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ConocoPhillips Message Board

harold33272 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 28, 2015 4:09 PM Member since: Dec 26, 2011
  • Reply to

    Coachman you suck

    by networthgrowing Jan 28, 2015 2:26 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jan 28, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    I'm not making excuses for the company. And I do demand better. That's why I've written letters to Mr. Hodgkinson and the entire Board of Directors. I just choose to handle that off line. I think the Internet has enough bashers.

    FYI ... Not characterizing you as a basher. You have a right to be critical. Absolutely. I'm merely saying I personally would rather convey my misgivings and questions about things directly to management and the board, although I've been critical several times online. Just a preference.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Coachman you suck

    by networthgrowing Jan 28, 2015 2:26 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jan 28, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    It's costing Coachman money every day they're on site. I expect this to get done asap. I know a deep vertical into the mancos is a different animal relative to the low-hanging fruit (Williams Fork wells), though obviously not as complex as the horizontal operation at nearby wells drilled by WPX.

    Nevertheless, all of this - the new 8-well program - is on a single pad roughly 500 yards from the initial four wells in production at South Kokopelli. Once they wrap up the mancos, I would expect to hear something shortly. It's to everyone's advantage that this get done and announced asap.

    Very important program underway now at Kokopelli that will - as you know - double the company's current BOEPD numbers, double the company's annual top-line revenues and possibly double the company's recoverable reserves profile at Kokopelli, provided the mancos is successful as everyone anticipates. I'm fine with it taking a little time, considering the stakes. I know the bit hit the ground for the mancos in December, but the frack team wasn't going to be on site until sometime in January anyway.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dejour is a value play,despite low commodities

    by southpen4 Jan 26, 2015 2:11 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jan 26, 2015 5:57 PM Flag

    Right on as usual, southpen4.

    It costs Coachman money everyday while on site, so they're working expeditiously to get this done. Really looking forward to the news on South Kokopelli any day.

    We should be a positive EPS stock during or at the end of the second quarter. And that is extremely rare for a micro cap E&P company.

    No debt and double, possibly triple the top line revenue and possibly triple BOEPD (year-over-year) by year-end, not to mention double+ recoverable reserves profile.

    This is a layup.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Can anyone give me the Skinny?

    by longjohnstockman Jan 16, 2015 12:29 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jan 26, 2015 11:57 AM Flag

    If you can hold for two to three years, you're going to make a lot of money. Revenues should be at $30-35 million+ by year end of 2015 with Dotolo (FDA-approved product) out in the market and in the hands of physicians by then. More acquisitions in 2016. CEO is retiring debt, stopping convertible notes and putting cash flow and top line revenue on the books. I expect OCLG to be uplisted to OTC-BB this year. I think AMEX is very realistic in 2016 because at that juncture OCLG will easily have a $15 million+ market cap.

    Fundamentals of this company are rapidly changing. Tangible assets, an FDA-approved product, revenues and cash flow climbing and a lot of additional eyeballs are going to be viewing the stock once it's uplisted.

    I think a $0.35-.60+ share price is realistic in the next 18-24 months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New Rainbow - Three Forks

    by zoom_bee Jan 25, 2015 7:57 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jan 25, 2015 7:37 PM Flag

    zoom_bee,

    Thanks. Just looking for your general outlook for the company.

    I enjoy your insight and due diligence.

  • Reply to

    New Rainbow - Three Forks

    by zoom_bee Jan 25, 2015 7:57 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jan 25, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    zoom_bee, what do you think is realistic for SSN this year both from a BOEPD standpoint and a stock price standpoint?

    Given the enormous cost associated with drilling in the Bakken, after a number of years and the wheels of justice sort of moving exceedingly slow for the company, might management just deal the company for a few multiples in the next 12-18 months? Or do you think they are committed to seeing this through for a few more years?

    I just believe everyone has an exit strategy when you're in the micro cap E&P business, whether it be SSN, DEJ or ROYL, etc. Rarely do these type of companies just hang around for decades. Usually there is an end-game plan or exit strategy where management feels it's in the best interest of shareholders to deal the company.

    Thanks for any insight you may want to share. I enjoy your posts.

  • Reply to

    Why Not A "Buy-Out"

    by rbarrygunnarson Jan 14, 2015 1:06 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jan 14, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    I like management's plan at Woodrush. They recognized an opportunity to pull substantially more revenue from Woodrush relative to years past. I am intrigued with the pipeline and additional sour gas facility because I believe Woodrush can be set up to provide very stable, predictable cash flow for the company in the years to come. And when you're a small cap E&P, you need a good port in a storm. And I think Woodrush satisfies that. I like the economies of scale there. The downside risk is limited and you're dealing with low-hanging fruit, in a sense much the way DEJ enjoys with Williams Fork wells at Kokopelli. Obviously they're two totally different animals.

    I believe the company has three very low risk, high reward assets in Kokopelli, Roan Creek and Woodrush. I think that has to be the focus. I do not foresee any activity of significance at North Rangely, which is obviously a high risk play. I just don't know if the juice is worth the squeeze at North Rangely. I think the company would be best served focusing on Kokopelli, Roan Creek, Woodrush and then purchasing some smaller, distressed oil/gas assets. In other words, drilling for oil at Woodrush and drilling for oil at North Rangely are two totally different animals. This is a micro-cap, so it's my opinion that DEJ doesn't need to spend a lot of time trying to develop North Rangely. They've been fishing a joint venture for North Rangely for several years and no one has come aboard yet. I'm just not sure it's a good situation for DEJ. Suitors know DEJ can't afford to drill there on its own, so they're going to walk through the door wanting basically everything that comes out of the ground. DEJ doesn't want to give that up, obviously.

    The company can buy some distressed oil property elsewhere and not have to go 10,000-15,000 feet into the ground to get some stable, production and long-range returns.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why Not A "Buy-Out"

    by rbarrygunnarson Jan 14, 2015 1:06 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jan 14, 2015 1:55 PM Flag

    DEJ could conceivably be worth $2.25+ in 15-20+ months, but for that to happen, for the company to fetch that kind of multiple, you would have to have a producing mancos/deep vertical at South Kokopelli, North Kokopelli and Roan Creek. I say that because those three events alone would double, possibly triple the company's recoverable reserves. DEJ would be in a position to fetch several multiples of whatever the stock was trading for at that particular time.

    I'm not saying $2.25 isn't realistic. But the low-hanging fruit/Williams Fork wells won't do it. The company has to prove up South Kokopelli/North Kokopelli/Roan Creek with at least one deep vertical apiece and then I think DEJ is a totally different company. These events would dramatically and immediately impact the market cap before a buyout ever occurred.

    Personally, for it's worth, I do not intend to unload my shares (over 900,000) until successful deep verticals are drilled at South, North and Roan Creek. That's the only way we're going to maximize any M&A activity. Hodgkinson also is now 65 years old, so I don't think for a second he's interested in fully developing these three fields in the next 7-10+ years. I think he'd like to see multiples of the stock price in those 10,000,000 shares he holds. And as of last fall he was in the stock at around $0.39 a share. I'm speculating but I don't think he has hung around for a decade to fetch a two-bagger. I think he's looking for several multiples of where he is in the stock. And he knows it's not happening without mancos activity.

    I have no idea what the stock price will be when those three events occur. But I know in order for us to maximize any M&A activity, they're going to have to take place. And that's what I'm waiting on.

    Just some two cents from someone who's been in the stock since 2011.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    OCLG Growing

    by westorange1945 Jan 7, 2015 11:28 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Jan 9, 2015 6:23 PM Flag

    Most certainly undervalued. They should have some good cash flow in the coffers in Q2, certainly by Q3 with the launch of Dotolo into the hands of physicians (FDA-approved product which has very good margins) and with another major acquisition which should be done in late January/February.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Could we get Mancos news today?

    by justthefactsdudes Dec 18, 2014 10:39 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Dec 18, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    Mancos should be wrapped up around Dec. 20-22, however ... I would not expect anything significant in the way of news from Kokopelli until sometime in late January/February. The frack team won't even be on site until sometime in that time frame. Until they've done their work, I wouldn't expect any hardboiled numbers.

    Everyone's encouraged, obviously, but to actually quantify what's coming out of the ground at both Woodrush and Kokopelli with the new wells, we're going to have to wait until late Jan/Feb for that information.

    So essentially this is a Q1/2015 event. Revenues (from the new wells at Kokopelli and Woodrush) for the company should jump dramatically and show up on the balance sheet in Q1-2015 and fully in Q2-2015's report. It's my expectation that once the company has the additional cash flow from Kokopelli in late Q1/2015 and into Q2/2015, they'll ramp up plans at Roan Creek. A deep vertical at Roan Creek could still be done in Q3-2015/Q4-2015.

    Should be a much different company in 2015 with - finally - a positive EPS stock following reporting on Q2-2015. To be a small cap energy company and to be evaluated on a positive EPS basis by the market, finally, will be significant IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Thinking about backing the truck up. Got in at $$39.80 the day after Thanksgiving. Trying to round up some additional dry powder here.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    PEP last split was in 96....

    by insurancefla1 Nov 19, 2014 8:58 AM
    harold33272 harold33272 Dec 8, 2014 4:08 PM Flag

    2015 could certainly be the year of the split for several stocks, including PEP.

    I think there's a very good chance JNJ, MMM, GPC, LMT, GD, KMB and CLX split in 2015.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Q3 & Beyond

    by goodhumor5 Nov 11, 2014 4:12 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Nov 12, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    Hodgkinson must take every step to avoid further dilution. If indeed the bulk of the funds raised for Roan Creek and further Kokopelli development in 2015 is produced via an offering, it's quite possible we could exit 2015 with triple the shares outstanding at the time Hodgkinson joined the company a decade ago. Let that sink in for just a moment; from the time he joined the company a decade ago until year-end 2015, we will have tripled the shares outstanding, which as you know makes it increasingly difficult to move the dial.

    The overall story is great. But their most recent round of dilution killed the best rally we had in the stock in two years. I'm no fan of debt, but you could suck the natural gas and NGLs out of the ground with a straw at Kokopelli. This is low-risk. It's a predictable, stable cash flow machine. Therefore I am fine with the company funding a portion of the Kokopelli development with a bank line and likewise with the deep vertical at Roan Creek, which at the earliest would be a Q3/2015 event.

    Essentially, we do not need to exit 2015 with 230-250+ million shares outstanding.

    We are at the doorstep of placing another 10+ wells online, wells which have been fully funded. The revenues from these operations should substantially improve the balance sheet and give us the opportunity to - finally - become a positive EPS story by Q2/2015.

    Hodgkinson is no different than any other CEO of a publicly traded company. He simply must be judged by the stock price. That is the only barometer at the end of the day by which he must be judged. We now have a decade with which to judge his stewardship of the company. I'll let everyone take a look at the chart over the last 7 years and look at the obvious. Provided execution occurs on these wells in the coming weeks/months, Hodgkinson has a chance to really build some goodwill with shareholders. More dilution, though, will surely negatively impact that effort with long-suffering shareholders.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividend Increase

    by chicago1957 Nov 1, 2014 7:44 PM
    harold33272 harold33272 Nov 7, 2014 10:16 PM Flag

    It is my hope that the company puts forth more consideration for a higher dividend increase this time around. I know we've been spoiled over the years but I admit I expected more than a 6% increase earlier this year. I'd like to see something in the 9-10% + range next spring. And considering that the stock price should continue to trade above $100 a share, I would think a split would be announced as well.

    Looks like several stocks in my portfolio may consider a split in 2015: JNJ, MMM, GPC, PEP, KMB, CLX. Looks like PG may be a couple years away from a split.

COP
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