Sun, Dec 21, 2014, 8:54 AM EST - U.S. Markets closed

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Himax Technologies, Inc. (HIMX) Message Board

haschultz1 140 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 18, 2014 12:39 PM Member since: Apr 27, 2001
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Dec 18, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    Hey normagain2000,

    I am very bullish on HIMX...........although I think the larger gains will come after March or so of 2015 and really in later 2015 and then 2016. So, that is why my HIMX play is by selling $12 Puts for Jan 2016 (net price is probably less than $7 vs. current share price).

    Note that:

    + 4Q 2014 earnings are estimated at $0.09 which will just match 4Q 2013 on a 15% increase in revenue. This will not turn heads.............but forward guidance could as well as news coming out of the Jan 2015 CES

    + 1Q 2015 earnings are estimated at $0.08 which is below the $0.09 from 1Q 2014 on an 11.8% revenue increase which again will not turn heads............but here I expect some good news in guidance on forward revenues

    I will say that I don't see any more larger increases in expenses which are not associated with increases in sales.............like HIMX has now with their hiring for future products.

    The smart are probably starting to build a position and the really smart are playing off of Chardan downgrades and shorts to build a position. But, I just don't see how HIMX will turn heads and get really noticed until mid-2015.

    Again, HIMX has their NDA's and generally doesn't release any news between quarters. Thus, any good news is going to come from:

    + Jan 2015 CES which is more about products than component suppliers

    + Feb 2015 when HIMX announces 4Q 2014 and guides for 1Q 2015

    + Apr 2015 when HIMX announces 1Q 2015 and guides for 2Q 2015

    + Late June/early July 2015 when HIMX announces their 2015 dividend (generally payable mid to late July)

    + Any potential Investor's conference

    + Any potential news from outside sources including Digitimes, Seeking Alpha, etc.

    + Product announcements, product sales announcements and product teardowns for items containing HIMX chips.

    Again, I am bullish HIMX but their big gains are still in the future.

    Finally, note that all errors on HIMX has been in early timing....so why hurry again?

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Dec 18, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    Just checking in from the RF & APPL related stocks I own/sold Puts on (RFMD, SWKS, NXPI, MU) which are doing well as they all beat earnings the past several quarters and guided higher (and beat those also). That is what moves a share price and discourages game playing by traders..especially around earnings time.

    I do own some HIMX from under $5 in July 2014 and sold Jan 2016 $12 Puts (bullish trade). But, my thoughts on HIMX are:

    + No real compelling reason to buy HIMX right here and right now. I think HIMX is a great company but the gains will come in 2H 2015 and 2016 when their new products are in real products which are selling well.

    + HIMX can't talk due to NDA's and uncertainty around customer plans so there is little to drive the share price outside of earnings conference call when they can give forward guidance.

    + If you look at current earnings estimates, there is no growth forecast until perhaps 2Q 2015 which will be announced in early Aug 2015.........and when they will give guidance for 3Q 2015. We MAY get some decent news at the 1Q 2015 CC in early May 2015 when we get 2Q revenue guidance. We may also get some movement after July 2015 dividend is announced but that did not happen in July 2013 or July 2014

    + There was some buying after the Dec 2014 Investor's Conference but that was momentary and only from some of those attending. The wider world looks at the earnings estimates and are not impressed and thus there is little follow-through on buying

    + Revenues are growing at a reasonable pace but expenses are also growing and hurting margins. Granted, they are working on new products but Wall Street is not that patient and will wait to buy closer to (but before and then more after ) earnings growth are announced (either through guidance and then after announcement)

    But, HIMX has some great growth and then profits ahead of them...but the share price could lag until May 2015 or later as Wall Street is a show me place except for a select FEW

  • Reply to

    How low do we go today? I say 4% drop

    by jmeilink6000 Dec 11, 2014 10:00 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Dec 11, 2014 10:15 PM Flag

    Hey amigollikes808,

    Not sure who.why you got two thumbs down but you are perceptive to notice those trades. You can also see that sometimes in the after market trades.

    In fact, if you watch, you can see someone throwing shares at the bid at various times to take HIMX down. Recently (post Credit Suisse conference), we have had some buying interest which negated these......but they were present then also. Today they succeeded as the volume was lower indicating whomever(s) was buying might be done.

    jmelink appearing also says that this is somewhat coordinated and this time it was timed with Jay getting his BS published by Bidness website today.

    But, as a long term investor, this is actually bullish although it does take conviction and patience.

    Heck, even the negative and skeptic jdunef appeared yesterday to ask a 'concerning' question of me.....but then did not answer my reply and question of him.

    The real action will be in the second half of this year and there will be some positioning earlier.......and we saw some of that the past few sessions with volume (but not today).

  • Reply to

    Wearables Go Mass Market in 2015: Forrester

    by sbacchus2003 Dec 10, 2014 1:53 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Dec 10, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    Hey jdunef,

    Tell me what you dispute in the post. The problem has all about timing.........but wearables are coming. And, this is only my opinion.

    Also, please explain the recent strength and volume in HIMX which interestingly comes right at the time of the Credit Suisse Investor's conference.

    Note that my play is Jan 2016 Puts which I sold some time back.

    Finally, what are you doing here? Why do you supposedly hold HIMX shares???? What is your outlook for HIMX?

  • Reply to

    SWKS Update Out; 2H Nov 2014

    by haschultz1 Dec 9, 2014 5:37 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Dec 10, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    Hey Todd0888,

    From your post: "Who are you that Yahoo should do as you instruct? Arrogant much? Typical self-worship behavior of most short sellers."

    What? I am not a short seller. I have SWKS and sold $60 Puts for Feb 2015 (bullish trade). I simply made factual commentary on the updated short volume for 2H Nov 2014 which I thought were bullish as there hadn't been short covering for quite some time.........but there was in 2H Nov 2014.

    And then, I complained that Yahoo would not take a post which had the actual short share numbers by month. How as that wrong?

  • Reply to

    Wearables Go Mass Market in 2015: Forrester

    by sbacchus2003 Dec 10, 2014 1:53 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Dec 10, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    Hey sbacchus,

    I think Forrester is correct about 2015 being the explosion of wearables for various reasons:

    + Smartphone capabilities are peaking so upgrades do not give the reward of change they used to. Wearables will now give more new capabilities per dollar than phone upgrades

    + Wearables do give new capabilities and in the case of glasses (from Google, Lenovo, Optinvent, etc., etc.) have a compelling productivity advantage for corporations, police, etc., etc. which can not be gotten in other manners

    + Google needs more eyeballs for longer for ads..........and thus needs to release Glasses so eyeballs are using the internet for more hours per day............capturing the time they are mobile. Plus, glasses give Google a compelling advantage in the mobile ads market which Facebook is trying to capture with their purchase and use of Oculus. I am just surprised that Google doesn't see this and get more aggressive as the glass hardware is just another way to get to the eye. Google apps can help keep much of this market in the Android market and thus help with ads by use of their Aps and Maps.

    + People still want to be noticed for their tech.....and a new phone doesn't have the 'wow power' it used to have............but wearables will get them more notice than another tattoo or piercing

    And, I think this is a part of the reason behind the strength in HIMX following last week's Credit Suisse conference as people see HIMX's offerings to this trend (LCoS Displays, CMOS cameras, WLO, gesture controllers, small display drivers for watches, etc.). The other big things behind this current strength is the strength of large displays (HDTV's & UHDTV's) and general conservative valuations with 3.5% to 4% dividend.

  • Yahoo has not posted any of my updates which listed the last several months of updates.

    But, a bit over 900,000 shares covered in the last half of Nov 2014 to now total just over 8 million shares. Those covering are are still a bit less than the 1.15 million shorts which were added in the first half of Nov 2014.

    This is still nearly 3.9 million more shares short than the end of May 2014 when the share price was $43.31.

    The NASDAQ site has the details but Yahoo won't post any of my listings of the history.

  • Yahoo has not posted any of my updates which listed the last several months of updates.

    But, a bit over 1.15 million shares covered in the last half of Nov 2014 to now total just over 2.77 million shares. Those covering are just under the number of added shorts in the first half of Nov 2014.

    So, who was covering; Chardan or their customers who no longer believe Jay?

    The NASDAQ site has the details but Yahoo won't post any of my listings of the history.

  • Reply to

    Last December 2013

    by trumpace Dec 5, 2014 1:20 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Dec 6, 2014 6:07 PM Flag

    Hey normagain,

    Yes, I saw that as I was watching Level II (Ameritrade feed) that day as the market closed.

    My point was that I think much has to do with the Credit Suisse conference........but not just associated with the Google Glass patent and Intel news. I think some realized how well valued HIMX is with their dividend and then all the various initiatives/new products they have and then their very impressive customer list.

    And, some probably were impressed with the various companies working on wearables with HIMX and paying most of their respective development costs. HIMX is not just LCoS and HIMX LCoS is not just Google Glass. See this below which was a comment on Seeking Alpha as Credit Suisse was the conference sponsor:

    0719 GMT [Dow Jones] Credit Suisse says Himax Technologies'(HIMX) new display component projects from Samsung (005930.SE), AU Optronics (2409.TW) and LG Display (034220.SE) will support its growth next year. The house says its fourth-quarter sales and gross margins are both tracking better on improving wafer supply and better tablet driver chip demand for its Korean and Chinese panel customers. Himax is also working with several tier-one customers on liquid-crystal-on-silicon displays for wearable devices. It keeps an outperform rating and price target $12.

  • Reply to

    Last December 2013

    by trumpace Dec 5, 2014 1:20 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Dec 6, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    Hey ntcse,

    As HIMX just presented at an investor's conference, I think the run-up is much more than just Google.....and the Google effect might have been on Wednesday when that news came out and HIMX was down Thursday on a decent market day.

    #$%$ I posted yesterday:

    My take on HIMX is that the conference is the really big driver as the timing is 'spot-on'. I agree with jayand777 that the conference participants may have realized just how undervalued HIMX is with all that is known.....and then were much more appraised of the 'unknowns'.

    Among the little knowns may have been the growth in CMOS as the gurufocus article protty12 posted here today.....but I suspect these were the real revelations at the conference:

    + The many sales customers HIMX has with CMOS, the growth trajectory and then the R&D work/products which are in the pipeline as the HIMX customer list makes it very easy to sell these new products

    + Realization of just how 'groundbreaking' these new CMOS & WLO products are....and could include the array cameras which get away from the cost/focus (camera pun intended) on the lens and then the ability to put these in thinner phones (higher resolution generally requires thicker lenses)

    + Talk of WLO & Array Cameras for use with 3-D and perhaps even for dual use as sensors.....as HIMX also has gesture controllers

    + Realization that LCoS sales is much beyond Google at this point as many customers and companies working with HIMX are ready to 'leapfrog' over Google so glasses are coming with or without Google. Also, note the recent emphasis on cameras on police and what better than to have 'smart' cameras with facial/OCR recognition and then also connected cameras which can stream audio/visual in real time. Once again, the corporate use of glasses is compelling vs. the fickle consumer market.

    + There are many markets for these beyond smartphones & wearables like autos, pico projectors (now in Lenovo laptops & soon in smartphones?), etc.

  • Reply to

    What's behind HIMX run up

    by marriagenewsnow Dec 4, 2014 10:21 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Dec 5, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    Just happened to check on HIMX and saw the bull run this week. I have been more focused on my RF plays of TQNT, RFMD, SWKS and NXPI which are up nicely after their good earnings, increased guidance and then AVGO's blowout report Wednesday night.

    My take on HIMX is that the conference is the really big driver as the timing is 'spot-on'. I agree with jayand777 that the conference participants may have realized just how undervalued HIMX is with all that is known........and then were much more appraised of the 'unknowns'.

    Among the little knowns may have been the growth in CMOS as the gurufocus article protty12 posted here today..........but I suspect these were the real revelations at the conference:

    + The many sales customers HIMX has with CMOS, the growth trajectory and then the R&D work/products which are in the pipeline as the HIMX customer list makes it very easy to sell these new products

    + Realization of just how 'groundbreaking' these new CMOS & WLO products are...........and could include the array cameras which get away from the cost/focus (camera pun intended) on the lens and then the ability to put these in thinner phones (higher resolution generally requires thicker lenses)

    + Talk of WLO & Array Cameras for use with 3-D and perhaps even for dual use as sensors.........as HIMX also has gesture controllers.

    + Realization that LCoS sales is much beyond Google at this point as many customers and companies working with HIMX are ready to 'leapfrog' over Google so glasses are coming with or without Google. Also, note the recent emphasis on cameras on police and what better than to have 'smart' cameras with facial/OCR recognition and then also connected cameras which can stream audio/visual in real time. Once again, the corporate use of glasses is compelling vs. the fickle consumer market

    I am really liking my play of selling HIMX $12 Puts for Jan 2016 (got $6/share) as that gives HIMX time and I would be happy with $6/share profits at no cost.

  • Reply to

    The Chardan plan, just my opinion...

    by callseller2003 Nov 14, 2014 11:46 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Nov 14, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    Hey callseller,

    HIMX can do all the R&D they want out of their current cashflow.....and they are doing that.......and we saw that in 3Q 2014 expenses!!!! Read the transcript and you will read where that is the reason that EPS was not higher as expenses are higher.

    HIMX R&D involves primarily headcount and they have said for several quarters that they planned to hire and are. These people are primarily engineers (90% of HIMX employees are engineers) and headcount is salary expense. The other thing that might be considered R&D is the tapeouts they keep referring to as these are the maskings for their new chips being prepared for fabrication (i.e. development).

    Note that the word tapeout was used several times in the conference call so they are preparing several new products.

    Again, these R&D expenses are already being being expensed and are being funded out of revenue and are thus before profit and EPS.

  • haschultz1 by haschultz1 Nov 14, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    Summary: Lots to be bullish about but I just don't see a reason to buy here until perhaps before the dividend in July 2015. Until then, it is going to be a show me from the analysts/investors and HIMX needs time for product development and then design wins/product ramping for their new products.

    My Plans: I also don't see a huge reason to buy or sell here as HIMX has good value at $6.85. But there is no compelling reason to buy now........except for any announcements they may make (hinted about expansion which will be reported separately). But, I prefer to sell the Jan 2016 $12 Put Options (bullish trade)....although I will wait to sell more until HIMX late this year in case there is any December tax loss selling.

    Valuation: At $6.85 and FY now confirmed/guided by management for midpoint around $0.435, that will be a 15.7 trailing P/E while having grown ~20% from the $0.36 in 2013. Expect 2015 estimates to be lowered a bit but perhaps come in around 20% higher than the $0.435 for 2015 and thus average around $0.525/share.

    Outlook: Very good and strong but perhaps not starting until the second half of 2015 but should accelerate nicely as fixed expenses (especially employees) stays flat after increasing in Q4 and then perhaps Q1/2 2015. So again, no real reason to sell here......but perhaps no reason to really buy here either.

    Positives: Lots of them but none that will show up on the earnings until the second half of 2015. As HIMX puts out very few press releases, we will really not hear much from them until the 4Q andd FY 2014 conference call in mid-Feb 2015. We can re-evaluate then. Institutions may start to nibble after the mid-Feb 2015 4Q and FY2014 conference call

    Negatives: Jay/Chardan negativity & players in the stock who have driven this down here. Analysts will be adjusting 4Q down to HIMX guidance & adjusting 2015 down. But, few with any smarts would be shorting this here at these valuations and with the promise HIMX has in the future.

  • haschultz1 haschultz1 Nov 12, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    Hey fsusmatty,

    I agree that HIMX is more than fairly valued. So, the bar is very low about what HIMX needs to report as it is trading on bad news.

    The good thing is that the future is bright for HIMX...........if you have good vision which sees to 2016 and beyond. The sector is strong. They have the right products..........and new products. They have multitudes of strong customers in many regions...........and they have the lower valuations you show.

  • Reply to

    30 minute chart

    by normagain2000 Nov 12, 2014 12:27 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Nov 12, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    Hey glhsken,

    Even today, the shares dropped right at the open............so the 4+ million shares trading today has not taken HIMX any lower than it was right after the open.

    I think the MM's are accumulating and selling to each other to give the appearance of strong selling............but HIMX is still around the price it was in the first ten minutes and over 4 million shares have traded since then with no real drop in price.

    Read my riddle about who is selling..........as it is not the shorts who covered..........and there were a lot of those covering. It is not Jay/Chardan or subscribers as they have had the same negative sentiment for some time..........and thus they would have sold and went short at much higher prices weeks ago.........and we know they probably did not go short due to the larger drop in short count.

    So, who is selling here. Weak hands but mostly MM's to each other and trying to scare themselves some shares.

    Anyway, enough of me speculating. I feel good about HIMX in Jan 2016 and we can discuss actual details tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    HIMX Riddle

    by haschultz1 Nov 12, 2014 10:50 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Nov 12, 2014 1:07 PM Flag

    Great protty12 and thanks for sharing your response.

    I may have to consider attending the 2015 CES in Vegas. I just checked and it is $100 for the events and exhibit passes for the 4 days. They do not sell single day passes so if someone wants a day pass for the 6th or 9th, I may have one I can give you as I will probably only attend on the 7th and 8th.

  • Reply to

    30 minute chart

    by normagain2000 Nov 12, 2014 12:27 PM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Nov 12, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    Hey normagain2000,

    You can also see that HIMX rises on very few shares but takes many time more to drop.

    I think the MM's and others are creating volatility to accumulate shares as they do take it up when there are shares to be had up to a nickle higher and can be seen on the chart.

    If the thoughts of Jay/Chardan were really accepted or common, there would be more shorts and not such a drastic drop.

    The shorts covering so much during the second half of October tells me that they did not want to be short during the earnings report.

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha article

    by toast22342000 Nov 12, 2014 9:27 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Nov 12, 2014 12:16 PM Flag

    Hey jethro_tull_flute,

    Yes, I just read the article and did a quick look at RESN. I recall reading some article some time back wondering if RESN was making promises they could not fill. I don't think RESN delays/failure hurts SWKS much although RESN's success would be really helpful. I vaguely recall further research on RESN several months back (was over $7 and thus still above today's price) and decided not to buy it yet.

    SWKS has nearly everything going for it.............and has under-performed TQNT/RFMD which it would seem they can now correct as they raised the dividend and are buying back shares. I see SWKS as being my longer term hold over the others (actually sold TQNT in Sept but hold RFMD and sold RFMD Jan 2015 Puts).

  • Reply to

    HIMX Riddle

    by haschultz1 Nov 12, 2014 10:50 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Nov 12, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    Hey, we should all be civil here as slander and hate doesn't help anyone.

    What would be even better is to provide facts and then well considered opinions which can then be debated.

    As for HIMX, my play is to give them time and thus I sold the Jan 2016 $12 Puts as that lets everything get sorted out. I have only a few shares left from what is now my dividend play although I really had hoped to be a long term holder when I bought those shares this July.

    Again, who is selling here. I think we are being played but we will see.

    HIMX did pre-announce when Samsung reduced orders and we haven't heard anything thus far. Samsung and the whole smartphone and tablet sector is still growing and selling many items although the manufacturer's margins are being compressed. But, what matters to the suppliers are the counts and they are good as evidenced by some of my other holdings in the smartphone/tablet sector who all beat and guided higher (RFMD, TQNT, SWKS, NXPI, etc.). It was not just one company who did well............it was nearly all of them.

    HIMX is well diversified with customers and are located in a good region to do work with all of the upper, medium and lower tier manufacturers in China, Korea as well as Taiwan and the USA.

    The price is down on HIMX as is the P/E and other metrics. So, just what sort of earnings and guidance are needed to justify the $7.15 share price?

    Finally, with all this selling, the bar of expectation has to be really lowered here so the buy/sell risk/reward has to have swung toward buying..........but we will know tomorrow morning.

    Again, who would be selling now? I don't think the shorts are selling as they should have done that 6 weeks ago. I think the MM's are playing the stock and accumulating as you do see some quick upticks where there is buying and then it gets dropped again.

  • Reply to

    HIMX Riddle

    by haschultz1 Nov 12, 2014 10:50 AM
    haschultz1 haschultz1 Nov 12, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Hey goingupnow1,

    If you Google Chardan Himax and then use search tools to select articles from the past week, you will find this:

    Himax (HIMX) Q3 Results Should be Firm, But Q4 Guidance Could Come in Light - Chardan Capital

    November 10, 2014 11:59 AM EST
    Chardan Capital is moderately positive on Himax Technologies (Nasdaq: HIMX) heading into the company's Q3 report, which is expected out ...

HIMX
8.12+0.37(+4.77%)Dec 19 4:00 PMEST

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.