I don't mean to be a 'broken record' but I just can't envision what a watch can do that Google is not doing with their Google Glasses. And, the teardown on the Glasses is ~$200 with $15 for assembly and packaging.
Add in that that Google has released 2 generations and are working on #3........and there are more a more compelling Apps every day and I have to favor the Glasses over the iWatch which may be near $200 while Glasses can be well under $500.
But I am not a teenager who needs to see emails and text messages when they come in.
If you are going to pull your iPhone out to reply, why not pull it out to read? If you are going to talk to the watch, talk to the Glasses and get a real display..........along with all the things that Glasses bring (GPS & Streetview locator, text translator and text recognition, ever increasing Apps and then something that has been tested with real people now for over a year.
The iWatch will sell but I see much more promise in a Glass from Google (and now announced an agreement with Samsung) or Apple.
But, Apple is behind in both Glasses and Watches so they need to blow our minds with their release or????????
I like GTAT and am glad I don't own Apple as Apple is so big, they need a product to do billions in sales or it is near rounding error for them.
Thanks for sharing the very advanced technical read. I am more a fundamental investor and only use charts for buy/sell points along with 50 and 200 DMA's.
Kudos again as I have to think we could be below $9 without your articles as the NASDAQ has been weak to be generous. The BlackRock add is great news but I prefer to credit you (and only you the past few days).
As for timing of iWatch......is it wise to release the iWatch and iPhone 6 at the same time as I would think it would sell better if released 3 months before/after the iPhone so the fanboys/girls can afford to buy both? I would think the iWatch should be closer to release.........and if not, shame on Apple!!!! The sapphire for this could be manufactured in Salem.
Do you think Apple is working on an iGlass (got to love that name) as I see Glasses as more appealing to many as what is so compelling with a watch as compared to Glasses and Apps like Google is developing (and working on 3rd generation after releasing 2nd generation). Google has a huge lead but Apple can't lose this category for their sake (as Google could make a Glass for iOS). Google has GPS, Streetview, language interpreters, text recognition, etc., etc. (and I am long HIMX along with GTAT) which makes Glasses more compelling to me than anything a watch could do (unless it works with Glasses to be my smartphone).
Hey franksinatra & all,
In my opinion, HIMX will meet the high end of earnings.......if not beat. But, as we saw from many companies, it will all be about forward guidance. For that, I can only say we had 4 analysts who met with Management in Dec/Jan who are bullish......and we know that HIMX added production line workers for LCoS.
As such, I am going to go with their insight and recommendation.
But, if you have doubts, sell some covered calls as that gives you some downside protection without needing to sell today as you can get upside with covered calls. Myself and Khalid sold Jan 2015 $20 calls on 31-Dec for $2.85 to $2.95. I think they are still selling for over $2.20. That is 15% downside protection. While you give up some upside, you will be receiving $2.20 now and then $20 in Jan 2015 for a 50% total return.
I have 1/3 of my shares hedged with these Jan 2015 $20 calls.......and as they are Jan 2015, I will get the July dividend on all my shares.
Lord, give me the courage to change the things I can
The serenity to accept the things I can't change
And the wisdom to know the difference.
All we can do at this point is use the data out there. The 4 analysts we know met with HIMX all came away very positive. I don't know if Chardan met with them but would be surprised if they did.......as how could they have come out with a polar opposite take?
So, we wait to 13-Feb when we get information from the company itself. Until then, it is a trader's play and those plying FUD.
HIMX meets nearly all of the CANSLIM investment principles.........especially new products, growth and good management.
Iif you would read closer, I did not disparage Chardan....but I did state the case that they were probably more wrong than the 5 Analysts we know who had meetingw with Himax Mgmt.
But, I now recommend that you sell as you have way too many concerns about HIMX and I would prefer you sleep betterr at night.
But, how I am do really ddetermine why it dropped on the Chardan dwongrade? I don't have the short data for yesterday but I can tell you that it only retraced the previous day's gains.....nearly to the penny.
I am a long term investors and just say trust management who have 31% ownership and never sell. Think of the prrincipals of CANSLIM as HIMX has good earnings (23% gowth in 2013 on 5% revenue grwoth) and are projected to go near a billion in sales in 2014 (high end of $1.1 billion) and grow EPS by 75+%.
They have new products.plural as the CMOS and LCoS camera areas will be huge.
But, go bck and read my note and work on comprehension. But, share holders need to just wait for earnings and guuidance. Those who hae it tought are those looking to buy. Those who bought as far back as you hae posted here are a simple hold. Or, just sell and sleep better.or sell covered calls.
Yes we care about features for iWatch as that helps determine sales and thus sales of sapphire from GTAT.
But, even more than features is the timing as that greatly impacts when GTAT starts to see revenue from Apple. I still contend we will have ugly 4Q 2013 and 1Q 2014 revenue and earnings from GTAT and these will test most investor's patience. We know iPhone 6 may not be until 3Q 2014 due to the many changes (sapphire, larger screen, hopefully more features, etc., etc.) and that 3Q 2014 is a year after the last iPhone update.
Even the investors who are aware and stick it out with GTAT through 4Q and 1Q, the shorts will play this as those watching GTAT will not have a compelling reason to buy at these times. As much as we all know not to 'time a stock', we still all try to 'time a stock'.
And, perhaps the biggest timers are the big money funds/institutions. Market macos also seem to favor waiting as earnings are just okay and outlooks have been less than okay on most stocks........and then we have Fed tapering to worry about which also means higher interest rates which siphons money from stocks.
I think many see the potential for GTAT in 2015 and beyond. They key is when the positive move starts to show in guidance and on the cash flow statements. These will come from bullish Mgmt outlooks a quarter ahead............and then those who front run the outlook.....at some risk of being wrong/early.
But, without revenue and earnings, good authors like you need to keep GTAT upfront in people's minds..........but who will convince the non-owners that they need to buy at $10 when GTAT has lower revenue and higher losses year over year????
Again, many thanks for your posts and articles as they have been great in supporting GTAT share price. Were you this eager to write term papers in school :-))
Google is doing the right thing and putting these out for developer and working out the kinks with their Explorers. They are now on Generation 2 and those released to the public will be Generation 3 or 4.
As for pricing, many businesses will have no problem paying $500+/pair as they see compelling cost savings via ready references (machinists, builders, carpenters, etc.) or via internet connectivity or entertainment.
Just look at all the Go Pro cameras sold and Google Glasses does that with so much more..............and the Apps are being added by the day.
The consumer/casual user will be the last large adopter but business adaption will be huge.
I may or may not buy a pair initially but the last worry on my mind is someone calling me a 'Glasshole' as if a name would bother me..............or the millions of others wearing these. And, anyone worried about their loss of privacy are a decade late as just look at the cell phone videos on YouTube.
So, if you believe your post, why not state you are short...........or if you have no position, there seems to be nothing for you so you can move along.
The key is that Google Glasses are still being developed. If you look in the streets, you will not see any Model A's/T's as autos have also been improved.
HIMX has the lead in displays, touch controllers and are strong in power management. Watch Google perhaps put solar chargers on these or otherwise improve quick charging. But, what you cite will be improved.
AND HIMX IS MORE THAN GOOGLE GLASSES as they will do over $750 million in revenues without LCoS and will do around $0.37 in 2013 without LCoS.............and pays an annual dividend.
So, let us know where you went short............or tell us where you are investing so we can follow your lead to a stock that has more future promise.
Actually, the Chardan analyst was Jay Srivatsa and I think he did an okay job with channel checks on customers and competitors. But, I think his overall analysis was wrong for reasons I posted earlier on this message board under 'My Take on Chardan'.
But, rather than trash Chardan's reputation (deservedly or not), we should really deal with the actual analysis and then the overall analysts recommendation 'score' (at least 5-1 Buy recommendation) with only Chardan being skeptical.
- Bank of America was impressed from Jan 2014 Vegas conferfence and raised target to $17.50
- Topeka was impressed after Scottsdale conference in Dec and has target of $16
- Northland was impressed after Scottsdale, invited HIMX to New York for discussions and make HIMX Stock of the Year for 2014
- Craig Hallum was impressed after Scottsdale and is expecting a beat in 4Q 2014
- Cramer/TheStreet are bullish AND it was analyzed by TheSteet Analyst and not Cramer who is just their mouthpiece
Again, see My Take on Chardan and Stock Price for where I think Chardan got it wrong and the other analysts got it right.
But, we are all better served dealing with specifics as if we are wrong, the sooner we know this, the better.
My overall thesis are:
- Wearable technology is coming and will be huge be it Glasses, watches, etc.
- In wearable technology, displays are key as are touch controllers.....both HIMX strong suits
- Smartphones are still growing but perhaps more on the lower priced manufacturers of whom HIMX is well positioned (Huawei, ZTE, Coolpad, Levano, etc.)
- HIMX is in the middle of the technology improvement products with LCoS displays, improved CMOS for price and upcoming LCoS camera arrays (2H 2014 & beyond)
Good post and thoughts.
Google is not just throwing some new, untested product out to the masses. They have gone through 2 generations (after many prior prototypes) and are ensuring there are good Apps to go with it. They also have the bill of part down to $200 so a lower selling price of $500 is very possible.
You are also wise to point out that there are many other uses for LCoS than Google Glass and that includes other Glasses and Head Mounted Displays. There is also the automotive Heads Up Displays and then the camera LCoS arrays Wu spoke about in the 3Q 2013 conference calls.
Those who doubt Google Glasses lack imagination. They are not for everybody but there are some compelling reasons to own/use them and that includes productivity (builders, machinists, police, sports training, news reporting, all Go-Pro camera uses, etc., etc.)..
Sure will be good to hear from management to dispel rumors with facts.......and this is why I tend to believe the analysts like Northland, Topeka and Bank of America who had 'one on one' meetings with Management.
First, I think the Chardan article was at least fair in stating their reasons and doing customer checks. Where I differ is that first quarters are similar to this in that they are the Chinese New Year and always their slowest so they should have stated how this1Q differs from years past.
Second is that they completely discounted Google Glass, Microsoft, Sony, etc. which is wrong as several million LCoS Displays will be manufactured even if they are a bust which I don't think they will be. So, HIMX will have many LCoS sales regardless.
Third, when they discount Google Glass, they assume there is only one market segment where there is at least a consumer market and the professional market (builders, architects, doctors, pollice, sports training, etc.) and even perhaps a entertainment market (news, sports, Twitter like, etc.).
Chardan is also polar opposite of the analysts who talked with the company at the Dec 2013 Scottsdale conference and the Jan 2014 Vegas conference. I have to go with Northland, Topeka and Bank of America (Merrill Lynch) who upgraded HIMX after 'one on one' meetings.
You can also listen to management who said they were better positioned going into 2014 on the base business than they were going into 2013 on terms of design wins, product improvements and such (as stated in 3Q 2013 conference call in mid-Nov 2013). Note that HIMX has also made good headway with design wins in CMOS arrays along with displays so they are increasing their market share.
But, we will get a company update on 7-Feb 2014 at the 4Q 2013 conferfence call. While they may not talk customers, I do think they will talk about LCoS revenue and it would be fine for them to talk about this in general. We know they hired for the plant expansion and thus they are ramping up production and hopefully will get 2 full months in the first quarter.
So, just figure the stock price will be volatile until the 4Q conference call and 1Q 2014 outlook. That is just the way it will be.
No doubt giving APPL top billing is good for readership and even for GTAT.
At some point, fill out the missing pieces of GTAT and discuss SiC, PV, etc. as they are icing on the sapphire cake.
Thanks again for getting GTAT mentioned as a top gainer yesterday.
These updates come after the Scottsdale and Vegas Investor's Conferences where analyts could have "one on one' meetings with the company.
HIMX managment has a good reputation and part of that is meeting guidance and HIMX has always met the high end of their guidance. They also kept big news like Google under wraps as they also honor their Non-Disclosure Agreements.
This all works to management's favor. They may not beat but at least management can forecast and deliver. The beats and such are only short term and long term the company will trade on fundementals as it should.
I attribute this move to the Seeking Alpha and Motley Fool articles put out this weekend and then follow through on the Bank of America price upgrade.
Then, there was the price pullback and the Cramer and Street positive comments. There are lots of reasons.........including more short covering.
Just as with Samsung, nonshareholders should focus first on sales counts and then revenue and let the company and shareholders worry about profits.
Apple met on revenues and iPhone counts although they may have sandbagged for the next quarter.
You are right in that the short action for the first half of Jan 2014 are out and over 3.1 million shorts covered. This is around 5.1 shorts covering since mid-Dec 2013 when the share price was $10.96 so that short covering was good for the share price.
Revenue and average EPS estimates are up again on HIMX.
- 60 days ago the 2014 ESP estimates were $0.6/share
- 30 days ago they were $0.62/share
- 7 days ago they were $0.64/share
- Current estimate is $0.65 EPS/share
I also noticed that the high end of revenue was increased to $1.1 billion (from $1.08). This is a 30% increase over 2013.........and includes much higher margin products.
See this on the HIMX Yahoo page under Analyst Estimates.
What we need is for sapphire and solar chargers to come up in the Apple's conference call Q&A. Then, we will know Mungee has arrived in the big leagues..........after just a day in print.
Leading with Apple rather than GTAT (or at least tagging with Apple) makes a huge difference!!!!