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GT Advanced Technologies, AŞ Message Board

haschultz1 145 posts  |  Last Activity: 42 minutes ago Member since: Apr 27, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Big Short Painting the Tape.......

    by haschultz1 1 hour 7 minutes ago
    haschultz1 haschultz1 42 minutes ago Flag

    The easy/best solution to keep your shares from being borrowed to short is to set a sell limit order........say at $30 so it ties up your shares.

    From an article on the Internet:

    "There are two things you can do, the first is to certificate them but this is not obviously to everyone’s advantage but the alternative solution is simple. All you do is to phone your broker and put an order in saying that you wish to place your shares for sale at, for arguments sake, double today’s price. As they are 'on order' they cannot be lent out by your broker and in turn you are reducing the amount of 'free shares' out there that can be used for shorting purposes. And don't forget to move your limit order up when the price starts to recover, then, that way your shares can't be shorted - not much but helps :D.

    Although an individual personal investor will not normally have enough shares to halt a concerted shorting attack, if a large number of holders did this it would reduce the overall amount of shares that they could get their hands on.

    In my opinion well worth doing if not only for the knowledge that your own shares cannot and will not be used in a short attack against the very share that you own."

  • On the last day of the 2nd Quarter.

    I don't hold much HIMX but I may do some buying today as this is very obvious.......that the big short is taking this down to make their end of quarter report look good.

  • Reply to

    Just waiting.

    by jarhead19881992 Jun 22, 2016 9:03 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 23, 2016 7:20 PM Flag

    I have no timetable for HIMX to move toward/above $12. It will be based upon news, activities and accomplishments and not time.

  • Reply to

    iwear to soon be available at retailers?

    by squirrl22 Jun 22, 2016 3:52 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 23, 2016 5:32 PM Flag

    Hey squirrl22,

    I have to somewhat agree on the iWear. I see these are really just an effort to turn inventory into cash........which is a good thing and what they should be doing. But, if VUZI was really serious about iWear, they would be looking to increase the pixel density and go wireless.........which was discussed without any commitment at the recent CC.

    But, as a VUZI investor (sold Puts), I wish VUZI luck in converting their iWear inventory into sales and hopefully profits (or at least something better than an inventory write-off). But, after this effort, I would prefer they focus on the M300's and future generations of Smartglasses.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 23, 2016 5:27 PM Flag

    Hey frankenberry,

    Stop losses could not get hit and the lower price stick if there was buying interest. I suggest you look at a 1 year chart and you might see why some wanted to see VUZI sold off.

    And, I am not being negative here........just looking at real data and considering various factors.

    As for a secondary offering, a loan would be better for current shareholders and I would prefer VUZI to borrow money rather than sell more shares; especially if selling more shares were going to negatively affect share price. Selling shares at this price and after saying they did not need capital would really hurt Mgmt credibility.

  • Reply to

    iwear to soon be available at retailers?

    by squirrl22 Jun 22, 2016 3:52 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 23, 2016 5:18 PM Flag

    Gosh, I just don't get why frankenberry and others here are so defensive.......rather than discuss and flesh things out.

    I am not trying to bash VUZI as I have a stake here. But, VUZI is a big gamble from many aspects......so learning more is key to making more profits or minimizing losses. I think VUZI has some positives which is why I am invested here.......and trying to learn more than what is said in PR's and CC's.

    So, quit trying to read evil into every post.....and my question is more around timing...........not if they are meeting what they say. Specifically, why is there this seemingly 5 week period between the first 50 devices and the next 200.........and then what does this means for future production runs/timing?

  • Reply to

    Just waiting.

    by jarhead19881992 Jun 22, 2016 9:03 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 23, 2016 4:28 PM Flag

    Hey normagain,

    I agree about the 2015 dividend being a large factor in May/June of 2015 as the shorts did not want to pay a 4.5% dividend and covered before the earlier than usual divided date. As such, I only wanted to point this out when comparing the chart today with that point in time as the dividend yield is much lower this year, being paid nearly a month later with the much lower yield directly related to the reduced DRIP buying which will also be nearly a month later.

    As a note, I had sold June 2015 $7 and $8 Puts in Jan 2015 thinking that I might make some money and get shares Put to me just ahead of the dividend being paid (when I was expecting something like $0.30 and my net price was going to be around $6 based upon the Put option price). Well, I ended up not getting any shares.......although I did well as I got to keep the Put option selling premium.

    I also don't doubt that Wu is frustrated by delays and NDA's and the games played with HIMX share prices. But, there really is not much he can do other than put out news when and where he can.

    The next few quarters will have easy year over year comparisons and HIMX is doing well in the non-LCOS/CMOS arrays.

  • Reply to

    Any idea what SEC release of June 20 means.

    by revox_2001 Jun 22, 2016 9:48 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 23, 2016 3:29 PM Flag

    No problem and I know what you mean about message board discussions and being attacked for just wanting an honest discussion/debate.

    MXL has a great future and much of that is due to their management.........who made a great purchase with Entropic and hopefully the asset purchases from Microsemi and Broadcom work out as well or better. And, from what they discussed at the May Conference Call, I suspect these will work out very well.

  • Reply to

    iwear to soon be available at retailers?

    by squirrl22 Jun 22, 2016 3:52 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 23, 2016 1:50 PM Flag

    Feeling superior (again) today frankenberry?

    I have acknowledged that I am bullish on VUZI (sold Puts and posted that here as a lower risk way to invest here)........and have acknowledged that I don't know the answers. I am just trying to start a discussion on manufacturing and run rates.........which is why I asked questions and not made declarative statements.

    So, what do you think the run rate will be and what will be the ramp up. Make them simple for people like me.

  • Reply to

    iwear to soon be available at retailers?

    by squirrl22 Jun 22, 2016 3:52 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 23, 2016 1:22 PM Flag

    Hey frankenberry,

    As usual, you missed the point of my post. 60,000 units is not my estimate. It is only 200 units per day times 300 manufacturing days per year......and I was questioning why it was going to take another 5 weeks to turn out 200 more units when that should be a day's worth of work (or perhaps much less than a day's work).

    My comment was that VUZI/Jabil should have the manufacturing process mostly optimized......which even your post or Traver's comments confirm.

    So, why the 5 weeks for another 200 units? How hand/manual labor intensive are these units?

    Just what is the initial target daily rate supposed to be?

    Finally, who said I was complaining? I am simply trying to understand what the future holds here and I want to better understand VUZI and their plans/processes. Why aren't you trying to do the same.......rather than seemingly disrupting and not futhering the discussion?

  • Reply to

    I conferm Ye11huda post

    by evarod44 Jun 23, 2016 12:23 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 23, 2016 1:00 PM Flag

    Hey evarrod44,

    Thanks for your insight.........but MSFT is not the sort of company who buys hardware manufacturers and especially would not buy a chip company. Now, MSFT collaborating with HIMX for specialized chips (LCOS displays, sensor arrays, graphics processing chips, timing controllers, etc.) is something else and I don't doubt that this is what occurred as the display is a very large part of perfecting Augmented and Mixed Reality devices like Hololens.

    But, MSFT would certainly not buy HIMX just for access to LCOS and other chips when HIMX is willing to sell these to MSFT.......and also sells so many other chips and to so many other companies.

    In fairness, what you write is fully consistent with MSFT working with HIMX on Hololens development........and you never said MSFT was interested in buying HIMX. I just wanted to post this for the others who might misinterpret your post as a buying interest.

  • Reply to

    iwear to soon be available at retailers?

    by squirrl22 Jun 22, 2016 3:52 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 23, 2016 12:52 PM Flag

    In all seriousness as a VUZI bull:

    Iif there are 50 M300 units ready now, why will it take 5 weeks for the next 200 units? 200 sounds like it would be a one day run through the manufacturing process.

    So, what do you think the day run rate is.......and just how automated is this entire process? Is there still a lot of hand work which needs to be done on each unit? But, even at 1 hour of hands on per unit, 25 people should be able to do 200 units per day.

    What am I missing here that once the manufacturing process is set up and operating, shouldn't VUZI's contractor (Jabil?) be able to turn out 200 per day? It would be a big mistake to leave customers waiting longer than needed........and giving whomever is or will be their competition time to compete.

    Note that 200 units per day is still only a 60,000 unit per year rate given holidays and tooling changes. What should we think VUZI and Jabil are targeting at some point once the manufacturing process is optimized?

    My only thought is that the manufacturing process might still be very hands on dependent while VUZI and Jabil are still working to automate the process??????

  • Reply to

    Just waiting.

    by jarhead19881992 Jun 22, 2016 9:03 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 23, 2016 10:26 AM Flag

    Hey jarhead, glhsken, normagain, fsumatty, etc.

    I would not expect much from HIMX until the shorts cover........which I think is going on now and why HIMX share price has been down as the shorts try to delay any strong retail buying making them think they can get lower prices if they wait.

    There has been some interesting after hours trades and volume again making me think the shorts are covering now. We should see the first half of July short volume in a few days and I am expecting that to drop a bit from the very high 14 million share level.

    Having written that, I do wonder where the analyst comments are from the many conferences HIMX attended in the past month. Perhaps professional curtesy giving the shorts time to cover before saying anything.

    From a fundamental standpoint, HIMX has some very easy comparisons coming up the next few quarters. But, the $0.13/share dividend, which should have been expected by those who did their research (including the large shorts), will not scare the shorts as the $0.30 dividend in 2015 did (especially relative to the share price). Remember, it is not just the share yield.......but also the after dividend share repurchases which will be down this year.

    From a technical standpoint, the 50 DMA is decreasing although the 200 DMA is still rising nicely. The comparison of the weekly chart to mid-2015 may not be valid as 2015 had an early announcement of a very strong dividend yield (nearly 4.5% based upon early May 2015 share price) and we saw strong short covering and buying ahead of the dividend.......and then stronger post dividend share re-investment.

    I say, follow the shorts......and our first data point will be next week with the early June 2015 data.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 22, 2016 5:49 PM Flag

    See below the historical short volume and share price on MXL which shows that the shorts have been losers.......and that they have started covering as of mid-May 2016.

    Note that the NASDAQ site where I used to get this historical bi-monthly data no longer carries NYSE stocks.

    Date. Short Volume Share Price
    5/31/2016 3,395,900. $20.72
    5/13/2016 3,463,100 $18.41
    4/29/2016 3,400,000 $16.75
    3/15/2016 3,882,676 $17.14
    2/29/2016 3,516,897 $16.09
    2/12/2016 3,470,056 $13.86
    1/29/2016 3,160,904 $15.38
    1/15/2016 2,908,287 $14.39
    12/31/2015 2,448,201 $14.73

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 22, 2016 5:42 PM Flag

    Short players started covering their short position in the last half of May 2016 as shown below. I think what we are seeing now is the shorts moving the share price down as they continue to try and close their short positions. The declining share price of the past two weeks is keeping the buyers on the sidelines as they see the price get cheaper every day so there is no reason to buy today.........as they keep seeing the share price get cheaper.

    That also explains the the very low daily share volume..

    MXL needs a catalyst for the buyers to finally step in and buy. There are several coming up which should worry the shorts and eventually move share prices higher and thus bringing in the buyers who are currently watching and waiting to buy.

    A few of these catalysts could be:

    + MXL pre-announcing their 2Q revenue and margins in the first half of July as they have been doing the past few quarters (great for shareholders although I think Mgmt would prefer to stop doing this)

    + MXL filing their SEC Form 8 for the close of their $80 million asset purchase from Broadcom which we should see in the first half of July.

    + MXL could come out and provide guidance for the new asset purchases as a separate PR prior to the Conference Call in early August 2016

    + MXL reporting official 2Q 2016 revenue and EPS on the first half of August 2016 where they will discuss the asset purchases and update their revenue guidance (which will include these new assets) for 3Q 2016. 2Q 2016 revenue was guided by Mgmt at $102 million which will compare to $70.8 million from 2Q 2015 and thus a 40+% increase. EPS was guided at $0.42/share which will be a double over the $0.21 from 2Q 2015. This will give MXL a trailing EPS of ~$1.60. Slap a conservative 15 P/E on this and you get a $24 share price. Make it a 20 P/E due to solid growth and you get a $32 share price.

    Yeah, the shorts have a lot to worry about and buyers know most of this...but are waiting to get the best Buy-in price.

  • Reply to

    Any idea what SEC release of June 20 means.

    by revox_2001 Jun 22, 2016 9:48 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 22, 2016 5:28 PM Flag

    June 20th SEC Filing was the close of asset purchases from Microsemi which had been previously announced. I am expecting another one for the asset purchases from Broadcom which MXL wants to close prior to the end of June 2016 if possible (so expect an SEC notice by 7/15/2016).

    If you look at the Analyst Estimates, there is no revenue from these asset purchases currently in the 2017 estimates. MXL Mgmt discussed providing insight and estimates for these at their 2Q 2016 Conference Call........after the asset sales are finalized.

    This is all good news as MXL works its way from sales of $200 million/year to over $1 billion/year over a perhaps a 5 year time frame......on organic and purchased assets. They are progressing well as they are now over a $400 million/year company just from the Entropic purchase. I expect the $21 million Microsemi asset purchase and $80 million Broadcom purchase to add $50+ million per year and MXL to end 2017 as a $500+ million/year company.

  • Reply to

    Why HIMX not doing so HOT

    by ye11huda Jun 21, 2016 1:04 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 21, 2016 5:20 PM Flag

    Hey ye11huda,

    Thanks for the insight. I think what you write ocrrelates well with Google making their initial investment in Himax Displays and then not following through with the option for an additional stake later (as Google was not ready and did not want to finance expansion which might benefit some other company).

    I also think this is why Wu now charges most companies for engineering time so all companies wanting engineering or anything else from HIMX is going to have to pay HIMX for their time/effort.

    Lastlty, Google really did not manage Glass well as they actually proved out that the real market was with enterprise or corporate worlds where cost and style are not the deciding factor (economic payback and profit is)......and after proving this, they quit supporting Glass when they should have been focusing on the enterprise markets as they did prove out some great uses.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 21, 2016 3:13 PM Flag

    I agree. I think Intel prefers VUZI be a partner, favored vendor, etc. but really has no plans to buy them. If Intel wanted to buy them, that time has mostly passed by.

    Why would Intel want to own VUZI? What is in it for Intel that they don't get now as a mostly outside party? Does Intel need any more management headaches.......when things as they are now seem just fine to them?

  • Reply to

    AH

    by normagain2000 Jun 15, 2016 6:11 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 16, 2016 1:47 AM Flag

    Interesting that just two minutes after the close, there were around 420,000 shares traded at $9.6651 which was more than 9 cents above the closing price for HIMX.

    I suspect these are from an arranged trade where the MM's accumulated shares for a customer as who else would have paid this much over the two minute prior closing price for HIMX.......and this large of an order could not have been a simple stupid market order that the MM's took advantage of.

    Below is from the NASDAQ website:

    After Hours Price After Hours Share Volume
    16:07 $ 9.57 Low 635
    16:05 $ 9.60 200
    16:02 $ 9.6651 High 411,129
    16:02 $ 9.6651 High 4,577
    16:02 $ 9.6651 High 4,052
    16:00 $ 9.57 100

  • Reply to

    no activity here ?

    by pontiacchieftain Jun 8, 2016 10:23 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Jun 9, 2016 9:57 AM Flag

    Nothing much to discuss here although:

    + MXL has put out some nicer PR's associated with new products and sales
    + Revenue & EPS estimates have risen since last Conference Call........which clearly said the two new asset purchases ($20 million from MCHP and $81 million from Broadcom) will be discussed and business impacts discussed more at their August CC
    + MXL is consolidating their recent gains and is holding over $20 which is good from the $17 level of just a few months ago
    + I still think MXL could finish this year around $25

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