I have become a boring, retired to Arizona guy. I am sitting at the airport waiting on my CA buddies for NASCAR and then a week of morning golf/afternoon spring training baseball.
As for investments, I sold my RFMD/TQNT right at year end 2014 (had stock and sold Put options) so I didn't have to go through the merger mess....which, in retrospect, was a good move. I am watching it and just missed buying in before the upgrade took it out of the $60's.
I have some SWKS and NXPI along with Puts various summer puts I sold and which are now 20+% below the current share price so I will let those expire worthless and keep the money. I am still hanging onto the shares...but may sell half my NXPI due to the recent larger gain.
I did buy TSEM (and sold July $12.50 Puts) on weakness a bit before recently earnings and this is now trading over $17...and was named by someone as a top pick (instead of INTC).
I only got a few SIMO before the run-up so only have a smaller position. They corrected a bit this week and I am considering selling the Sept $25's which are bidding $2.45 (net $22.55 for a stock which closed at $26.64). They have at least one more really easy comparison quarter coming.
No position in IDTI which is richly valued P/E wise although it is growing fast and thus has a 0.60 PEG IF the growth estimates are accurate. I would prefer QRVO or SIMO at current valuations.
Overall, I think the market wants to correct and INTC's news on slowdown in PC's may spread so I am leaning toward selling Puts rather than buying in at current prices. I am only watching oil and was surprised that it got near $52 as Cushing was filling up with a CA refinery down for a fire and some OCAW workers on strike. Refiners and even tankers for storage might make sense as oil is headed down again as Cushing is nearly full. But, watch LINE/LNCO as they pay a great dividend when things turn around....which could be 6+ months.
I'll have to look at AAOI, MLNX & SILC
And, read the actual guidance on these two (EMAN & KOPN).
EMAN is projecting $26 to $29 million in 2015 vs. $25.7 in 2014 & $28 million in 2013 means no real volume growth being forecast (display price per unit actually increased in 4Q 2014 due to product mix). They talk about an increase in OELD displays as that is a problem they need to solve......and their need to buy new manufacturing equipment (and those following them know they have had new manufacturing equipment problems with throughput and yields in the past).
KOPN did not really even give a forecast that I saw but the analysts are projecting $30.25 million for 2015....after they reported $27 million for 2014.
These are very small growth rates (10%) from a very small base. Looked at another way, they are both projected for around $3 million increase in revenue whereas HIMX Is projected for the same 10% revenue growth.............but from a base of $840 million so that is an increase of $84 million.
Keep in mind that HIMX is not only profitable, they actually have products which are growing in other growth technology sectors (especially CMOS, display drivers in 4K TV's, TDDI controllers, etc.). And, within the HMD/wearable space, HIMX has complimentary products to their LCOS displays like timing and gesture controllers, CMOS and WLO's.
Did anyone notice the larger increase in HIMX shorts for the second half of February? That is what took the shares down as they were a significant portion of the trading volume in those few trading days. Now, these shorts will all have to cover........and may be doing so now due to the share price increases.
Hey glhsken & jarhead,
I have done well with selling longer term calls..but you do need patience.
At the price you post (" Jan 2017 $12 puts is a good play. Current Price 5.60. Get the 5.60, if put, net price would be $6.40") is correct but price the Jan 2016 as the premium is not much different for the additional year you are holding.
Consider the June 2015 $7's as they are bidding $0.45 (when you sell Puts, look at the bid and not the ask). This would put your net price at $6.55...right before HIMX announces their dividend. I sold some of these and some June $8's that Option Expiration Friday in January when it closed at $7 and these are now profitable.
But, as with selling Puts, I am really hoping the stock price is higher than the sold Put Option Strike Price and expire worthless...as I am more planning to collect the premium money for nothing. But, I only sell Puts on stocks I want to own. I just don't expect HIMX to trade below $8 and certainly not $7 in June 2015.
I have sold longer term Puts on RFMD, TQNT (now both merged and became QRVO), SWKS, NXPI, etc., etc. and have made really good money on these as I am patient with time being more an investor than a trader.
Finally, you should look at option pricing as you really need to consider holding to expiration. Case in point is that I sold Puts on SWKS at $60 for May and it is trading at $92. But, the ask (for me to buy and close my position) is still $0.25 and for that, why not hold it until expiration?
But, go price even the SWKS as the May 2015 $60's are bidding $0.15, the $70's are bidding $0.50 and the $75's are bidding $1.....all on a stock selling for $92 and which would have to correct by nearly 20% in 9 weeks before even the $75's would be Put to you.
Selling Puts is like being a stock price insurance salesperson. There is good money to be made...but stick to stocks you would prefer to own....and if they are put to you, you are better off buying via Puts than at the market today.
I have no position in EMAN but follow the sector as I do own some HIMX.......and am planning to buy more before they pay their dividend.
My comments on reading the earnings report & guidance:
+ Little revenue growth projected ($26 to $29 million in 2015 vs. $25.7 in 2014 & $28 million in 2013) means no real volume growth being forecast
+ EMAN will continue to lose money and needs to invest in new manufacturing equipment
+ Seems to be an issue with lifetime of their displays per "As a result of further R&D efforts, the lifetime of our high brightness OLED XLS technology was improved by about 25 percent". So, while a good thing to extend, lifetime must be an issue that need focus on which would be a concern to some
+ New displays are just being sampled (unproven) and require new manufacturing equipment (costly and unproven as per past manufacturing problems/yields) as per "We recently invested in new direct patterning equipment for this effort"
+ New products/displays are only now sampling or will be in the near future. Companies already finalizing HMD designs will not be considering these new displays until they are proven so EMAN will miss these first equipment rollouts as per "First samples of the SXGA096 product should be available in the first half of 2015"
Now, EMAN does have some positives as they are one of the leaders in OELD but they can't be very positive on their products sales to forecast very little revenue growth in 2015.
You guys can do what you want, but I would recommend the fair minded persons to go to the HIMX website and view their Investor's Presentation. You don't need to invest in HIMX.....but at least see what this company is doing for your own sake and investment here in EMAN and perhaps later in HIMX.
HIMX has a wide array of products which makes them profitable and pays a dividend. They also have complementary products for HMD's including timing & gesture controllers (key in Oculus Rift) & a holographic processing unit.
If you want that price range for HIMX, sell the June 2015 Puts (bullish trade). I picked June as that is a month before the dividend is paid.....and they expire on 6/19 which is just before the dividend is typically announced. See these option Put prices:
+ $7 Puts are bidding $0.55 (net price is $6.45)
+ $8 Puts are bidding $1 (net price is $7)
Now, these may very well expire worthless in which case you get to keep the money (great) but will not get any shares Put to you. I did this on the day the Jan 2015 options expired and the shares closed around $7 and got a better price than this.
And, if you want to sell, price out the Calls as selling covered calls can get you an additional 10% or more on your selling price...........depending upon which month and strike price you select. But, why sell at the market when you can get additional money from selling calls?
Hey glhsken & jebediah,
I think part of the confusion, apart from the ADR issue, is that some sites report insiders with the institutions.
I always thought the Wu's held a bit over 20% but Yahoo shows it as 41.71% which could be the double counting from ADR's.
Bottom line is that institutions appeared to have net selling in 4Q 2014 for various reasons (Jay of Chardan included). Now, I think they are waking up to HIMX via BoA/ML proclamation of HIMX as IC stock of 2015.....but the real design wins and revenue gains will still be later in 2015 so they have time to buy back into HIMX on weakness. Now is the time to be positioning HIMX In your portfolio prior to the 2Q forecast in May and the July dividend. But, don't expect too much too soon as that has always been the problem with the shareholders and the LCoS business.
And, this is exactly why the base business (CMOS, larger panel drivers and now TDDI and other chip integration) is key as it is the bridge to the later LCoS/WLO ramps and margins.
What I really want to hear is a nice revenue increase Q over Q but also year over year on revenue for 2Q 2015 and then 3Q 2015 as hopefully HIMX gets a bit of Apple's business. They should not try too hard as being dependent upon Apple has not always been good..........but selling lots of chips really lowers your fixed costs per chip and thus can help somewhat......but does lower over margins due to Apple's supply chain price demands.
I am with you on oil prices this week perhaps being a "headfake" as it was up strong except for the one down day when higher than anticipated oil and gasoline inventories were announced. I do not get that.........especially with some refineries on strike (which also reduces oil consumption).
You needs to really watch more than the front month of oil futures........especially when investing in tankers as they do well with contango situation. I also wonder at what point the airlines and freight companies (including trucks and railroads) buy their futures and when the oil producer MLP's sell futures.
I'll have to look over some of your mentions.
Be sure to read the SA article on PXLW as I think there is a bit of truth to it as they are in a highly competitive market and had only an average report and weak guidance..........but went up regardless.
Lastly, with the market very near highs, I am considering ETF's on a weakening dollar and perhaps some German export ETF's due to their weak currency but great products. I will soon have quite a bit of cash on the sidelines (when I take profits selling some of my SWKS) and I am fine waiting with cash for the right time......but do want to do my research and be ready.
Seems you are doing significant research on HIMX but you didn't specifically state whether you did the two most important/informative things:
1) See the Feb 2015 Investor's presentation from the HIMX website (link is on the Yahoo HIMX page under Profile link on the left hand side)\
2) Read the 4Q 2014 Conference Call Transcript from this past Thursday on Seeking Alpha. This is much more indepth than the SA article which reported earnings.
When you have reviewed these two, you will have really good insight into HIMX.....so much so that there is not a lot more you can learn. Reading the BoA analyst report is helpful and was posted on this message board (and contains BoA/ML estimates.........but from before the CC so these could change somewhat).
Bottom line is that HIMX has a great 2+ year future but 1Q 2015 will be slow. And, just how fast HIMX will ramp for 2Q 2015 is unknown but will be discussed in May 2015 at the 1Q 2015 CC when HIMX Mgmt gives guidance for 2Q).
Between now and then, we probably won't get much news........even if HIMX wins some Apple TDDI business (via Foxconn who is now a customer who also assembles for other smartphone companies). So, then the share price becomes a question of when people/institutions buy ahead of the 1Q CC in May and position themselves for the July dividend.
Note that selling Puts (bullish trade) can be a lower risk & lower priced way of getting into HIMX although you have to select from among the various option expiration dates and prices. As for me, I sold Puts for June 2015 as they expire just before they announce they July dividend. I sold the $7's for money as I doubt I ever get these and sold some $8's also thinking I will never get these (but get to keep the option premium). But, you could sell the $9's and $10's which could get you shares of HIMX lower than buying at the market on Tuesday.
And, look at the call options as that is the better way to sell HIMX if/when the time comes.
OT to glhsken,
Thanks for the reply on your buys. The reason I asked is that I see HIMX as a hold and then ready for positioning for the next few years......and I need other plays.
I am still in SWKS but ready to lighten up by taking large profits. I also sold Puts on QRVO which ML just recommended so those will expire worthless and I might have to buy the stock or calls. QRVO is the merger of RFMD & TQNT both of which I had but sold at the end of 2014 as I didn't want to go through the hassle of the merger (lucky for me as the stock also declined after the merger). It is undervalued compared to SWKS and AVGO while having a strong filter business and over $100 million in identified post merger cost savings.
I also got into GNW this week which has an interesting story (selling for ~30% of book due to exposure of losses in long term care....but seemingly now has that contained with an otherwise profitable insurance business).
I also sold Puts on TSEM who will come out with earnings on Monday. You might want to watch and see how they are. If the report is promising, I will make a larger investment here.
I do know a bit about GSAT but it seems to be a gamble (but with more upside than downside at this point) and has its haters (the ones who write SA articles saying GSAT will never work). I also read the negative article on PXLW which may have more downside than upside at this point....so I am staying away from both.
Finally, i am looking at oil related stocks but have yet to buy in. I am surprised that the larger oil and gasoline inventories reported this week only caused a single day reversal of this short term oil price uptrend which was surprising to me. LINE/LNCO have a higher dividend and have cut their capex and are on my watch list....but will probably stay there.
Anyway, thanks for the reply and ideas. One year from now, we will probably both wish we had more HIMX.....but it can only be so much of your portfolio. German auto exports?????
As for the base business, read the HIMX conference call transcript on Seeking Alpha and look at the February 2015 Investor's Presentation on the HIMX website. These have so much more than I could post in 30 replies.....along with pictures and plots.
These are very easy to find and very basic research for shareholders and potential shareholders.
Thanks as that is an interesting website.
Jay's recorded history with HIMX is very checkered. He did well in 2013 as a bull but his first sell wasn't until May of 2014 at $7.37.........repeated by many other sells.
So, you can read where his writing at Street Insider is not truthful as per this tipranks site. He is trying to rewrite history in his favor.....and getting it published now gives him a link to give others to read the revisionist history.
And, I have to get back to why all the sells in a row (8 of them) with no upgrades? Was he stuttering........or did he have some other agenda?
Finally, if he follows HIMX, why does he not attend the various Investor's Conferences and he did not participate in the conference call yesterday. He is just out to recreate his reputation.
I don't doubt he might make good recommendations on other stocks.......and even on HIMX when he was a bull and it was going up.
Sorry, it was from Street Insider (Google Chardan Himax and filter for last 24 hours). Here is the article.
Chardan Capital Markets upgraded Himax Technologies (NASDAQ: HIMX) from Sell to Neutral with a price target of $7.00.
Analyst Jay Srivatsa commented, "We had downgraded HIMX a little over a year ago in Jan 2014 from a Buy to Neutral rating when the stock was $14.54 after the company’s stock had posted phenomenal returns of 1386% since our upgrade in Oct 2011. Our premise for the downgrade had been that we did not expect Google (GOOG-NR) Glass to be a meaningful contributor for HIMX in FY:14. We subsequently downgraded to a Sell in May 2014 when we projected its core business of large panel ICs and small panel ICs could experience weak demand and significant volatility in ordering patterns. Our thesis played out as we had expected with Google shutting down its Glass product (version 1) in early 2015 and HIMX posting a 45% decline in its stock price in FY:14. Entering FY:15, we remained bearish as our checks going into its Q4:14 conference call yesterday continued to suggest significant weakness in smartphone demand. However, we now believe that all of the bad news related to Google and volatility in smartphone and TV demand has largely been priced into the stock. We now believe that HIMX is returning to its roots as premier supplier of small and large panel ICs that has also added valuable product diversification through its CMOS image sensor, touch sensor, LCOS Microdisplays, Wafer Level Optics, Automotive display driver IC and ASIC services business."
In all actuality, Jay Srivatsa and Chardan should stop following HIMX and giving recommendations as they have been very wrong before on revenue, share price, etc..........and they did not even attend the Conference Call yesterday. Jay also hasn't attended the past several Investor's conferences so why should he be venturing an opinion on a company he really doesn't follow?
I see Jay's/Chardan's upgraded recommendation and price target as being done for two reasons:
1) To replace their $5 target as it makes him/them look ignorant and ridiculous
2) Gives Jay/Chardan another chance to write their version of history and venture another opinion on HIMX and give a share price target lower than where it is............but no longer so laughingly low
If you read the Briefing piece linked to the HIMX summary page, you will read some revisionist history as per Jay's/Chardan's recommendation. But, this published piece now puts Jay's/Chardan's version of history out there so they can point to it.............and again give a lower than actual share price target.
With all the stocks out there, why does Jay/Chardan supposedly follow a company they see as over-valued? If they want to short it, they should state that. But, why follow a stock that is above their share price. They should be spending their time finding undervalued stocks and following those!!!
Agree with you on Capex investment but keep in mind that HIMX is about more than just LCoS. And, as a mostly 'fabless company', the Capex is really all about LCoS manufacturing since most everything else is made by contract fab plants.
But, I see much promise in the base business as per chip improvements and integration of various chips. That is why Wu talked about "tape-outs" as early as 3Q 2014 CC why Wu increased headcount (most all engineers and support people) and then why Wu is now touting integration of functions as per TDDI. And, it is why he also talked about how it is easier to get sales from companies are other products from existing customers on other products.
So, even as LCoS/WLO brings in more and more revenue as time progresses, the rest of the base business could still bring in nearly a billion per year at 24% margins and investors should not lose sight of this.....as the flashy AR business may never reach this level on its own. LCoS/WLO is the high margin icing on the cake but the base business helps that a lot and pays our dividends.
Thanks for the thoughtful reply. You weren't the only one fooled by the timing of LCoS/WLO as many of us here, many of the analysts and I suspect even HIMX Mgmt were fooled and thought it was coming sooner than we now estimate. And, I suspect this 'fool me once' has many somewhat skeptical on the current estimated timing.
The bottom line is that it is coming and HIMX will be solidly in the middle of this. So, anything that happens to the stock price in the next 5 months is all about the traders and institutions getting positioned for the dividend and then the 200+% move in the share price over the next 3+ years. So, I will not be agonizing much over the daily moves....as the CC and Investor's presentation say it all.
And, there is now more information that AR is where the potential is at as Mattel & Google have now come up with a low cost plastic headset for VR which again will use a smartphone for the display....diminishing the display market for VR. The money will be on the #$%$-through' displays like LCoS but mostly for those companies like HIMX which also have the WLO sensors and HPU's (Holographic Processing Units) as everything has to work together and combining/coordinating all will be key and why leading companies work with HIMX.
But, HIMX is about much more than AR and the base business is broad but does need the small panel displays to come back in 2Q. HIMX foray into AMOELD was smart for both large and small displays.
frankenberry seems to have some 'Missouri' in him as he won't believe until he has a product teardown.....in which case the stock will be much higher. Cane talks about his research but is not well informed and seemingly didn't do the obvious info gathering on HIMX (see CC transcripts & presentations). I was respectful to both taking time to explain what I could.
But, HIMX is a hold for me and all about positioning for 2Q guidance in May, dividend in July and then 3Q guidance in August. What else are buys?
Watch for 'scare tactics' and 'price management' on HIMX over the next few weeks/months. Even today's trading has some large blocks of shares thrown at the bid to take it down.......and then placed at the ask to block price advancement. These are not the actions of a seller who lets the price come to them. It is someone trying to get your shares or someone trying to manage the price for option trading gains.
Look at today's after hours action as the majority of the buying was at $7.8357 (up 7.5 cents)......but then ended ('painted the tape') with 50 shares traded at $7.571 (down 19 cents). Never buy or sell, especially after hours, without a limit order.
Note that the price targets before today's CC (for those who attended as Jay and Chardan were not there) is a low of $8.40 by Credit Suisse........who I suspect will be $12+ for 2016 and then $10 by Topeka and over $12 by BoA/ML. But, make up your own buy/sell decisions.......but just do it with calm knowledge and not from scare tactics. And, if you want to sell, you can get $0.50 by selling the March 20 $8 calls netting you $8.50 for your shares............with the $0.50 protecting you from a downside move from here. The June $8 Calls will get you $0.90 or you can get $0.50 for the $9 calls. I should buy some shares here at $7.76 just to get the $1.00 for the June $8's which is a gain of $1.24 on a $7.76 investment (13% gain over 4 months which is 52% annual return). Perhaps I will do that in my IRA as that is a great gain.......and good downside insurance.
Heck, just read here on this MB for jmelick who I think is a front for them as he only comes here when there is a push to bring the price down. Ignore this person as he adds no value (no data, no information, etc.) and probably gets a dime bonus every time someone posts in his message threads............and why he generally starts new threads rather than reply much to other threads.
That is Facebook who bought Oculus. Nothing is known about the Rift as it is not yet released but HIMX was credited with supplying the timing controller which was instrumental in virtually eliminating the time delay which was causing nauseous reactions on use.
Again, the LCoS is used mostly for Augmented Reality (AR) which combines with the outside world whereas the Oculus Rift we have all read about is for Virtual Reality (VR) which shuts out the outside world. So, supplying the timing controller is key here as the displays could even be your Samsung smartphone (which Google is selling a cardboard holder for......so VR may not be selling displays but using existing smartphones).
There are many hints such as the picture on page 23 and in the conference call (transcript now on SA).
One hint is the WLO's being used with LCoS as they serve as the array camera sensor for objects.....while LCoS is just the display. They talk of these being used in combination.
There is also a mention of Apple's iPhone 6/6+ on the bottom of page 17.....and Foxconn shown as a customer for CMOS & WLO's on page 8 (assembles for Apple & companies). JDI is also shown and they sell to Apple and others. In fact, Wu referred to HIMX selling to companies who sell to the top tier smartphone and tablet manufacturers when asked about top tiers vs. whitebox sale %ages in the CC Q&A.
There were also very many hints on large growth coming from several top companies for LCoS and WLO's in the CC & Q&A's on capacity and Capex. Wu even mentioned that some will pay some upfront costs for specialized equipment. His comments on being the leader is a result of what the top tier customers are telling him.....and actions speak loudly as several are even paying some of the collaborative expenses.
What happens to HIMX stock price over the next few months is really just for traders and those buying in. Anyone holding HIMX now should be thinking about holding into 2016 and really into 2017. I would expect many to establish positions prior to the dividend.......and possibly by this time in May when the 2Q 2015 guidance will be given...and some HMD's very ready if not released. But, HIMX is really about 2016 when frankenberry and cane can read teardowns and buy HIMX 25% to 50% higher.
Anyone honest and with a brain who reads the CC and Feb 2015 Investor's Presentation can tell HIMX will be in various HMD products......while they steeply ramp large panel IC drivers and TDDI sales. We may never hear about Apple but the chances of getting TDDI from them/Foxconn is good.
CS at $8.40, Topeka at $10 or BoA at $12 are all good gains....with a 3%+ dividend. Wait for 2016 targets!!
What HIMX needs is institutional buying to keep the stock in stronger hands. And, everything that has been heard today, along with the BoA/ML report (which seems to have gotten it right on IC's) and the potential for Apple TDDI's lead me to believe we will see the institutions start to buy and get positioned by May 2015's 1Q 2015 conference call. This gets them the dividend which should be $0.27 to $0.30 or so.
I liked the parts about chip integration; especially on TDDI and then how customers are using their WLO's with LCoS. This certainly sets them apart from the smaller companies and jibes with what they said in 3Q 2014 CC when they talked about "tape-outs' which were those chip masks.
Perhaps a year from now, frankenberry can do a tear down and find out he was wrong and then buy HIMX at twice today's price.
Now, I stick with my statement (and the sentiments of many here) that HIMX is a later 2015 and then 2016/2017 story. I am still seeing some 'share price management' going on here and expect that to continue.....but HIMX to trend higher. Now is the time to build your position for the dividend and then the 2H 2015 gains as I would expect good guidance at 2Q 2015 CC when they guide for 3Q 2015 in August.
From the PR: "Himax is extremely excited about technological advances in the latest pure in-cell technology where it is one of the pioneers in offering one-chip solutions integrating driver IC and touch panel controllers, or TDDI. Driven by top-tier TFT-LCD makers, the industry is moving towards pure in-cell panels, which is set to start mass production in the second half of this year. Himax is in partnership with essentially all of the leading panel manufacturers in pure in-cell touch for joint technological development and expect the market to see major launches of this new technology very soon"