Seek life Elsewhere. You have lost. VRTX will have two approved drugs soon, and continued expansion of their labels. At any moment a large pharma seeking such increasing revenue could make a bid. As a long (disclosure been long since the 20s) its comical to read about fake drop out rates (kuzykalex), the "biotech guru" piping non-existent phase 1 competitors (?how many years to a successful ph3 outcome) and the other dimwitted no names trying to post messages to scare investors and actually cause a drop in share price. Really? The reason some intelligent posters are here is to have a discussion of the science and the potential to help a patient population that has no good treatment modalities currently. They need even better drugs that what will be approved shortly. Not approving these upcoming drugs will limit research and innovation. At the end of the day, this is not just a stock, it is a hope to at least stabilize lung function and quality of life of people that did not volunteer to have such an illness. There are better stocks out there to short and ones that should not be supported by the social conscious.
You are no guru. There is no genie in Berkley, all shorts of VRTX burn now and in the future. Long and strong since the roaring 20s.
You always impress me with the obscure finds that you post. You are right to mention those names, they have been in this stock early and long! It is time for VRTX to start developing outside of CF, and to make bigger advances into CF with non-pharmacologic means as well.
Very superficial article, I just read it. They did not elaborate on the FDAs notes heading into the meeting. However, the best points were the comments from readers that argued against certain pharmacy benefit managers starting to complain about the cost potential of Orkambi. The readers diligently pointed out that Kalydeco isn't breaking the overall bank at 300K and that we are talking about 8500 patients. The pharmacy benefit managers rather put their profits into the CEO's pockets.
Absolutely Verity. As a Cardiologist, but not a physician, the role of the FDA in this case is to determine does the drug have efficacy (yes), is it safe (yes) then leave it up to physicians taking care of these patients to prescribe or not. These patients right now don't have any better option currently. I want to see them preserve their lung function and have less pulmonary exacerbations. Every visit to the hospital exposes any patient to virulent pathogens.
Agreed. With the HepC patients mostly international GILD revenue cannot be sustained. Acquiring VRTX CF franchise and pipeline would help sustain it over the long haul. If GILD pursues smaller targets, they will not be able to sustain current earnings IMHO.
He did not mention more competition. If anything having all combination compounds in-house will be a pricing and competitive advantage in the future. If upcoming data is as good as the smaller data sets, this will be a rocket within the next 12 months.
Imagine if they hadn't bought Aurora? This company would not exist. The entire company lacks vision at multiple levels of management. That is why it should be taken over by management that has a track record of execution. One day I will post more. The CF franchise will protect the company for at least 3-4 years going forward.
The analyst actually had a well thought out opinion. IRAK4 plus the in house proprietary TG molecules could attack B-cell malignancies via 3 inhibition pathways. If side effects are minimal this could add on to an already effective regimen. Imbruvica alone won't be the best choice and the side effects listed could limit duration for patients that need longer courses. I believe someone else than AbbieVie will buy out TGTX next year or after unblinding of the first phase 3 study or all proprietary study. They won't let it run up like PCYC. That being said, I believe something in the 4-5 billion range would be a target.
Glad, Third, Verity, Qdelfan, Rojo, I have been long and still am long with VRTX. I believe it will generate significant revenue starting very soon. I hope vx-661 data is promising and we may eventually see 10B in Revenue in CF alone. Galapagos, ProQR are at least 5 years away. My hope is by that time VRTX will have other compounds that may be even better than what they have now, and have made progress on the gene editing/RNA corrective approaches. Vx-970 may be a gateway into solid tumor therapy. If the anti-lingo platform pans out...how exciting! I would like your thoughts on TGTX. I came to know of them via their collaboration with PCYC which I bought some around 85-105. TGTX has a phase 3 trial with Imbruvica which seems to increase the efficacy in CLL without increasing toxicity. TGTX also has their own propietary compounds that they are developing as a potential competitor to Imbruvica. Its market cap is still below 1B. The company website has some excellent presentations to better understand the data and science. The CEO is a lawyer that has impressed me with his acquired skill to present the science. Look forward to your thoughts.
Rojo, I recall you posting this a ways back. You might be onto something. Can you PM me?
and VRTX will see 6B in Revenue a lot faster than the old PCYC
If TGTX is not taken out by a large pharma (gild, pfe, takeda, nvs) it will still be a major winner in less than 18 months. That being said, not sure why a pharma doesn't take them out sooner with such a low market cap now as opposed to later. Sure, more clarity on the data will help reduce risk, but they will have to weigh that with paying more. It may turn out that TGTX's in-house portfolio outcompetes Imbruvica completely and whomever doesn't win the bidding war takes a hard look at TGTX at a better valuation.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Blue, enjoy your well thought out posts. Given the future pricing constraints in oncology will be targeted (ExpressScripts CEO said such) having a full array of assets within one company is advantageous. Imbruvica may need to be paired with outside complementary molecules which will limit this flexibility. TGTX could come in with comparable efficacy and better pricing pressure.
I really wish some of the newbies wouldn't post. Ralphie...please go to nasdaq after hours and look at the volume and trades. 16:14 16252 shares traded @ 111.60, final trade of night 100 shares at 109.27. Is it really down big after hours?
Papa, A long time to market and proof of tolerable side effects. VRTX will have a triple combo in the works probably arriving at the same time.