Agree. You might expect perfection from a $100 stock.......but a $3 stock which earns over $0.11/quarter and has a book value of $28/share, it is very safe at $3......and $4 or $5 or more.
I am surprised that Wall Street has mostly missed this. I expect some games being played.......but who is going to get scared out of GNW now? Drop this to $2.50 if you dare as there are many buyers now waiting to buy or add to their positions.
At this point, the only real question is who high GNW goes.......and how soon. But, $3 is a very strong buy now and there was enough in the Conference Call to be convincing that some separation is coming between LTC and other segments.
I see this as very bullish. No impact on GAAP earnings in 2016 but then accretive in 2017. Very little downside to this transaction.......and could really help growth going forward.
I wasn't taking you are negative or anything. I just think fund managers know the games being played......and have convictions in their picks......so long as they research them carefully and review them often. I don't think they get scared off of good valuation stocks when games are being played.
Besides, when a fund manager sells they have to buy something else. Those who get scared out of the good stocks end up under-performing and don't last long.
So, that gets me back to the question of what someone selling MXL would buy? I think many of the fund managers know what they are getting when they buy MXL.......inducing good valuation, growth primarily from acquisition and the associated games. But, over a longer period, those playing games with MXL stock can only do so much as the valuation and growth will attract enough investors to punish the players if they make some wrong steps.
I am in since last August at $9. There was no reason for MXL to be $9 then and it was on a take down that I bought. I added on dips since then.......including two weeks ago on the bigger dip which turned out to the day before MXL Mgmt put out a PR to defend their stock.
I think the fund managers know about these games and are not scared off as easily as you think. The short volume on MXL has been increasing and these shorts are probably associated with the share price games.....but I suspect their goal is to eventually cover.
Seems another 368,000+ shares were shorted in the first half of April 2016. This is also around 1.2 million more than the end of Jan 2015.
What are these shorters thinking? What price or event are they waiting for before they cover? I would think there is much more upside than downside here and I would not want to be short KOPN at this price.......but I would like to understand their thinking.
Actually, isn't May 4th a bit early for KOPN giving the prior quarter's numbers and holding a conference call? Could this earlier than usual date be bullish?
Perhaps this is why there was 'painting of the tape' with a single shares sold at $0.19 below the close......while there were thousands sold afterhours at the closing price.
The shorts have to be nervous with the Conference Call coming up......and really not being able to take HIMX down much with their 4.3 million shares in the past month.
That 1 share which dropped HIMX by $0.19 in after hours is exactly the sort of trick a shorter would play. And, as we all know, this is called 'painting the tape' hoping others don't look to see that it was a single share.
I understand your thinking about fund managers and MXL........but I think you are not thinking this through.
First, one should have a plan for funds which means finding something with the potential of MXL. Look at the relative valuations for MXL and then other stocks. Would you sell something like MXL this close to earnings.....which have been mostly pre-announced?
And, what would you buy? Seriously, what other stocks do you see with the potential of MXL as I would love to know.
When I look at the relative valuations in the market, I see very few opportunities like MXL....and I started buying last August at $9. But, MXL has more potential than perhaps 95% of what I look at. So, as a fund manager of my own funds, I am saying with MXL.......because there really are not that many stocks out there with this potential.
Perhaps the best plan would be to review the company again and then tell as many other fund managers that you can about MXL. This would create a short panic or otherwise buy up all the shares that this party (or parties) wants to sell and get the share price on MXL up where it belongs.
Finally, I think you realize that getting others to sell plays right into the hands of those 'manipulating' the share price. If you always sold and then went to something with much less potential, I suspect you would lose your position as a fund manager.
No disrespect intended here......but getting wider recognition for MXL is much wiser than selling and buying something which does not have the potential of MXL.
But, I would love to know what you are aware of which has MXL's type of valuation, growth, share price potential, etc.
Seems nearly 2.795 million shares were shorted during the first half of April 2016. That is a lot of shares for HIMX and certainly explains the price drop. In fact, these shorts account for nearly 10% of the trading volume in the 11 trading days in the first half of April 2015.
Note that HIMX closed at $10.55 today and the share volume has been quite a bit lower than 2 million shares per day this week. As such, I don't think the shorts have done very well adding 4.3 million shares since the middle of March while the price is virtually the same.
What happens to the price of HIMX when these shorts cover?
Date. Short Voume. Share Price
4/15/2016 8,216,198. $10.37
3/31/2016 5,421,896. $11.24
3/15/2016 3,900,424. $10.50
2/29/2016 4,365,568. $. 9.89
2/12/2016 5,290,703. $. 7.90
1/29/2016 7,970,786. $. 7.76
From the NASDAQ site but also available from the Himax site. The Declare date is the date they announced the dividend and glhsken is correct in that last year's announcement was much earlier than typical. In fact, I think they declared this prior to the 1Q 2015 Conference Call.
Ex-Div Date. Amt $. Declare Date. Record Date. Pay Date
6/24/2015 0.3 5/11/2015 6/26/2015 7/8/2015
7/9/2014 0.27 6/24/2014 7/11/2014 7/23/2014
7/17/2013 0.25 6/17/2013 7/19/2013 7/31/2013
7/11/2012 0.063 6/11/2012. 7/13/2012 7/25/2012
7/6/2011 0.12 -- 7/8/2011 --
8/4/2010. 0.24 -- 8/6/2010 8/20/2010
6/18/2009 0.28 -- 6/22/2009. 7/6/2009
6/12/2008 0.33 -- 6/16/2008. 7/6/2009
10/3/2007 0.2 --
Interesting that GNW Appreciated nicely this week as several of the Analyst Estimates have been lowered on Yahoo's GNW Tab.
I suspect that these new, lowered EPS estimates are the result of in-depth reviews by some larger investment houses/banks and those who did these reviews (and lowered EPS) are taking a position in GNW and/or recommending it to their customers.
GNW could be the classic (but rarer) case of lowering EPS estimates but having much more confidence in these projections and thus more confidence in the value and gains in GNW.
These downward revisions do increase the forward P/E (from ridiculously to still very low) as the forward P/E is still under 5 using the reduced FY2016 EPS of $0.77 and even lower using the $0.93 EPS in FY2017. If these new numbers are simply met, GNW will more than double in the next 12 months.
If nothing else, the selling abated this week and GNW advanced well on average volume......meaning fewer sellers/shorters.....for this week.
As shown on Yahoo's MXL Analyst Estimates Tab:
+ A total of 6 analysts updated their 1Q 2016 EPS estimate based upon this week's Revenue and Expense PR and the estimate is now up a penny to $0.45.
+ Fewer analysts have raised 2Q 2016, FY2016 and FY2017; with both FY's being increased by $0.02 to $1.58 in FY2016 and $1.66 EPS in FY2017
= FY 2017 seems to be conservative as the revenue and earnings are only expected to increase by ~5% (ongoing Op Ex savings from acquisition consolidation may not be fully factored in)
I do thank MXL and their PR Department to release this week's Pre-Announcement PR to defend their stock after a 10% down day. What brought on this 'attack'? Could be be someone wanted shares to own or to close a short position by creating extreme volatility?
MXL has pre-announced in the past and all have been positive....but I suspect Mgmt would like to eliminate the revenue pre-announcement as most companies do not do this. As such, I wonder if the lack of a revenue pre-announcement gave some confidence to those creating this volume volatility.
I will say that, since I bought my first position in Aug 2015, MXL seems more 'manipulated' (for lack of a better term) than most other stocks I follow. The Beta is certainly higher and the valuation is lower which makes this a trader's dream (can trade the higher daily price swings.......but is an under-valued company if you get stuck with shares so not much to lose).
Thanks for the accolades and I do read your posts as well.
While this is a smaller matter ("Fabless"), it is meaningfulI for HIMX going forward as LCOS and WLO's are meaningful to HIMX. Any news of the Fab Plant expansion could well move the stock higher and it could also impact this summer dividend as HIMX needs capital for the plant and probably wants to stay "debt free" (another point of confusion when you look at the key statistics and see debt).
I do think HIMX needs to change their description as "Fabless" (perhaps to "Mostly Fabless" or "Fabless except for key intellectual property products") is confusing.......and could even better describe their "debt free" claim as.....higher level of cash than credit line/debt.
Still, the key is to use this message board to bring forth news, projections and even debate in a civil manner.
Both Yahoo and NASDAQ show insiders and 5% owners holding 42% of the HIMX shares.......and there were no 5% institutional owners. Where are you getting your data on the 30% by the Wu's themselves (NASDAQ site not working for me right now)?
Still, the point I was making is that HIMX was not going to be purchased without the support of the Wu's due to their significant ownership percentage.
HIMX states that it is a fabless company as the majority of their products are fabricated by others. But, if you follow the company by viewing their investor's presentations and listening to their conference calls, you will realize that they do fab a few select items........which include their LCoS displays and WLO's.
Why do you think there were discussions on their fabricating capacity of LCoS and the purchase of land near their Taiwan HQ's for the expansion of their existing LCoS fabricating facilities?
The common perception is that they do not want to have these newer items dabbed by others due to the potential for critical technologies becoming known by others.
You are missing a few things longer term holders are aware of:
+ HIMX has most likely (alluded to it but never stated) been manufacturing all the LCoS they can and stockpiling them (seemingly with some 'agreement' with the customer) to ease near term supply constraints
+ HIMX has the land and design for an expansion to their LCoS Fab plant with construction to start at some point. It is uncertain if some work has been done (to the site or purchasing fab equipment) and hopefully updated at the upcoming 1Q 2016 Conference Call
+ HIMX is about much more than just LCoS for AR/MR with display drivers, force touch controllers (and integrating them in TDDI's, etc.), CMOS, WLO's, etc, (see HIMX Investor Presentation) and more than just AR/MR/VR and cellphones as there is also auto, etc.
+ Insiders (the Wu's) control over 40% of the shares so no takeover will occur without them agreeing to this. Google was not a sale of shares....just a stake in the Himax Display company which was done to 'get cash' to HIMX for the plant. Google never purchased their option as they canceled their Google Glass and did not want to finance the plant for a competitor.
= If purchased, it would probably be from a company who would sell all products to all customers as that brings the highest value (vs. a purchase by Google, MSFT, etc. just for LCoS and such)
I would recommend you go to the HIMX website and view their investor's presentation as it is pretty informative on their products, customers and specific business opportunities with plan. Also, read the last conference call or two available at Seeking Alpha and finally the company issued PR's.
Kuwaiti oil workers went on strike and did for oil what the Doha meeting could not........reduce supply.
Kuwait says this strike may last less than a week........but oil is trading like it might last longer as it is up over 3.5% on Tuesday to over $41.
Hey trump ace,
See this for the history of dividends.......and then match that up with prior year's earnings.
While some years, HIMX paid over 70% of their prior year's earnings as a show of confidence in future profits, this year could be a bit different as HIMX needs some cash flow to expand their LCoS Fab Plant.
It is possible that the dividend gets cut as low as $0.15/share (2015 EPS was $0.18/share) which wold be a 50% cut.
Note that Taiwan gives favorable tax treatment/deduction for profits paid as dividends.......and HIMX somewhat uses this as a 'cash bonus' for employees who own shares (including the Wu's who hold lots of shares). Due to the amounts involved, the dividend policy could well be a topic for discussion at upcoming Conference Call in the first half of May 2016.
I also hope this first Chinese customer is Huawei as HIMX also sells to Xiaomi who is being censored for doing business with Iran when there were sanctions on Iran. As such, Xiaomi may not be able to export to the USA and perhaps even EU as punishment.
Hopefully this summer we see language on sales to a Chinese cell phone manufacturer......which could signal Foxconn who assembles for Apple.........or a Korean phone manufacturer.
This is 2 PR's in 2 days......so this could be a signal from HIMX to those shorting the stock. We saw this early this year when HIMX stock was under attack and HIMX started releasing some PR's in quick timing (several (three?) in one week).
If HIMX is sending a signal to the market to stop messing with the shares and shorting, that is a positive and bullish for the upcoming Conference Call. It also sets these topics up for questions at the upcoming conference calls when HIMX Mgmt might 'add color' to the news.