A new closing high of $17.50 today on a down market day and one without the typical closing sell-off as I have seen over the past two weeks. Today's close was very close to the daily high of $17.53.
The previous closing high was on 6-Nov 2015 just a few days after reporting 3Q 2015 revenue and earnings which beat estaimtes and CRUSHED year ago quarter comparisons. And, with 4Q revenue and estimates now being raised by analysts (after guidance from Mgmt), it is only right that MXL closes at new highs.........again and again and again.
Look at the Analysts Estimates linked to the Yahoo Finance MXL page and you will see they will more than double the revenue from 4Q 2014 and report over 7 times the EPS.......while forward P/E is still under 15.
There was someone on Market Pulse who wrote that there were lots of shares trading at $17.50 and being routed on several exchanges (to avoid raising suspecion as much as that is possible). Could this be the shorts now covering as they don't want to report being short in their year end reports?
And, there are a lot of shorts to cover as I posted here last week........just like there are many outsiders looking for growth in today's market and wanting to own shares in MXL.
Insider Monkey is getting a negative reputation for misleading information on these sorts of things. It is almost like they are taking money from traders for posting misleading information. I have now seen this on 3 different stock sites.
Also, no one should be trying to emulate the hedge funds. It is better to watch the Institutions who are much more investors than traders.
The fact that MSFT is taking reservations for the Hololens and associated Software Development Kits basically tells you by action that MISFT is moving forward with this effort. Microsoft has a respectable reputation to keep among software developers and other commercial partners so they are not going to do anything untoward.
Here is the text of the article referenced by sbacchus2003:
"Microsoft has revealed last month its HoloLens mixed reality head-mounted display. This device will be sold to specific developers that have applied for a kit in Q1 2016. Until now, Microsoft hasn’t revealed how many developers have jumped at the chance to pre-order HoloLens, but the company is “very, very happy” with the number of applicants.
Scott Erickson, the Senior director of HoloLens, said that the amount of developers for a HoloLens kit is very high. Unfortunately, the company will not share numbers for now, but Erickson added that they are very excited with the numbers they’ve seen. He already added that since they’ve presented the HoloLens back on January 21, 2015, the “phone doesn’t stop ringing”, which clearly means that there are many people interested on getting their hands on it.
It seems that one of the reasons why Microsoft doesn’t want to give out numbers yet is because it’s not sure yet if all the people who’ve applied are truly developers. Erickson knows that a lot of people are excited about the device, but they want to make sure that those who will get the HoloLens developer kit will also start developing applications for it.
Keep in mind that the developer edition of HoloLens costs 3000 dollars and we’re not sure yet when a consumer version of the device will be released. There are rumors which say that once the customer version of HoloLens will be released, it will be cheaper than the developer version, but this was not confirmed by Microsoft and it is too early to estimate that.
We’re not sure when Microsoft will announce the “public” variant of this device and how much it will cost, but hopefully sometime in the middle of 2016 we will find out."
Great to have you posting news most of the rest of us do not always find. In looking for the article you reference, I also found this from 6 days ago:
"TIME has named the HoloLens the headdevice of 2015. Whilst no longer yet available, TIME still believes it's the gadget to overcome in 2015, beating out some serious competition. At the list was once a 16TB solid-state power from Samsung, Google"s self-driving vehicle, a DJI drone and masses more. In the description, TIME states:
While much of the generation international is gaga over virtual reality, Microsoft is making a large bet in a similar-sounding yet very other direction: Combined reality. Wear the HoloLens, and holographic photographs will all of sudden seem around your physical environment. The headset is potentially helpful for pros from surgeons to area astronauts.
Pretty cool to look HoloLens remain the middle of a huge number of center of attention and hype forward of its release. Developer kits are expected to turn out to beto be had in early 2016, although they are wearing rather a hefty value tag. Are you excited for HoloLens? Let us know in the comments!"
I am an investor and not a trader.....so I will just be holding and ready to add if the shorts try to take it down.
The 4Q 2015 Conference Calls and Earnings announcement is going to move this stock up just like we saw after they reported the great 3Q 2015 revenue and earnings as the comparisons are easy and the headlines will look great. But, more than anything else, swapping out the expected $0.42 EPS for the prior year's $0.05 will really cause the P/E and other financial metrics to look attractive.
The median price target is $20......and that is using the lowball $15/share targetr which is not just wrong.......but also older and it has not been changed since MXL was $10.
What other stocks are out there with this sort of easy comparisons? I know I can sleep easy holding MXL.......but I do see some daily 'price management' which I suspect is either the shorts tryng to bring it down to cover.......or some buyers trying to add to their position.
Seems only ~180,000 (~1/2%) of the shorts covered during the first half of November meaning they are either giving up profits or increasing losses as the share price has been moving upwards.
These shorts will need to cover by year end 2015 or have to report being short......and you would think would want to cover by the end of Jan 2016 or risk being short during any additional restructuring announcements and the 4Q 2015 revenue and earnings report.
As bad as things seem, most of the bad news is out and Goldman is advising them on asset sales and restructuring....which I would say is a positive.
Date: Short Volume
Seems only 325,000 (~12%) of the shorts covered in the first half of November 2015; which covers the period where MXL announced their 3Q 2015 Revenue and Earnings (which were up 190% and 8+ times over 3Q 2014). Perhaps some covered but most saw the response to the announcements and are hoping to cover during a later period of weakness.
But, I am willing to be that we see some covering by year end 2015 or they will have to report their shorts to their investors. And, I would certainly think we see the shorts cover by the first half of February 2016 when MXL reports their 4Q 2015 revenue and earnings which are expected to be up over 150% and 6+times over 4Q 2014).
If you think this below meant I was ready for the old folks home in the next 10 years, you missed the + sign.
"...I absolutely want them to perfect Virtual Reality in the next 10+ years so when I am in the old folks home..."
I think I am decades away from going to an old folks home. But, I also want self driving cars prefected in the next 10+ years because at some point, I may need to give up my driver's license.....and they will greatly protect me and others from injury and death.
Another quote for the statistically astute: "The one common factor among all drivers is that they all feel they are above average drivers.".
I don't mind the question but the answer is mostly irrelevant and misleading as it would only lead to prejudicial judgements, using primarily age, as not all those of the same age have the same attributes, deficiencies and life experiences. And, as you know very little else about me, you would put far to much emphasis on my age and not the totality of my attributes, deficiencies and life experiences.......and how I acquired them and what I did with them..
A better question would be about life experiences and associated learnings and failings as they are much more relevant...along with how i came about them.
One thing I will tell you is that I do collect quotes which are short bits of wisdom (and witticisms). Eleanor Roosevelt once said "Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people."
So, do you care to tell the Message Board why you care to ask about my age.......and only my age......and perhaps why you would think I would reveal personal information about myself in a public forum where I don't know the public.......but do know bits about you from your writings and belittling rants which I do not view as appropriate?
I like this quote also:
"The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man."
George Bernard Shaw, Man and Superman (1903) "Maxims for Revolutionists" Irish dramatist & socialist (1856 - 1950)
As for the Oculus Rift....what we know now is that this is probably a Virtual Reality device and thus will not use HIMX's LCOS displays.....which are generally better suited for Augmented Reality. HIMX did supply a Timing Controller to the Rift which was instrumental in virtually (pun intended) removing the time lag between action and display and which is credited with greatly reducing the motion sickness/nausea some were experiencing.
In the long run, Augmented Reality will probably greatly exceed Virtual Reality although there will be markets for both. Virtual Reality is the easier item as it is just a display whereas Augmented Reality needs to show the current reality with overlays.....so it needs real world item identifications and distance/movement measurements.
I also think that Augmented Reality can encroach more into Virtual Reality than Virtual Reality can encroach into Augmented Reality.
But, I absolutely want them to perfect Virtual Reality in the next 10+ years so when I am in the old folks home.....I can still live an exciting life........Virtually :-)
Note that I am not advocating trading options. I am advocating using them, along with the underlying stock, to reduce risk while achieving decent gains.
Selling puts can allow you to buy shares in the futre for less than the current market price (or get income for just selling them and letting them expire worthless) and selling calls can allow you to get a higher sales price in the future than selling today at the market.
You do give up some upside......but if you were going to buy or sell anyway, they can get you better prices than buying/selling at the market today. Options also let you reduce risk for the price of giving up some upside....but my example shows how to get around 50% annual return on your investment while having downside protection which you don't get by buying the stock.
Finally, just knowing about options and following them can tell you something about the underlying stock......and again allow you to reduce risk while still making nice profits.
Learning options is really not that difficult. Calls are the right to buy at a given (call strike) price and Puts are the right to sell at a given price. The seller is granting the buyer option to exercise that right or not. An option contract is for 100 shares (so 10 contracts is 1000 shares).
If you enjoy investing, learning options is also enjoyable and allow you to buy and sell better...with some reduced risk.
Have a great family Thanksgiving.
Yes, I am a bit surprised at the recent strength in GNW lately.......and why I am looking at reducing risk somewhat by selling covered calls. I am not greedy and the return is pretty decent with some downside protection. If I could do this time after time..........
I have to respectively disagree as the covered call strategy I laid out reduces risk vs. buying the shares.
You are correct in that it caps the upside.......but I fail to see what is wrong with a 30% to 60%/ annualized return on capital while having 13% or 6% downside protection than just holding the shares outright.
Note also that you don't have to do this with all your shares. But, with a less risk and a very reasonable return on investment, it is certainly a valid proposition for those who choose to take it.
Not sure who 'thumbed you down' as those are valid comments. But, if you are going to hold GNW, you have this same risk of GNW dropping to the 52 week low.......and selling covered calls does reduce your risk and losses so this is still a very valid play.
Now, if you really thought that GNW was going to its 52 week low, you would be selling your shares and perhaps buying Puts to profit from the downturn at less risk than selling GNW short.
The option holder decides.........as they bought the option and can decide if they want to exercise the $8 option at $8 or not. Those who sold the option no longer controls the action........but has been paid an acceptable amount to them for giving up that option and control.
But, if the option is exercised and that number of shares are taken from you, you would know that weekend and could thus buy back your shares around $8 on the following Monday........and perhaps sell more covered calls.
My personal experience is that people are off work and trading on the holidays (Friday after Thanksgivinng, day before/after Christmas and then day around New Years) as people off and trading are generally buying stock and I see very light volume (pros are off and not buying/selling) and a general bias upwards on those days.
The shares which are down on the year (or at least the last half of the year), do see some tax loss sellling pressure so I don't mean to say everything is up.
I'll be watching again to see if what I have noticed in years past will be true again. That is not to say I advise buying then as I would not. Only that the amatuers are generally buying shares and selling for tax losses.
Thanks although I was already aware of that.
But, do you think the 1.875 more shares shorted in the first half of November are really associated with those convertible bonds? Wouldn't those who wanted to hedge on those bonds have already done that months ago? That is what the debate should be.
MXL is getting very close to a new 52 week high today....although you can see the traders taking advantage of the move with lots of daily up/down volatility. I would have to think the shorts are getting more and more nervous knowing the year end generally rallies nicely and they may have to report being short....by quite a bit in their year end reports.
By the way, any "Triple Top" makes me think of a head and shoulders formation.
Buy the shares today at $5.13 and sell the March 2016 Call Options:
+ Get $0.65 (bid) for the $5 Calls netting you $5.65 (~10% gain in 4 months or ~30%/year annual ROI) or having $0.65 (~13%) for downside protection.
+ Get $0.29 (bid) for the $6 cals netting you $6.29 (~20% gain in 4 months or ~60%/year annual ROI) or having $0.29 (6%) for downside protection.