According to the ShortStockVolume site, there were over 521,000 shares shorted on Friday. Due to the higher volume on Friday, this was 26.8% of the total volume reported by this site (1.94 million).
On Thursday, there were 527,738 shares shorted which was 48% of the total shares traded.
On Wednesday, there were 451,343 shares shorted or 24.8% of total shares.
On Tuesday, there were only 140,153 shares shorted which was still 22.5% of the lower total shares traded.
On Monday, shorts were 376,119 or 29.6% of the total shares traded that day.
Again, I don't know where they get this data........but as long as it is consistent, the trends are telling.
You covered a lot of ground there. My comments would be:
+ I sold 180 of the June $7 Puts some time back (around $1) and suspect many others did as this is just before the dividend record date. That might be the driver for the volume there....and selling the Puts were a lower risk to me than buying calls (wich were around $0.50).....although possibly not as lucrative if HIMX had taken off
+ Sept $7's are the right month to take advantage of any good news coming out of the 2Q CC which would have 3Q guidance. As a pure short hedge, it seems expensive ($0.30 dividend, avg $0.35 premium, $0.75 in share price as shares were trading under $6.25) and thus just smarter to cover as this hedge needed another $1.40 downside just to offset these costs. So, why not just cover at $6.25???
+ But, as a bull bet on a short covering rally, it does make sense....but as a hedge, it costs too much and there is not that much downside to cover the hedging costs.
+ These calls also make sense as a bull bet on a bullish 3Q outlook given at the August CC.
+ Look at the Topic on Conference and Product Announcement dates and there is a lot of possible news coming for wearables which could impact HIMX. These are all possible end user comments you mention.
+ One key is going to be who bought/sold these calls. Most likely, any Market Maker involvement would be on the call seller side........but as I mentioned earlier, it does make sense for a HIMX shareholder to be the seller. Again, when HIMX was at $6.25, a Call seller would have gotten the average $0.35 options premium, the $0.30 dividend and a $0.75 share price gain for a total of $1.40 gain on a $6.25 investment over 4 month period which is a 23+% gain and around a 70% annual return..........while also giving you some downside price protection. Heck, I should have done this in my 401k account.
+ So, how HIMX trades matters somewhat depending upon if the MM's were the Call sellers (have a vested interest)
Wrong!!! How about providing a link to your unfounded allegation???
The news being reported is:
Digitimes reports Samsung "has stepped up" its purchases of chips from Himax (NASDAQ:HIMX) and other Taiwanese suppliers. The site adds Himax, traditionally an LCD driver supplier to Samsung, will begin shipping OLED drivers to the company in Q3.
This was discussed at the recent HIMX Conference Call........and Samsung has been listed as a customer on their May 2015 Investor's presentation. What the news today is about is supplying drivers for Samsung's OELD panels. You can read all about this in the CC Transcript on Seeking Alpha.
I never wrote either.....and you can find out HDI LCOS sales in the 1Q 2015 conference call.
If these were EMAN displays.........just how many is EMAN selling.......and how lucrative is this contract?
I have nothing against EMAN, VUZI or KOPN. But I did note that EMAN's recent share price increase had much more to do with them turning a profit than from growing revenues as per their own words (and didn't VUZI have less than $810,000 in 1Q 2015 revenue.......and are looking at increasing competition???):
EMAN: "Revenues for first quarter 2015 were $6.0 million versus $6.3 million for first quarter last year, a decrease of approximately 5%. Product revenues (primarily display sales) totaled $5.1 million, about 18% less than first quarter last year. R&D contract revenues increased significantly to approximately $885,000 from approximately $19,000 same quarter last year. Display average selling price increased and the number of displays shipped decreased from last year. The increase in average selling price is a result of changes in product and customer mix."
Be careful about writing "the shorts.....have been doing great" as there have been over 2.4 million shares of HIMX sold short since April 1st when HIMX was $6.33. And, the existing 4.63 million shares short at that time have given back gains. They are also looking at paying the $0.30 dividend if they don't cover in the next 20 trading days...........and still need to cover at some price.
April 1 was 4.63M short and share price of $6.33 so 640,000 shares shorted and price dropped 23%
April 15 was 5.27M short and share price of $6.33 so 640,000 shares shorted with no price change
April 30 was 7.07 shares short and share price of $6.22 so 1,800,000 shares shorted with 2% price drop
Thanks & good find twludd,
I'll post this on the replies to the last Barrons article on HIMX and ask them to write another article on this........and be sure to include this on any bashing article on HIMX.
Way to look ahead amigolikes,
I agree with your theory and also noticed that R&D has been around $0.50/share over the past 12 months. I don't see HIMX fixed costs increasing much other than running the LCOS Fab Plant which will be easily covered by the product sales. The other product sales would have very few fixed costs and only include consumables so their margins increase a bit also so I easily get your leverage between sales and profits/EPS.
Of course, the big problem with HIMX has been the delays in getting to the LCOS and WLO/Camera Array sales........and now TDDI sales and improved margins on higher resolution CMOS. But, they are going to happen and we have to be getting closer and closer.
Most products are looking like a later 2015 (MIcrosoft HoloLens, Ora-X) and early 2016 (Oculus Rift, Google Glass 2/3). But, what other products will there be.............and what besides LCOS will be in these products (Oculus Rift will not be LCOS but will be a timing controller.....and perhaps others). Some of these may also include Camera Arrays for gesture and proximity.
Then, there are sales of WLO/camera arrays, pico-projectors, TDDI and higher resolution CMOS in other portable products..........and perhaps in laptops/desktops as Microsoft Windows 10 is supposed to include some biometric security via the camera.
The future is so bright.........I gotta wear shades (from band Timbuctu???). But, just how far away is this future?
As committed, below are the various Product Announcement and Specific Industry Conference Dates I and others compiled into this Message Board Topic.
+ End of April 2015: Microsoft's Hololens Build Conference
+ May 25-27: Asia CES in Shanghai where products using HIMX components may be shown
+ May 28-29: Google IO where Glass details or development talks may be held
+ June 2: SID (Society for Information Display) in San Jose (where HIMX announced their Front Lit LCOS in 2014)
+ June 6-9: Techsylvania Hackaton
+ June 8-12: Apple WWDC (HIMX may sometime get their TDDI in an Apple product as they go to force push)
+ June 9: Augmented World Expo where Optinvent is supposed to unveil their new Ora-X Smart Glasses on June 11 in Santa Clara
+ June 11: Oculus Rift special event in San Francisco (probably in coordination with the end of AWE above)
+ June 16-18: E3 Electronic Entertainment Expo at LA Convention Center
+ August 18: Int'l Meeting on Information Display in Korea
+ August 14???? - HIMX 2Q 2015 EPS and Conference call where 3Q 2015 guidance is provided
Looks like the first part of June is really busy. The two product announcements (Optinvent Ora-X and Oculus Rift) will be interesting.............although we will probably only get release dates and maybe specs. The actual teardown will be after release). What will be the impact of these......and Microsoft's HoloLens and Google Glass have on Vizux?
Thanks to all for contributing.
For disclosure, 180 of these June $7 Puts are mine which I sold some time back for around $1. I did this for a lower buy-in point and chose June as it is right before the dividend record date. I was not sure I would get these.......but it is now looking pretty good to have these put to me.
I am just trying to improve my understanding of the option strategies.....as I do use options by:
+ Selling puts in an effort to buy lower
+ Selling calls in an effort to sell higher, get downside protection or just extra income
+ Starting to understand combinations (spreads, etc.)
In this case, the Sept $7's just seemed to expensive (dividend and option premium) as compared to any additional downside they could get in HIMX............so why not just cover?
But, I don't want to think I know it all. I am still trying to understand the short case here.............as there is still shorting going on as per my prior posts.
Thanks for the reply. The discipline is actually easy as you just put aside and invest what you would otherwise pay the LTC premium. On average, you are better self insurring for LTC where a high percertage will collect something..........vs. auto liability where you might not ever need it.......but if you did it would could be hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Again, as I mentioned, self insurring is more efficient as insurance companies have operating costs (labor, advertising, payments, etc.) and make a profit........none of which a self insurred person has to concern themselves with.
Finally, while I have done well in life and saved/invested money, many people who at least paid off their homes have that as a start on their LTC costs as they can sell it as they enter LTC and invest the rest for future LTC payments. Inheritance is a concern but can be somewhat hendled via life insurance (where I also feel it is better to self insure after you are down to only yourself and spouse as dependents).
Sorry as I got my dates wrong.
The shorts Thursday (5/21) were 527,738 shares or 48% of the total shares traded which they show as 1,090,411 which resulted in HIMX being down $0.10 on the day and $0.10 above the low of the day.
Wednesday shorts were 451,343 or 24.8% of the larger total shares traded of 1,817,937 where HIMX was up $0.27 on the day and closed $0.10 off the high of the day.
Tuesday shorts were only 140,153 or 22.5% of the total shares traded that day of 622,734.
Monday shorts were 376,119 or 29.6% of the total shares traded that day of 1,271,224 and HIMX closed up $0.13 on the day.
The site is shortstockvolume.
Why is there no Barron's article on the May 20, 2015 upgrade of HIMX by Rosenblatt???
Is Barron's in collusion with Chardan and only posting negative articles? I will expect that any future articles on HIMX at least include some mention of the Rosenblatt upgrade or will view that as proof of fraud by Barrons.......and will send notification to the SEC. Barrons can write what they want.......but they should be fair and complete in what they write and not selective and certainly not with a bias!!!!!!!
Jun Zhang, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities notes, "We are upgrading Himax from Neutral to Buy and raising our price target from $7.40 to $9.00, based on 25x our 2016 EPS estimate, as we believe the worst is over for the panel driver business. Expectations have been reset, and now the stock should be trading at higher multiple on expectation of LCOS design wins, potential TDDI ramp as well as the core business recovery in 2nd half of 2015."
With shares having closed yesterday just $0.45 above a 52-week low of $5.70, Rosenblatt Securities has upgraded Himax (NASDAQ:HIMX) to Buy, while declaring "the worst is over" for the company and that there's M&A potential for the company's LCoS microdisplay ops.Himax rallied last week after providing mixed Q1 results, soft Q2 guidance, and upbeat commentary about its LCoS efforts. After backing out $309M in cash, shares trade for 1x 2015E sales.
The shortstockvolume site shows yesterday that shorts were more than double the percentage as the past few days (48% to 22% to 24%). On a total number of shares shorted, it should that Wednesday short volume was nearly the total of Monday and Tuesday.
So, when HIMX took off upwards yesterday and then came off its highs, that was due to much shorting (again 48% of Wednesday's volume was shorts) and why you saw larger blocks being thrown at the bid to take it down........which as I have said many times is not the action of a seller trying to get the best price they can.
Today's data will not be reported until later but I can update it tomorrow.
Disclaimer: I don't know where this data comes from.......but as long as it is consistent in nature, a change in trend is still meaningful.
If you did not read the parent email on this tropic, I suggest you do to see how the shorts are working hard just to keep HIMX's price range bound.........so that means when they cover, it will have a larger impact on price. And, there is reason for the shorts to start covering at some point before the dividend record date in later June or they will have to pay $0.30/share dividend.
I will also update the upcoming conferences and product annoucements later tonight but there are quite a few of these coming........all which should be bullish for HIMX.
Lastly, I am going to post a reply on the May Barron's article asking the author why there is no article about the Rosenblatt upgrade.........and that if she does any slam piece on HIMX, that she balances out her article with the news in the Rosenblatt report.
In essence, your #1 sounds more like a bull case than a short hedge.......which I view as a short who wants to be protected in case their trade went against them. I agree that a short covering rally will move HIMX up and if that is the thought of the person buying those calls, then that is more a bull view than a hedge.
What I mean by a short hedge is that the short could cover now........but feels that paying the dividend and the call option premium is protection which will be paid for by their expected short gains from the present share price where they could cover. I just don't see that happening as HIMX seems to have bottomed out........and next week, we will get an update for shorting through the earnings CC and the day after (Thursday and Friday the 14th & 15th of May).
As for #2, I accept that. If the MM's were the Call Sellers, they have lots of motivation to keep it below $7. But, someone buying in the low $6's, collecting a $0.30 dividend in July, collecting a $0.25 to $0.45 call premium and then selling for $7 in Septermber seems like something an investor would do.
Say HIMX was at $6.20 at the time of the Call buying, that would be $0.30 dividend, average $0.40 call premium and then $0.80 gain on the share price. So, that is $1.50 gain (or $0.70 downward protection) on a $6.20 basis over 4 month period and thus a nearly 70% annual gain on the investment. So, the call sellers could have been share holders.
Interesting message. My parents both have/had LTC. My father collected for a few years before passing on and my mother just started collecting this year. Both had seen the premiums go up almost annually so it seemed to me that the first quote was a sucker quote to get them signed up........and somewhat motivated to then accept the annual premium increases.
But, what I really want to discuss is the concept of insurance. Insurance companies do not print money.....and generally pay all claims out of premiums received and earnings on investing those premiums. So, my intention is to self insure myself and pay my own LTC costs by saving the premiums and investing them to get the same earnings.
It seems to me that the average LTC person is going to pay for all their own costs (in premiums and earnings on those premiums)........and then pay labor costs, advertising costs, other operating costs and then profits, So, as insurance companies do not print money, their business model seems more inefficient than just paying the costs myself.
As a note, I have also never carried auto comp/collision and over the 40 years I have not paid these, By self insurring, I have saved a lot of money..........so if I was at fault and totaled my car, I will still be better off than having paid this all these years. I do carry higher than mandated liability as a large judgement could bankrupt me. But, for costs I can afford, I feel I am better self insurring myself and LTC fits that as insurance companies do not print money and need to take in enough in premiums (and invest them for earnings) to pay all operating costs and my LTC.
Interesting article and perhaps something that LG might show at the upcoming Asia CES in Shanghai. We know that HIMX has OLED drivers and specializes in larger panels. I would also suspect that the TV incorporates gesture controllers (WLO's) which HIMX also excels at.
The thing that caught my eye was the 55" panel which only weighs 4.2 pounds. Now, I am sure that is just the display as my new Samsung UHD has the 'brains' & connections of the TV (other than one HDMI on the screen itself) as a separate package. But, the screen is still much heavier than 4.2 pounds.
I'll summarize the upcoming conferences but the Asia CES is scheduled for next week (May 25-27).
Hey jarhead & glhsken,
The Sept $7 Calls are still around 15,515 contracts for 1,551,500 shares which is around 17% of the total short volume which exceeds 7 million shares.
What gets me is whether the buyer is really a short hedging vs. a bullish investor. Give me your comments on the below:
+ Short heding.....doesn't make complete sense to me as that short could cover now. So, that short would be one who is willing to pay the upcoming $0.30 dividend......and the $0.25 to $0.45/share premium they paid......and then pay $7 for the shares. So, if this was a short hedging, they are paying $0.55 to $0.75 for the right to buy at $7. Why would they do this when they could cover? The only reason would be if they thought HIMX could drop really, really low.....to offset the cost of their hedge.
+ Bullish Long......admittedly they are giving up the dividend by buying in September but this timing allows them to buy shares after the 2Q CC and 3Q guidance. It also allows time for news on HMD products to come out......and Microsoft's HaloLens is supposed to be released around the time of Windows 10 which is currently estiamted for July/August. And, we know from the messages on Conferences, that there are some product announcements coming up.......and as some HMD's are announced, the others have to announce to stay relevant and get buyers to wait on them.
So, I suspect the Sept $7 calls are more associated with HIMX Bull rather than a short hedge as the cost of the short hedge is just too high.
P/E should be related to the growth rate..........and thus why the PEG is useful.
Price to sales is a key statistics and is the share price * shares outstanding divided by the total sales........and usually quoted on a trailing 12 months (TTM).