Of course the traders will give us good support in the $14's which is good. One day they will sell in the mid $15's and it will not correct..........and they they will move on. But, until then, I have to agree that HIMX is a good traders stock..........but as an investor, I will just hold my shares for the inevitable ride to $20 and then $25.
Yes, still here but had a busy week of golf and spring training baseball with buddies in Phoenix in what has become a tradition now after 5 years. Great golf but the Dodgers did not look exceptional (scored 2 in the first and then put up goose eggs after that to lose). Played 7 rounds of golf and attended 6 spring training games.
Good to see HIMX pick up some higher price targets (Credit Suisse at $19 & Northland at $20 were they?). I still see HIMX as a second half 2014 story as they can't release news on their customer's products. But, news is coming and HIMX should do well once the news does start coming.
I am also long on GTAT..........who is getting run up prior to producing synthetic sapphire for their customer Apple whereas HIMX is not being run up before producing product for their customers Google, Microsoft, Sony, Oculus, etc..........or getting any value for the upcoming release of LCOS camera arrays. So, GTAT is getting their due before they perform and HIMX is not getting run up until the products are released which is near polar opposites.
I see GTAT and HIMX as somewhat similar in having great products with patent protection and a few year technology advantage over the competitiion. But, with GTAT getting their due before the deliver product or even start their Mesa, AZ plant, they could be more risky than HIMX which makes money and has a great base business. GTAT does have great long term potential with their Hyperion thin slicing technology in all product lines. I am well positioned in both.
Is anyone here also playing MU (MIcron)? I am also well postioned there after 6+ months but they reporrt in early to mid-April as they have an oddball quarter. Most analysts are bullish on them but they have stalled a bit and they could be a good buy or option play is anyone wants to research them.
With all the talk about analysts and upgrades, y'all may want to look at the analysts recent updates revenue and EPS on GTAT's Yahoo page. It is good to also note the range (min & max) versus just focusing on the averages.
Just don't shoot the messenger as I am only reporting very recent changes. I do think this is bullish that the share price is advancing in spite of these as investors are focused on the future improved story.
March 2014 went from -$0.08 to -$0.11 30 days ago (after 4Q 2013 CC) to $0.20 average (range is -0.11 to -0.24). The revenue projection is $27 million.
June 2014 went from $0.00 to -$0.02 to now -$0.08 (range is $0.00 to -$0.16) on $85.3 million in revenue.
FY2014 is $0.09 EPS (range is -$0.01 to $0.18) on $688 million in revenue showing this to be a 2H 2014 story.
FY2015 has moved from $0.72 to $0.73 to now $0.78 (range is $0.45 to $1.38) on $1.17 billion in revenue.
Again, I am only reporting recent updates. I have to think these are associated with the recent upgrades we have seen. But, with a 30 P/E, that provides a ~$24 price with the timing dependent upon whether that is a forward or actual P/E.
I tend to look more at PEG's (P/E to Growth) around 0.8 or so which means GTAT could support a much higher than 30 P/E.
My personal feeling is that the TQNT/RFMD merger has returned 85+% of the gains now with the remaining gains coming much harder, with higher expectations and risks of performance and the overall markets.
Ironic as I sold most of mine yesterday and now only hold my Jan 2015 $7 calls which would be short term gains if I sold them so I may hold these to Jan 2015 for some exposure and long term capital gains taxes (20% vs. 40%).
I have been wondering why the MM's and/or traders have been holding HIMX back for months now. So, I don't know that it is tied to options expiration or just wanting to accumulate shares. The institutional ownership is still below 20% so that is a possibility.
But, if you watch Level II trading, you will see larger asks and then large shares thrown at the bid to take it down several cents (probably tripping up sell stop orders along the way).
But, as a long term investor here, I am patient and know HIMX will eventually get over $30 in 2015/6 which is fine with me. But, I do see some price manipulation here (not claiming it is illegal) as a true seller would let the bid come to them and not throw shares at the bid to take it down.
The trading pattern is getting known for being up early and then coming back down later in the day so I am sure the traders trade on that also.
If you want to protect yourself, price out and consider selling covered calls. You can certainly make more money than by selling into the market today. The price premium you get is your downside insurance.
There are many expiration dates and strike prices to consider.
Quick examples are the June 2014:
- $18's are bidding $1.90 (net $19.90 with 11.1% downside protection)
- $19's are bidding $1.60 (net $20.60 with 9.4% downside protection)
- $20's are bidding $1.35 (net $21.35 with 7.9% downside protection)
This is only a suggestion and you should do what is right for you. I only want to point out that there are more than one way to sell stock........and options can help extend a gain. You can also set a running sell stop (mental stop sometimes works better than a physical stop that traders and MM's can see and hit).
In addition to the March $14's trading over 1,000 contracts (100,000 shares today), see:
- June 2014 $19's (2,006 contracts) at $0.75/share
- June 2014 $24's (2,000 contacts) at $0.20/share
You can get $15 and more for your HIMX by:
- Selling Apr covered calls; bid is $1.35 for the $14 calls for total of $15.35
- Selling Apr covered calls; bid is $0.90 for the $15 calls for a total of $15.90
- Selling June covered calls; bid is $2.20 for the $14 calls for a total of $16.20
- Selling June covered calls; bid is $1.75 for the $15 calls for a total of $16.75
- Selling June covered calls; bid is $1.40 for the $16 calls for a total of $17.40
- Selling June covered calls; bid is $1.10 for the $17 calls for a total of $18..10
If the shares are not over the strike price on the option expiration date, you get to keep your shares and the premium. So, if you want to increase the likelihood that they sell, sell the $14's otherwise take a chance with a greater return and sell the $15's or $16's or higher.
You can sell these calls if you want........and if you feel this is a great deal.
Your other comments are too general to really warrant a comment as calls come in all strike prices........both in and out of the money so I am not sure how you can write:
"I think the talk was about the person you BOUGHT these calls not selling calls.those that sell calls usually make money while those that buy call usually lose..."
I have some GTAT, TQNT and MU calls that that are now well in the money and up very nicely which sort of goes against your writing............but again this generally depends upon the strike price and then stock movement so I would never make the general statement you did.
But, buy HIMX and sell those calls as that can get you 30% in less than 4 months.
I'd love to debate the relative merits of HIMX and GTAT with you.......as I own both and need to make decisions on both (next thing after buying is deciding when/how to sell.......even if that is months or years off........I like to have a plan which can be changed with new data).
Rather than do that here, I will email you at your user name @ yahoo. If that is not correct, that does work for my email address.
As a note, I have GTAT from $4 in June having sold some June Calls but then also owning some Jan 2015 Calls and selling some Jan 2015 Puts (also a bullish bet). With GTAT now over $16, that is up 400% over 10 months. I have HIMX from $1.90 in Oct 2012 so am up over 700% there albeit over 16 months.
So, for me and my buying prices/times, these are very similar. I see HIMX as having much promise and much ahead of it as the consumer products with LCOS displays, LCOS Camera Arrays and Pico Projector get released. I see GTAT as getting ahead of itself with some risks of time (when iPhone 6, when Hyperion, when SiC, etc, etc.) and GTAT needing to perform flawlessly to continue to move up.
Anyway, give me a few days to put together an email where we can debate the relative merits of these two. Part of my strategy is to retire very soon and thus a need to reduce risk/exposure to individual stocks (will eventually sell these and reinvest in ETF's).
Seems there are few legitimate posters here with mostly spam.
I sold 80% when LXRX ran over $3 in late 2013.........but mistakenly held 20% of my position just to keep me interested and following LXRX.
This is now a year since they said they were looking to partner and most are tired of this story...........and wondering why it is so hard to find a partner on fair terms.
Oh well, I guess I still have a reason to follow LXRX for another quarter or longer.
I am not a good market timer..........but most of the good news and dividend are coming in the second half of 2014. That is when I expect HIMX to move with conviction. Right now, the MM's and traders can jerk HIMX around. HIMX needs investors..........buyers who buy and hold to move higher.
If you think this is such a foolish trade, you can be the person selling these calls as the bid is still there.
Again, I see selling these calls as a reasonable trade.........and surprised more people are not taking it. Both sides can be big winners.
If that were true........or universally thought to be true, the Call Option Buyer would never have purchased these calls.
And, we don't know that the MM was on the other side of this Call Option Trade.
These have been larger trades and I doubt it was done by someone who thought the deck was stacked against them.
I trade some options and easily profit on 75% of my Option Trades (both buy/sell calls, sell puts).
The seller of these Calls could also be bullish on HIMX.........but happy making 30% in 4 months while getting downside protection.
Lastly, this could trade into any run-up in anticipation of the July dividend.
There were another 1,452 Call Contracts added today making the total open contracts 15,138 or 1,513,800 shares. The last trade was at $0.80 so that is well over $1.2 million betting on HIMX being above $18 on the 3rd Friday of June 2014.
One would have to think the Call Option buyer is wanting to at least double their money to take this risk. As the Option Buyer doesn't make a profit until the shares trade over $18.80, it would seem they are betting on a June share price closer to $19.50 or $20.
Buying HIMX here and then selling the covered calls for $0.80 gives good downside protection while netting someone $18.80 for shares they can buy now for $14.30. Not a bad investment and return for less than 4 months.
Agree with the props to Chelle although I am a relative late comer buying in at $4 in June.........and then adding some Call options and selling some Puts.
Props also to Cali, Mungee, Solarfinance, etc., etc. for all the insight and help.
I will be available for another Mesa Plant drive-by starting on Saturday; 15-March 2014 as I am traveling and then on vacation until then.
I am not sure if HIMX will break through $14.42 today or not as you can see the MM's throw shares at the bid to take it down several cents.........probably tripping up sell stop orders at the same time.
But, HIMX is getting their story out this month at the 3 Investor's conferences (along with Meet & Greets) in San Francisco, New York and Taiwan.
Plus, longer term, we have the dividend this summer and the release of various products leading to increased revenue and profits. I still see HIMX as a second half 2014 story.............but wouldn't mind Wall Street buying in now and looking ahead to all the good things coming.
Just how is Micorsoft going to project and display all of this...........perhaps using HIMX pico projectors????
HIMX is in the sweet spot for display technologies (LCOS, Camera Arrays, etc.)..........whiile GTAT is in the sweet spot for crystalline materials.............and TQNT is in the sweet spot for mobile communications. Great portfolio.
Now, it is just a question of how the governments can screw up the economies????
You must not be following the news to write what you did.
Google is preparing the rollout of their latest Android software update for Glasses (had some issues and a delay) but they communicated all of this. So, they are going ahead with the KitKat update for Google Glasses so there is no cancelation.
You are forever pulling this BS. Why are you never wrong on the positive sense?
Thanks much. I hadn't thought of checking the Investor's presentation. Most of the sites I had looked only have current ownership (Yahoo, NASDAQ).
Thanks for the update and tip.