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GT Advanced Technologies, Inc. Message Board

haschultz1 119 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Apr 27, 2001
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  • haschultz1 haschultz1 5 hours ago Flag

    Note also that those who watched and then acted on the Jan 16 major options action where the MM's took HIMX down to $7 are up over 20% on those shares.........after today's $0.75 drop.

    Again, it all about positioning one's self as there are just too many positives, seen by too many people, for HIMX not to appreciate with time. And, they are more than fairly valued here so the downside is limited.

    Watch the MM's and buy on weakness.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 5 hours ago Flag

    Hey tb2ker,

    Yes, what's the rationale for $10 on Feb 13? This can't be option related as there are no $9 or $10 options shown for that date; the highest is $8.50. Now, there are a lot of $10 calls on the major Feb'15 options which is Feb 20th.

    I think today's action was a combination of this Friday's option expiration (want it below $8.50 and perhaps even $8 if they can) & the recent, rapid run-up this week attracting shorts.

    Look at how HIMX traded into the $8.50's around 1.5 million shares. The other 5.1 million shares traded today just kept this at this price level so that was mostly scared traders selling out to stronger hands...and MM's and others 'managing' the price in this level.

    Every time the price started to recover and go over $8.65 or so, there was a wave of selling. Real sellers, trying to get as high a price as they can for their shares, don't throw larger blocks at the bid to crash the stock price. That is someone(s) wanting to keep the price lower.

    The other things I noticed is that the same MM had large bids and asks; only $0.01 apart. Why these were not resolved in-house is interesting. It was like they wanted the price to stay lower.........so they could buy shares.

    In the long run, remember that large price spikes will attract short sellers and others and today was a part of that also. But, HIMX has a lot going for it. If you are a long term investor, you should want slower gains which are consolidated. Only the traders like this sort of volatility....and even they can lose with it.

    HIMX has much good news coming...but the financial results of revenue and earnings will be later this year (perhaps good 3Q guidance in August). Right now, is the time to buy on weakness and get positioned for what we, BoA/ML and many other analysts are expecting good things.

    Remember that HIMX is working with world class leaders on things they came to HIMX to work on together & HIMX added people for these projects.

    See after hours trading.

  • Reply to

    Merrill Lynch prediction eps $1 for 2015

    by wc.farwell Jan 28, 2015 12:24 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 28, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    Hey mawchek,

    Since HIMX pays out a good share of their earnings as a dividend the following year (advantageous tax treatment in Taiwan), the 2015 EPS of $0.748 could be a $0.40+ dividend in July 2016.

    The 2016 EPS of $1.062 could become a $0.50+ dividend in July 2017.

    I would suspect that at some point, HIMX goes to quarterly dividends.

    Anyone who joined me in selling June 2015 Puts on option expiration Friday of 1/16/2015 (when MM's pushed the share price down to $7) is doing very well. The Jan 2016 Puts are still attractively priced although mine sold some time back are well in the money now.

  • Reply to

    short interest.

    by jarhead19881992 Jan 27, 2015 5:50 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 27, 2015 5:57 PM Flag

    Hey jarhead,

    Yes, I was just checking this out. I was also surprised due to the trading pattern in the first part of Jan 2015.

    Below is some historical context for HIMX. While it would have been nice to see the short interest higher, it does show that fewer and fewer see any downside potential for HIMX.

    Settlement Date Short Interest
    1/15/2015 1,994,763
    12/31/2014 2,692,114
    12/15/2014 3,650,287
    11/28/2014 2,772,031
    11/14/2014 3,951,826

  • Reply to

    Bullish crossover ahead

    by amigolikes808 Jan 26, 2015 3:56 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 27, 2015 3:59 PM Flag

    Hey danfinn61,

    Good comments on charting as the need for the MA's to be rising is key.

    The reason for your 200 DMA to be different in your 6 month and 3 month example is that there are not 200 trading days in these examples so these are not real 200 DMA's. The 50 day MA is the same in your example as there are 50 days of data in both cases....and would be the same 50 days.

    I generally do not trade but invest. I do use charts to help time and find the right buy and sell prices....but certainly do not use them to trade. And, they are also less useful near earnings report time as that is when a lot of new data is introduced and thus the charts are less important.

  • Reply to

    where have all the pumpers gone..

    by jdunef Jan 26, 2015 10:31 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 26, 2015 1:51 PM Flag

    Hey jdunef,

    I generally refrain from replying to your posts as you add nothing here. But, I will help you this one last time:

    We don't need to pump HIMX as Bank of America/Merrill Lynch is taking on that task for us!!!!

    NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of Himax Technologies (HIMX - Get Report) popped 9.28% to $8.72 in morning trading Monday after Bank of America/Merrill Lynch named the semiconductor company as a top pick for 2015.

    Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst Daniel Heyler named the company as his top pick in display ICs. The firm increased its price target on the stock to $12.50 and expects earnings per share of $1.

  • Reply to

    I suspected it

    by smtl2000 Jan 26, 2015 12:28 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 26, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    Hey smtl2000,

    I think the PR was just a message to prevent ill conceived rumors....but no real hidden message. I suspect they did this on advisement from Northland although that is only a guess.

    If you followed HIMX long enough, you will note they did this once before........in much the same circumstances....and this was sometime after Northland invited them to their offices after an Investor's Conference.

    I appreciated HIMX management coming out with the PR they did and I wrote their Investor's Department (including Jackie) expressing my appreciation (think I posted my email on this Message Board).

  • Just thought I would mention that selling Jan 2016 Puts have some really good value here and allow you to either get shares for well less than today's $8.95 or get money for nothing.

    The Jan 2016 Put Options are bidding:

    + $1 for the $7 Puts (net price of $6/share if HIMX is below $7/share on 1/15/2016)
    + $2.55 for the $10 Puts (net price $7.45 if HIMX is below $10 on 1/15/2016)
    + $4 for the $12 Puts (net price of $8 if HIMX Is below $12 on 1/15/2016)
    + $6.60 for the $15 Puts (net price of $8.40 if HIMX is below $15 on 1/15/2016)

    Disclosure: I sold the Jan 2016 $12 Puts some time back getting nearly $5/share for them. I also sold some June 2015 $7's and $8 Puts a week ago Friday on Option Expiration Date when the MM's took HIMX below $7 (and then it closed at $7). I doubt I get any of these shares.....but getting the June 2015's would be great as it would come right before the dividend is paid.

    Note that if you want the shares Put to you, you should be selling the $15's. I liked the $12's as I was fine getting $5/share for nothing as I fully expect HIMX to be over $12 on 1/15/2016....but would buy the shares if Put to me.

    Finally, you can also buy/sell Calls but I don't like buying Call Options as the net price you would pay is higher than the share price today. And, as all options have intrinsic value and time value, the time value erodes with time. So, selling Puts means I gain as the time value erodes whereas option buyers lose time value with time.

    Thoughts or comments on this option strategy?

  • Reply to

    Possible Hololens connection...

    by adchop Jan 23, 2015 7:58 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 26, 2015 1:09 PM Flag

    sweetwummer,

    I have nothing against EMAN or even VUZI. I just don't like to invest in companies with revenue under $100 million per year....or even those with less than $250 million per year in revenue. EMAN is projected to have revenues under $30 million in 2015 and VUZI under $6 million.

    Both are probably very fine companies and doing very fine work and furthering technology. I see both are also up today so this rally is really sector wide and investors positioning themselves for the hoped for "next big thing".

    I was trying to keep this about HIMX and asking frankenberrylives about why he wrote "HIMX looks to me to be overvalued here". I think frankenberrylives does his research and has valid comments and truly did want his thoughts. I suspect he is probably not well informed on HIMX but was curious how he did valuations.

  • Reply to

    Possible Hololens connection...

    by adchop Jan 23, 2015 7:58 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 26, 2015 12:14 PM Flag

    Hey frankenberrylives,

    Look, I have no ill will towards you as you do your research. I only asked for the details behind your own comment:

    "HIMX looks to me to be overvalued here". Now, you say "that's a tall order". Well, which is it? I tried to help you by posting HIMX statements about LCoS and WLO doing very well and how HIMX is working with "world leading" customers and partners....who come to HIMXto fund focused R&D.

    I think you look at HIMX primarily as a competitor to EMAN and VUZI which I think you own. But, HIMX is much, much more than that as they have a great core business with multiple products in multiple sectors along with a wide variety of customers. And, within this core business, they are growing, they are profitable and they pay a dividend...all at a very reasonable P/E although lower PEG which I think is a key.

    The LCoS business is an upside for HIMX whereas displays are the full business of EMAN and VUZI. No doubt, LCoS has the potential to be a huge upside....but I and others are equally or more bullish on their WLO potential.

    Finally, another consideration for HIMX is their ability to combine several of these products including LCoS/WLO's with their touch and gesture controllers, timing controllers (which we know was key to Oculus lags which caused nausea), etc., etc. which it seems it is doing with their new term (to me at least) of HPU's or Holographic Processing Units.

  • Reply to

    Analyzing The Outlook Of Himax Technologies

    by sbacchus2003 Jan 22, 2015 6:51 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 23, 2015 7:03 PM Flag

    Hey Frankenberrylives,

    I would recommend reading the article posted by sbacchus in the lead post on this topic. It was written and posted online yesterday at Gurufocus.....and explains all the many things HIMX is involved in as LCoS is just a smaller revenue piece for now.

  • Reply to

    Possible Hololens connection...

    by adchop Jan 23, 2015 7:58 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 23, 2015 7:00 PM Flag

    Hey frankenberrylives,

    What do you see as the fully valued share price for HIMX? And, what would you base that on; revenue, P/E, PEG, future revenue/EPS? What value would you give their patents? (estimates of $1 billion revenue for 2015 with positive EPS of $0.49 which was increased by two analysts in the last 30 days).

    What do you see as fair value for MVIS (current estimates of $7.85 million total revenue for 2015 with loss of $0.28/share with loss increased by analysts since last reporting) and EMAN (estimates of $27.55 million revenue for 2015 with loss of $0.05/share with loss increased by analysts since last reporting).

    And, what do you make of these comments by HIMX management below from HIMX's recent PR about their 4Q 2014 pre-announcement and their 3Q 2014 Conference Call......and then ask yourself what this means about HIMX future. After all, if world leading companies are working directly with HIMX (and funding the work) and HIMX has added employees for increasing opportunities....leading HIMX to an ever increasing number of key patents. Recall that HIMX already has manufacturing space and equipment for their LCoS.

    "On a side note, on top of solid core businesses, Himax is experiencing strong momentum in our LCOS and WLO operations. As noted previously, Himax continues to work closely with world leading customers and/or partners in the LCOS and WLO sectors."

    "The increase was related to higher salary expenses caused by additional engineering headcount and annual salary raises and more new project tape-outs. This is in line with the repeated indications we made earlier that we intended to expand our R&D team to capture the increasing business opportunities."

    Disclosure: I think HIMX's best days are in later 2015, 2016 & 2017.....but think now is the time to start getting positioned in HIMX.

  • Reply to

    Possible Hololens connection...

    by adchop Jan 23, 2015 7:58 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 23, 2015 6:48 PM Flag

    Look at MVIS expected revenue for 2015. And, I doubt MVIS has much for manufacturing space/equipment and their products don't seem like something that can be fabbed out without several significant issues.

  • Reply to

    Papa of Four Seeking Alpha Article on HIMX

    by haschultz1 Jan 18, 2015 8:30 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 23, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    I would recommend everyone going back to this article and reading some of the comments as there is a MeisterG who has posted some insightful comments there.

    Also, the author Papa of Four posted that he is working on an update although a revisit of this article from this past weekend is worth it for the new comments.

  • Reply to

    Analyzing The Outlook Of Himax Technologies

    by sbacchus2003 Jan 22, 2015 6:51 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 23, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    Thanks as always sbacchus. That was an honest write-up and current as it was dated Jan 22, 2015. I'll have to spend more time at this site as it gives different news sources than just Yahoo and Seeking Alpha.

    I would recommend that all read the original post under this topic for the article.

    As for HIMX and Microsoft and other growth initiatives, focus on these two items from HIMX's recent PR about their 4Q 2014 pre-announcement and their 3Q 2014 Conference Call...........and then ask yourself what this means about HIMX future. After all, if world leading companies are working directly with HIMX, HIMX has added employees for increasing opportunities and then HIMX has an ever increasing number of key patents, how can the future be $5 as Jay Srivatsa of Chardan claims?

    "On a side note, on top of solid core businesses, Himax is experiencing strong momentum in our LCOS and WLO operations. As noted previously, Himax continues to work closely with world leading customers and/or partners in the LCOS and WLO sectors."

    "The increase was related to higher salary expenses caused by additional engineering headcount and annual salary raises and more new project tape-outs. This is in line with the repeated indications we made earlier that we intended to expand our R&D team to capture the increasing business opportunities."

  • Reply to

    Analyzing The Outlook Of Himax Technologies

    by sbacchus2003 Jan 22, 2015 6:51 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 22, 2015 8:08 PM Flag

    Great write-up sbacchus,

    Where did you get this....or who authored it? Also, what is the date this was written?

    I am guessing Chardan's Jay Srivatsa............NOT!!!!!!

  • SWKS has a lot of customers and sectors in common with HIMX although SWKS is in the RF sector.

    I have been playing SWKS, RFMD/TQNT who is now QRVO and even NXPI as a play on smartphones and even Apple iPhone sales. So, the SWKS beat and raised guidance has to bode well for HIMX in the smartphone sector.

  • Reply to

    the MM's.

    by jarhead19881992 Jan 22, 2015 12:54 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 22, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    Hey jarhead,

    Yeah, it was an interesting fight on Level II. There are certainly committed buyers now which we haven't seen in some time.

    The selling came in bunches and seemed to be blocking at key prices. I have to think these are not sellers as sellers would let the buying come to them as they just don't throw larger blocks out to suppress the stock price as that is not in their best interest. This has to be the MM's or others who are short or have option positions where they want HIMX to close lower tomorrow on that Friday's option expiration date.

    The real key is how those 'managing' the share price this week unravel and positions from this week or their hedges (options).

    I have to think most shorts will want to cover before earnings as there just can't be that much bad news even possible for HIMX considering expectations. The real key will be any financial guidance and especially about any products/customers they are able to talk about. What HIMX management has to do is balance the two. As they can't talk about customers (NDA's), they need to talk broadly about 2H 2015 and even 2016 revenue 'potentials' and if they guide revenues up say 15%, the bashers just won't be able to get the share price lower as valuations here are still pretty sold.

  • Reply to

    the MM's.

    by jarhead19881992 Jan 22, 2015 12:54 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 22, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    Now the MM's are putting up a 32,000 share block at $7.99 so they are worried about the $8 calls for tomorrow. All of the other blocks have failed today but this could hold.......and they could mount another attack tomorrow as the markets consolidate today's and this week's gains in the overall market and certainly in HIMX.

    We will not see the 1H Jan 2015 short activity until next week but I am very interested in seeing that action.

    I just checked back on the Level II quotes and half the block has been eaten up. Great to finally have some committed buyers in HIMX.

    Things are moving fast as they just now ate up all those shares at $7.99 and a quick block at $8.00 and it is now running to $8.02.

    While this is great, it really just gets HIMX back to where it was 2 weeks ago. Glad that I took the weakness last week and last Friday to sell those June 2015 Puts as that will get me some good cash.

  • Reply to

    the MM's.

    by jarhead19881992 Jan 22, 2015 12:54 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jan 22, 2015 3:00 PM Flag

    Hey jarhead,

    MM's put up all sorts of blocks today at various price points. Just now, they put up nearly 75,000 shares at $7.90 after failing to hold it below $7.87, $7.88 and $7.89.

    And, HIMX just swallowed up those shares and is now at $7.92.

    But, I suspect the MM's will remount their efforts. But, it is good to see come committed buyers out there.......and at some point, those buyers will have to be the MM's who have been selling short to protect their options.

    Some more good comment on the Papa or Four HIMX article from this weekend at Seeking Alpha. Seems one commenter knows that HIMX has a touch controller (TDDI) chip in the Lumia 535 phone which could end up doing very well in India and eventually the USA as Microsoft gives its Windows 10 OS Software to owners of Windows 7 and 8. This could drive corporations to adopt Microsoft OS phones. Microsoft is making a lot of headline news and good products under their new CEO.

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