million of his own money into the company in 2015 alone. Two things: He's married to his money, obviously, so he's not laying down that kind of capital and putting his own skin in the game if he doesn't believe he's going to get "multiples" of that investment. Secondly, at 65 years old, he's not looking to get a return on this investment at 70 years old. He's eyeing a time frame sooner rather than later. On the webcast earlier this year, he talked about a "timely exit" with the company's drilling partner, which tells me DEJ is building toward a transaction regarding Kokopelli with Coachman in 2016 or 2017. (I believe Coachman and DEJ will sell their working interest to a third party simultaneously. Coachman won't be drilling 220+ wells at South/North Kokopelli).

    I believe Hodgkinson has put this money down because he already knows the eight-well program is what he thought it would be. Consider this: Each of the bridge loans, all totaling a combined $6+ million, were issued to the company by Hodgkinson "after" the drilling of the seven new Williams Fork wells (which had logs consistent with other WF production in the area) and the deep vertical (mancos), which has the best logs in the vicinity according to the company's presentation. Translation = Coachman/DEJ hit on these wells.

    I don't like seeing the company be this incredibly undervalued by the market and I don't like seeing the company get this letter from the NYSE/Amex. But when the production profile changes dramatically in late August and when the company's reserve profile changes dramatically in August (to be reported in February, and when the net asset value of the company changes as a result, I don't think you'll see a $0.12 stock price ... not hardly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harold33272 harold33272 Jun 30, 2015 10:17 PM Flag

    goodhumor05, I'm sitting on over 900,000 shares. I've not sold a share since taking a position in 2011. The story is very good and the fundamentals of this company will soon improve dramatically with eight new wells coming online in the next 6-8 weeks.

    Having said that, this is a stock that's littered with retail investors who do not understand the big picture. Moreover, while I understand that it's easier to move the needle with fewer shares outstanding, I also acknowledge that a reverse stock split will not be received well by a lot of retail investors. The stigma alone is a problem for the company, given that the vast majority of the time a reverse stock split is done out of desperation and an attempt to hang on and buy more time to maintain listing requirements. My point is I'd much rather our company do a reverse stock split on our own terms at the time of our choosing rather than being forced to do so by the NYSE/AMEX.

    Hodgkinson also has stated publicly that he is not in favor of a reverse stock split. I'm guessing that he voted against it at yesterday's meeting.

    I'm long and strong here and will remain so, but in a stock widely held by retail investors, it's simply not a positive that we're getting another letter from the NYSE/AMEX regarding a compliance issue.

    Management will have to be increasingly active in updating shareholders once the additional eight wells are placed into production before the end of Q3. It is imperative that the market - namely retail investors - see that our fundamentals are changing before the reverse stock split is executed. It would also help if Coachman moves forward with its 10-well drilling program at South Kokopelli, which we will now have at least a 25% working interest following Mr. Hodgkinson's recent loan to the company. I believe it's possible we can get the additional 10 wells done in Q4. I don't think anything gets done at North Kokopelli or Roan Creek before the end of the calendar year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harold33272 harold33272 May 19, 2015 7:16 PM Flag

    Just in time for Hodgkinson to deal Kokopelli in the spring after a deep vertical at North Kokopelli is completed. Take a portion of the proceeds and drill the deep vertical at Roan Creek and we're on our way. Those events would totally transform this company.

  • harold33272 harold33272 May 10, 2015 3:39 PM Flag

    You don't think JNJ drops back below $100 here in May? That brief bump in the $98+ range was as good as it gets from a pullback standpoint?

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