Euro touched 1.2 in 2010 and 2012. First becaused of financial crises panic buying everyone moved money into US$. Second one because of PIIGS debt crises. Panic sent Euro to 1.22. This time is mere small interest rate difference. 1.285 was touched many times in 2013 during the Greek crises and held.
And I see ISIS uprising spread into Egypt, Jordan, Yeman, Tunis, Morocco, grand prize is Saudi Arabia.
I see resurgence of Afgan , Pakistan fighting.
Happy time for US military indutrial complex again. Too bad for the deficit and debt.
I see Asian demand coming back sometime.
I see China central bank buying sometime, near miners production cost. 40% Chinese mines already shut.
I see cold front sending US econ number in deep freeze sometime,driving $ down
I see Europe ,China econ improve from their latest QE sometime. Driving Euro back up
None of it happening yet. But the first two are within reach. . B e patient
$40 Billion revenue. $14 Billion free cash flow. They can cut capital expense (new mines) when price is down. Dividend should be safe in this enviroment.
The Chinese miners are getting killed.
And oil also following Euro down 1% today. If you are long gold , just imagine you can buy the same amount of Euro as two month ago, same amount of oil. Your gold didn't depreciate, your dollar assets have risen instead.
Gold is a currency. It is following Euro down. This may continue a while. I still think physical demand come in next week with Indian festivity , wedding season.
People are selling, de risking Scotland election today.
Too much headwind. Europe ,China, Japan all slowing. US$ rising. Industry overcapacity.
Looks like Euro is going to 1.20, Now 1.285. Maybe time to buy is Euro hit 1.20.
BHP cost $45. Chinese miners cost $90. Chinese port inventor down to nothing. Half Chinese mines already closed. Just a little longer the other half will shut. Happy days will be here again.
Bring it on please. I'm waiting for it forever. Going to load up for the Diwali, Wedding,Christmas ,Chinese New Year buying season.
More likely boost British pound. Leading us lower US$.
Maybe gold retest Thursday New York low 1216. Thats it. bottom is in.
I think Asia will buy gold tonight. They've came in every night. Europeans might do so too on Scots vote. Tomorrow morning unemployment claim. High US$ very damaging to jobs. A weak number gold goes back up Shorts should cover now.
I've also notice this. Very interesting gold goes down everyday, miners don't follow.
I've also noticed gold goes up everyday when Hong Kong market opens, Gold goes down when Comex opens. I think Asian demand is back. China central bank have came in bought gold every time gold drop to 1200. I think they are in the market now.
Jewelry demand still good. Year on year still growing. It is true there are no long lines people buying gold bars. Goldman Sach got everyone scared now so sentiment is extremely gloomy. But sentiment can change overnight. It is paper gold future selling driving price down.
We have 80,000 lawyers imbeciles running Washington. You can count on bad things happen. Pope Francis said today WW III has started piecemeal. Wars all over the globe. Washington is instigating national,religious, ehtnics groups killing each other.
Now they are telling us Sept 9 ~ 24 is inauspicious ,associated with death rituals. Not good time to buy gold.
Looks like the dark cloud will not lift just yet. Shorts will continue pressing their bet.
Its interesting watching GLD. Inventory has stabilized. Weak hands selling have been met by new buyers. Good sign. Central banks and now hedge funds have shorted 30,000 tons of the stuff. They have to cover, they have to keep price above production cost of miners. Many Chinese mines have already closed.
Tell us where gold itself is going short term. Elliott Wave.
One technician I know is saying $1226.