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ConocoPhillips Message Board

harold33272 57 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 10, 2016 10:42 PM Member since: Dec 26, 2011
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  • Reply to

    New bolt on acquisition announced...

    by krugstoneco Feb 10, 2016 9:22 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Feb 10, 2016 10:42 PM Flag

    #$%$ YOU

  • Reply to

    Bolt on Aquistion???

    by tlhbmwgs Jan 26, 2016 12:05 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jan 26, 2016 7:47 PM Flag

    Because Roan Creek is a pure nat gas play. No one is touching a new nat gas well with a 10-foot pole in this environment. They'd be foolhardy to do so.

    A bolt-on acquisition that could dramatically improve the company's production profile for a song is a much better move. Basically, go pick up another 700-1,500 BOEPD on the cheap. It's a much, much better move for the company long-term. And it positions the company to operate and emerge from a position of strength as commodity prices recover in the coming months. It is a no-brainer.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bolt on Aquistion???

    by tlhbmwgs Jan 26, 2016 12:05 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jan 26, 2016 4:37 PM Flag

    Because Roan Creek isn't going to be developed in 2016 due to Nat Gas being in the tank. No one will drill a deep vertical into the mancos at $2.15 nat gas levels, not DXI, not XOM, not CHK, no one. Roan Creek is something that will have to be developed in 2017.

    However they are in a position to acquire some awfully good producing assets for pennies on the dollar in British Columbia and they would be missing out on a huge opportunity not to take advantage of it. In other words, if you walked into management's office today, this moment and handed them a check for several million, they still wouldn't drill a deep vertical at Roan Creek. But ... at a mere $12 per BOE in Canada with the economies of scale they enjoy, yes, they're going to do a bolt-on acquisition where immediately they can enhance their cash flow, production profile and reserves profile and do so for a song.

    Nothing new is going to be drilled by Coachman/DXI in the Piceance so long as nat gas is at these levels. You're looking at 2017 before any new holes are drilled in the Piceance. And nat gas could move back up to $2.60-2.70 this year, but it will still be 2017 in my opinion.

    The company can grow - exponentially - now, today, at Woodrush and they're going to take the bird in hand and in doing so further improving its economies of scale there. It is a no-brainer. Woodrush can and will get a lot bigger in the coming months. So too will DXI.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    1000!!!!

    by thinking10182 Jan 6, 2016 5:29 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jan 6, 2016 7:23 PM Flag

    They're not going to do a buyback, I assure you. They're going to purchase bolt-on (producing) assets for a song, improving cash flows, production and the reserves profile of the company. And I agree with that. The company is in oil at just $12 per barrel, so while it wants oil at $50-60+ like every other E&P, it can still get cash flows from operations in this tough environment.

    The next 2-3 months will bear very close monitoring of Woodrush. The company is going to be much bigger there in the coming weeks/months IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Extension to Nov. 2018

    by badmagician Jan 6, 2016 12:24 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jan 6, 2016 6:05 PM Flag

    karakoranclimber,

    Please get aids.

    That is all.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    1000!!!!

    by thinking10182 Jan 6, 2016 5:29 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jan 6, 2016 5:32 PM Flag

    And the CEO is again telling us in this release that indeed the company's plans to do a bolt-on acquisition (similar to LEI and SSN, except with much, much less debt involved) are still very much in the works.

    The bolt-on acquisition he's referring to will be at Woodrush IMO.

    This company is about to get much bigger in terms of production and reserves profile.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SSN Acquiring Property As Well

    by aliltruth Jan 6, 2016 9:30 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jan 6, 2016 11:03 AM Flag

    I'm 99.9-percent sure DXI is going to execute a similar, bolt-on/currently-producing transaction at Woodrush. I'd be shocked if we exited the spring and it didn't happen.

    DXI's cost per barrel of oil is a mere $12 and there are a ton of acquisition opportunities and motivated buyers in the vicinity of Woodrush.

    I expect a 500-700+ BOEPD, bolt-on acquisition event for Woodrush. The economies of scale there for the company are just too attractive and it's a direction DXI has wanted to take for a long time. Woodrush will be much, much bigger soon IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Minimum listing standards

    by karakoranclimber Dec 26, 2015 2:06 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Dec 26, 2015 2:20 PM Flag

    Here you are on the day after Christmas trashing a micro-cap oil company?

    This is proof positive that you literally have no life whatsoever. I know your parents must be so proud.

    My God, you must have one heck of a short position on this stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Question again

    by geemoney24 Dec 22, 2015 8:13 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Dec 22, 2015 8:43 AM Flag

    He's not going to sell Roan Creek, no. He's not going to deal Roan Creek until after there is a deep vertical drilled into the mancos there. DXI would be taking tens of millions of dollars off the table if it were to deal Roan Creek now.

    Now, given the lower-for-longer environment in oil/nat gas, I could see management entertaining offers for a proven-up, producing South Kokopelli. I would not discount that possibility. From the sale of South Kokopelli - should such a transaction occur - it would give the company everything it needs to do an outright, all-cash transaction for a bolt-on acquisition at Woodrush, while it could also park the rest of the money on the balance sheet and sit tight through much of 2016 (aside from Woodrush expansion) until it was ready to drill a deep vertical at North Kokopelli and Roan Creek. When it was ready to strike on those projects, it could do so with that cash that it parked on the balance sheet. This scenario, btw, would be something I would very much welcome.

    The company does have a rapport with Larmarie.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Questions

    by geemoney24 Dec 17, 2015 4:27 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Dec 18, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    -- The company is in full compliance with the NYSE/Amex.

    -- The market cap is nothing short of a joke. The company's sour gas processing facility alone at Woodrush is worth more than double the current market cap.

    The company is not in danger of going bankrupt and will report cash flows from operations in mid-February when it reports Q4/2015 earnings. The company's cost is a mere $12 per barrel of oil at Woodrush. The CEO has backstopped the company financially, so DXI is set up to weather this storm until we see more favorable prices in WTI/nat gas in the back end of 2016.

    -- I expect DXI to do a bolt-on acquisition of producing wells/additional acreage at Woodrush in the coming weeks/months. That's a direction the company has wanted to take for some time and I expect that to happen. Also, keep an eye on WPX Energy and the 8K it filed earlier this week. I would not expect for DXI to deal Roan Creek, but there could be an opportunity to book millions from a sale of South Kokopelli if it's attractive enough. That too would open up the door for significantly more expansion opportunities at Woodrush where the company can indeed get positive cash flows from oil even in this pricing environment. I'm watching a possible transaction at WPX closely because DXI may have an opportunity too good to pass up to bring South Kokopelli to the table for a possible sale. Black Hills has been interested in gobbling up more Piceance Basin assets, so I'd certainly call them a candidate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Debt

    by bottomfeeder60 Dec 17, 2015 6:18 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Dec 17, 2015 7:27 PM Flag

    I think anyone with a position in any E&P is going to be impacted by these ridiculously low commodity prices in the interim. The fact that DXI can and will indeed report cash flows from earnings in mid-Feburary (Q4/2015 report) is in and of itself a testament to the stability of the company and its position to weather the storm until WTI and nat gas prices improve.

    The CEO is the company's largest shareholder and debt-holder, he's backstopped the company and isn't going anywhere. Heck, the sour gas processing facility at Woodrush alone is worth more than the current market cap.

    I don't see the company drilling any new wells in 2016 until WTI/nat gas improves, but I do see the company acquiring more producing wells by way of a bolt-on/acquisition to expand Woodrush, especially given the fact the company's operating cost per barrel of oil is a mere $12.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Had a chance to listen to the company's commentary released on its Web site over the weekend.

    Some quick takeaways from the audio presentation:

    1. First and foremost, this company has hunkered down for the long haul and is - as expected - positioned to endure the prolonged slump in commodity prices. Though the company is indeed in a position to weather the storm, it appears its intelligence on commodity prices jives with what most analysts contend; that a rebound in oil/nat gas is likely in the back half of 2016.

    2. As expected, the company is indeed positioning itself to make another acquisition in Canada and by way of a bolt-on acquisition at Woodrush. To belabor the obvious, the company's cost per BOEPD in Canada is a mere $12, so as expected we will see cash flow generated from operations in Q4 earnings (released in mid-February), despite depressed commodity prices.

    3. I full expect the bolt-on acquisition (additional acreage) at Woodrush to contain producing wells. So in addition to the 1,200 BOEPD (which includes the current 500+ BOEPD at South Kokopelli not yet officially announced), again, this could be a 1,700-2,000 BOEPD company in mid to late 2016. And that in and of itself will dramatically improve cash flows, the production profile, reserves profile and subsequently get backed into the stock price.

    4. The company has clarified its debt situation, which I remind readers is still very much serviceable, manageable and owned primarily by the CEO, a 66-year old who has twice founded E&P companies that were later acquired. The company expects to pay down a considerable amount of its Canadian debt in the coming weeks/months.

    5. The company, as expected, remains fully committed to retaining 100% WI in Roan Creek, which proven up with a deep vertical drilled into the mancos will be of a greater (NET) value than DXI's entire Kokopelli holding.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harold33272 harold33272 Dec 5, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    I expect the stock to get a bump in the next two weeks when the company announces flow rates from the eight wells at South Kokopelli. The company will most certainly show additional cash flow from operations with its Q4 earnings release in mid-February, despite the severely depressed commodity prices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    2016 is looking Good for DXI

    by the_floating_fatman Dec 2, 2015 10:15 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Dec 3, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    They're not going to drill a deep vertical at North Kokopelli or Roan Creek with $2.15 nat gas. And neither is anyone else. However, I do think even in this environment it's very reasonable to see them do a bolt-on/expansion at Woodrush. That would not surprise me at all, given that the company's cost is a mere $12.00+ per barrel of oil. I'd be surprised if it didn't happen, actually.

    With the additional 500 BOEPD coming from South Kokopelli (referring to impending flow rates announced) and with likely expansion at Woodrush, I could see the company at 1700-2,000 BOEPD at some point in 2016.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Selling is Over...

    by the_floating_fatman Nov 29, 2015 7:25 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Dec 1, 2015 7:58 PM Flag

    Flow rates and possible further expansion at Woodrush.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Let's assume...

    by bottomfeeder60 Nov 23, 2015 12:55 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Nov 23, 2015 4:21 PM Flag

    Not just no, but hell no. No, I would not do it, because once North Kokopelli has a deep vertical and Roan Creek has a deep vertical, you're looking at much more than a mere $0.80 a share.

    While the company intends to further expand Woodrush and I believe look to purchase additional assets, the two primary catalysts that will have the most dramatic impact on the stock price will be the outright sale of Kokopelli and Roan Creek (following deep verticals at North Kokopelli and Roan Creek; it would be pointless to deal those assets without those events).

    The company's assets, merely proven up, are worth substantially more than $0.80 a share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Let's assume...

    by bottomfeeder60 Nov 23, 2015 12:55 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Nov 23, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    There is no way on the planet Hodgkinson is selling under $1.00. He's not doing all this and staying around at 66 years old for an $0.80 take-home. He's doing this for many multiples of the current stock price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Interesting 4 months and 1 day....

    by johnandjoy1 Nov 20, 2015 7:36 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Nov 21, 2015 3:00 PM Flag

    The numbers are going to be good. I believe that's precisely why they have continued to maintain their guidance of 1,200+ BOEPD. The seven new WF wells and mancos well are what they thought they would be.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Corporate Presentation

    by geemoney24 Nov 16, 2015 8:30 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Nov 17, 2015 9:53 AM Flag

    Because this is a 1200+ BOEPD company with a dramatically enhanced reserves profile, which is significant because that's going to be baked into the eventual sell of these leases. The company - at no prior time - has had over two-dozen wells in full production and 1200+ BOEPD or the recoverable reserves profile it now possesses.

    Net asset value is the primary indicator I evaluate with this company prior to a transactional outcome. Obviously when it books proceeds from the sale of these transactions, that will no doubt be baked into the stock price. The market won't ignore hardboiled cash sitting on the balance sheet. In other words, this company has no interest whatsoever in producing 200+ wells at Kokopelli. That's not the plan. That was never the plan. The plan all along has been to prove up South Kokopelli/North Kokopelli/Roan Creek. That has now been accomplished at South Kokopelli, none of which - absolutely none of which - has been baked into the current stock price. It most certainly will, though, when the company deals the property. And that's why longs are still here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Corporate Presentation

    by geemoney24 Nov 16, 2015 8:30 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Nov 17, 2015 9:16 AM Flag

    The stock is severely undervalued, as is the case with many oil and gas companies. Anyone who does an ounce of due diligence on this company knows that South Kokopelli alone is worth more than the current market cap. This company is worth multiples of what it is currently trading for.

    We know that Bob Hodgkinson has been building this for an eventual transactional outcome. We've known that from the start. And that's why longs are still in the stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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