Seems the shorts covered on ~2,175,xxx shares to the total short count as shown below. This is still a lot of stored buying power. As can be seen, most of the shorts are underwater.
The shorts know that Apple will not confirm anything about sapphire and that GTAT is not able to say much either. So, they can jerk the share price around........and even 'leak' whatever data they want.
As a long term investor here (from $4 in June 2013), I plan to hold until at least June 2014 for long term capital gains taxes.........but probably much, much longer so the day to day/week to week and even month to month doesn't impact me........except for when I may want to add more shares.
Disclosure: Sold June $12.50 covered calls on 2/3rds of my shares........and sold Jan 2015 $12.50 Puts on another larger block of shares. I am hoping it is below $12.50 in June 2014 so I get to keep my shares (and premium) but well over $12.50 in Jan 2015 so I just keep the Put premium.
Date:..................Short Count.......Share Price
Jan 31, 2014.......30,692,xxx.........$10.27
Jan 15, 2015.......32,867,xxx.........$ 9.16
Dec 31, 2013.......32,305,xxx........$ 8.72
Dec 13, 2013.......33,352,xxx........$ 8.02
Nov 29, 2013.......32,293,xxx........$ 9.81
Nov 15, 2013.......33,233,xxx........$10.19
Seems the shorts added ~540,000 shares to the total short count as shown below. That is just more stored buying power. As can be seen, most of the shorts are underwater.
Date:..................Short Count.......Share Price
Jan 31, 2014....... 7,980,036.........$14.64
Jan 15, 2015........7,440,702.........$13.60
Dec 31, 2013.....10,605,354.........$14.71
Dec 13, 2013.....12,546,854.........$10.96
Nov 29, 2013.....11,710,149.........$10.00
Nov 15, 2013.....10,751,884.........$ 9.20
How come when I plot TQNT against SWKS for the past 12 months, it shows TQNT up around 80% and SWKS up only 30%? Shouldn't you be advising the big money and not wasting time here on this Message Board?
Seems you bet on the wrong horse?????? I sold my SWKS a while back and doubled down on TQNT (at $5 in Jan 2013) and have done just well thank you.
Just imagine if Goldman, Starboard or other helps TQNT management turn the company around.......how high would the share price go then??????
Great find mtugrad,
Of course, there are two sides to every trade..........but the buyer(s) paid $0.53/share for over 400,000 share options at $17 in March 2014 so they have to be thinking $18+ on the $200,000+ trade.
The option seller is probably happy getting $17.53 in 6 weeks for shares trading at $14.30 today. That is over a 25% profit in 6 weeks so the option seller is not especially bearish on HIMX.
Great find and always smart to see what the option players are doing with real money.
Why not sell your GTAT as covered calls and get another 10% with decent downside protection?
I never did cover my GTAT June $12.50 so it looks like my shares may get called but that is still a net of $13.80 for shares bought in June 2012 at $4......at long term capital gains taxes. I also have my Jan 2015 sold Puts which should net me around $3.80/share if they are not Put to me or shares below $9.50 if they are Put to me.
It will be interesting how GTAT reacts to earnings and guidance.
Yes I would buy Google Glasses as I want a larger display without a larger phone. I would also want the GPS direction, street view and translation along with the many other Apps.
You obviously have not read this board but corporate will be a big user as they can write off the costs of Google Glasses and then use them to save money (police, fire, mechanics, builders/carpenters, machinsts, etc., etc.).
Then, there is the sharing points of view users which is sports/entertainment and all those who now buy the Go-Pro cameras which are millions per year........as Google Glasses can do what the Go-Pro camera does along with many other features.
Then, there is the consumer market of which I am one.........along with billions other who want the features.
If you don't think these will sell, you should sell the stock and go short.........or just go away.
What is your angle anyway? Trying to save all the shareholders here by convincing them to sell?
Upgrades usually come after facts and discussions with management......which is usually best done after conference calls.
Management is limited to what they can discuss in private so these public conference calls are the place for detailed answers to questions and projections.
The only other times you see upgrades are after competition or customers release data or the analysts do 'channel checks' with customers and suppliers.
Everything is unfolding as it should. The price over the next few days really doesn't matter except some strength shows what people expect (again from customers, suppliers, etc.). But, once we get real data, the price will go where it deserves based on earnings and guidance.
If you read the guidance from 3Q, you will see they forecast higher expenses for 4Q for R&D, taxes, currency valuations, etc., etc. so I think HIMX will be fine.
As some have posted, the currency actually moved to HIMX's benefit.
We also know that there was no Dec slowdown as expected as demand and inventories worked out to prevent this. HIMX customers are reporting good revenue/earnings.
And, HIMX Mgmt also stated they felt they were entering 2014 in better shape with products, design wins, customers, etc. than they were entering 2013.
And, as most of us really think........it will be the look forward which counts which includes when LCOS ramp up starts. As we know the job fair was around a month ago, I think that news will be bullish also.
Facial recognition will also work with your contacts list........if you have a good photo of the person (or take one with your Glasses). Just think, no more not being able to recall names of acquaintances.
Those who doubt Google Glasses just lack imagination.
Police can also just look at the license plate and license from the person and the Glass's App will do the background search. The Glasses will be better focused where they need to be (vs. dash mounted camera now) and record audio.
These would seem to be a 'slam dunk' for Police..........for safety and liability reasons.
I had a friend of mine attend and they said the same things..........
- Well attended with lines
- Those manning the exhibits could not answer questions about sales price, date, where, etc.
- Impressed with the Glasses
Some of these 11 days are for firms to report.......so not all the blame lies with the SEC.
Go to the Shortanalytics website as they have some method to determine the short percentage of overall trades every day. I personally don't know how they do this.........but any consistent method is valid for looking at trends and changes in trends.
I was in Phoenix on Wednesday and rode my motorcycle around the Mesa Plant (posted observations in titled message on Thursday).
If possible, drive by the plants;
- After 6 PM to see if they are working evenings
- On Saturday to see if they are working weekends
- On Sundays to see if they are working 7 days per week
- On Saturday/Sunday evenings after 6 PM to see if this is 24/7 operation
There would be two things to look for:
1) Contractor vehicles which should be the many white pick-ups I say (Robinson Electric??)
2) Non-commercial vehicles (private vehicles) in the southwest parking lot as these could be line workers indicating if they are operating part of the plant. I saw many cars here on Wednesday thinking they could be employees being trained but perhaps they are operating the first Phase of furnaces.
I did see lots of large conductor electrical cable and even concrete trucks washing out so they are still pouring some foundations and wiring for more furnaces. But, some cars on evenings/weekends would indicate if they are operating some furnaces...........and if construction is 24/7.
I could be back in Phoenix (44th & Greenway so 30 miles from Mesa) in a week and would have time to do more surveillance then.
Yeah, trading in a 401k is the way to go as everything will be taxed as ordinary income when withdrawn.........unless you convert to an Roth IRA when there are no forward taxes at all. When I retire and have little income (or need for it for several years due to living off savings), I will try to convert my 401k to a Roth or at least some of them........and then try a bit of trading.
I actually was holding GTAT from $4 and was concerned about the Apple deal when announced in Nov 2013 due to drastic change in business plan..........and Apple is tough on suppliers. So, not wanting to pay short term capital gains, I sold June 2014 covered calls at $12.50 and got $1.30 for them. These are now around $0.75 so I still don't see GTAT at $13.25 break-even so will not cover the covered calls and let them ride. But, to hedge, I sold Jan 2015 $$10 Puts which will probably not get put to me. So, I could be out of GTAT but willl have made much money on them. I do see some ugly earnings which is expected by the long term and institutional holders..........but perhaps not by the new buyers who might wait to time GTAT and by the shorts who may whipsaw these.
So, I see a good chance of GTAT still being below $12.50 call price in June 20th or whatever as they will only report 4Q 2013 and 1Q 2014 before June.
IMOS is a fair stock but revenues are shrinking and I see little capex spending so am concerned about future growth. My sold Pus are $17.50 so they should expire worthless and I keep the premium. But, longer term, there will be more competition on bumping/testing/packaging as Intel is on record as saying doing this inhouse helps their margins (and quicker as less handling/shipping). MU has said the same so they may also start to do more in-house. Then, there are Korean companies who are competing on price so those are all reasons IMOS is valued as it is as. There may be some money to be made but the big were below $19.
I thought you already had shares in GTAT?? Were they trading shares you sold? I have my shares from June at $4 and then some Jan 2015 Puts I sold at $10 so am well positioned.
If caffeine reviewed GTAT share price and move today.........and their earnings.............he would literally need to wrap his head in duct tape so it wouldn't make a mess when it explodes as GTAT is the anti-value stock of all times.............as even the Apple deal doesn't guarantee margins and Apple can be a tough company to sell to (like the Wal-Mart of high tech). There are all sorts of stocks and stories out there and one needs to adapt to each. HIMX was a great value play under $6..........and morphed into a growth stock which is fine as they are growing as per CANSLIM principles.
I am a longer term investor (primarily due to my tax bracket). Until I retire, my company 401k is fixed with Fidelity and I am not able to trade shares.......of stock and bond funds. So, I hold HIMX, GTAT and TQNT with some IMOS and MU Puts which will cost me taxes.
I agree that bad earnings in Q4 are baked in and meaningless and that guidance is key.
But, having written that, I don't feel we will get that much guidance or discussion on Mesa. Think of the data you would need as an analyst (start, ramp rate, inventory sales, sales price, margins, etc.,etc.) and there is no way we get much of any of this.
Some is unknown, some Apple won't want released, etc. So, this will go forward still on faith and all ranges of projections.
What we might get is some comments on the rest of the businesses.
Why are you not over at GTAT watching that baby run??? Great reversal on news (9to5 Mac) following some consolidation. I rode my motorcycle around the GTAT Apple Plant in Mesa on Wednesday before coming back to CA last night.
HIMX 4Q 2013 EPS Comments:
Did anyone notice that one or more of the analysts increased their 4Q estimates so the average now is $0.10 with a high of $0.14 EPS ($0.08 is the low). While I think many are looking ahead, I expect the 4Q to be strong and it would be an indicator of the strength of the base business (Mgmt said they were well positioned going into 4Q with customer and design wins). There did not seem to be the typical 4Q inventory correction with their customers and thus I would think $0.10 is very doable.
Note that management did state there would be some higher expenses associated with pursuing business opportunities.
HIMX 11Q 2014 Outlook:
I expect some comments on LCOS outlook along with the typical base business outlook. I don't expect them to 'name names' but simply to state that their anticipated manufacturing rate as it will be material to earnings. We know they did some hiring for production line and QA/QC workers so I would think they get 4 to 6 weeks of LCOS ramping in 1Q and then the full 3 months in 2Q. The only unknown is the run rate which could be between 200,000 to 2 million/month.
I have to go with the majority of the analysts who met with Mgmt in Scottsdale and Vegas with their $0.65 EPS in 2014 which is ~75% growth over 2013 and thus can support a P/E of 35 to 40 and a 2014 year end share price of $20 to $25 which is fine with me (although it could go higher if 4Q 2014 is at the 2015 run rate which projects around $1.15 as some expect).
But, I only expect comments on 1Q 2014 and hope they are around expectation (average is $0.10 with a range of $0.07 to $0.12 vs. $0.08 in 1Q 2013).
In summary, I am expecting a slight beat of HIMX Mgmt of $0.09 EPS and guidance of $0.10 to $0.11.
Up $0.45 on 120,000 shares. Will this make the RSI go too high???
Good post but I'll go you one better:
Not only is HIMX much more than Google Glass (have great performing businesses and products outside of LCOS as shown in their investor's presentations) but LCOS is more than Google Glass as there are other Glass manufacturers, Gaming Goggles and camera arrays.
And, Google Glass is more than just a consumer product but it has uses to save time/labor/money in businesses and police work...........and then in sharing points of view.
I am also wondering if the new sapphire screen will allow handwriting/drawing inputs also......especially on iPads. You could use any device.......including a nail to write/draw with.
I think some note takers and artists would appreciate this capacity.
Went by the First Solar/Apple/GT Technology Mesa Arizona site yesterday (3:30 to 4:30) with these observations:
- Huge ongoing effort and well organized with delivery, unloading, storage & staging areas
- Lots of contractor vehicles along with outdoor cranes for unloading and even cement trucks washing out after unloading
- Seemed like several hundred privately owned vehicles parked in the Southeast parking lot......well separated from the contractor trucks, etc. As all entrances were 'controlled', I suspect these are not for interviews but perhaps job training, etc. for those already hired???? as there seemed way too many for just construction workers and mostly passenger vehicles.
- Saw several trucks delivering construction supplies (large electrical cable spools, etc.) but nothing in wooden crates which might be furnaces. There were some larger than truck sized building doors open so perhaps these are taken inside immediately??
- Lots of large conductor electrical cable spools and pipe conduit in the north parking lot indicating a fair amount of work yet to be done although I would expect things to start in stages
- Several cement trucks washing out after unloading indicating active foundation work ongoing......which would be before mounting furnaces........but again could be staged with some already mounted/connected and them working on Phase 2 or 3 furnaces????
- Again, lots of contractor trucks (Robinson Electric) seemed to be the readily visible ones
- Solar arrays on the Southeast corner probably a few hundred feet by a few hundred feet (probably nowhere enough to operate on but could 'make a dent' in the power bill
- Signs I saw said 'First Solar' so no signage changes
- Could only drive in where deliveries were received and then only so far until I was told no further. Could not get any information from this guy was not talkative.
- Did not see any workers leaving even at 4:30 PM so hopefully they are working longer hours (could not stay longer)