But Jay at Chardan does follow HINMX and puts out a lot of (mostly negative) notes on them. So, I suspect Jay and/or Chardan is involved in the stock in some way or manner...........directly or indirectly (helping someone/MM's).
The question is then why........and how. And, considering Chardan's very shady past actions........this just might be why there seems some validity to the 'conspiracy theories'.
Now, HIMX could do a lot to help themselves........but doesn't.
+ They could have responded to the Sansung rumor by saying they had OELD drivers being evaluated........would will be sending them for evaluation. My personal opinion, based upon 3 companies mentioned, is that this rumor came from someone inside the Industry or even inside Samsung and not from HIMX.
+ They could have kept the dividend constant at $0.27/share and used the additional $0.03/share to buyback stock (would have totaled over $5 million and thus bought ~800,000 shares)....and used the remaining authorized $12 million in buyback funds to buyback nearly 6.7 million shares.
- Heck, just mentioning they are investigating a buyback would move the stock snd greatly reduce the shorting and games
+ Could at least give totals of products under evaluation at various customers without giving names. Just mentioning that they have X customers evaluating TDDI's or anything could really help. They could even talk about bids they are involved in.......again without giving names.
+ Etc., etc.
I think there would be fewer games played with HIMX if they paid quarterly dividends than an annual dividend.
I am not complaining as I somewhat understand the games........and it is probably more efficient for HIMX to pay a one time annual dividend.........but the larger the discrete dividend payment, the more games that are played with the share price before and after.
If you look at the history of HIMX, the share price recovers the dividend payment within a month of so........although that is somewhat dependent upon the many other factors influencing the share price (like Dividend Re-investments and the CC around 30 days after the payment date).
Here are a few things to think about concerning your note:
+ Agree with you that at a Nuetral rating, Chardan customers should not have even been in the stock. The question should be expanded to why Chardan even follows the stock as they have been negative for well over a year........and seemingly see no growth into the future. So, why do they not drop coverage in favor of something they could recommend to their customers???
+ Could it be that Chardan is associated (perhaps indirectly so nothing can be linked/proven) with the shorts.....and MM's. The Market Maker connection is valid as yesterday was option expiration on ~250,000 shares which the MM's could not push below $6.50 this week and needed a last minute 'hail mary' tactic......like a Chardan downgrade.
+ As for being associatied with shorts, I also see this as we saw a few shorts starting to cover in the first half of May........and if you read my Short Update message, you see where many shorts were underwater.......and those were not underwater, were giving back gains. And, all the shorts are looking at having to pay a $0.30/sare dividend. So, how does one generate some selling volume? Nothing like a downgrade.
+ As the shares were trending higher this week, someone needed to break this trend to help the shorts. Part of that strategy was to let the shares run up a bit to get those wathcing on the sidelines to buy it and hopefully 'exhaust' much of the buying interest before taking it down (and helping any new shorts make some cash).
+ On Friday, the drop came in the first hour or so of trading.........and then the shares actually held and trended higher into the close. So, I suspect some of the shorts were covering as the shares trended higher.......and the downgrade helped the MM's keep from having to turn over shares to Call Option holders.
But, I keep getting back to the first point of why Chardan is even following HIMX as they need to be following companies they can reccomend.
P/E's are somewhat over-rated. Even if MU will always have a P/E of 8, the share price will rise at the rate of earnings. So, if earnings grow at 10%/year, the share price will have to grow at 10%/year to maintain a static P/E.
Now, P/E expansion means that the share price could grow faster than earnings growth. This is why the concept of PEG is used. Generally, people look at PEG's of ~1.0 as the division of undervalued ( 1.0). But, getting the P/E to equal the growth rate (PEG=1.0) is just a one time thing.
So, my focus is more on finding stocks with high EPS growth rate and not so much focus on the P/E.....just so long as the PEG is not well over 1.0.
Complications to the PEG=1.0 are few but do include dividends and larger amounts of cash on the balance sheet. But, if you find a company with reasonable EPS growth rate, you can expect the share price to grow at this same EPS growth rate.
Intersting that GNW short update came out two days later than the other stocks I follow.
Note that this is an increase of nearly 5.1 million shares from the end of April 2015 which was 3 million higher than the end of March......which was 3 million shares higher than mid-March 2015.
Is there really that much more downside on GNW that people are still shorting GNW? CEO needs to lay out a clear vision and plan when he speaks next week.
Settlement Date Short Interest
Rohit Gupta, President & CEO of the company's U.S. Mortgage Insurance segment, will discuss the company's mortgage insurance business as part of a "Fireside Chat" at the 2015 Keefe Bruyette & Woods Mortgage Insurance Conference in New York City on Tuesday, June 2, 2015 at approximately 2:25 p.m. ET.
Not sure why GNW short interest is not updated at the NASDAQ site although all the others stocks I checked were updated through 15-May 2015. Why would this be?
Here is what is shown at the NASDAQ site for GNW.....but all other stocks I checked had the 5/15/2015 update.
Settlement Date Short Interest
Actually, the $6.50 price level is also important from an Option expiration standpoint. I was suprised at the buying strength today as it moved decisively above the $6.50 price point with options expiring this Friday.
There are 2,454 $6.50 call contacts expiring this Friday totaling 245,400 shares of HIMX.
Looks like 340,000 shares (just under 5% of total shorts) covered in the first half of May 2015. Note that earnings were reported on 5/14/2015 so it is hard to say if they covered before or after the earnings were announced.
HIMX closed today at $6.59 so many of these shorts are underwater.........and those with profits.......have less profits than they did several months ago.
Settlement Date Short Interest
5/15/2015 6,745,190 Price was $6.12
4/30/2015 7,066,283 Price was $6.14
4/15/2015 5,271,293 Price was $6.33
3/31/2015 4,626,057 Price was $6.33
3/13/2015 3,985,929 Price was $7.98
2/27/2015 4,146,282 Price was $7.20
2/13/2015 2,580,136 Price was $8.04
1/30/2015 1,931,203 Price was $8.58
According to the ShortStockVolume site, there were over 521,000 shares shorted on Friday. Due to the higher volume on Friday, this was 26.8% of the total volume reported by this site (1.94 million).
On Thursday, there were 527,738 shares shorted which was 48% of the total shares traded.
On Wednesday, there were 451,343 shares shorted or 24.8% of total shares.
On Tuesday, there were only 140,153 shares shorted which was still 22.5% of the lower total shares traded.
On Monday, shorts were 376,119 or 29.6% of the total shares traded that day.
Again, I don't know where they get this data........but as long as it is consistent, the trends are telling.
You covered a lot of ground there. My comments would be:
+ I sold 180 of the June $7 Puts some time back (around $1) and suspect many others did as this is just before the dividend record date. That might be the driver for the volume there....and selling the Puts were a lower risk to me than buying calls (wich were around $0.50).....although possibly not as lucrative if HIMX had taken off
+ Sept $7's are the right month to take advantage of any good news coming out of the 2Q CC which would have 3Q guidance. As a pure short hedge, it seems expensive ($0.30 dividend, avg $0.35 premium, $0.75 in share price as shares were trading under $6.25) and thus just smarter to cover as this hedge needed another $1.40 downside just to offset these costs. So, why not just cover at $6.25???
+ But, as a bull bet on a short covering rally, it does make sense....but as a hedge, it costs too much and there is not that much downside to cover the hedging costs.
+ These calls also make sense as a bull bet on a bullish 3Q outlook given at the August CC.
+ Look at the Topic on Conference and Product Announcement dates and there is a lot of possible news coming for wearables which could impact HIMX. These are all possible end user comments you mention.
+ One key is going to be who bought/sold these calls. Most likely, any Market Maker involvement would be on the call seller side........but as I mentioned earlier, it does make sense for a HIMX shareholder to be the seller. Again, when HIMX was at $6.25, a Call seller would have gotten the average $0.35 options premium, the $0.30 dividend and a $0.75 share price gain for a total of $1.40 gain on a $6.25 investment over 4 month period which is a 23+% gain and around a 70% annual return..........while also giving you some downside price protection. Heck, I should have done this in my 401k account.
+ So, how HIMX trades matters somewhat depending upon if the MM's were the Call sellers (have a vested interest)
Wrong!!! How about providing a link to your unfounded allegation???
The news being reported is:
Digitimes reports Samsung "has stepped up" its purchases of chips from Himax (NASDAQ:HIMX) and other Taiwanese suppliers. The site adds Himax, traditionally an LCD driver supplier to Samsung, will begin shipping OLED drivers to the company in Q3.
This was discussed at the recent HIMX Conference Call........and Samsung has been listed as a customer on their May 2015 Investor's presentation. What the news today is about is supplying drivers for Samsung's OELD panels. You can read all about this in the CC Transcript on Seeking Alpha.
I never wrote either.....and you can find out HDI LCOS sales in the 1Q 2015 conference call.
If these were EMAN displays.........just how many is EMAN selling.......and how lucrative is this contract?
I have nothing against EMAN, VUZI or KOPN. But I did note that EMAN's recent share price increase had much more to do with them turning a profit than from growing revenues as per their own words (and didn't VUZI have less than $810,000 in 1Q 2015 revenue.......and are looking at increasing competition???):
EMAN: "Revenues for first quarter 2015 were $6.0 million versus $6.3 million for first quarter last year, a decrease of approximately 5%. Product revenues (primarily display sales) totaled $5.1 million, about 18% less than first quarter last year. R&D contract revenues increased significantly to approximately $885,000 from approximately $19,000 same quarter last year. Display average selling price increased and the number of displays shipped decreased from last year. The increase in average selling price is a result of changes in product and customer mix."
Be careful about writing "the shorts.....have been doing great" as there have been over 2.4 million shares of HIMX sold short since April 1st when HIMX was $6.33. And, the existing 4.63 million shares short at that time have given back gains. They are also looking at paying the $0.30 dividend if they don't cover in the next 20 trading days...........and still need to cover at some price.
April 1 was 4.63M short and share price of $6.33 so 640,000 shares shorted and price dropped 23%
April 15 was 5.27M short and share price of $6.33 so 640,000 shares shorted with no price change
April 30 was 7.07 shares short and share price of $6.22 so 1,800,000 shares shorted with 2% price drop
Thanks & good find twludd,
I'll post this on the replies to the last Barrons article on HIMX and ask them to write another article on this........and be sure to include this on any bashing article on HIMX.
Way to look ahead amigolikes,
I agree with your theory and also noticed that R&D has been around $0.50/share over the past 12 months. I don't see HIMX fixed costs increasing much other than running the LCOS Fab Plant which will be easily covered by the product sales. The other product sales would have very few fixed costs and only include consumables so their margins increase a bit also so I easily get your leverage between sales and profits/EPS.
Of course, the big problem with HIMX has been the delays in getting to the LCOS and WLO/Camera Array sales........and now TDDI sales and improved margins on higher resolution CMOS. But, they are going to happen and we have to be getting closer and closer.
Most products are looking like a later 2015 (MIcrosoft HoloLens, Ora-X) and early 2016 (Oculus Rift, Google Glass 2/3). But, what other products will there be.............and what besides LCOS will be in these products (Oculus Rift will not be LCOS but will be a timing controller.....and perhaps others). Some of these may also include Camera Arrays for gesture and proximity.
Then, there are sales of WLO/camera arrays, pico-projectors, TDDI and higher resolution CMOS in other portable products..........and perhaps in laptops/desktops as Microsoft Windows 10 is supposed to include some biometric security via the camera.
The future is so bright.........I gotta wear shades (from band Timbuctu???). But, just how far away is this future?
As committed, below are the various Product Announcement and Specific Industry Conference Dates I and others compiled into this Message Board Topic.
+ End of April 2015: Microsoft's Hololens Build Conference
+ May 25-27: Asia CES in Shanghai where products using HIMX components may be shown
+ May 28-29: Google IO where Glass details or development talks may be held
+ June 2: SID (Society for Information Display) in San Jose (where HIMX announced their Front Lit LCOS in 2014)
+ June 6-9: Techsylvania Hackaton
+ June 8-12: Apple WWDC (HIMX may sometime get their TDDI in an Apple product as they go to force push)
+ June 9: Augmented World Expo where Optinvent is supposed to unveil their new Ora-X Smart Glasses on June 11 in Santa Clara
+ June 11: Oculus Rift special event in San Francisco (probably in coordination with the end of AWE above)
+ June 16-18: E3 Electronic Entertainment Expo at LA Convention Center
+ August 18: Int'l Meeting on Information Display in Korea
+ August 14???? - HIMX 2Q 2015 EPS and Conference call where 3Q 2015 guidance is provided
Looks like the first part of June is really busy. The two product announcements (Optinvent Ora-X and Oculus Rift) will be interesting.............although we will probably only get release dates and maybe specs. The actual teardown will be after release). What will be the impact of these......and Microsoft's HoloLens and Google Glass have on Vizux?
Thanks to all for contributing.
For disclosure, 180 of these June $7 Puts are mine which I sold some time back for around $1. I did this for a lower buy-in point and chose June as it is right before the dividend record date. I was not sure I would get these.......but it is now looking pretty good to have these put to me.
I am just trying to improve my understanding of the option strategies.....as I do use options by:
+ Selling puts in an effort to buy lower
+ Selling calls in an effort to sell higher, get downside protection or just extra income
+ Starting to understand combinations (spreads, etc.)
In this case, the Sept $7's just seemed to expensive (dividend and option premium) as compared to any additional downside they could get in HIMX............so why not just cover?
But, I don't want to think I know it all. I am still trying to understand the short case here.............as there is still shorting going on as per my prior posts.
Thanks for the reply. The discipline is actually easy as you just put aside and invest what you would otherwise pay the LTC premium. On average, you are better self insurring for LTC where a high percertage will collect something..........vs. auto liability where you might not ever need it.......but if you did it would could be hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Again, as I mentioned, self insurring is more efficient as insurance companies have operating costs (labor, advertising, payments, etc.) and make a profit........none of which a self insurred person has to concern themselves with.
Finally, while I have done well in life and saved/invested money, many people who at least paid off their homes have that as a start on their LTC costs as they can sell it as they enter LTC and invest the rest for future LTC payments. Inheritance is a concern but can be somewhat hendled via life insurance (where I also feel it is better to self insure after you are down to only yourself and spouse as dependents).