For Google and their Glasses, it really is all about the advertising money as Google's latest quarter showed declining per ad revenue but a saving increase in total ads viewed. As such, Google will want to use Glasses to increase mobil ads (target for where you are and what you are looking at). This will be huge and the reason Google doesn't need to make money on the Glasses..........as long as they can increase the ads viewed.
I am with you in that HIMX is up 40% since start of November and needs to consolidate for the next leg up.
And, with earnings due on 13-Feb, what happens in the next week don't mean anything as it will be what gets announced with earnings and guidance which will determine the price future. What happens this next week can easily be corrected with solid earnings and guidance.
The keys on other Glasses/Goggles will still be Apps and testing. Google is on their second generation so the consumer will get the benefits of these first two generations of learnings. There is also an ever increasing number of compelling Apps for them.
Microsoft could make theirs for gaming but will need games written for head movement......and will be first generation with less trials. Samsung has a partnership with Google so could support Google Apps which solves that but would still be on first generation design.
As such, Google has a huge lead over the others.........with a tear down bill of goods around $200 as done this past August.
So, if Google prices these competitively, it will be hard to beat them.
And, how many budding musicians would enjoy seeing the concert from the point of view of an orchestra member?
Literally, using Google Glasses to give new and unique 'points of view' will also be a larger use of Google Glasses. That is performers (music, stage, sports, adventurers, etc.) and even news casters will be huge. Just under the adventurer class, think hikers, kayakers, skydivers, divers, zip liners, rock climbers, golf caddy, referees, etc., etc. sharing their point of view......and sound via Google Glass...........no additional camera person needed.
Heck, this might help us all cross 'Bucket List' items off our list without actually being there.
Sounds like you know what you are doing. I just mentioned the tax consequences and the ability to use options to help you improve your after tax gains.
Investors and traders need to use all the tools available and that is why I mentioned them. HIMX would be near the perfect trading stock in a Roth IRA without any taxes as all......and second best in a IRA with only ordinary income tax to pay.
One day soon when I am retired, I am going to try and convert my IRA's/401K's to Roth account so I can invest without worrying about 40% (+3.8% Obamacare tax) on my short term gains.
What do you think of selling the Jan 2015 Puts on HIMX? I think there is great value here.......without having to put up any cash (but does restrict your account due to value of Puts).
I read it also but Gomes did not give any revenue or EPS projections & seemed to just agree with the current estimates from the single analyst on Yahoo who shows $0.18 EPS for 2014. The current stock price is 30 times forward earnings....which seems more than fair to me.
I would only invest for a 25%+ upside that means 40 times forward earnings.
PXLW is a micro cap as it's projected revenue of $48.2 million for 2013 and $65.5 million for 2014. Decent growth rate and they go cash flow positive in 2014 but this is not going to attact the big funds. The Market cap at current price is only $120 million but:
- Sells at a Price to Book of 7
- Sells at a Price to Sales of 2.65
Even going cash flow positive seems backed into the current share price.
Apple iTV may stay in its current form......a plug in device and not an actual HDTV/UHDTV. Selling an actual TV would be costly to Apple and take a long time at $2,000 - $10,000 each to made a tiny dent in the market.
Selling their $99 iTV streaming device can get you 10% penetration in a year and makes much more sense...........and would not need a PXWL chip.
Apple iTV is about selling content, ads and getting eyeballs. There is no need to compete in the cut throat world of TV's and the high cost world of UHDTV's to sell content and ads.
I may be wrong here but I just do not see the case for an investment which can go up meaningfully from here. Mark is right in that the comparisons are easy.......but that is aleady known and in the share price.
Without Mark and his past success, PXLW might well be a $3 stock. His followers are the ones who hold many shares and have moved this up over $5 to Mark's profit.
Comments? I want to like this stock and want to make money. I just don't see the potential here but am open to new ideas/thoughts or correction of my thesis above.
Lastly, there is data out there that people can't tell the difference between HDTV and UHDTV on anything smaller than 60" and even then....
People also need to consider the tax consequences of trading vs. investing. For me, short term capital gain taxes ( 12 months) are only 20% (both with additional 3.8% Obamacare tax).
So, I would have to really, really, really have to be right and more profitable trading if I am to give an additional 20% of my gains to the IRS. This is why I am more a buy and hold guy. I do use covered calls to help extend my holdinhg period using the premium to hedge holding risks to my 12+ months for long term capital gains.
If I do any short term trading, I do this in my IRA & 401k where all gains are taxed as ordinary income.
In the end of the game, it is all about after tax gains.
At some point, the consumption of sapphire is integrally linked with price as there are so many glass uses with nearly all of them price dependent.
So, someone needs to better understand:
- pricing per surface area
- ability to grow larger sizes (think windows, windshields, etc.........even in specialty uses)
- whether pricing and properties will ever allow non-sapphire laminates on displays and products
- how to grow sapphire uses in ball bearings and other non-conventional uses where its properties absolutely have potential
- whether GTAT will fill many of these expanded uses directly or return to selling furnaces to others (I prefer they open plants and fill directly as selling 100 furnaces per year is steady income from producing and selling from 100 furances per year is growing sapphire sales)
- how thick sapphire needs to be to be 'bullet proof' and used in security (autos, point of sale, etc.)........and if this is appropriate (or perhaps too brittle and shatters)
- how to modulate the weaker properties of sapphire (temper its brittleness, etc. which could be done via laminates???)
Thanks for what you have done. As for future articles, I would say:
- Build out the story beyond just Apple sapphire. This would be other sapphire, sapphire furnace sales to others, Solar, PV, SiC, HiCz, Hyperion, etc. so people quit linking GTAT ONLY with Apple contract.
- Prepare to dissect the earnings report and guidance
What you say is true but very predictable for traders who trade on margin and rarely hold over a weekend. So, you can almost bank on Friday afternoon sell-offs.
But, for investors who hold for a year to save on taxes, these all offset each other and this only has meaning to day traders.
Hey sparty_one and otheres,
Actually, here on the board, it is Caffeine, Joe Blow and others who are advocating for $7/share who are the most wrong............although they don't have the publicity that Chardan and Nomura have.
Investors who wait for the factual news, vs. digging it out as sbacchus/himx2013 and others have done here (and mungee/Morgallis has done on GTAT), you lose a lot of the gains........
At some point, people wtih low price targets need to look at the actual data before them (analyst upgrades from those meeting with management; option pricing and Volume) and realize it just might be them who are missing something.
You could have hedged by selling the Jan 2015 $20 calls (last trade was $2.50 and bidding $2.35) and gotten almost 17% downside protection which still getting nearly 50% upside gains (around $22.50).
This is what I did and now have nearly 42% of my holdings as I am happy with this downside protection vs. upside potential..................and it is certainly a better risk to me than selling out AND paying short term capitals gains taxes (40% to me on 12 months; both with additional 3.8% Obamacare tax).
As I have a lot of gains and really don't need much more to retire, I am hedging ahead of earnings and may eventually hedge up to 67% of my shares. But, I will not sell my shares at the market and pay an extra 20% of my profits to the IRS!!!!
We all need to pay attention to the smaller LCoS camera arrays as they are actually a larger market than LCoS displays which go into Glasses/Goggles/HUD's. But, getting the smaller LCoS camera arrays into even 25% of the smartphones sold (and high resolution cameras can help hell phones) could be multiples of what the LCoS displays for Glasses/Goggles/HUD's.
himx2013 has posted about HIMX having the patents and Mgmt talked about this in their 3Q 2013 remarks and even show it in their presentation as a growth opportunity (talked about in #2 and even mentioned in #3).
From Investor's presentation Growth Opportunity #2:
Advanced Wafer-Level Optics (WLO) is the future trend for camera modules and lens component with small feature:
- Added new applications including light-field camera, advanced array camera, and dual color LED in flash
- Start sampling WLO with 4*4 array lens and mass production from 2Q14
- Start Developing customized lens component and MP from 1Q14
Why your numbers are correct, we should not be comparing HIMX to it's 2013 year end price as that was artificially high due to year end 'window dressing' with shorts covering. Better to compare it to 1-Dec when it was at $10.01 and before the year end anomoly.
HIMX was also up over $1 this week alone while the markets were down............and generally on stronger volume.
From my earlier comments to himx.
An April release date ties very nicely to the hiring HIMX did. This means around half of this 1Q 2014 (assume a mid-Feb ramp) should have around a million LCoS sales as they prepare for the launch by manufacturing at least a million pairs. That also means that 2Q 2014 does at least 3 million displays...............just for Google and before any other customer orders are counted.
The early sales numbers should be good.............but also misleading as there may be almost a million pairs of Glasses in various vendor inventories................depending upon how many vendors are selling them.........and if these vendors are online (smaller inventory) vs. brick and mortar stores like a Best Buy (inventory at every location).
Google designed this program very well as this is a chicken and egg scenario where Glasses are needed to build Apps but Appls are needed to sell Glasses. And, with 2 generations out there, they have learned, improved and solved various issues (like perscription glasses and frames).
- People need to realize there are at least 3 sales sectors; business productivity (easy payout), consumer (early adopters will be big) and entertainment/sports (great publicity and point of views)
- It really matters to sales how worldwide this release is (and why can't it be worldwide if they have the parts)??? Asia (especially Japan and Korea) will be huge
- The sales channels and locations will be key to inventory (early sales of displays for inventory counts) and whether they can be viewed before buying (brick and mortar stores are key to both of these as lots of stores are lots of inventory but also allow try before you buy which helps for something over $500). Sales via Google onnline and Amazon will be lower channel inventory and no try before you buy except with those attending the road shows. How many barges does Google have?????
Fair comments on the report although the author does not distinguish between the consumer market and the business market..............and even the entertainment/sports markets. People need to consider these sectors as Glasses have at least these 3 distinct uses.
First, $600 is cheap for a business investment which increases productivity. Plus, businesses get to write this cost off on their taxes so their net cost is closer to $400. The business world will be huge..........and this includes police departments and builders, etc.
Second is the price point. Google needs to display more ads as we saw in their earnings release. We also know the bill of goods for Google Glass is around $200. With mass sales, these could easily get down to $399 in a year or so.............and there will be high business and early adopter consumers the first year (53% said $600 was too high so that means 47% see it as fair...........that is huge so if only 25% of those buy, that is still a lot of consumer sales).
Besides Google selling ads, Glasses will also need compelling Apps. And, with the Explorer version out for nearly two years now, I think the Apps are here with more coming...............and there will be many customized apps for businesses.
Last comment is that an April release date ties very nicely to the hiring HIMX did. This means around half of this 1Q 2014 should have around a million LCoS sales as they prepare for the launch by manufacturing at least a million pairs. That also means that 2Q 2014 does at least 3 million displays...............just for Google and before any other customer orders are counted.
And, that was on selling the puts. I used the bid to be conservative as when you sell Puts, many times you have to hit the bid.
Calls buyer have the option but not the obligation to buy shares at the strike price.
Call sellers receive money for granting this option.
Put buyers have the option but not the obligation to sell shares at the strike price (bearish bet of hedge).
Put sellers receive money for granting this option (so can get shares put to you.......depending upon the strike price.........and too low a strike price gets you money but generally not the shares).
HIMX, the company which makes the Google Glass LCoS displays also makes, and has a patent, on small LCoS camera arrays. They will take multiple pictures and focus after the fact. They will get better resolution than most camera lens on smartphone today.
I own both GTAT and HIMX. There has been great news on HMX the past few weeks and they even shared a best of the day article with GTAT earlier this week.
I am a very happy guy......nearly retired happy.
Scratch the shorts hope for a "general market collapse to save them" as GTAT has held up great all week :-))
I do think we may see something around earnings release time as the numbers will be ugly........although most shareholders are aware.........but it might make new buyers think twice.
If you are bullish on GTAT, why would you "buy some naked puts"? Buying puts is price protection at a cost. The bullish bet is to sell naked puts. Think it through before you do something you have not done before.