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GT Advanced Technologies Inc. Message Board

haschultz1 136 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Apr 27, 2001
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  • haschultz1 haschultz1 12 hours ago Flag

    Hey normagain2000,

    Yes, any institution or fund which is public has to disclose their holdings. But, by raising the price they are short, the shorts do not look nearly as bad as if their average selling price was lower (looks better to be short at an average of $9 then at average of $8/share).

    Of course, there is the factor of disclosing the number of shares shorted and we will know that around the 10th of October. But view shortstockvolumedotcom and see the trends.

    Just watch the market trading in HIMX tomorrow and then lets discuss how much of what we saw the past few days was associated with quarterly window dressing. I bet volumes are down significantly although I wouldn't venture to guess the price action.

    I do expect a bear raid due to the quick rise in stock. But, are there still buyers who would buy the dip???

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 12 hours ago Flag

    Hey tom.berry169,

    Refer to my last post which explains that I can get a profit of (in my case since I did this some months back), over $4.50/share by investing nothing. Again, I can pocket the premium if HIMX is above $12/share in Jan 2016 without investing a penny in the share.

    By the way, I also bought quite a few shares last June/July so it is not as if I don't own HIMX shares.

    But, let's use today's closing prices of $10.15 for the shares and $3.60 bid on the Jan 2012 $12 puts:

    + If HIMX trades flat, the shares are put to me at a net price of $12 - 3.60 = $8.40. That is still a profit of $1.75/share and I basically did not invest any of my money so my Return on Investment (ROI) is near infinite. And, due to these favorable terms (good profit with no increase in share price and shares prices below net put pricing, I can afford to do this on more contracts than I might otherwise do if this cost me money and had more risk.

    + At $3.60 for the $12 puts, the shares would have to go above $13.75 to beat the $3.60 Put Option premium I would make if HIMX is above $12 (Puts expire worthless). This $13.75 is a 35.5% increase in current share price....and buying shares ties up capital which sell Puts does not

    + If HIMX were to fall to $8.40/share, I would break even on the Puts......but the shares would have lost $1.75 so I have good downside protection.

    + Taken together, HIMX would have to close up over $13.75 (35.5% gain) for buying the shares to give more profit.........but the ROI is still nowhere near as good as buying shares takes capital and selling Puts puts money in your account.

    + Finally, to compensate for potential lower profits if HIMX is above $13.75, I again look at my better ROI (no capital) and the fact that lower risk allows me to sell more Puts than I could buy shares.

    Again, I am happy with making even half the premium on selling the puts as I put up no capital..........but I would not be nearly as happy with no gains if using capital

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 13 hours ago Flag

    Hey normagain2000,

    You could be right in that this has something to do with end of 3Q 2014 window dressing..............but perhaps more on the side of the shorts who don't want their paper losses to show as much.

    Generally, funds liquidating positions don't do that at the end of the month...............and generally like their winners to run so they can show higher paper profits.

    So, I wonder if this is a huge short player.............trying to make their short not look as bad by selling more here (which raises their average selling price).

    Just to be sure, I have no idea what is going on.............but these are not the actions of a long position selling shares as they normally love to sell into a rising market and wouldn't be throwing larger blocks at the bid to take the price down.

    Something is going on...............and it really as been like this for months.

  • And took HIMX down a bit. But, are these the actions of a seller who wants to get the best price possible for their shares?

    No, this is someone trying to hold the share price down. And, why is that?

    A seller would love today's market on HIMX as it was going up nicely and you could slowly sell your shares at the ask and not upset the orderly move of HIMX.

    No, someone threw shares at the bid to knock the share price down...........and perhaps even hit a few sell stops on the way down.

    I would sure love to know the motivations of those trading HIMX over the past few months as this stock really does seem 'managed' by someone(s).

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 13 hours ago Flag

    Hey tom.berry169,

    First, I sold the Puts which is a bullish move as I am giving someone the right to sell me shares of HIMX at $12 on the 3rd Friday of Jan 2016..............mostly because I think the shares will be higher and no one will sell a $16 share for $12.

    Now, what about if it is $16? First off, I could have sold $15 puts and thus made more money..........per contract. But, the net purchase price is not as low on the $15's as they are on the $12's (net being the strike price less the premium). You can sell the Jan 2016 $12's for $3.60 today which is a net price of $8.40/share which is much less than the current price.

    Next, keep in mind that I get money as soon as I sell these puts. So, I am really not investing any money in these so my return on investment is nearly infinite (brokerage does ensure you keep funds to cover your Puts...........but these can be invested.........including the funds you get for selling the puts).

    Now, if this is $16 in Jan 2016 and I sold the $12's, I only get $3.60/share whereas you buying the shares today at $10.30 would get you $5.70/share. But, you invested $10.30/share to make your $5.70 whereas someone gave me $3.60/share and it cost me nothing.

    Furthermore, since the net price is $8.60 vs. today's $10.30, I have less risk in case HIMX is only $10.30 in Jan 2016 (shares are put to me at net of $8.60 so my shares are $1.70 profitable whereas bought shares are at $0 profit.

    Finally, since the risk is less, I can afford to sell more contracts of HIMX. Say I would only buy 1,000 shares of HIMX at $10.30......perhaps I am willing to sell 20 Put contracts (2,000 shares) and control twice the shares since I have less risk.......and I don't put out any money......I get money as soon as the Puts are sold.

    Again, it is worth everyone's time to learn options as they can help you reduce risk and make profits.........and are another data point about what others think of the future. You don't need to trade them.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 14 hours ago Flag

    Hey romypostit,

    To learn more about HIMX, go to their website (link is on the Profile tab on the left hand column of the Yahoo HIMX page) and look at their Investor's presentation. This is what was shown to those attending their investor's conferences in September (New York and Taiwan).

    As with most companies you may hold shares in............always go the company site and look for Investor Relations as there is a wealth of information there (annual and quarterly reports, presentations, etc.).

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 17 hours ago Flag

    Jan 2016 $12 Puts are bidding $3.60 which is a net price of $8.40/share. Last week, these were bidding $4.10 and were higher than that when I sold them several months back.

    I think selling these Jan 2016 Puts are a great deal as:

    - it is lower risk than buying at $10.24 today as your net price would be $8.40 in Jan 2016

    - you get $3.60 in your account as soon as you sell them meaning you really are not putting out any money (although they put restrictions on your account...........and you do show a loss as they value these at the ask which is still above $4).

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 17 hours ago Flag

    Hey sbacchus2003,

    I believe that this is really key..............the focus on the business sector for glasses as there is a real payout on these in productivity improvements.................and you get away from the Glasshole types of comments with private sector use.

    The market is huge for builders, machinists and such who need frequent referrals to drawings. Then, there is the police market which is similarly large and who use dash cams now..........but glasses can record sound and where the officer looks and the connected nature means only looking at the license number and tag to 'run the background checks'.

    Then, there is the medical and other markets.

    Finally, businesses have the funds to buy these glasses and fund the specialized apps they might want..............as there is a very real and tangible payback in higher productivity and fewer errors.

    I really think companies should focus on the business market and then let the consumer come along when they want.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 17 hours ago Flag

    Hey ntcse,

    Good comment and I was only noting what I saw changed on the Analyst expectation page.

    You are right as in the past, the analysts have raised estimates higher than HIMX guidance and then ran the share price down short term when HIMX only met management guidance but not the higher analysts estimates. So, I share your sentiment that sometimes a lower bar is nicer as you can then comfortably beat expectations........and see a positive sentiment rather than the company miss higher expectations.

    Again, my intention was just to note that analysts were raising estimates and these are probably behind all the upgrades we have gotten. Note that HIMX gave two September presentations; one in New York and one in Taiwan...........and they had numerous one on one meetings. So, the analysts have now had time to update their models and get their favored clients into the stock so they can now upgrade their Price Targets.

    In the long run, HIMX share price will be what they deserve based upon current and projected revenue, earnings and then various ratios with PEG being my first screening indicator.

  • Reply to

    500,000 Trade After Hours at $9.81

    by haschultz1 Sep 29, 2014 4:18 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Sep 29, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    Hey xrayflourishes,

    What you write is possible.............but so is an arranged sale.

    You theory about "More likely something that was during regular hours that cleared 2 minutes after close. And a mix of buy and sells, otherwise it would have moved the price up or down huge after hours" would be more plausible if the volume was not such a round number of 500,000.

    I am going with arranged sale as those do not move the market...........except when being accumulated.

  • Now trading at $9.84 after hours.

    This would seem to be an arranged trade..............possibly where some MM was accumulating for an institutional client. But, this is meaningful as there are many reasons to sell............but generally only one reason to buy.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Sep 29, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    Hey archtrader2004,

    If you look at Level II trades, there is still several that are throwing larger blocks at the bid to take it down............and then large volumes on the ask to hopefully hold it down.

    These are not the action of a seller wanting to sell as they would let the price come to them............and certainly not advertise a large block of shares at the ask.

    I fear we still have someone(s) who are playing with the stock..............although it seems they are losing now.

    Also, go to shortstockvolume and see the percentage of shares traded each day which are short sales (I don't know how they come up with this and suspect they are actually shares sold at the bid). But, the trend is helpful and it seems that there is still a strong shorting tendency on HIMX. Note that the short volume increased over 750,000 shares in the first half of September.

    These shorts are going to have to report at quarter's end and I suspect some covering was going on the past week and that is why we have the strength in HIMX to go along with the upgrades.

    My humble opinion only.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Sep 29, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    Hey sbacchus2003,

    MU is one of my holdings although they have been range bound for some time. Still, they reported earnings after last Thursdays close and showed good revenue and EPS Growth...............and more importantly, guided up revenue and earnings for their upcoming quarter.

    Now, why is this important? It is a data point showing that technology is still strong and still growing............and how many other sectors can claim that................while also having lower P/E's (and much lower PEG's). MU P/E was around 10 when they reported last Thursday.

    Now, within the technology sector, look at where the growth has been.............and one place is in smartphones. The move to LTE in China has really helped growth and I have been playing this via the radio frequency suppliers as 2G had

  • Reply to

    My thinking on GTAT now posted

    by yepyepperyea Sep 27, 2014 5:51 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Sep 29, 2014 12:48 PM Flag

    Thanks for a well organized summary. My comments are:

    + I read that sapphire diamond saw cutting & polishing yields were very low & why iPhone 6 was not released with sapphire. This is not a GTAT problem

    + GTAT should get paid for all sapphire being delivered to Apple's sapphire cutting/polishing contractors...so the key is continuing to make sapphire for revenues........from Apple or anyone they want if Apple doesn't buy it

    + Apple has filed many sapphire property alteration patents (treated, laminates, etc.). So, the properties will be altered to something superior to ion infused glass. Note that Corning did not shoot up after 9/9 so people know

    + What was the glass screen in the video which was bent (but did not break) and held up well after unsuccessful scratch attempts. Was this, as advertised, a sapphire screen (if not, what was it)?

    + I think the key is sapphire laminates. So, Hyperion is key and a new revenue driver for GTAT (& Apple promised USA jobs)

    Bottom lines:

    + GTAT is not just an Apple Sapphire screen company (but does supply sapphire camera lens and fingerprint ID scanning button). They have PV, Merlin, SiC, HiCZ, Hyperion, etc., etc.

    + Once the Hyperion process is automated and ready, GTAT can increase their revenues by offering this service and Apple can use sapphire laminates on their product lines............including re-energizing the iPhone 6 sales and perhaps even as a replacement for broken screens

    + More phones are coming with sapphire so the problems will be solved........and the markets expanded....and perhaps outside of just smartphone screens to industrial uses like ball bearings, thrust chambers, etc..

    All that GTAT needs is time for all to be resolved...........which is fine for patient investors but not so much with traders and option players

    Finally, a mid-term release of sapphire could be a great way to re-energize the iPhone 6 sales........and possibly answer the problem of cracking screens as being reported

  • Reply to

    Merrill Opinion On Himx

    by johnleeshoe Sep 29, 2014 11:18 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Sep 29, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    Thanks johnleeshoe,

    The details really help..............and it is interesting that this is still about LCoS sales.

    So, any benefit and inroads in Wafer Level Optics and Camera Arrays are still upsides.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Sep 27, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    Hey glhsken,

    Sorry, I meant 2015 and not 2016.

    If you look in the latest estimate (under EPS Trends section) and compare them to the 7 days ago estimates, you will see where the average price did change.

    It also seems that the 2015 revenue is higher than I remember it from a week or so ago........but I did not save this so can't be sure...........but it makes sense that if 2015 EPS estimates were raised that revenue was also raised.

    Finally, if you look at and compare revenue growth with EPS growth, they are about the same meaning that there is no margin expansion...........and I think HIMX growth areas have higher margin potential. So, there could be some upside surprises.........or the analysts are expecting these margin expansion products just offset margin losses on other product lines.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Sep 27, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    Hey sbacchus2003,

    Seems Yahoo deleted (or did not post) my initial reply to you.

    What I wrote was that:

    + the first employee is the hardest as it is blazing a new trail (and are they true employees with tax withholding or more like sub-contractors)

    + Once you have done the first, the second, third and fourth employees are simple. So, keep growing.

    + How to keep growing.......franchise and widen your geographical markets which you should be able to do now that you can focus on growing the business rather than running/conducting business. You could include a basic health check each month (weight, pulse, blood pressure, etc.) and then show trends which could be of interest to your clients and let them know you are interested in the healthy of their pets.

    + Widen your offerings to perhaps food, nutrition, grooming, extended boarding, training, high intensity/weight loss activity, etc., etc. Some of this can be done with strategic alliances (use existing businesses) but by aggregating them makes life simpler for your customers. This is referred to as increasing your revenue per existing customer and you can also make them more dependent upon your services

    + Grow the business by using social media.........for example send an instgram photo to your customers once in a while as that will make them feel good. Offer weekend gatherings/events for your customers at existing locations as some guys do own pets just to meet chicks.

    The alternate to this is to improve your investing skills and increase your stock returns.

    Congratulations on a meaningful milestone accomplishment.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Sep 27, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    Hey ntsce,

    See the Yahoo Analyst Estimates as they have been increased. Of special note should be the revenue growth for 2016. It would be nice to see how much LCoS is behind the increased revenue.......as well as the increase projected for WLO's, CMOS and their non-driver business.

    I suspect the analysts are still being a bit conservative on both LCoS and WLO's and so revenue could be even better than predicted.......and that means EPS, margins and share price could also move higher than projected.

    As a note, I am not predicting anything higher than $14 a year from now..........but that is a nice move up and doesn't include the $0.30/share dividend we should get in July 2015.

    See the Jan 2015 $12 Puts. You can get $4.10/share for selling them (bullish trade). The risk is much lower as your net price, if the shares are put to you, is $7.90/share vs. $9.27 buying shares.

  • Reply to

    Just bought 10000 shares at 11.77

    by socialwelfareadvisor Sep 19, 2014 1:25 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Sep 26, 2014 8:26 PM Flag

    MU revenue/earnings and especially revenue guidance last night helped the NASDAQ today. They showed Wall Street that Tech is still making money at lower P/E...........and are growing. Really, tech has some solid PEG's which is one of my primary sorts.

    Keep in mind that RFMD (pluys MU, SWKS & NXPI which I also own)......beat on their 2Q 2014 revenue/earnings and raised guidance..............and who raises it so high they can't beat it again???

    As such, I expect RFMD to keep moving up..........and perhaps be $12.50+ by year end. You may need be chasing higher yields but I will take 5% from here over the last 3 months of the year.

  • Reply to

    Today.............

    by svs8200 Sep 26, 2014 9:07 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Sep 26, 2014 8:19 PM Flag

    I have $0.76 for the week not that it really matters. What is significant is that this is ~1.5% increase in share price while the Nasdaq was down ~66 points or 1.5%...........for this past week.

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