If you look, you will see that HIMX does have Foxconn as a customer..........and Foxconn manufactures and assembles Apple products. So, put two and two together and see what you get (if it is not HIMX sells to Apple via Foxconn), keep trying.
See the GTAT Message Board as there is good information there (among the regular bs posts). I have owned GTAT since June 2013 at $4. I also sold June 2014 $17 Puts which just expired worthless netting me some gains. I have also sold $17 Puts for Jan 2015 and Jan 2016 which still have good value to them. Selling Puts is a bullish trade.
Good post here but:
- Are you changing your mind about HIMX still being tied too closely with Google Glass? This has always been your issue with HIMX..........so.............are you changing your mind on this or are you increasing your probability of this successfully happening?
Note that I have the same issue but have done well hedging that risk via options and sell stop limits so I have been able to let the momentum play out a bit and profit from that (admittedly with some luck).
To offset the Google Glass risk, there is the fact that HIMX is working with many other companies on similar products and then auto manufacturers on Heads Up Displays. I think Rockchip was mentioned this past week as developing a glass which won some show award using the HIMX LCOS display. I also think we are getting closer to hearing more about LCOS camera arrays and additional growth in CMOS sales.
The Amazon Fire Phone will help sell these LCOS camera arrays and CMOS sensors as more phones move to head movement and track your eyes (Samsung has also tried to integrate these).
In the short term, the dividend will be bullish as the shorts will want to cover and then there will be some dividend reinvestment buying. I did some buying last week and earlier this week for this reason. I also think most of the bad news in factored into the stock and it is now morphing back to a value play.
Longer term, the bigger risk to me is how the share price will react if Google doesn't increase their holding in Himax Displays by the late September date shown in the Google announcement. There is a smaller risk on 3Q 2014 outlook/guidance but management has been good about hitting their guidance and thus 2Q will be good with the additional profits on their past investment which was bought out.
I have to confess that I am not familiar with an "Iron Condor" Option strategy. I'll have to research this.
I generally only play one side of options and then 75% of those are bullish bets (due to general overall bullish trend of the market). I do think selling Puts is where the safer money is as opposed to buying shares.........but you do give up the extreme upside. Buying calls is really just controlling more shares but you pay for this via some premium and by having to guess on timing.
Would be great to have an in-person discussion to share option strategies.
Yes, GTAT is being played the traders who look for volatile or high beta stocks. Fridays are generally the weakest day of the week on these types of stocks as most traders sell so they don't have to pay any margin interest over the two non-trading weekend days (for those trading on margin which is most traders like this who like leverage).
I always wondered why others did not see these sorts of trading trends and find a way to profit from it (short on Fridays and cover on Mondays........or maybe they do????).
Go look at GTAT's historical prices and you will see that around 3 of 4 Fridays are down days. And, the average price movement down is generally larger than any Friday move up.
Yes, long straddles are a option strategy. There are many such strategies which somewhat depend upon what you think of the stock and then the price action with the additional variable of timing thrown in.
Straddles are generally used when you expect big moves in the stock..........but don't know which direction it will be.........but you do have some idea of the timing (generally around earnings announcements).
But, why do you want to do a straddle? Do you expect an even risk of upward and downward move? Why not just consider buying calls or selling puts and play a single direction of GTAT share price movement??? Why give up some of your gains if the risk (chance and magnitude of move) are not even going up or going down.
Seeing the same sort of thing today (Wednesday; 18-June 2014).
- The last trade of the day was 61,900 shares at $18.91
- After hours trade of 121,133 shares at $18.84
- After hours trade of 66,900 shares at $18.8166
Again, I don't know what these larger trades mean but I am guessing they are sales from MM's to institutional customers...............and perhaps MM's working in concert during the day and 'balancing their books'????
But, this activity in GTAT is somewhat unusual and that is why I mention it. Preparing for triple witching????
Thanks for the feedback/comments.
Have you ever heard of two MM's cooperating against the rest of the MM pack? That is what I meant when I wrote MM's balancing trades among themselves.
I have read a bit on the internet about MM tricks/tactics and this is one. I do agree that the MM's usually compete against each other but cooperation among two on occasion is not unheard of.
But, these larger volume trades could be MM's accumulating for their institutional customers.
Regardless, I saw these larger trades and was just reporting them and speculating why.
There are two sites. I can't vouch for their accuracy or where they get the data..............but watching for changes in trends is valuable as long as the tracking system is consistent.
See shortstockvolume and shortanalytics for two sites.
Keep in mind that there was a company who won the award at the Taiwan computer show which was a type of Google Glass. One of our Taiwan buddies posted this a week or so ago.
As it was a Taiwan company, it was not covered much here by the USA press............and thus why it is not in the article you posted..............but it is still real..............and it did win best in show award!!!!!!!!!
Anyone else notice the final trade of the day was 39,900 shares? I only see this infrequently and view it as re-balancing among MM's as they 'make a market' or ensure 'orderly markets' or an accumulation by an MM for a fund/institution.
But, something is up. I started buying again this morning on weakness as that dividend is too good to pass up. There will be some short covering going into the dividend (or they pay it) and then some dividend buying after the dividend. All the bad news is in the stock it would seem.
If anyone is watching, there were some interesting last and after hour trades today:
- last trade was 160,500 shares at $18.96
- After hour trade of 24,018 shares at $18.96
- After hour trade of 137,900 shares at $19.97
I have always viewed these larger last and after hour trades as:
- MM's balancing trades among themselves as they 'make a liquid market' and 'manage prices'
- Arranged sale to a larger fund/institution as the MM accumulated over a day or more on their customer's behalf
Regardless, I see this action is bullish as there is higher volume and definitely interest.
Finally, if anyone is watching the daily short %age trading, it has ticked up to 31% the past two days from 25%................although it has been higher in the past.
Things are afoot...............and out of the ordinary.
That language ("...we retain ownership of any modifications or improvements to our pre-existing intellectual property and may use such improvements in products sold to other customers.") does not sound like something from the bigger companies like Apple, Samsung, Google, etc. as they generally want the IP developed with their money.........and they also like to keep new developments to themselves.
PXLW is certainly intriguing................but I still don't get why we need UHD on our smaller smartphones when we are happy with 1080p on our large screen HDTV's. Even I have a hard time telling an UHD from a HDTV display on anything under 42".
And, content streaming this higher def content will only eat up data plans. I see this as going to UHD TV's first and foremost..........with TI and others in this space.
What's your point? Where is the proof of the bearish view and Google moving away from HIMX???????
It happens on both sides............but what kneshevich posts has facts as you could read in the conference calls.
There was a time that oil and natural gas were linked (price multiple)..............and natural gas is still used for power generation.............but can also be used for fuel for vehicles, plastics, fertilizers, etc.
So, there is a weak historical link between oil and solar.................and with more plug-in cars, that weaker link could still be valid to some degree.
In the long term, I think we are all well ahead with something like Google Glass. Easier than looking at your wrist and shows a whole lot more data (plus can do facial recognition, street view recognition, sign recognition and interpretation, etc., etc.).
You still haven't explained why you are on this board or when/why/how HIMX will get to $4 where you said you would buy (probably since at $4 you would then think it was worth $4.01???). Do you not have a life? What are you buying/selling these days?
As for the connection between HIMX and Amazon's upcoming smartphone.............you don't seem to have a clue.
First, it doesn't even matter if HIMX is in the Amazon smartphone as any phone takes away the opportunity for another supplier to sell a smartphone. If HIMX is in the Amazon smartphone that could add to sales if it displaces a phone without HIMX or with a lower % content of HIMX. If HIMX is not in the Amazon smartphone, it is probably negative for HIMX as most other smartphones have some HIMX content.
Just note that HIMX can be devices without people knowing as they also produce components for other companies who make the finished device component for smartphones. Look at their customer list as it is more than just finished product manufacturers.............it also includes component suppliers.
If Amazon releases a smartwatch, that is just more opportunity for HIMX as they are big on displays and controllers among other items.
Note that Amazon most likely will see their devices for lower margins and that could squeeze other smartphone supplier margins and these supplier's will then squeeze their suppliers. So, the Amazon smartphone could affect margins to all sellers and suppliers. This will cause some of the lower margin suppliers to have problems and perhaps drop out of business leaving the stronger companies. HIMX has really good margins and that should help make them one of the survivors.
The Jan 2015 $7's are asking $11.60 so you are paying $18.60 for the shares versus the $18.32 it is trading at.
Selling Puts is a bullish move (buying puts is bearish or hedging). And, selling Puts gives you money into your account the day you sell them.
The risk is not getting the shares and the share price running up much higher..........but the fact you get money now and spend nothing allows you to control more contracts if you want.
There are two basic selling Put strategy:
1) Selling insurance for the premium with no plan to ever get the shares. In this case, you sell Puts at a strike price a bit higher than where you think the price will be.
- If you are right and the share price is higher than the Put price, you will not get shares but get to keep the premium paid and you walk away with the cash after putting up none. Good income for selling puts.
- If you are wrong and the shares are not trade higher than the strike price, you can always buy back your put..............generally for less money than you received as long as the shares are up something in value.........or, you allow the shares to be put to you for lower than you would have paid if you bought them instead of selling the puts.
2) Selling Puts for really higher prices to ensure that the shares are put to you.
- Even in this case, you can buy back the puts......at a much lower price than you got selling them if you don't want the shares.
I do a bit of both.......with lots of sold $17 Puts for Jan 2015. I may not get the shares put to me but at least I got over $5/share for selling the Puts (now only bidding $3 as I did mine several weeks ago). And, at $18 now, most likely I will never get these shares......but I did this on 400 contracts (40,000 shares) of GTAT.
Bid is now $3 meaning your net cost is $14/share....if you get them but you do get to keep the $3 and can use that in your account.
Options are not much used.........and Puts used least of all.
I still have to wonder if a Hyperion add-on is a remote possibility as cutting the sapphire ingots at the site where they are grown great reduces the handling and thus the cost. A supply chain and logistics guy like Tim Cook has to realize this.
The soon to be awarded free trade zone will also be good news however expected it is.
I generally agree with your post but..........
- Why not buy Put Options rather than short the shares as that allows more upside potential?
- At this point, the convertible owners have to know more about the potential of GTAT and thus more willing to let the profits ride
- The convertible owners also have to know the potential for a short squeeze and want a piece of that
If I was a convertible owner, I would probably let my profits run based upon the forward knowledge, the Hicz Qatar news this week, the Japan potential and all the other good news............and the short squeeze potential. If I wanted some 'hedge', I would but puts.
I also value your industry and technical input.
Have you priced GTAT Put Options. Selling them is a bullish bet. You may or may not get the shares..........but you get to keep the premium regardless.
Right now, the price you would get for selling $17 Puts is around $3 for Jan 2015 and $5 for Jan 2016. As GTAT should be well above $17 on these dates, you will keep the $3 and $5 premiums..........and hold the cash starting from the day you sell the Puts.
If the share price drops for whatever reason, you are better off getting shares put to you in Jan 2015 for $17 (less the $3 for a net price of $14) or Jan 2016 (less $5 for a net price of $12) which is far superior to paying over $18.30 today.
Check selling Put Options this weekend and take advantage before the prices change.
If you want the share Put to you, you might want to sell the $20 or $25 Puts for Jan 2015.