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Old Republic International Corporation Message Board

harold33272 436 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Dec 26, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Why is Ronan Creek so important to Dejour Energy.

    by tlhbmwgs Oct 9, 2015 12:07 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 18 hours ago Flag

    No sir.

    The company has every intention - every intention - of drilling Roan Creek alone. It will be worth a lot more to the company than Kokopelli for that reason (100% working interest at RC). It will cost the company less than $2 million to simply drill the hole (deep vertical) at Roan Creek. Once that's done and the logs/preliminary indicators are in place, the company will have what it needs in order to get additional, very favorable funding to complete the well. A 100% working interest in such a well will dramatically impact the company's reserves profile, not to mention its cash flow. Roan Creek will have more of an impact on DEJ than Kokopelli when it's all said and done if it remains a 100% WI endeavor.

    I would be shocked if the company tried to divvy up Roan Creek and get in bed with another party. That's not the plan. That's not the goal. And it won't be necessary once cash flow from Kokopelli has been on the books for months. Even with depressed commodity prices, the company, conservatively, expects several million in cash flow in 2016. That means it will be in a position of strength as it moves forward with drilling plans at Roan Creek.

    When a deep vertical is drilled at North Kokopelli, my gut feeling is that you would see a "transactional outcome" for DEJ's interest in Kokopelli (meaning both South and North Kokopelli). When a deep vertical is drilled at Roan Creek, my feeling is that you will see a "transactional outcome" there. This is why a lot of longs have remained. The company has been building to this point for years.

    Woodrush will continue to be in expansion mode for years in my opinion because of the company's belief that it can be much, much bigger. The economies of scale there are also more favorable to the company. BTW ... once the transactional outcomes occur at Koko/Roan Creek, I would fully expect the company to dramatically expand its US portfolio.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DEJ has declined over 60. percent

    by karakoranclimber Oct 7, 2015 1:19 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Oct 7, 2015 1:51 PM Flag

    Hey everyone. Please ignore this piece of s&*t. He has short interest in this stock and each and every day he hops on this board to denigrate the company, its officers and its shareholders. He has a vested interest in the stock price going down.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This isn't google or amazon. This is a blue-chip, dividend paying stock and I have to say I'm a little surprised a split at this point hasn't been given more consideration.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harold33272 harold33272 Sep 28, 2015 8:25 AM Flag

    It would really surprise me to see any additional dilutive activity, given the company's improved state financially and considering the downward pressure on all stocks in the energy sector. I don't think that's the answer. I agreed with it in 2012 when nat gas drifted below $2 a pop and I agreed with it when the company pushed up its WI at Woodrush. I wouldn't agree with it at this point, considering the catalysts/production profile going forward.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harold33272 harold33272 Sep 27, 2015 8:24 PM Flag

    Holder since 2011. Just over 900,000 shares.

    BH advanced the company 6.5 million this year (very favorable terms). It is possible Coachman may drill more wells at South Kokopelli before anything is done at North. It is also possible one of those additional wells may be another deep vertical. BH's loan ensures DEJ will be carried through additional development there.

    When you're a working interest partner, it works differently than merely having a royalty. There are at times unforeseen associated cost with a drilling program. If you've got a royalty, you don't bear that cost. If you have a working interest, you do bear "some" cost, although in DEJ's case a minority WI or cost.

    All wells/production are indeed now into pipe, yes, but the company isn't going to announce IP rates until after a consistent production profile is established and after a greenlight from Coachman. I expect this to happen in the coming days, whether it's this week or next.

    Best to you.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harold33272 harold33272 Sep 27, 2015 6:52 PM Flag

    Mr. Hodgkinson's loan has indeed allowed the company to be carried through on Kokopelli development. (South Kokopelli)

    The drilling at North Kokopelli and Roan Creek are independent of that. Both N. Kokopelli and Roan Creek are 2016 events. The company will go to the borrowing table to facilitate some of the development at RC and N. Kokopelli, using the rest from cash flow at South Kokopelli.

    And yes, the beast was a horizontal. We know that. It's why I've reiterated deep vertical.

    I expect significant expansion at Woodrush because I believe the company will add further acreage there (there are some distressed oil/gas leases in the vicinity). Woodrush, on its own, is cash flow positive, btw. The company will be in a position to pick up some low-hanging fruit in the area in the coming months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harold33272 harold33272 Sep 27, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    No ... they won't cost $30 million, not close. To simply drill a deep vertical at Roan Creek is something they can do for under $2 million. To simply drill the hole is something that can be done for $1.5 million. Once they have the well logs and engineering report, they will have everything they need at the borrowing table to complete it, which will be roughly an additional $3 million (tops).

    They're also not drilling a deep vertical at North Kokopelli alone. The brunt of the cost burden will fall on Coachman, LLC.

    As for additional drilling at South Kokopelli (should that happen), DEJ also is now carried for that endeavor. Hodgkinson put $6.5 million into the company this year and in part it was to ensure DEJ would maintain its 25% WI in Kokopelli on a going forward basis.

    And Woodrush, btw, has essentially paid for itself and continues to pay the company's bills. I expect significant expansion at WR.

    I would remind you that in a matter of days you'll see 1200-1300+ BOEPD as a new, consistent, stable, predictable production profile for the company which on a year-over-year basis is substantial in nature, given that the company was at roughly 250-300 BOEPD this time a year ago (depending on the month).

    This is a different company now, by any measure, by any common sense definition. Furthermore, even with depressed oil/nat gas prices, when DEJ reports Q4 earnings in mid-February, you're going to see a rare microcap E&P company as a positive EPS stock. I can't emphasize how rare that is.

    The arrow is pointing upward with this company.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The fifth bullet point under 2015-2016 goals is quite telling and it's overdue from my perspective. The company finally discloses what most longs have known for some time with this statement:

    "Position portfolio assets for transactional outcomes."

    I was very glad to see this.

    Bob Hodgkinson is a 66-year old man. He's already sold two companies. While I do not expect an outright sell of Dejour in its entirety, clearly, this is a company that has been positioning itself to first prove up assets and then maximize the value of those assets for shareholders by selling them. A 66-year old CEO with 10,000,000+ shares who pours $6.5 million of his own money into this company isn't doing it to merely get his money back. He's doing it because he knows what's sitting in the ground and because he expects "multiples" of that investment.

    The aforementioned bullet point was the first time where this company clearly outlined its long-term plan. In other words, Dejour has no desire to sit here over the next 10-15 years and poke 220+ holes in the ground at South/North Kokopelli. That's not going to happen. It was never going to happen. What will happen is another deep vertical (this one at North Kokopelli) and then I would expect a transaction for Kokopelli. (That's not to say there may not be another deep vertical at South Kokopelli as well)

    From the cash flow of Kokopelli and Woodrush, the company is in a better position at the bargaining table with a lender and from that, and from that additional cash flow, you're probably going to see a deep vertical at Roan Creek in 2016 with DEJ maintaining 100 WI and then further expansion at Woodrush (the company didn't acquire more acreage, beef up its working interest and retain ownership of a pipeline not to expand).

    When DEJ completes these tasks - as it is very much on track to do - each of these asset plays will be worth more than the current market cap. Let that sink in for a moment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Coachmen energy the best move for DEJ

    by tlhbmwgs Sep 16, 2015 10:53 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Sep 16, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    This would be a bad, bad move for shareholders. It's simply not happening.

    DEJ will now be in a position of strength with a revised, more favorable recoverable reserves profile and production profile following what's been done now at South Kokopelli. It gives DEJ a better situation at the borrowing table and greatly improves the company's cash flows, as you will see in Q4 earnings following three solid months of production into pipe from South Kokopelli. The company will not have to sell South or North Kokopelli in order to go in alone and drill a deep vertical at Roan Creek in 2016. Once a deep vertical is drilled at North Kokopelli, I would expect for both Coachman and DEJ to go to the table and deal the entire Kokopelli play.

    Hodgkinson would get very little for North Kokopelli without a deep vertical drilled on the property. DEJ would be taking tens of millions off the table to sell North Kokopelli without a deep vertical drilled. It's simply not happening.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by johnandjoy1 Sep 15, 2015 10:01 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Sep 15, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    I would absolutely love to see nat gas at $4.00 a pop but it's not happening in 2015. I don't see any hard information that suggests that nat gas will be anywhere near $4.00 before year-end 2015.

    I do think DEJ will do Roan Creek alone, maintaining 100% WI. That's a 2016 event but I think that's likely. I also see further Woodrush expansion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by johnandjoy1 Sep 15, 2015 10:01 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Sep 15, 2015 10:41 AM Flag

    Not happening.

    DEJ isn't selling its working interest in South Kokopelli at this time and wouldn't anyway with nat gas under $3.00 a pop. If a transaction occurs at Kokopelli, it would be only after a deep vertical was drilled at North Kokopelli. Once that event happens and after nat gas is back up over $3.00 a pop, I could see a transaction for DEJ's working interest in the entire 2200+ acre Kokopelli field. The company also would want a year-end, independent recoverable reserves profile/report before doing a transaction.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Doubled down

    by wise_wun Aug 30, 2015 5:52 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Aug 30, 2015 10:22 PM Flag

    He wouldn't sell the company without first drilling a deep vertical into the mancos at North Kokopelli and Roan Creek. I fully expect to DEJ to do Roan Creek alone and by doing so maintain its 100% WI there.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I am buying heavy today.

    by rockkerr898 Aug 24, 2015 8:44 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Aug 24, 2015 9:01 AM Flag

    I am as well. Buying both DEJ and OAS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New info on COGIS 24 July 2015

    by theunrealfacts Jul 26, 2015 9:13 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jul 26, 2015 7:42 PM Flag

    We should get some firm IP rates on the eight wells by the second or third week of August at the latest IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Barr just needs to sell SSN and be done with it

    by harold33272 Jul 20, 2015 3:30 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jul 20, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    Okay, what would you recommend Barr do? What would you do if you were in his position?

  • This company has real assets in the Bakken and at this point it's going to take an awful lot for the company to get anywhere close to properly valued in the market organically. A transaction would at least give shareholders holding the bag something to take home as opposed to this thing getting driven down to an ultimate destination at the OTC-BB.

    Just sell the company, get what you can for it and be done.

    What a nightmare this stock has become.

  • Reply to

    Mancos results ?

    by cheezystix Jul 10, 2015 2:17 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jul 10, 2015 4:42 PM Flag

    The company has stated for months that the eight-well South Kokopelli program, which includes the mancos, would be a Q3 event in terms of drilling completion and production into the sales pipe.

    You should get some initial production rates in the second half of August/early September with roughly a full month of production in September to count on Q3's earnings. Q4's earnings and beyond will inch the company closer to positive EPS status, which is extremely rare for a micro-cap energy company, especially in such a turbulent market with commodity prices depressed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harold33272 harold33272 Jul 6, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    I believe the stock price - with or without the reverse - will take care of itself (and in a positive way) within the next couple of months once the company announces the results of the eight-well program at South Kokopelli.

    The substantially increased production, subsequent improved cash flow, enhanced reserves profile and the fact that the company will have executed on a major long-term, producing program (yes, I know Coachman is the operator of record), will begin to get baked into the stock price.

    I have no idea what the stock price will be, but I can assure you with substantially improved cash flows, 1200+ BOEPD, a greater reserves profile and a better position at the borrowing table as a result of the aforementioned, these are significant catalysts for a micro-cap company that can finally inch toward positive EPS status in 2016. There's just no way on the planet this will be sitting here at a mere $0.12 a share, not even on a reverse split-adjusted basis.

    I don't like to see the stock price here, so severely undervalued. But Bob Hodgkinson, at 66 years old, isn't dumping $6.5 million of his own money into Dejour here in 2015 if he doesn't believe he's about to get a significant return on his investment sooner rather than later. This one insider event alone is quite telling. And I reiterate that every penny of those loans was put forth "after" Coachman drilled the seven Williams Fork and one deep vertical/mancos at South Kokopelli earlier this year. I'll let folks read between the lines there.

    Execution can cure a lot of ills and I don't have any question that the company will display that in late August/September when the results of the eight wells are publicly disclosed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What I don't get...

    by john.swanson27 Jul 2, 2015 6:50 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jul 2, 2015 11:50 PM Flag

    I really don't think this will be an issue once Dejour's management begins announcing initial production numbers for the eight wells in September.

    Bob Hodgkinson is a 65-year old CEO and he's put forth over $6 million of his own money into the company in 2015 alone. Two things: He's married to his money, obviously, so he's not laying down that kind of capital and putting his own skin in the game if he doesn't believe he's going to get "multiples" of that investment. Secondly, at 65 years old, he's not looking to get a return on this investment at 70 years old. He's eyeing a time frame sooner rather than later. On the webcast earlier this year, he talked about a "timely exit" with the company's drilling partner, which tells me DEJ is building toward a transaction regarding Kokopelli with Coachman in 2016 or 2017. (I believe Coachman and DEJ will sell their working interest to a third party simultaneously. Coachman won't be drilling 220+ wells at South/North Kokopelli).

    I believe Hodgkinson has put this money down because he already knows the eight-well program is what he thought it would be. Consider this: Each of the bridge loans, all totaling a combined $6+ million, were issued to the company by Hodgkinson "after" the drilling of the seven new Williams Fork wells (which had logs consistent with other WF production in the area) and the deep vertical (mancos), which has the best logs in the vicinity according to the company's presentation. Translation = Coachman/DEJ hit on these wells.

    I don't like seeing the company be this incredibly undervalued by the market and I don't like seeing the company get this letter from the NYSE/Amex. But when the production profile changes dramatically in late August and when the company's reserve profile changes dramatically in August (to be reported in February, and when the net asset value of the company changes as a result, I don't think you'll see a $0.12 stock price ... not hardly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harold33272 harold33272 Jun 30, 2015 10:17 PM Flag

    goodhumor05, I'm sitting on over 900,000 shares. I've not sold a share since taking a position in 2011. The story is very good and the fundamentals of this company will soon improve dramatically with eight new wells coming online in the next 6-8 weeks.

    Having said that, this is a stock that's littered with retail investors who do not understand the big picture. Moreover, while I understand that it's easier to move the needle with fewer shares outstanding, I also acknowledge that a reverse stock split will not be received well by a lot of retail investors. The stigma alone is a problem for the company, given that the vast majority of the time a reverse stock split is done out of desperation and an attempt to hang on and buy more time to maintain listing requirements. My point is I'd much rather our company do a reverse stock split on our own terms at the time of our choosing rather than being forced to do so by the NYSE/AMEX.

    Hodgkinson also has stated publicly that he is not in favor of a reverse stock split. I'm guessing that he voted against it at yesterday's meeting.

    I'm long and strong here and will remain so, but in a stock widely held by retail investors, it's simply not a positive that we're getting another letter from the NYSE/AMEX regarding a compliance issue.

    Management will have to be increasingly active in updating shareholders once the additional eight wells are placed into production before the end of Q3. It is imperative that the market - namely retail investors - see that our fundamentals are changing before the reverse stock split is executed. It would also help if Coachman moves forward with its 10-well drilling program at South Kokopelli, which we will now have at least a 25% working interest following Mr. Hodgkinson's recent loan to the company. I believe it's possible we can get the additional 10 wells done in Q4. I don't think anything gets done at North Kokopelli or Roan Creek before the end of the calendar year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

16.44-0.09(-0.54%)Oct 9 4:01 PMEDT