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Himax Technologies, Inc. Message Board

haschultz1 6383 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Apr 27, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Registration now in Effect

    by frankenberrylives Feb 5, 2016 11:44 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 5 hours ago Flag

    Gosh, most here seem so sensitive to anyone questioning their beloved VUZI. From a psychological sense, I wonder if y'all are spiritual people or if you reserve your 'faith' for VUZI....as there are many unknowns here but everyone is still bullish.

    And, if everyone here knows so much, how about some projections for VUZI share price at the end of 1H 2016 (6/30/2016) and then year end 2016? What are people here expecting.......or are the big gains to come later than 2016? That is certainly a valid question.......for those who have insight here......or again, is it just faith?

    I also don't see much discussion on revenue, earnings, etc. so again, what is someone to invest on here.....faith in Mgmt. And, that is somewhat valid as one does need to trust Mgmt when they buy or own a stock. But, I prefer to have targets (revenue and EPS projections along with stated direction of company) to hold Mgmt to.

    I wrote earlier and still believe that VUZI may have potential which is why I am here. I am also considering SWKS, MXL, TNK and several others (GOOG, FB?) when their charts and the overall market sentiment & economy improves a bit. I also have my oil stocks ranked for when that time is right. But, it is good to be mostly cash.

    Holding VUZI is the issue y'all are considering and that is an easier decision than whether to buy VUZI at these prices and with these unknowns.

  • Reply to

    Registration now in Effect

    by frankenberrylives Feb 5, 2016 11:44 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 5, 2016 2:11 PM Flag

    I have read the board here but haven't seen any real plausible reason for the shelf offering. And, if it were that obvious, it should have been anticipated by the message board and yet I hadn't read that y'all expected one.

    I also know a few facts which is most shelf offerings are done at prices lower than the share price at the time the shelf offering is announced. This is an issue for me as a prospective buyer here. Sure, if you can turn back time, I would buy in below $3 and $4.......but my decision is about whether to buy in now knowing:

    + Most shelf offerings are done at discounts to current share prices (although we don't know the timing of the sale)

    + VUZI needs money for something......but we are not told why

    + VUZI chose to sell interest in the company rather than try to borrow money at historically lower rates......or sell warrants

    + VUZI did not have a working model of what they are trying to sell for $1,499 with deliveries starting in June 2016........but we know other AR HMD devices are coming........although we don't know their timing or capabilities

    + VUZI has an existing sold out product......but are not taking emails or deposits on future orders. Why is VUZI Mgmt not ramping up production and taking names for future orders.........or are all resources going into the M300.......and why can't VUZI manufacture both.......using a contractor is needed?

    So, sorry if I am confused about whether VUZI is a buy at this price/time with the unknowns and then the overall stock market issues.

    Why are the shareholders here so defensive? Where is the real discussion? There are some from a few posters......but not really enough.

    I gues the real question is why do much faith in Paul Travers and Mgmt.......although I have read up on the history of Paul and realize his passion.

  • Reply to

    Registration now in Effect

    by frankenberrylives Feb 5, 2016 11:44 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 5, 2016 12:45 PM Flag

    Hey frankenberry,

    I would sure like to hear Traver's state that he won't be selling any of these shares or less than $10. Do you think he will in the conference call?

    I would also like to hear Traver's give more detail (not just boilerplate in filing) what the money will be used for. Do you think he will during the conference call?

    In all seriousness, Traver's hand will be somewhat 'forced' by why VUZI needs this money and then somewhat determines when they need the money. Then, there is the basic economics of supply and demand.......and VUZI daily volume does vary quite a bit as it was larger around the CES but very low recently. To be fair, some of the higher volume was news related and around the hype of CES......and some of the recent lower volume is overall market concerns.

    But, what should be discussed here is why the money is needed and then when.

    For those who think they know VUZI so well, you should be able to answer that.

  • Reply to

    NEWS

    by dollarbill772002 Feb 5, 2016 8:48 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 5, 2016 12:21 PM Flag

    Hey normagain,

    Thanks for the updates. Where are you getting these.......especially the summaries? I use AmeriTrade but they generally only have the computer written reports. Do you get these from your brokerage.......as perhaps I should change?

    This post shows Baird analyst raising the price target to $10 from $9........and then your other post shows a price target of $9. Which is it........and why do these reports not agree on the price target?

  • Reply to

    Congratulations Himax

    by j1999w Feb 4, 2016 5:49 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 4, 2016 9:00 PM Flag

    Xiaomi is an orange block with an mi......and is in the bottom right corner on page 10 under Display Drivers IC's and on page 15 when they discuss Small/Medium Display Drivers IC's #$%$'s).

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 4, 2016 6:47 PM Flag

    Sorry jospgranit,

    I am just a serious investors who does a lot of due diligence before I invest and try to uncover as many positives and negatives I can. I am not a single stock cheerleader but one who likes indepth discussion and analysis before I make an investment..

    If you don't like my posts, you can put me on ignore.......but I will post what I want and where I want.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 4, 2016 6:31 PM Flag

    Hey mlady6968,

    I don't think MXL has to beat the $0.43. They need to put the focus on the growth with over 3 times the revenue as in the year before quarter and earnings around 8 times the year ago quarter.

    Then, they just give 1Q 2016 guidance as already pre-announced is again nearly 3 times the year ago quarter's revenue and over 4 times the earnings.

    Finally, they announce they have a new 5% (really 6.14%) owner which is Blackrock.

    MXL has enough going for themselves that they really just need to get the news out and get the shares into stronger hands so the games with share price don't continue as they are.....although it is now nearly predictable enough to trade a few shares and make some spare cash.

  • Reply to

    Closing Minute Trading

    by haschultz1 Feb 4, 2016 4:23 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 4, 2016 6:15 PM Flag

    Hey g8tor89,

    I did see the 164,000 share block get gobbled up. It went to 160,000 and then to 40,000 almost right away. Within another 10 seconds, they all went away and the ask moved up. I then checked the volume to be sure it was due to a buy (vs. a pullback) and the volume went up over 160,000 shares so it was some trades and someone wanted those shares.

    As khajso states in the note above yours, "I calculated a total of 288K shares traded towards the end..."

  • haschultz1 by haschultz1 Feb 4, 2016 4:23 PM Flag

    I was watching the Level II quotes at the close and saw where there was a large 164,000 share offer at the ask of $6.11. Then, this got taken out (i.e. purchased) in just a few large chunks and very quickly. The bid then went up to $6.12 but then driven back down to $6.10. So, there are some games seemingly being played here......so I don't see why a seller would advertise such a large chunk of shares rather than sell and allow it to move up.

    Anyway, I just thought I would mention this for what it is worth.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 4, 2016 4:13 PM Flag

    Hey luckylass57,

    Thanks for the quote from the CC, the past waveguide sales and connecting a few dots here for me. I recall all of these now.......but did need your help. $213,000 is a reasonable amount although not really huge......but there are also few products out right now using them.

    As frankueberbein mentions......it might be their related party Intel.

  • Reply to

    What a lengthy earnings report

    by discountbrains Feb 4, 2016 10:04 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 4, 2016 4:08 PM Flag

    Hey frankenberry,

    If that is all you got from the Q&A's, I feel sorry for you.

    Why can't you be somewhat balanced on your discussions on HIMX? You are quick to dismiss and spin:

    + a shelf offering from VUZI which was sprung on the shareholders with no discussion on need.uses
    + a website which says a product is sold out with no method to take emails or deposits for later sales
    + a company which doesn't provide estimates while you state how necessary this is for other companies
    + etc., etc.

    If only you could be fair and balanced, you might make better investment decisions.......and possibly be a better guest at parties.

  • Reply to

    What a lengthy earnings report

    by discountbrains Feb 4, 2016 10:04 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 4, 2016 3:23 PM Flag

    Did you read all the rest of the Q&A's?

    What did you learn from that? And, notice how HIMX tries to communicate with analysts and shareholders?

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 4, 2016 3:18 PM Flag

    Hey ssteph23118,

    I agree and wish more people could dispassionately discuss stocks and relative business prospects. I just want to invest in the right companies.......and am not here to bash VUZI as I absolutely think they have some potential and are doing well to develop their product and markets.

    Due to overall market conditions, I probably will not buy here until I hear more from Mgmt on many fronts and thus I will probably wait until after their earnings report and conference call. Any guesses when that will be?

  • Reply to

    What a lengthy earnings report

    by discountbrains Feb 4, 2016 10:04 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 4, 2016 2:50 PM Flag

    Hey frankenberry,

    Go read the transcript as it was asked and answered.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 4, 2016 2:43 PM Flag

    Hey vr_power,

    Great post and one I struggle with as an investor. I do think VUZI has already charted its course and will be a completed AR/VR product manufacturer and seller......although they can use Amazon and others to help with order taking & shipping of their products.

    But, as per selling technology products to others, first we really need to know (or proof) whether VUZI is 'best in class' now and whether VUZI has the capacity (money and engineers) to keep it there. Then, they also have to convince the big companies that they have the best technolog, support, R&D, etc. to maintain their lead.......along with manufacturing capacity to meet their needs.

    I follow HIMX and would recommend that you read the Q&A's from this mornings CC as they talk about their technologies in WLO's, waveguides, sensors, LCoS displays, etc........and talk about their engineers currently and actively working with multiple (30+) customers right now on various product designs......and about their next generations of these products. HIMX also have numerous complimentary products (display drivers, CMOS, Timing Controllers, Touch Controllers, power savings, etc., etc.) and are already in many products and have supply chains relations already with these companies.

    I am not trying to push HIMX here.....only for you to be aware of what they have, what they offer and what they say about ongoing activities with numerous large customers. See their patents also and R&D budget.

    On VUZI, it does seem they have set their direction as an end product manufacturer and supplier......but sales of their waveguides and other produts to others would be a great question at VUZI's upcoming Conference Call. I struggle with wanting to own a end product manufacturer vs. owning a company which sells key components to many or all of the various product manufacturers.

    Finally, it could be that VUZI is manufacturing their HMD's to prove their waveguides and would switch to a supplier if orders come???

  • I was wanting to review the Q&A's from the conference call in a bit more detail and SA only had 6:48 from the call linked.

    Now, the written transcript is available for further review on SA (I save this and highlight portions for reference). Pretty quick turnaround by SA.

  • Reply to

    Great article

    by luckylass57 Feb 2, 2016 10:51 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 4, 2016 12:54 PM Flag

    Hey frankenberry,

    I agree Google wasn't discussed on the HIMX CC....but I don't have the same takeaway. HIMX NDA's prevent any detailed discussion...and the mention of a "Super heavyweight" platform provider (most thinking Apple) also diverted attention from Google.

    I'm waiting on the transcript to review again as SA only has the opening 6:48 currently available for reply.

    I agree that Google is not much of a hardware company who only gets involved in hardware to capture eyeballs for search and ads. Accordingly, I'd think they would be fine with others handling the hardware as long as they get the ties they want to their ads and search engine. It would also seem that Google benefits much more from consumer use rather than corporate use....although work items connected to the internet will be used personally to some degree.

    Any delays in any AR glasses certainly benefits VUZI. That does mean VUZI needs to capitalize on their first mover advantage and do it right (hardware & software) for customer approval. Microsoft Hololens is probably the biggest/nearest competitor..........and they have deep pockets with huge software expertise. And, I would think Microsoft will be able to make a compelling pitch for connections to Windows and associated software programs (including databases and ties to SAP, CRM, etc.).

    So, I do agree with what VUZI is doing to really push their first mover advantage. And, they should consider some involvement with software for profits (most uses will fall into one of several categories making it very profitable to take a core kernel and customize it).....but also because the software will be integral to the success of the hardware.

    As for HIMX, we can discuss that on that MB....but they have many advantages with their large customer base, their new & integrated products, their stellar balance sheet & their great position in AR/VR as they are not just a display provider (drivers, WLO's, sensors, timing controller, power saving, e

  • Reply to

    Great article

    by luckylass57 Feb 2, 2016 10:51 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 4, 2016 11:12 AM Flag

    Thanks vo2macs,

    What is the amount of the nominal payment? That could lend some insight into what they might sell those units which are returned.......as well as give an idea of what will happen to margins in the short term.

    Again, I support this and think it is a wise move to get some glasses into various companies ASAP as VUZI needs to capitalize on their first to market advantage.

    As for software, I would imagine that most use cases would require specialized software......but I can also see where various kernels of this would be similar within various use cases (assembly, warehouse order fulfillment, etc.). As such, I can see where this could provide much synergy and profits to VUZI. But, to reduce costs and risk, they might want to partner with a software company.

  • Reply to

    What a lengthy earnings report

    by discountbrains Feb 4, 2016 10:04 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 4, 2016 10:29 AM Flag

    Great news........but keep in mind that Apple generally releases their new/updated iPhones in September. But, as they sell many millions right away, I suspect they will start buying components in July so they have two months to assemble the many millions of iPhones for the September 2016 release.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Feb 4, 2016 10:11 AM Flag

    All need to keep in mind that HIMX's financial metrics are still highly valued. At the current price of $7.88 and current 2016 EPS, that works out to be a forward P/E of 32.8.

    Taking a price target of $9 and upgraded EPS of $0.30, that is a 30 forward P/E. If EPS ends up around $0.35, $9 is still a forward P/E of 25.7.

    So, the message here is not to expect really high price targets without really large increases in 2016 and then 2017 EPS.

    The best thing for HIMX would be steady growth as we do want them to meet the high end of guidance and then raised guidance. If you recall the Dan Heyler BoA/ML report, the real advances in EPS come in 4Q 2016 and then into 2017.

    A 2016 year end price of $10 would be over 25% gain from here.......and then a 2017 year end price target of $15 would be a 50% gain. I think those are reasonable and people shouldn't be planning on much more. Hoping is fine but be careful getting ahead of your headlights.

HIMX
8.08-0.02(-0.25%)Feb 5 4:00 PMEST