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ConocoPhillips Message Board

harold33272 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 2, 2015 11:50 PM Member since: Dec 26, 2011
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  • Reply to

    What I don't get...

    by john.swanson27 Jul 2, 2015 6:50 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jul 2, 2015 11:50 PM Flag

    I really don't think this will be an issue once Dejour's management begins announcing initial production numbers for the eight wells in September.

    Bob Hodgkinson is a 65-year old CEO and he's put forth over $6 million of his own money into the company in 2015 alone. Two things: He's married to his money, obviously, so he's not laying down that kind of capital and putting his own skin in the game if he doesn't believe he's going to get "multiples" of that investment. Secondly, at 65 years old, he's not looking to get a return on this investment at 70 years old. He's eyeing a time frame sooner rather than later. On the webcast earlier this year, he talked about a "timely exit" with the company's drilling partner, which tells me DEJ is building toward a transaction regarding Kokopelli with Coachman in 2016 or 2017. (I believe Coachman and DEJ will sell their working interest to a third party simultaneously. Coachman won't be drilling 220+ wells at South/North Kokopelli).

    I believe Hodgkinson has put this money down because he already knows the eight-well program is what he thought it would be. Consider this: Each of the bridge loans, all totaling a combined $6+ million, were issued to the company by Hodgkinson "after" the drilling of the seven new Williams Fork wells (which had logs consistent with other WF production in the area) and the deep vertical (mancos), which has the best logs in the vicinity according to the company's presentation. Translation = Coachman/DEJ hit on these wells.

    I don't like seeing the company be this incredibly undervalued by the market and I don't like seeing the company get this letter from the NYSE/Amex. But when the production profile changes dramatically in late August and when the company's reserve profile changes dramatically in August (to be reported in February, and when the net asset value of the company changes as a result, I don't think you'll see a $0.12 stock price ... not hardly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harold33272 harold33272 Jun 30, 2015 10:17 PM Flag

    goodhumor05, I'm sitting on over 900,000 shares. I've not sold a share since taking a position in 2011. The story is very good and the fundamentals of this company will soon improve dramatically with eight new wells coming online in the next 6-8 weeks.

    Having said that, this is a stock that's littered with retail investors who do not understand the big picture. Moreover, while I understand that it's easier to move the needle with fewer shares outstanding, I also acknowledge that a reverse stock split will not be received well by a lot of retail investors. The stigma alone is a problem for the company, given that the vast majority of the time a reverse stock split is done out of desperation and an attempt to hang on and buy more time to maintain listing requirements. My point is I'd much rather our company do a reverse stock split on our own terms at the time of our choosing rather than being forced to do so by the NYSE/AMEX.

    Hodgkinson also has stated publicly that he is not in favor of a reverse stock split. I'm guessing that he voted against it at yesterday's meeting.

    I'm long and strong here and will remain so, but in a stock widely held by retail investors, it's simply not a positive that we're getting another letter from the NYSE/AMEX regarding a compliance issue.

    Management will have to be increasingly active in updating shareholders once the additional eight wells are placed into production before the end of Q3. It is imperative that the market - namely retail investors - see that our fundamentals are changing before the reverse stock split is executed. It would also help if Coachman moves forward with its 10-well drilling program at South Kokopelli, which we will now have at least a 25% working interest following Mr. Hodgkinson's recent loan to the company. I believe it's possible we can get the additional 10 wells done in Q4. I don't think anything gets done at North Kokopelli or Roan Creek before the end of the calendar year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harold33272 harold33272 May 19, 2015 7:16 PM Flag

    Just in time for Hodgkinson to deal Kokopelli in the spring after a deep vertical at North Kokopelli is completed. Take a portion of the proceeds and drill the deep vertical at Roan Creek and we're on our way. Those events would totally transform this company.

  • harold33272 harold33272 May 10, 2015 3:39 PM Flag

    You don't think JNJ drops back below $100 here in May? That brief bump in the $98+ range was as good as it gets from a pullback standpoint?

  • Reply to

    Split

    by caseevaluator Apr 8, 2015 9:54 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Apr 25, 2015 7:24 PM Flag

    Sooner or later management will have to give this further consideration.

    If they let this thing push up to $180-$190+, my sentiment is that it'll be a 3-for-1 stock split.

  • Reply to

    Annual meeting.

    by nourjianb Apr 23, 2015 9:41 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Apr 24, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    nourjianb, thank you very much for the insight.

    We have been on and off again at or around the $100 mark for the last year. I think when we move past $100 a share for good and we're in the $115-$120+ range, perhaps more consideration will be given.

    I think within the next year staples like JNJ, KMB, PEP and MMM could give more consideration to a split. I'm surprised MMM has gone this long without a split.

    Thank you again for the firsthand report from the meeting.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Annual meeting.

    by nourjianb Apr 23, 2015 9:41 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Apr 24, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    Was there any discussion - any consideration - on a 2-for-1 stock split?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    JNJ a true Cash Cow...

    by imagine4example Apr 23, 2015 11:57 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Apr 23, 2015 3:02 PM Flag

    The bluest of blue-chips. Never sold a share and never will. One of my top three - holy trinity - dividend stocks: JNJ, KO & PG. Never lost an ounce of sleep on these stocks.

    Tremendous American stalwart company. First stock I bought my son.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Spilt announcement tomorrow

    by im_the_reel_slim_shady Apr 22, 2015 10:59 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Apr 23, 2015 9:06 AM Flag

    Would like to see a $3.00 annual dividend and a split. The stock would pull back slightly after the split which would prompt me to back the truck up later this summer.

    Sentiment: Buy

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