More uncertainties. German Court yet to rule on ECB debt buying legalities. Swiss vote on gold reserve November 30. Russia to recognize Donbass election. Russian bombers increased sorties along NATO borders. Iraq,Libya,Syria,Egypt, Yemen crumbling to pieces.
Here we are on the eve of all of this , gold is breaking two year low and support.
Putin: Odds of war between major nations increasing.
I made the mistake to panic buy , move money into 'defensive' companies namely food last month and caught the 10% downdraft last week. This is why I figured SAFM has more downside. The swine virus drove pork price up 80% this year. rising tide floats all boats. Chicken price is up about 50% thus the Sanderson rally.
This price rise is not sustainable. Has begun falling this month. I see wings adverrtised for 99 cent on sale this week. It was $2.49 last month. Do expect SAFM to give back all the gains of 2014 and then some. The party is over.
Up but its already up 8% and Fed has expressed displeasure, concern. The move may already be priced in.
Where will the hot money flow to next is the question. Into another fiat currency ? At least a fraction of it will go into gold. Given the size of hot money in foreign exchange markets vs the size of gold market. A fraction is all we need to pump gold to $1500.
Interesting. VGK is 20% off 2014 high. RSX is 30% off two year high. Spy is 5% off 2014 high. There are some giant conglomerates ,very solid earnings. I like VGK. RSX is 50% commodity and oil. Very speculative. But if peace prevails...........
If gold rally back to 1218 (last night Asia) in Asia tonight and stay there. It will signal a bottom. Asian demand drove price up last night. The demand is still there. US oil price has no effect on that demand.
It rallied to 1218 last night due to physical demand . This demand will still be there tonight.
Today's oil inventory report in US dropped oil $1.50. Everyone going ga ga no inflation.and shorts more gold.
What we pay for oil has no effect on Asia. Has no effect on Euro. Euro is up today and holding.
I think today's trading is all technical. Oil price here does not change price ,demand in Asia. Its not even having any effect on Euro which is up nicely. What Chinese are willing to pay in RMB will set price going forward. Gold rallied $10 last night in Asia to 1218. I think we revisit 1218 tonight. This may turn out to be a one day correction.
Cheap oil reduces miner cost. Cheap gas boosts consumer spending on jewelry. Plenty of calamity await us around the world.
Stealth rally. Where are the bears ? They were supposed to pound it at 1213 and now 1218. No show so far...... Maybe bullion banks have gone long. A short squeeze now ? Would be volcanic.
used the money to go long stock. Stock is now falling so they will be selling stock. return the funds to gold. We could see a good short covering rally. Coinciding with Indian festival, wedding season. Followed by Chinese new year.
Global market panic. Chinese come back from long weekend. Everyone so scared of gold going to $1050 no one is buying gold. Yet , gold has rallied from 1184 to 1211 in matter of days. No one has an explanation for this.
Auto,housing, all peaked. Ebola could grind world economy to a halt. Even if it doesn't become epidemic in the States due to good hygiene. It will spread wide and far in Asia, Latin America. and of course Africa. Time to protect your money. Corporate profit will disappear with customers. Gov't will print trillions and trillions to salvage economy.
You are assuming there will be no war, no financial crises , no recession, no epidemic,no terror attack, no political crises, no crises of any kind for the next 5 years. And central banks will all happily accumulate more US$,not buying any more gold. And miners all happily producing gold at a loss without going bankrupt. In which case physical supply disappears causing all the Comex short sellers unable to buyback or deliver physical gold. Gold sprints to $5000 in that scenario.