Drove to the plant today (3 PM 4/15/14) and can report:
- Much less materials are in parking lot staging areas
- Much of the electric switch gears appears installed
- Cooling towers (3 banks) appear near construction completion (unsure of instrumentation status) - SW side
- Two tanks appear fully constructed (but just primer paint) (SW side & SW of cooling towers)
- Many cars in employee parking lot on east side of building
- Did not see any extension of solar panels or preparation area (but unable to see the W & SW parts of the lot
- Did not see any extension of construction south of the current lot or any extension to the current building
- Did see a Culligan's truck on the north side of the building (nearer to the east side and well away from the cooling towers and tanks)
- Saw several electrical contractor trucks
- Saw only one crane (near the SW cooling towers) but could not see what they were actually doing
- North and South parking lots had a mix of cars and construction trucks. But, there was very little outside activity and most of the materials I had seen staged there now seemingly inside and installed
- Did not see any deliveries or trucks entering/exiting during the hours I was around
- There was only one larger (18 wheeler with covered trailer) truck parked in the deliveries parking lot
I would not doubt that some manufacturing is ongoing but was not able to see any proof.
Let me know if you have any questions and I can relate what I saw......or look closer for this on my next visit.
Will do cali-sun99,
I think you or someone else mentioned that the land south of the plant had been purchased by some German national??? I may do some snooping to see about dates of transfer as that is publically reported.
By chance, I am flying to Phoenix this evening and will be there until mid-May. Due to commitments, I can probably get there later Saturday afternoon at the earliest and then can also go Sunday afternoon or anytime the following week.
Let me know specifically what property you want to see in particular. I think you mentioned the properly just south of the plant??????? I'll drive the entire bit as I usually do (north side is Elliott Road and east side is South Signal Butte Road. There are no adjoining west or south roads that I am aware of.
Let me know what you prefer as per:
- Photos: Perhaps these can be used to set a baseline and then look for changes from one date to another
- Timing (day of week, time of day, etc.). I can go more than once as I am retired and enjoy driving my motorcycle and convertible. I can also go earlier and then have lunch (or find a golf course and hit balls or play) and go again a few hours.........or just park and read the message board and see if there is any crew changes going on
- Focus on any particular items like expansion, additional solar panels, grading areas, number of cars in parking lot, etc.
I just want to do my share and help as needed. It is a 20 mile trip each way from where I stay (44th & Greenway in Phoenix) and traffic does suck during rush hour but weekends are easy...........but, I am retired and can go around 2 PM and then hang out at some nearby golf course until traffic dies down around 6:30 PM.
Too bad spring training baseball is now over. The Cubs train in Mesa and I did go there for a game on my last trip (think we played Papago golf course that morning).
Just let me know what you want to focus on and if time of day/ day of week matters as I am flexible.
Same for most others. Let me know what you want to see. I can post photos online later and send invites to those wanting to view them.
I plan to read the book................but recall that humans program and deploy the computers so they are involved to some degree.
Watching price trades around option expiration and such tells me that humans are involved................albeit indirectly but involved.
And, with humans tending to copy each other with programming in HFT..............market advances and declines tend to build on each other.
I think there is a guy who is trying to build a fully computerized exchange and get rid of the market makers..........and the MM's firms are fighting this. Why?????
And, why are Market Makers needed now anyway if this all were computers JUST matching bids and asks?
Anyway, I hope to get some more insight into this when I read the book. I did see the CNBC interview with the book's author, the dude trying to build the computer only exchange and the rep of a High Frequency Trader firm. Interesting that there were comments that the trading floor people were crowded around the monitors watching. Seems like a lot of interest for a non-event if it really were just computers............
Now, as per margins.................they are only a secondary consideration as it is revenue, earnings, growth rate, market share, etc., etc, that really matter.
Margins are really only looked at in the case of fixed vs. variable costs and then if they are increasing or decreasing. Profits tell the real story and margins only help with forecasting earnings (can they grow/increase margins).
In the case of GTAT and Apple, lower margins are fine as the revenue is larger......................and HERE IS THE KICKER..............the size/scale/learning of GTAT on their contract with Apple will allow them to reduce costs and increase margins on their other businesses. People refer to this as the margin of scale or efficiencies of scale. This greatly applies in the case of GTAT who will learn/improve a lot due to Apple which will help them with Hyperion which then has its own markets and other uses.
So, get off the margin bandwagon as there are many other things which are key. Growing revenue and capturing market opportunities while increasing your business size is a huge focus and margins then come along for the ride. Cutting waste and costs are where you focus and margins come along for that ride also.
The contract with Apple and their margins on it don't begin to relate all the efficiencies of scale and additional business opportunities GTAT will get because of the contract with Apple. The Apple contract will pay most of the Hyperion R&D and create a huge business opportunity for GTAT which will never show up as an Apple contract margin............but would not materialize in the same manner if not for Apple.
Wise up and listen to others and learn rather than write notes which really say little.
You need to read more and comment less...........and when you comment, you should actually say something that makes a point.
Use of 15 P/E is an overgeneralization. Read up on PEG's (P/E to Growth rate). This is how you should be applying a P/E as a 15 is meaningless for evaluation if you don't know the growth rate.
Stocks with PEG's less than 1.0 means they are growing earnings at a faster percentage than the P/E so they will eventually look cheap from a P/E basis. The opposite is true for PEG stocks greater than 1.0 which means the P/E is higher than the growth rate in percent. These P/E's will keep rising and look ever more expensive.
This simple concept explains why some stocks have very high P/E's (have high growth rate) and lower P/E's (have lower growth rates). Again, when the growth rate and P/E are disconnected, you need to think about whether they are a buy or sell.
Generally, the higher stock gainers have lower PEG's. There are exceptions (TSLA, AMZN, TWTR, etc.) but there is a very distinct correlation.
GTAT doesn't really have a P/E yet as they are coming off losses. But, knowing that they will be growing earnings well over 35%/year, I would personally be applying a 35 P/E to their earnings each year to estimate a price target.
These thoughts are for your consideration and use. Only generalists who don't understand how to value stocks use a generic 15 P/E.
Now, think and consider this. No need to reply as there is nothing you would write that will help anyone here.
My big argument is that people don't know how to set P/E's once they estimate earnings. I always use PEG of 1.0 so the P/E can equal the growth rate (if it doesn't, then the P/E keeps shrinking and thus share price starts looking cheap and goes up). Actually, to be conservative, I use a PEG of 0.8 for estimating purposes.
So, with a growth rate of 40 this year and next, we could easily have a P/E of 30 and thus a $25 stock price in 2 years. Pretty simplistic but totally within reality. I think Wall Street will pay for growth. See GTAT, AVGO, TQNT, etc., etc. which all have very high P/E's since they are expected to be growth stocks.
And, Google needs more eyeballs for ads if you follow their earnings reports. Mobile and always on glasses are the key for Google long term.
When you think about it, Google is fighting Facebook and others for mobile ads. Google Glasses will be huge in this battle..............and could be partly why Facebook bought Oculus Rift.
Regardless of how this battle for eyeballs go, HIMX could be the big winner. Sony and Microsoft will also battle with Gaming Goggles for Gaming Console sales as Gaming Googles adds the 3rd dimension to a 2 dimensional experience now.
I somewhat agree with your "GG is much more for technical uses versus for the average citizen.....therefore, it will take a little longer to 'catch on'"
But, keep in mind the use by police which I think will become huge as they all have dash cameras now and these are much better as they move with your head, capture audio also, can scan and check license plate and license number hands free and without returning to vehicle.
As for personal use, it will also be the sharing of perspectives in real time which can help drive this. Think about going to concerts and seeing the concert from the point of view of the performer (same with sports, adventure seekers, etc.). Just look at how many Go-Pro cameras there are in use so lots of people want to share their perspectives with themselves (recording) and others.
Then, there is the virtual reality aspect where you can communicate with others via Glasses like your doctor, etc. Truckers have said that using these for directions were safer than dash mounted GPS devices. Think also of travelers with directions and sign translation.
But, I think travelers, professional use and then gaming which will be the driver for the casual person. And, as the Northland article states, most use binocular (two displays) per device.
The key is going to be the price point.........and the August teardown showed around $200 so a sales price of $300 to $350 is very possible ($25 was used for the HIMX LCOS display).
Finally, I would love to have my phone be the size of a watch and use my Glasses as my display. I suspect many others might agree....................as compared to larger and larger screened phones.
Great tournament and final. I agree that the UConn guards were just quicker and were great at anticipating passes and stealing them. I was surprised that Kentucky did not try to take more advantage of their guard height advantage.
Kentucky was behind most of almost every game but found a way to win by 2 in the end (against Wichita State, Wisconsin, etc.).
UConnn wins both Men's and Women's titles in the same year (for the second time??).
Will Calipari take the Laker gig?
You must have me confused with someone else as I don't recall sounding "optimistic of a quick recovery from the recent NAS sell offs on the post I wrote over the weekend".
Heck, I don't recall making any prediction at all on the NASDAQ or even HIMX recovering.
I do think, in the long run, that HIMX will do very well which is why I am still holding. I wrote at year end that HIMX was getting over-extended and I hedged a larger percentage of my position.
I also never really cussed the Bank of America downgrade comments..................only asked for balance and contrast with the positive comments by the many other analysts/firms. I'd really like to know the details behind Northland, Credit Suisse, Topeka, Oppenheimer, Craig-Hallum as well as Bank of America because we get very little from HIMX Mgmt (who do honor customer confidences).
I sure was investing...............and actually I sensed the bubble coming and sold out ~80% (well before it burst but also missing some gains to the actual peak). I think I sold early the prior Dec and thru to the early summer if memory serves me correctly.
And, I have slowly been reducing my holdings now also (but not in HIMX except for hedging with covered calls). I just sold all my $5 (Jan 2012) shares in TQNT at $13.40 (but not my Jan 2015 $7 calls from long ago). I sold my AVGO and several other smaller holdings recently only keeping my GTAT (partially hedged with covered calls) MU and IMOS shares (but most of these are sold Put options expiring in June and July which I will probably not roll over although they are profitable now).
The only thing I have added recently is some MU shares starting on Monday and again today on weakness.
Longer term, I don't see many catalysts for the market (tapering, eventual higher interest rates, Obamacare crushing take home pay with higher premiums and deductibles, continued world problems, etc., etc.).
Keep in mind that I am in a much different situation than most. I have enough for several retirements so I am mostly investing for my favorite charities and then for a mental exercise before/after golf and tutoring. I also have two nice pensions coming when I hit 65 along with Social Security (probably start at 70 and after I drain down my 401k's at a lower tax rate).
Article is good in differentiating the various productive uses for Google Glasses and similar wearable technology................rather than just focus on the casual public use. I have been saying for almost a year now that there are 3 or more distinct markets and this article covered them fair and fairly well.
But, shouldn't we wait for caffeine to give us the real scoop as this seems to go against his caution of yesterday.............as the stock price is also..................and Northland reiterating their $20 price target.
To be fair, I have said that there are some valid concerns in the Bank of America downgrade as much of this is about timing. HIMX is a simple hold for me as I bought in very low and I don't need the money at present (got a good chunk when I sold the Jan 2015 $20 covered calls for $2.85 on 12/31/2013). HIMX is a much tougher call for new buyers/shorters/timers and those looking for near term results.
Finally, the scope of the article was on Google Glasses.................but we know HIMX will profit from the many other uses of LCOS displays (gaming googles, etc.) and then LCOS camera arrays..............all places where HIMX has a huge technological lead and patents.
Thanks switching 2007,
The site requires one to sign-up and give a credit card number.......even for the 2 week free period. It would have been informative to read the full report...............but I don't give out my credit card information for free trials.
If anyone has read the report, can you pass along any other information or summary. As with Bank of America, timing is probably key to the price target.
Not sure why you keep coming back here and reminding me that I still get your goat.....even though I don't want it.
What do you offer here anyway? It is certainly not any keen insight as you sold at $7 and thus were off by $8 to $9 from the peak.
Now, the supposed experts have price targets of $12.50 (Bank of America) and then well over $17 to $19 (Northland, Credit Suisse, Topeka, Oppenheimer, etc.). Of course, you will reply that we should not follow analysts......but then isn't that what you claim to be?
You also do not read and comprehend. To one of your other posts, I clearly detailed that it is much more than Google Glasses (Gaming Googles, Augmented/Virtual Reality Glasses, LCOS Camera Arrays, etc., etc.) and that Google Glasses had 3 or more distinct markets (casual public which gets too much focus, productivity improvements for those who need reference documents like builders, carpenters, machinists, etc., public officials like police/fire, sharing experiences like entertainers/adventurists, and then training). These are not small markets.
But, go ahead and state some facts and make some price predictions on growth, share price, etc. so you can be on record. And, if you have no facts or predictions, what are you doing here other than gloating.........but reminding us all how wrong you were........and then telling us to listen to you??????
Finally, if you want to save people losses by keeping them from growth stocks which have higher P/E's, I have asked you to go to the GTAT message board and help those people also as that stock still loses money but is up over 400% in the past 9 months.
But, please do state your case here with some facts and predictions so you can be held to them. Mine is that HIMX will double from here in the next 18 to 24 months and I will be holding them. I also knew that HIMX had gotten ahead of itself and hedged myself with options on 31-Dec 2013 which appears to have been a good move (see my post).
Heck, if you read demerson09's posts, the really say nothing!!!!!!!!! He just writes but there is no real message or takeaway. Read one and see.
See kneshevich post about LCOS being more than Google Glass as camera will probably be larger and then there is automotive Heads Up Displays (agree more a niche).
But, many people buy on visual displays which is where HIMX is strong (LCOS displays and LCOS Camera arrays).
But, if you believe what you wrote, you should have sold long ago as you lay out a very negative risk/reward scenario.
No doubt Google Glass will be huge for HIMX but there is much more to them..............both with and without LCOS displays.
Finally, most all the analysts (even BofA) are convinced of that and only disagree on timing.
There were many more upgrades to MU than downgrades. I think this is all about the overall market and then the MM's trying to profit from those who played MU with April Options.
Note that this tech sell-off is happening before revenue, earnings and 2Q 2014 projections are released. I see very little growth in the non-tech sector so eventually the big money will move back to growth and that will be the winners in tech.
Where else will there be growth? Bio-tech perhaps. Healthcare which is an overall minefield. But, basics/staples and such are not growing and thus there is little money to be made there. Eventually, the big money will come back to tech and where the growth is. I see much of this as profit taking and shaking the weak hands before earnings.
Look at MU as there is good value there longer term............but they are shaking this and trying to profit on those who played the earnings using options. I own some shares but especially sold puts some time back (lots of $21's and then some $22's) and focused on July as that gets me their next Q also (early July for 3Q 2014 for MU).