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Himax Technologies, Inc. Message Board

haschultz1 419 posts  |  Last Activity: May 27, 2016 4:17 PM Member since: Apr 27, 2001
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  • Reply to

    New 52 Week HIghs.......

    by haschultz1 May 24, 2016 7:28 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 May 27, 2016 4:17 PM Flag

    MXL closed Friday after setting another 52 week high for intraday trading and the close.

    As there are many published lists of stocks making 52 week highs, MXL has to be getting noticed. And, anyone who does much research on MXL will notice the good growth and very fair valuations with an attractive PEG (P/E to Growth) less than 1.0.

    I am considering selling some calls at the $22.50 or $25 level for income and because selling calls like this can be better than just selling the shares outright.

    Having written that, I do think MXL can finish the year over $25.......and perhaps finish 2017 at $30 (which is a 20% gain for 2017).

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by players2 May 26, 2016 4:47 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 May 27, 2016 1:48 PM Flag

    I wonder how much of the dividend will go into DRIP's or being used to purchase more stock?

    Assuming:

    + 133 million shares being paid $0.09/share is $11,970,000 of dividends
    + 25% goes to the parent company for their shares and who will not buy any additional shares
    + 25% of the dividends will be used to purchase more shares
    = Amounts to .25 x 133 million shares x $0.09/share / $3.45/share = 867,000 shares or around 1/2 of the typical daily trading volume

    I am unsure if this will 'move the needle' for the share price..........but the ~10%/year dividend just might for those wanting a nice dividend on a stock trading below book value (~$6/share after the latest quarter) and having a chance to double in price.

  • Reply to

    Last yr the divvy was announced 5/11..

    by lss2590 May 27, 2016 10:52 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 May 27, 2016 12:28 PM Flag

    Come on people, learn to fish and locate this easily found information using a unique tool called a search engine!!!! And, this was also discussed on this board.........as I posted a table of declaration dates in the past month.

    So, let me give you two lures to put in your dividend toolbox by stating that this information is available on:

    1) The HIMX website where you can also see their Investor Presentations and other information (and sign up for emailed new releases)

    2) The NASDAQ site also lists historical dividend information including declaration date, amounts, etc. You can find it at nasdaqDOTcom/symbol/himx/dividend-history

    Posting tables on Yahoo's Message Boards are a hassle so I will simple summarize the declaration dates for the lazy who won't use the above lures to learn to fish for themselves. But, if you go to the link above (replace DOT with a dot/period), you will also see the dividend amount, ex-date, payable date, etc.

    Year Declaration Date
    2015 May 11, 2015
    2014 June 24, 2014
    2013 June 17, 2013
    2012 June 11, 2012

    So, glhsken was correct in stating HIMX announced early last year......and that seemed to me to be a case of supporting their stock price as the shorts were in attach mode last May.

  • Reply to

    Technical Question

    by we_are_borg May 9, 2016 6:05 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 May 27, 2016 1:04 AM Flag

    Thanks. I'll be more observant the next time I pass a cell tower.

    Wouldn't there also be two radio transmitters (and signal amplifiers/conditioners) involved; one to transmit to the cell tower with the hardwire lines......and then one to transmit to back to our cell phones? Are these radio transmitters a separate hardware device on the cell towers or are they part of the antennae?

  • Reply to

    Great article on Himax

    by needvswant May 26, 2016 9:53 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 May 26, 2016 11:59 AM Flag

    See also this from Seeking Alpha today on MSFT's VR efforts (not to be confused with their Mixed Reality Hololens):

    Gaming site Kotaku reports Microsoft (MSFT +1.5%) plans to launch "a cheaper, smaller, Xbox One" this year, and will launch a more powerful model in 2017. The cheaper/smaller Xbox is expected to be shown off at the industry's E3 conference (runs from June 14-16).

    The 2017 console, codenamed Scorpio, will have a more powerful GPU, and be capable of handling 4K gaming and directly supporting Facebook's (NASDAQ:FB) Oculus Rift VR headset. Microsoft already has a partnership with Oculus through which streamed Xbox One games can be played on Rift headsets connected to Windows 10 PCs.

    Also reported: 1) Microsoft wants to further its efforts to converge Xbox and Windows, with future hit games released on both platforms. 2) Microsoft is moving towards an "incremental" upgrade model for consoles (much as it's doing for Windows), with frequent hardware upgrades replacing massive upgrades that arrive every several years.

    Sony has been widely reported to be prepping a revamped PlayStation 4 that supports 4K gaming and "enhanced" support for the company's PlayStation VR headset. Both the new console and the PlayStation VR are expected later this year.

    AMD (AMD +0.2%) supplies an APU (integrated CPU/GPU) for both the PS4 and Xbox One, and will presumably get an ASP boost from the sale of more powerful APUs for 4K-capable consoles.

    Update: Also of interest: The Verge reports Microsoft plans to unveil a "Chromecast-like" streaming stick for Xbox digital content at E3. The device will work with Xbox One controllers.

    Jose should be happy with the mentions and prospects of AMD who seems to have reduced their fight for market share with Intel and focusing on niches of GPU's, VR, Gaming, etc.

  • Reply to

    Great article on Himax

    by needvswant May 26, 2016 9:53 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 May 26, 2016 11:54 AM Flag

    Hey needvswant,

    Agree this is a great find and thanks for sharing.

    Gumshoe does have a following (tried but could not find subscription counts)..........and is picking this up from Jim Pearce of Personal Finance.

    "Jim Pearce is the Chief Investment Strategist of Personal Finance, our flagship publication (Investor Daily). He is also the Director of Portfolio Strategy for Investing Daily and is Director of Investing Daily’s Wealth Society. He began his career as a stockbroker in 1983 and over the years has managed client investment portfolios for major banks, brokerage firms and investment advisors. Jim has a BA in Business Management from The College of William & Mary, and a CFP from the College for Financial Planning."

    As for HIMX share price, there is still not enough buying pressure to move the shares although it is under accumulation. If one looks at the recent analyst estimates on Yahoo, HIMX is starting to be fairly valued. Soon, with more EPS releases that are now above prior year's quarters, it will start to move up.

    Note that 2Q 2016 is now estimated at $0.10 on Yahoo and close to HIMX Mgmt guidance. And, this will compare to $0.05 from 2Q 2015. 3Q 2016 looks even better in comparison with estimates for $0.11 vs. $0.01 in 3Q 2015. FY2016 is for $0.41 vs. $0.18 for FY2015.

    While I am uncertain about the dividend (based upon FY2015 of $0.18, it could be $0.15 or so), we could see some dividend reinvestments after the dividend is received in our accounts.......about a month before 2Q 2016 Conference Call.

    Thanks also to pagdyl and normagain for the news and details on Baird.......and note that they did this before HIMX actually presented at their conference.

  • Reply to

    AFTER HOURS UP

    by nipper_12 May 24, 2016 8:15 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 May 24, 2016 11:10 PM Flag

    Hey nipper_12,

    The 400 share trade at $9.50 could be something or not. Most likely, it was some buyer placing a market order and getting taken advantage of by the MM's.

    Let that be a lesson for all of us. And, this can happen on a downward move with some seller getting taken advantage of.

    These larger moves usually take place in the after hours when the market is not so 'liquid' with many fewer bids/asks. Still, I have seen a few penny change during the day if the MM's find a way to pick off your market order. Always use limit orders........and have a reputable broker. AmeriTrade will actually return lots of trades to me below my limit telling me they are not screwing me even when there is a difference between the bid/ask and my limit order.

  • Reply to

    Short Update; mid-May 2016

    by haschultz1 May 24, 2016 5:48 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 May 24, 2016 11:04 PM Flag

    Hey norm,

    Where are you getting your data?

    The below is from Shortstockvolume site with 5/12 being the day of the morning HIMX EPS/CC. Note how the Yahoo daily total volume (similar to NASDAQ volume) is always higher than the short sites indicate. So, what becomes of those uncounted shares? Are there proportional more shorts or????.

    Here is shortstockvolume daily report and not difference in total volumes:

    Date: Short Vol. Total Vol. %Short. Actual Total Vol
    05/16/2016 1,220,671 1,961,252 62.24%. 4,201,800
    05/13/2016 1,128,681 2,120,935 53.22%. 4,542,300
    05/12/2016 3,919,488 7,474,097 52.44%. 15,729,300
    05/11/2016 1,160,147 1,892,671 61.30%. 5,158,200

    Note how just the 3 day short total (5/10 thru 5/13) is over 6.2 million....on lower actual total daily volume......and is much higher than the NASDAQ change in shorts in the whole first half of May which was 1.95 million or less than 50% of the reported shorts for the 13th alone.

    So, if we are to believe the daily short totals........and the NASDAQ twice monthly short report, there must be a lot of 'churn' or turnover in the shorts (by the difference between the total of the daily shorts and the difference between NASDAQ reporting periods). Are there really this much covering and new shorting each half month?

    For today, the comparison is:

    Date: Short Vol. Total Vol. %Short. Actual Total Vol
    05/242016 559,293. 1,589,062 35.20%. 4,732,300

    So, where do you I get your data? Do you understand what it means? I think Jose quotes the Shortstockvolume site.......or some site which uses the same data.

  • Reply to

    Rising rates coming

    by foogie88 May 23, 2016 5:08 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 May 24, 2016 7:43 PM Flag

    Actually the chart of GNW is setting up nicely for a 'Golden Cross' perhaps in July.

  • haschultz1 by haschultz1 May 24, 2016 7:28 PM Flag

    Both the mid-day high at $20.12 and the closing high of $19.98.

    And, we have various catalysts to take us higher including:

    1. Shorts of 3.9 million (as of end of April 2016) are going to have to cover

    2. Revenue & EPS from $21 million MIcrosemi & $80 million Boradcom asset acquisitions being added to Analyst Estimates (which they are not yet and these will both be closed around 1-July 2016 and contribute in 2H 2016 and full benefits of cost savings and sales in 2017......with additional sales from integration with MXL products in 2017 and beyond.

    3. Various investor conferences as mentioned in the Conference Call of:
    = Deutsche Bank 9th Annual Semiconductor Conference on May 19 in San Francisco
    = B. Riley 17th Annual Investment Conference on May 25 in Los Angeles
    = Benchmark Company One-on-One Conference on June 2 in Milwaukee
    = Stifel 2016 Technology, Internet and Media Conference June 7 in San Francisco
    = William Blair's 36th Annual Growth Stock Conference on June 16 in Chicago

    I would recommend all read the Q&A's from the recent Conference Call (available at SEeking Alpha) to fully appreciate these asset purchases and recognize that there is currently no guidance from MXL and no inclusion of these from the Analysts......but we should start to get some guidance and insight at MXL's 2Q 2016 conference call this August.

  • Seems another ~632,000 shares were shorted during the first half of May 2016.

    What are these people thinking? What is their price target on KOPN?

    I like seeing the upward bias of late.......but wonder why the very high volumes are not causing more upward price movement. Who is selling here.......and it would seem to be coming from those selling at a loss as most are in much higher than $2.

    What do y'all make of the increasing shorts (2.1 million more than mid-Jan 2016) and the higher volume trading of late (with no gains today)?

    Date. Short Volume
    5/13/2016 3,748,841
    4/29/2016 3,114,919
    4/15/2016 2,779,545
    3/31/2016 2,411,147
    3/15/2016 2,120,672
    2/29/2016 1,948,024
    2/12/2016 1,872,029
    1/29/2016 1,597,288
    1/15/2016 1,685,344

  • Seems another ~1.95 million shares were shorted during the first half of May 2016.......and this includes (and ends with) the Thursday and Friday of HIMX's CC & earnings release.

    This is also around 8.5 million more shorts in two months (since mid-March 2016).

    Jose: Note how these do not agree with the daily data you post. I think you are getting these from the shortstockvolume website which I also look at and have wondered why these do not agree much. I am not being critical......just pointing out that the daily short volume is never complete (generally missing ~30+% of volume) and don't correlate.

    Today's rally is being talked about as a short covering rally..........so it will be interesting if any HIMX shorts covered today (will find out around 6/10/16).

    Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
    5/13/2016 12,422,571
    4/29/2016 10,471,121
    4/15/2016 8,216,198
    3/31/2016 5,421,896
    3/15/2016. 3,900,424

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 May 20, 2016 5:28 PM Flag

    Hey moretreelessbush,

    Not sure why you got 2 thumbs down.............but thanks for posting the 2016/7 BoA EPS estimates. At 30% dividend payout, it seems we have a 10% return which it would seem would attract many dividend investors as well as value investors..........as much of the remaining 75% or earnings pays out off around $200 million of debt each year. What is not to like about that?

    I picked up some more today and will buy more next week after I figure out if they want to take this down again or not. I suspect we see it rise into the ex-dividend date as the shorts will not want to pay that and others may want to buy it ahead of the dividend.

    I also wonder how much of the dividend paid out is used to buy more shares.........goosing the share price in early June 2016 as the dividend is received in our brokerage accounts.

    Long term, I have to go with the $12 price objective Clarksons Platou has on TNK (as reported on Benzinga and in my note below)........as that is still a less than 12 P/E with an annual $0.40/share dividend.

  • I just read this again last night and Mgmt has said they will be discussing the $21 million Microsemi asset acquisition (which seemingly have closed now) and the $80 million Broadcom asset acquisition which should close around 1-July 2016 after these have both closed.

    But, it does sound like these do have revenue.......and the Broadcom assets come with quite a few employees. They also sound like they will greatly help MXL bring complete solutions to market much quicker than if they had to develop these phases of the technology and they seem to be a really good fit (as MXL already has the modems which Broadcom was lacking.

    I would recommend reading the CC transcript again; especially the Q&A's.

    I suspect we will see a run up in share price going into the 2Q 2016 CC in mid-August.

  • Reply to

    Conference Call Transcript on Seeking. Alpha

    by haschultz1 May 19, 2016 10:26 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 May 20, 2016 12:27 PM Flag

    I suspect the HFT (High Frequency Traders) are trading off the Bank of America downgrade........which is really surprising giving he valuations, bullish conference call and ~10% dividend. So surprising in fact that I think BoA is using the HFT's to knock the price down and perhaps accumulating shares for a later upgrade.

    Read this much lesser known recommendation with a Buy and $12 Price Target reported on Benzinga. I am being here as I am not sure if these HFT's realize the ex-dividend date is coming up fast......and how much the dividend is or how compelling the valuations are. TNK should be over $4 going into the next conference call in August as any company making this kind of free cash flow and growing shareholder equity this fast while paying ~10% dividend are hard to find.

    From the Benzinga posting of the Buy Recommendation and $12 Price Target (Heck I would be fine with $7 or $8):

    Teekay Tankers Ltd. (NYSE: TNK) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.29 compared with estimates for $0.37. Clarksons Platou says the primary driver of the depressed earnings has been attributed to higher vessel operating costs than the firm had expected. Operating costs for the quarter came in at $45.1 million versus Clarksons forecast of $40.5 million.

    Ship rates for Suezmax have been fixed at $33,700/day compared with prior average rates of $32,000/day. Aframax continues to struggle though with day rates at $24,100/day compared with an average of $28,000/day over the quarter.

    Clarksons remains positive on Teekay Tankers, maintaining an Outperform rating and $12 price target. The firms see Teekay managing balanced tanker exposure alongside spot exposure as a potential driver for strong cash flows through the rest of 2016.

  • Just went through the transcript.......and it seems to be bullish. That is why the Analyst from Huber asked about a share buyback program as someone else posted. The answer was around using that cash for deleveraging the balance sheet and how that would also drive shareholder value.

    Mgmt gave an update on rates to date in 2Q 2016 which vishahingde posts below in the topic "Q2 quite good".

    Overall, the call and Q&A's went very well. They seem to be guiding for higher revenue due to better spot prices and more ship revenue days (less off days due to repairs).

    Below is the comment I thought was the best indicator of a very bullish future:

    "Assuming we maintain our current 30% of adjusted net income dividend payout ratio, Teekay Tankers leverage is projected to decrease to between 39% and 44% by the end of 2016, assuming spot Aframax fulfilment rates of between $25,000 and $35,000 per day."

    "Using our cash flows generated to further de-lever our balance sheet remains a top focus as it enhances our net asset value and provides Teekay Tankers with future financial flexibility......."

    Mgmt also reiterated that the minimum quarterly dividend is $0.03 when asked about that.

    I suspect we will see some upgrades in the price target as TNK should do better than $0.29 EPS in 2Q 2016 which means another $0.09 or more for a dividend 11 weeks from now.........while free cash flow continues to allow them to deleverage their balance sheet by another $50 million.

    I will be looking to buy more at this price and even more if there is weakness. I suspect today's weakness was based on HFT (High Frequency Trading) based upon news headlines of an EPS miss........but as I wrote before.......what do you want from a $3.60 share stock which also pays around 10%/year dividend.

  • Reply to

    Good Revenues

    by gjsmith128 May 19, 2016 9:41 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 May 19, 2016 4:35 PM Flag

    Good summary Matt,

    I was very happy to buy shares below $3.55 today and think value and dividend investors will eventually find this and invest also........as much risk is priced in with the shares trading at very low valuations (P/E, price to book is well below 1.0, etc.).

    I think their policy of paying 30% to 50% of earnings is very wise as it ensures a dividend while also paying off debt. I am expecting the payout to be 30% until the shares get closer to $5 and $6 as the current yield at 30% payout wil be around 10%.

    I think the miss was more on the analyst side as they were the ones with the estimates as I didn't see where TNK guided in last quarter's CC although I should go back and read that to be sure. But, if TNK did guide for the higher EPS, they should have come out and warned. The fact they did not tells me it was the analysts who were wrong.

    But, the EPS still gives a lower single digit P/E and a price to book getting close to 0.60. Granted that the asset base is declining........but TNK P/B and P/E seems lower than their competitors.......while having a very reasonably aged fleet.

    Really, what is not to like here? How much more downside can there be. I am fine with collecting a 10% dividend until investors find this and the share price gets back to where it deserves to be. The 10% dividend also says that is the cost of being short on TNK........with the risk of more upside than downside due to the compelling valuations.

    The only negatives I can see are minor but........I don't like the corporate structure as there seems to be some 'sweetheart' deals which are not fully 'arm's length' and I would like to see someone question Mgmt or bring a lawsuit to get more disclosure and stop any future deals.......and with parent company TK owning ~25% of the shares means no buyout.

    Thanks all for their input on this Message Board........but there has to be much, much more upside than downside at these levels.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 May 19, 2016 9:25 AM Flag

    Completely agree. What more do you want from a $3.89 stock?

    I will take $0.29/share EPS and free cash flow low of $0.42 PER QUARTER (heck, this would be great even per year) on a $3.89 stock..........that pays nearly 10%/year in a dividend while you wait for the dunderhead fund managers to figure this out. I'll have to look but shareholder equity had to go up quite a bit this quarter and that counts for a bunch.

    And, who was it that missed..........TNK or the analysts who were forecasting something higher? Wall Street never believed the analysts as if they did, the shares should have been closer to $10/share. Heck, I don't think the analysts even believed their own estimates or they would have been 'pounding the table' for TNK.

    Bottom line, a great quarter for a $3.89 stock that pays nearly 10%/year dividend and sells below book value as they are hugely cash flow positive.

    I will most likely buying a bunch sometime before the ex-dividend date. I will wait however until the conference call just to hear management and the analysts.

  • haschultz1 by haschultz1 May 17, 2016 9:44 PM Flag

    See the large volume trade which occurred just 10 minutes after the close........and occurred $0.034 above the closing price. Probably MM's balancing books after a hard day of taking investor's money as they make a market in GNW.

    After Hours Share Volume
    19:15 $ 3.50 180
    16:28 $ 3.49 Low 4,608
    16:10 $ 3.524 High 265,945
    16:02 $ 3.49 1,500
    16:00 $ 3.49

  • Reply to

    The truth is

    by form1_fan May 17, 2016 10:28 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 May 17, 2016 1:17 PM Flag

    Hey form1_fan,

    You really believe the HIMX trading of the past week was 'normal'?

    Note that HIMX met and exceeded expectations on 1Q 2016 and with 2Q 2016 guidance. You can see from the Yahoo Analyst Estimates page that the Analysts have increased their future estimates on HIMX.

    What was presented last Thursday in the conference call, flat or not, was better than expected as the forward estimates were increased by a nice percentage. So, why the very significant drop.........as things were better than expected?

    Now, look at today. Why the huge change?

    Now, I generally do not go into conspiracy theories but I am also wise enough to know games are played in the stock market all the time...........and HIMX trading of the last week is an example of that.

    Note that I never said that HIMX was not over-priced at $12............as that was just part of this same game.

HIMX
9.435+0.055(+0.59%)May 27 4:00 PMEDT