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Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

harryavnr 292 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 27, 2014 9:48 AM Member since: Jan 30, 2013
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  • what a gift take advantage

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Endocyte, Inc. (ECYT-OUTPERFORM): Adding to Best Ideas List; Positive EU CHMP Opinion and Positive Phase 2b TARGET Trial Results; Raising PT to $65

    The Wedbush Investment Committee is adding ECYT to the Best Ideas List. We believe positive PFS and OS data in lung cancer de-risk ECYT's small molecule drug conjugate technology platform and suggest to us a broader opportunity for VYNFINIT and ECYT's tubulysin pipeline drug than is being valued by the Street. We expect recognition of the broad utility of ECYT's platform technology and positive 2014 updates from PROCEED and TARGET to drive further appreciation of ECYT's shares.
    The EU CHMP announced a positive recommendation for the approval of VYNFINIT (vintafolide) and its companion imaging test FOLCEPRI (etarfolatide) in the platinum-resistant ovarian cancer setting. ECYT commented that by year end, they expect reimbursement to be in place for 40% of the potential patient population for both VYNFINIT and the companion imaging test. We put the market opportunity for VYNFINIT at 16,400 patients per year in the EU and model peak sales at $430M.
    Top-line TARGET results (vintafolide/docetaxel combination therapy in the folate receptor positive non small cell lung cancer setting) demonstrated positive progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) trends. OS is expected to be mature by YE:14. Data to date indicate that patients in the vintafolide and docetaxel combination arm were 25% less likely to have disease progressing or death compared to the docetaxel-only arm with a PFS HR of 0.75, p-value 0.0696, one-sided test. The median OS has been reached for the vintafolide/docetaxel monotherapy arms, but not yet for the combination arm.
    Raising our price target to $65 from $23. We are updating our model to refine our U.S. and EU folate receptor positive platinum resistant ovarian cancer estimates, and are adding in the NSCLC adenocarcinoma opportunity, and the corresponding sales and marketing costs. Our model doe

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Curis, Inc. (CRIS-OUTPERFORM): Erivedge ERIVANCE 24-month Update - Upside in New Indications for Erivedge - '427 Clinical Hold Lifting Soon - Reiterate OUTPERFORM
    Price: $2.82 Price Target: $6.00
    At the American Academy of Dermatology annual meeting (March 21-25, Denver, CO) Curis and partner Roche presented data from two studies of Erivedge in Basal Cell Carcinoma (BCC), one in operable BCC and a 24-month update from the pivotal trial, ERIVANCE, in metastatic and locally advanced Basal Cell Carcinoma (BCC).
    ERIVANCE Data Update: 24-months follow-up data after the primary analysis at 9-months (Sekulic 2012) revealed that one further patient in the ERIVANCE metastatic Basal Cell Carcinoma (mBCC) arm responded to treatment, increasing the investigator-assessed ORR to 48.5% from 45.5% (pages 3-4). ERIVANCE enrolled 104 pts with locally adv. BCC (laBCC, n=63) or metastatic BCC (mBCC, n=33) in two cohorts to investigate the safety and efficacy of Erivedge.
    Operable BCC Data from Cohorts 2 & 3: In a Phase II trial of Erivedge in operable BCC, treatment resulted in complete histological clearance (CHC) in 42% of patients in cohort 1 (Gross 2012), 44% of patients in cohort 3 and durable CHC in 16% of patients in cohort 2 (pages 5-6). Results presented at AAD did not meet the predefined criteria of 50% CHC in cohorts 1 and 3 and 30% CHC in cohort 2. This Phase II trial enrolled 74 patients with nodular, operable, BCC to test three different dosing schedules of Erivedge. Patients received in cohort 1: 150 mg/day for 12 weeks, cohort 2: 150 mg/day 24 weeks and cohort 3: 150 mg/day for 8 weeks followed by a 4 week holiday and another 8 weeks of treatment, for a 20 week treatment cycle.
    Erivedge revenues continue to track towards our 2014 estimates of $110M. We believe their remains potentially significant upside to Erivedge sales in BCC as the U.S. market is more deeply penetrated and as EU sales begin to materialize. Even in light of recently presented data we note that the current on-label opportunity for Erivedge in the U.S. and pending EU launch is large, representing 12,000 patients in the top-5 jurisdictions, we believe there is upside to Erivedge sales in 2014 and 2015.
    We reiterate our belief that Erivedge will find broad use in oncology as the only available hedgehog pathway inhibitor. We see the future of chemotherapy moving toward combination therapy to increase efficacy and ameliorate the poor safety profile of many effective anti-cancer drugs. Erivedge is currently being test in combination with Avastin, Erbitux, Notch inhibitors (RO4929097) and multiple chemotherapy regimes including FOLFOX, FOLFIRI, gemcitabine and cisplatin.
    Aberrant reactivation of hedgehog signaling has been described in a wide variety of human cancers, including cancer stem cells, and is differentiated from the genetic mutations in the hedgehog pathway that drive basal cell carcinomas. Most notably, recent studies have suggested that ligand-dependent abnormal signaling in the hedgehog pathway may be associated with the proliferation of AML and MDS cells.
    We anticipate that the next significant catalyst for CRIS is lifting of partial clinical hold on CUDC-427 in Q1:14. Our checks suggest that CRIS has submitted a compressive data package to the FDA and included new dosing schedule details (more like the Roche Phase I) and risk-mitigation strategies for future trials of '427 in combination with capecitabine.
    Curis will be presenting preclinical data for CUDC-907 (Abs #1879) and CUDC-427 (Abs #917) at the American Association for Cancer Research -- AACR, April 5-9, 2014 (San Diego, CA).
    We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating and 12-month price target of $6/share.
    Deeper AAD Data Review and Erivedge Trial Summary Pages 3-8 of Note

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • $3.60 plenty of support in place and if hold we should see $3.90 in few days...

    Buy on fear when everyone is selling i guess throw the BABY with the BATH WATER

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Look like someone may be rolling them over
    .35 cent to .73 cents month extension

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harryavnr harryavnr Mar 24, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    option Assignment nothing more - this is expected

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Total Rx are DOWN -94 (-5.1%) | 1752 vs. 1846 last week

    New Rx are DOWN -19 (-2.3%) | 807 vs. 826 last week

    Repeat Rx are DOWN -75 (-7.4%) | 945 vs. 1020 last week

    Total Pills Sold are DOWN -5102 (-4.4%) | 110,510 vs. 115,612 last
    week

    Unique Writer Count is DOWN 62 (6.3%) | 916 vs. 978 last week

    Industry Trends

    New scripts of retail drug launches for CNS indications are trending DOWN on a week-over-week basis
    Overall weekly retail drug sales are UP 0.7% with branded experiencing a 1.1% INCREASE and
    generics experiencing a 0.4% INCREASE on a week-over-4-week average basis

    IMS REPORT BELOW MARCH 7TH

    · Total Capsules: -6.4% w/w (approx: 227,195)
    · LTC Capsules: -6.9% w/w
    · Retail Capsules: -5.8% w/w

    TRx: 6,029
    NRx: 1,617

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Wedbush data March 14

    by harryavnr Mar 21, 2014 3:39 PM
    harryavnr harryavnr Mar 21, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    Will update full report later busy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harryavnr by harryavnr Mar 21, 2014 3:39 PM Flag

    NUEDEXTA Total Rx's are DOWN -94 -- decreasing by -5.1% w/w vs. increasing by 4.9% w/w last week

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harryavnr harryavnr Mar 21, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    IMS will be coming within the HOUR and WEBUSH will be after 1.00 PM CST

    Will POST IT AS SOON AS I GET BOTH OF THEM

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Dr. Corrigan currently serves as president and chief executive officer of Zalicus Inc. a public biopharmaceutical company, a position he has held since January 2010. He has also served as a director of Zalicus and its progenitor companies since December 2006. Prior to Zalicus, Dr. Corrigan served as executive vice president, research and development at Sepracor, Inc. (now known as Sunovion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.). Prior to joining Sepracor, Dr. Corrigan spent 10 years with Pharmacia & Upjohn, a pharmaceutical company acquired by Pfizer, Inc. in 2003, most recently as group vice president of Global Clinical Research and Experimental Medicine. Prior to joining the pharmaceutical industry, Dr. Corrigan spent five years in academic research at the University of North Carolina Medical School, focusing on psychoneuroendocrinology. Dr. Corrigan has also been a member of the board of directors and audit committee of Cubist Pharmaceuticals, Inc. since June 2008. Dr. Corrigan holds a B.A. and an M.D. from the University of Virginia and subsequently received specialty training in Psychiatry at Cornell and Maine Medical Center.

    "It is a pleasure to welcome Mark to the Avanir Board," commented Craig Wheeler, chairman of the board, "Mark brings many years of experience in the healthcare sector combined with a deep knowledge of CNS research and development together with broad experience in guiding the growth of biopharma companies. I look forward to the insights he will bring to our board and to working with him as Avanir pursues its growth initiatives."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nuedexta Numbers – March 7th

    by tomollie3 Mar 14, 2014 2:51 PM
    harryavnr harryavnr Mar 16, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    I see my Original post was deleted but it ok I can always re post as many times it get deleted so no problem SHORTY

    Recent Drug Launch Weekly Retail Sales Tracker - Week Ended March 7

    Total Rx are UP 87 (4.9%) | 1846 vs. 1759 last week

    New Rx are UP 57 (7.4%) | 826 vs. 769 last week

    Repeat Rx are UP 30 (3.0%) | 1020 vs. 990 last week

    Total Pills Sold are UP 5956 (5.4%) | 115,612 vs. 109,656 last
    week

    Unique Writer Count is UP 64 (7.0%) | 978 vs. 914 last week

    Industry Trends
    New scripts of retail drug launches for CNS indications are trending UP on a week-over-week basis
    Overall weekly retail drug sales are UP 4.6% with branded experiencing a 4.9% INCREASE and
    generics experiencing a 4.4% INCREASE on a week-over-4-week average basis

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I see my Original post was deleted but it ok I can always re post as many times it get deleted so no problem SHORTY

    Recent Drug Launch Weekly Retail Sales Tracker - Week Ended March 7

    Total Rx are UP 87 (4.9%) | 1846 vs. 1759 last week

    New Rx are UP 57 (7.4%) | 826 vs. 769 last week

    Repeat Rx are UP 30 (3.0%) | 1020 vs. 990 last week

    Total Pills Sold are UP 5956 (5.4%) | 115,612 vs. 109,656 last
    week

    Unique Writer Count is UP 64 (7.0%) | 978 vs. 914 last week

    Industry Trends
    New scripts of retail drug launches for CNS indications are trending UP on a week-over-week basis
    Overall weekly retail drug sales are UP 4.6% with branded experiencing a 4.9% INCREASE and
    generics experiencing a 4.4% INCREASE on a week-over-4-week average basis

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harryavnr harryavnr Mar 7, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    Anytime - I will post IMS - Wedbush data if fellow longs want them.

    I am pretty much done with this Message Board will help out fellow longs on data

    enjoy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    IMS Numbers...trend...

    by placesontherun37 Mar 7, 2014 1:19 PM
    harryavnr harryavnr Mar 7, 2014 2:47 PM Flag

    place send me an email i will send you the pdf file full report

    harryavnr at yahooo

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harryavnr harryavnr Mar 7, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    they have everything in graph format email me i will send you the report you can extract the data and graphs

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Repeat Rx are DOWN -186 (-5.8%) | 3004 vs. 3190 last week

    compare to AVNR we are rocking

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This is for the naysayer yes i have access to all the IMS - WEDBUSH and all other research tool data

    I decided not to post but it is time fellow longs got more information...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Recent Drug Launch Weekly Retail Sales Tracker - Week Ended Feb. 28
    NUEDEXTA - Avanir (AVNR: Outperform
    Total Rx are UP 173 (10.9%) | 1759 vs. 1586 last week
    New Rx are UP 35 (4.8%) | 769 vs. 734 last week
    Repeat Rx are UP 138 (16.2%) | 990 vs. 852 last week
    Total Pills Sold are UP 11635 (11.9%) | 109,656 vs. 98,021 last week
    Unique Writer Count is UP 75 (8.9%) | 914 vs. 839 last week

    Industry Trends
    New scripts of retail drug launches for CNS indications are trending UP on a week-over-week basis
    Overall weekly retail drug sales are UP 2.3% with branded experiencing a 2.8% INCREASE and
    generics experiencing a 1.9% INCREASE on a week-over-4-week average basis

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • harryavnr harryavnr Mar 7, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    Jean - Yes i can get the WEDBUSH number on a weekly bases.

    Let me send a message to my friends in CA he will send me the info....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

AVNR
3.46+0.04(+1.17%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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