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ConocoPhillips Message Board

harold33272 34 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 18, 2014 11:27 AM Member since: Dec 26, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Could we get Mancos news today?

    by justthefactsdudes Dec 18, 2014 10:39 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Dec 18, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    Mancos should be wrapped up around Dec. 20-22, however ... I would not expect anything significant in the way of news from Kokopelli until sometime in late January/February. The frack team won't even be on site until sometime in that time frame. Until they've done their work, I wouldn't expect any hardboiled numbers.

    Everyone's encouraged, obviously, but to actually quantify what's coming out of the ground at both Woodrush and Kokopelli with the new wells, we're going to have to wait until late Jan/Feb for that information.

    So essentially this is a Q1/2015 event. Revenues (from the new wells at Kokopelli and Woodrush) for the company should jump dramatically and show up on the balance sheet in Q1-2015 and fully in Q2-2015's report. It's my expectation that once the company has the additional cash flow from Kokopelli in late Q1/2015 and into Q2/2015, they'll ramp up plans at Roan Creek. A deep vertical at Roan Creek could still be done in Q3-2015/Q4-2015.

    Should be a much different company in 2015 with - finally - a positive EPS stock following reporting on Q2-2015. To be a small cap energy company and to be evaluated on a positive EPS basis by the market, finally, will be significant IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Thinking about backing the truck up. Got in at $$39.80 the day after Thanksgiving. Trying to round up some additional dry powder here.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    PEP last split was in 96....

    by insurancefla1 Nov 19, 2014 8:58 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Dec 8, 2014 4:08 PM Flag

    2015 could certainly be the year of the split for several stocks, including PEP.

    I think there's a very good chance JNJ, MMM, GPC, LMT, GD, KMB and CLX split in 2015.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Q3 & Beyond

    by goodhumor5 Nov 11, 2014 4:12 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Nov 12, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    Hodgkinson must take every step to avoid further dilution. If indeed the bulk of the funds raised for Roan Creek and further Kokopelli development in 2015 is produced via an offering, it's quite possible we could exit 2015 with triple the shares outstanding at the time Hodgkinson joined the company a decade ago. Let that sink in for just a moment; from the time he joined the company a decade ago until year-end 2015, we will have tripled the shares outstanding, which as you know makes it increasingly difficult to move the dial.

    The overall story is great. But their most recent round of dilution killed the best rally we had in the stock in two years. I'm no fan of debt, but you could suck the natural gas and NGLs out of the ground with a straw at Kokopelli. This is low-risk. It's a predictable, stable cash flow machine. Therefore I am fine with the company funding a portion of the Kokopelli development with a bank line and likewise with the deep vertical at Roan Creek, which at the earliest would be a Q3/2015 event.

    Essentially, we do not need to exit 2015 with 230-250+ million shares outstanding.

    We are at the doorstep of placing another 10+ wells online, wells which have been fully funded. The revenues from these operations should substantially improve the balance sheet and give us the opportunity to - finally - become a positive EPS story by Q2/2015.

    Hodgkinson is no different than any other CEO of a publicly traded company. He simply must be judged by the stock price. That is the only barometer at the end of the day by which he must be judged. We now have a decade with which to judge his stewardship of the company. I'll let everyone take a look at the chart over the last 7 years and look at the obvious. Provided execution occurs on these wells in the coming weeks/months, Hodgkinson has a chance to really build some goodwill with shareholders. More dilution, though, will surely negatively impact that effort with long-suffering shareholders.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividend Increase

    by chicago1957 Nov 1, 2014 7:44 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Nov 7, 2014 10:16 PM Flag

    It is my hope that the company puts forth more consideration for a higher dividend increase this time around. I know we've been spoiled over the years but I admit I expected more than a 6% increase earlier this year. I'd like to see something in the 9-10% + range next spring. And considering that the stock price should continue to trade above $100 a share, I would think a split would be announced as well.

    Looks like several stocks in my portfolio may consider a split in 2015: JNJ, MMM, GPC, PEP, KMB, CLX. Looks like PG may be a couple years away from a split.

  • Reply to

    DEJ

    by dejinvest Oct 21, 2014 12:18 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Oct 21, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    Just read it.

    Easily the most thorough, comprehensive piece on Dejour and its short and long-term potential I've read in a long time. The author also did a masterful job highlighting the close proximity and association geographically with regard to Dejour and other major players within the Piceance.

    A successful mancos at Kokopelli could double or triple the company's current market cap with another wave of that activity at Roan Creek in the second half of 2015. My hope is that the company can find a way to go in on its own and do a deep vertical into the mancos at Roan Creek in late 2015, given that its cash flow should be markedly improved by that time. To successfully execute on a mancos at Roan Creek and to do so with 100-percent of what comes out of the ground flowing directly into Dejour's coffers would be nothing short of huge. Just huge.

    When this happens, it won't take long for it to get baked into the stock. Long before Roan Creek, DEJ should be a positive EPS company following the drilling activity at Kokopelli and Woodrush this fall.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harold33272 harold33272 Oct 5, 2014 10:28 PM Flag

    jmp8282, I just increased my position in Kraft late last month and did so partly in anticipation of another dividend increase, one I'm hopeful will be in the 5-7% range, which I believe is realistic. I admit, I am a little surprised it was not announced a week or two earlier.

    Not a huge position in my portfolio (about 2.5%), but a stock I intend to hold for many years nonetheless.

    GLTA.

  • Thanks and have a nice day.

  • harold33272 harold33272 Sep 4, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    This is my guess as well, just initially digesting this news. The company surely had to forecast a worst-case scenario by upping the dividend again. The company seems to be committed to keeping the dividend intact.

    I assume there will be an appeal and perhaps BP can keep this thing tied up for awhile.

    Surprising ruling, in my opinion. The returns from hearings a year ago seemed to be somewhat encouraging from BP's standpoint.

  • I know management will fight to protect the dividend, but clearly this news puts pressure on that effort, to put it mildly.

  • Reply to

    MD&A Posting?

    by johnandjoy1 Aug 9, 2014 7:37 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Aug 9, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    Mgt is optimistic it will get a mancos at Kokopelli done this fall. The JV wants to go forward with that asap.

    I think a mancos at Roan Creek will be a second half/2015 event.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harold33272 harold33272 Aug 6, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    DEJ isn't defined by what Encana does or what WPX does. The fact that DEJ is the only micro-cap in what a lot of people still refer to as the Greater Gibson Gulch area of the Piceanse is a positive. To be surrounded by a lot of multi-billion dollar companies, sure, that's a positive. It's an indicator of what's in the ground for DEJ. But ... it is not a predictor. DEJ still has to prove up its own acreage. No one is going to walk in the door and offer a premium to DEJ just because it's got land 10 miles away from a well produced by ECA or WPX. DEJ's fate, its proven, producing reserves and the overall fundamentals of the company are totally independent of what WPX is doing or any other company for that matter. What happens with WPX or Oxy or ECA won't ever be baked into DEJ's stock. It just doesn't work that way.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harold33272 harold33272 Aug 6, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    No offense, but because they're pumping unsubstantiated Internet chatter just as you are.

    I've been in this stock for four years and like you, I want it to go to the moon. I've never sold a share. But with all due respect, hopping on a message board everyday and constantly pumping rumors, innuendo and just pubbing the stock through the roof doesn't change reality or the fundamentals. It also doesn't add to credibility, it actually ruins it.

    There is no way on the planet Hodgkinson is going to deal the company without first exploring every opportunity to push the market cap up several multiples. And the way to do that in the next 12-15 months isn't through a few additional WF wells or by opening a couple of shut-in NG wells at Woodrush; it's through drilling one or two deep verticals directly into the mancos at Kokopelli/Roan Creek. The mancos is a game-changing endeavor for the company. The WF wells, over time, collectively, will add substantial cash flow. No doubt about it. But in the near term, that 12-15 month time frame, there's no bigger catalyst for the company than its activity in the mancos. That's just reality. And they're going to wait on that reality before all this buyout stuff would even be on the table for discussion.

  • harold33272 harold33272 Aug 6, 2014 9:23 AM Flag

    The company is not in buyout talks. Hodgkinson isn't selling DEJ at this time and I don't anticipate he will entertain the thought until "after" they drill a deep vertical into the mancos at Kokopelli and Roan Creek and until after they've put a bit to the ground at North Rangely. The activity in the mancos at Kokopelli and Roan Creek has the potential to double, possibly triple the market cap. So I see virtually no way Hodgkinson would deal the company until after DEJ explored these obviously high reward endeavors. To do so would be foolish and would absolutely not be in the best interest of DEJ or its shareholders.

    Hodgkinson is in the stock between $0.39-$0.41 a share, so he stands to benefit from as large a multiple as possible more so than anyone. And to get a nice premium - to reach that $1.25-1.75+ range - they're going to have to have some producing mancos wells in the fold. That's just reality. The seven additional WF wells at Kokopelli and Woodrush's increased production will not push the stock to those levels. Those events alone won't double or triple the current market cap. But again, successful producing (mancos) wells at Roan Creek and Kokopelli most certainly will. And this is a very realistic goal for DEJ.

    From my perspective, a huge source of encouragement is that it now appears likely DEJ can and will drill a deep vertical into the mancos at Roan Creek on its own, meaning ALL of the revenues from virtually everything that comes out of the ground at Roan Creek will flow directly into the DEJ coffers! With the balance sheet improving and cash flows increasing after the new 7-8 well project and a higher WI with the initial 4-well project at Kokopelli, DEJ will have much of the capital it needs to fund the deep vertical at Roan Creek in early 2015. To not give this piece of the pie to another operator and have this kind of WI to ourselves is substantial in nature. It cannot be overstated.

    This buyout talk is a non-event.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I think I read here sometime awhile back (about a year ago) that the CEO did not like stock splits.

    With consumer staple stocks in particular, I think a stock split at these levels is a good thing. I'm a little surprised MMM and JNJ haven't already split.

    I gather, though ,that KMB won't strongly consider a stock split until after the stock adjusts a bit following the spin-off later this year. I am also hoping for a larger dividend increase from the company in the spring of 2015. I was disappointed with the sub 4% increase this past spring, but given the forthcoming spin-off, I understand.

    Just my $0.02.

  • Reply to

    numbers

    by trevort Apr 16, 2014 2:17 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jun 4, 2014 9:20 PM Flag

    I expect the stock price to be in the $0.03 range in the next couple of months. I backed the truck up in February, but I have been buying more the last couple of weeks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Taking questions for conference on Wed

    by egresslites May 24, 2014 12:27 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 May 25, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    egresslites, if you don't mind, please give me an email to reach you. I have a couple of things I'd like to share with you off line. Thanks.

  • 1. I admit I was expecting a bit more than a 6.1% dividend increase. I felt the company would at least get us in the 7.5-8.3% range ($2.84-2.86 annual dividend). I felt that was more than doable and a proportionate increase.

    2. I've been LONG JNJ for several years and will likely never sell a share. But to the long-time LONGS (those who have held JNJ for many years), how much longer do you see this sitting over $99-100+ a share before the company strongly considers a stock split? I'm a little surprised MMM, CVX and KMB have not announced splits.

    Thanks and GLTA!

  • Reply to

    numbers

    by trevort Apr 16, 2014 2:17 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Apr 22, 2014 8:36 AM Flag

    Wayne Erwin basically saved this company a year ago.

    He needs to put a few more quarters together where the top line revenue is strong and growing, which appears very realistic. The company needs another acquisition or two in the next 12-15 months, which is likely and in that span the company needs to inch closer to selling product (Dotolo). When that happens, OCLG should blow well past $10 million in annual revenue. The company getting Dotolo off the ground and selling product will be a game-changer here.

    Should get really interesting in the next 2-3 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    HERE'S A WILD & CRAZY IDEA.....

    by rbarrygunnarson Apr 13, 2014 11:14 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Apr 14, 2014 7:45 AM Flag

    I can assure you, in no way shape or form would Hodgkinson deal Kokopelli without first drilling a mancos.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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