I fully agree with you on all counts...........the expanding capabilities, the use in camera arrays, the timing (not quite yet but coming), etc., etc.
I usually do mention the LCOS camera arrays along with the displays as I think cameras could have a much larger market do the things you say (variable focus cameras including after the fact/picture, 3D, etc.).
I also think pico projectors are not fully recognized for their potential (eventually put into watches so the watch is your phone and Google Glasses is your personal display and pico projector is your shared display).
What is needed is both competition to drive improvements and timing.............and patience.
Go to the HIMX site and download the Investor's presentation. There is as slide which lists their general product categories and then their customers for each product category. Microsoft is shown.
Are you thinking this through? Google is not planning to pull Glasses when they are signing agreements with LUX for designs and such.
I agree that it is frustrating waiting on a release but Google is still working this from many aspects and certainly not acting like they are going to pull it.
Again, it is not just Google Glass as it is also LCOS displays for Microsoft and Sony Gaming Googles which will revolutionize gaming (3D rather than 2 D) and spur game console sales for the companies.
Then, there are LCOS camera arrays which could be as large or larger.
But, I do agree that Google Glasses are a big deal for HIMX............but I would like to see the focus on more than just Google Glasses.
From your post: "I own GT but I was wondering how will produce sapphire for the iPhone 6 when their facility is still being built?"
It is called a staged start where you complete things in sections (banks of furnaces) and can start each section (or bank or furnaces) up individually. Note that the railroads and interstates were both started before they were entirely completed..............as they could use the completed sections while waiting on the entire system to be completed.
Not that it really matters but the EPS estimates have been changed (decreased) in the last 7 days for 1Q and 2Q 2014 (and only slightly for FY 2014 meaning it is a timing issue).
2015 EPS estimates were also increased from $0.73 to $0.80. As this is the average for 11 analysts, the changes were greater than the average (7 changes for FY2014 and 4 changes for FY2015).
Interesting to see the bashers out trying to 'save the longs' from their investment in GTAT. Why were these saviors advising the shorts???????
1 increase in 2014 EPS taking the average from $0.61 to $0.62. 1 increase in 2015 EPS taking the average from $0.88 to $0.89.
Perhaps BofA is not tracked by Yahoo???
There was no change in the 1Q or 2Q 2014 EPS estimates so the increase has to be in 3Q and/or 4Q. Note that this is a penny change in the average so the actual change was higher as there are 9 (2014) and 8 (2015) analysts (but only 6 shown for 1Q and 2Q so perhaps some analysts only provide annual estimates???).
We also need discussion of Northland, Oppenheimer, Topeka, Craig-Hallum take aways as they were at conferences just a week or two before the Bank of America conference so I am sure they all got the same message. The only difference might have been how questions were worded and answered.
So, while I read and consider BofA comments, I do recognize that they are much different than what the other analysts thought/heard...........so if anyone misunderstood anything.............
But again, this is all about timing as few argue that the potential and promise is not there and that HIMX will benefit when the MANY Products come to market.
My understanding is that BofA was one of the higher estimates out there and they basically brought theirs back in line with the other analysts (seemingly trending to just below average from top quartile). I don't have enough detail to know their guess of Google Glass timing but my feeling is that they went from perhaps 2.5 quarters of ramping LCOS displays to perhaps 1 or 1.5 quarters with a slightly lower ramp.......but this is guessing.
I do think Google Glass will have a wider release in 2014 but would guess late 3Q to 4Q and I am unsure how wide this will be (more invitees as they did with gmail, Google social media, etc. to full world-wide or something in between).
I also view HIMX as extremely ethical and honest as there was no leak of the Google buy-in last June. They also meet THEIR guidance and generally toward the upper quartile of their guidance.
I have a lot of respect for HIMX management........ethically but also business wise as they invest in the right R&D and have reorganized their company well after their financial problems of 4+ years ago...........and they pay a large amount of their profits out to shareholders as dividends.
My personal feeling is that Google Glass, Sony/Microsoft Gaming Googles, Oculus Augmented Reality Glasses, etc. will do well and HIMX will benefit greatly. I also think HIMX LCOS Camera Arrays will surprise us all with their benefit to HIMX and consumers.
Someday in the future, the timing can be argued, HIMX will be over $30 and earn well over $1/share while paying a dividend and I will probably still be holding my shares.
I posted toward 2013 year end that I thought HIMX was getting ahead of itself and thus I sold 40% of my holdings as covered calls (but at $20 strike price in Jan 2015). These will now probably not get called and I can keep the $2.85 premium.
You have to sell the shares at the strike price when you sell calls. So, selling $6 calls for $6.40 means you get $12.40 for your shares. As you can buy the shares for under $12, that is still a decent return over just a few week period. You do lose all upside but you don't have to do this with all your shares. Do like glsken and have shares you hold and share you trade (and covered calls is a way to trade).
What Motley Fool and even BofA had to say were somewhat valid and people should read and consider their statements. My complaints are:
- Motley did not give any revenue or earnings data to support their case..........or explain how HIMX has been growing margins the past bunch of quarters........and is projecting higher margins. Motley only did some general arm waving and did not address reality.
- Motley also did not address the very positive comments and price targets of Northland, Oppenheimer, Topeka, etc., etc. or the optimistic comments by Craig-Hallum. Why not mention the other side of the coin???
- BofA is mostly concerned with timing but is bullish longer term. As a long term investor with a very low cost basis, I will take steady gains over the next few years while collecting the dividend.
- Still, no one is really addressing the many companies working with HIMX on LCOS displays with Sony and Microsoft being existing customers. The focus seems to only be on Google
- The Google news should actually be bullish as they are doing a great job of engaging developers and working to improve Google Glass. The only concern here is timing and I am a patient investor
- Still, no substantial discussion of LCOS camera arrays which are groundbreaking and HIMX has patents and a larger technology lead.
So, lets get a really balance article............or at least the MB needs to consider both the bullish and bearish articles. Timing could certainly be an issue...........but I expect many products out by Christmas and that means HIMX has associated sales in late 3Q and then 4Q 2014 at the latest. Until then, I am in relaxation mode and focused elsewhere. MU had some good buying opportunities late last week with earnings released this week.
You need to work on your reading comprehension........as you have misunderstood almost everything I have written. It is almost like you enjoy being insulted so you have an ax to grind. I will admit enjoying pushing your buttons for fun and games.......as it seems I live rent free in your head as you have fixated on my investments.
Perhaps you got into HIMX before me........but my was timed nearly perfectly as I bought below $2 in Oct 2012 and below $3 in Feb 2013 (when it dropped after earnings). I am also up more than 6 figures and that is not bragging.......just stating facts (as you did in your note).
As for IMOS, I never bashed the stock.....and why would I as I was/am an owner of the stock, some calls and sold Puts? My quibble was always around growth........and always agreed (although you never comprehended that) it was undervalued. I posted several times:
- IMOS had been undervalued for years........and thus waiting for it to become properly valued was a guessing game...........and growth was the best way to get noticed.
- Debated growth prospects as there was no debate on valuation (although you kept harping on this but I never disputed this..........I was onto something worthy of debating)
- I was much later into IMOS and thus it a buy decision around last June at $17+ was a different question than a hold from a much lower basis (as HIMX is now for me). Note that IMOS really never gained much from $17 in June 2013 until into 2014.
Anyway, I will leave you with another quote of wisdom as I know you dislike those (but not sure why as even Winston Churchill said "it behooves an uneducated man to read a book of quotes".......paraphrased and I am not calling your uneducated as much as I am labeling myself one........even though I have a honors degree).
Steven Covey said (and titled a Chapter in his book '7 Habit so Highly Successful People') "Seek to Understand before trying to be Understood. Note that is why I requested IMOS input
Do you really just think all companies should have the same P/E? Isn't that pretty simple thinking.........even for you?
Even within a single industry, P/E's should reward companies with growth. Personally, I focus more on PEG as that rewards growth.................as growth should be rewarded.
Finally, growth stocks are not value plays. You are needed at the GTAT Message Board to help us all as this stock is up 450% since I bought in big at $4 last June.
Be sure to also view the Investor's presentation at the HIMX website. Great stuff and as good an insight as you can get.
HIMX is 'being played'. There will probably be a few week buying period while the MM and institutions play with the traders. Longer term, HIMX Is a winner...............even BofA thinks so........and they just quibbled on the timing. Northland and Oppenheimer opinions should be considered also.
But, I have a long term investor here and I am patient.
I just read the Seeking Alpha article on CODE and am intrigued as CODE seems to have great potential.
Anyone lurking and have comments on CODE or the article?
Your source's insight certainly helps to explain how/why BoA downgraded the stock..........but Northland and Oppenheimer upgraded their price targets.
With 1Q 2014 ending and funds/institutions required to report their holdings, I will be very surprised if BoA has not sold much of their holdings.........as they basically declared HIMX over-valued. If they have not sold quite a few shares, eyebrows should be raised.
Agree but it is more than just Google Glass as Sony is now out with news although no release date. Microsoft is a customer of HIMX and also working on Augmented Reality Glasses as is Baidu and others. The competition should drive quicker releases.
There is also LCoS camera arrays which are not really being factored in and these could be bring higher sales than the LCoS displays.
Finally, for everyone reacting to BoA, where is the consideration for Northland and Oppenheimer who raised price targets and even Craig-Hallum who posted "optimistic" comments although I am unsure of changes to their price target.
I tend to think of Google Glasses and the like in various categories with the media nearly solely focused on the individual person sector........where it will do well but not as compelling reasons as the other sectors such as:
- Government like police and fire where the always connected, facial scans, license plate scan, license scan and recording of audio along with variable angle recording make it far superior to the dash mounted camera now is use. Better recording and thus less liability for police and fire will be tremendous and the NYC Police is already out and testing (and liking) these.
- Commercial use such as business........and people with a need for reference documents will be tremendously more productive (builders, machinists, carpenters, etc., etc.).
- Medical use which is also being piloted and reviews are positive
- Virtual Reality for gaming, etc. which will also be huge as it does add another dimension to gaming (turn your head and you see behind you........whereas now you lose view of your screen).
- Sharing viewpoints for sportscasters, sports players and entertainers who can share their viewpoints with others. Same with making news reporting a bit simpler and cheaper without the need for a camera person
- Public.........or people who just want one...........where the media focuses...........but the uses are not nearly as compelling as those above............but these will sell regardless and more with time.
But, think of the various sectors rather than follow the media who seems to be focused only on personal use.
You should quit lying as I hold IMOX shares, come call options and even sold some June Puts. You obviously can not read as my bit about IMOS was growth and lack of Capex meant lower growth for IMOS. I always agreed that it was undervalued..............but was worried about how long is was going to be undervalued.
Go back and read my posts and feel free to quote any post where I said IMOS was over-valued or not worth an investment. All my concerns were about growth..............and IMOS was not growing.
I did state that their capital pull forward into 2013 should help.............but all my concerns were around growth so my investment was not as large as it was in HIMX at $1.90, GTAT at $4, TQNT at $5, MU at $18, even CTSO at $0.10.
I also stated that HIMX was run up at year end and sold Jan 2015 $20 Calls at $2.80 and that it will be a second half 2014 story.
You are here spreading lies...............and you supposedly had me on ignore so how would you see my posts?
But, I will take my gains on IMOS (Puts are due in June, Calls are for June and I may not exercise them and just close them ahead of expiration leaving me only with my 10,000 shares of IMOS which I may let ride to June when I can sell and pay long term capital gains taxes on my gains.
But, I never claimed that IMOS was overvalued...........I just questioned their growth as the chip industry is growing faster than IMOS and their lack of Capital means they will not have a lot of future growth as more and more chips move to in-house testing as Intel does and the MU purchase of Elipeda does...........plus there are rumors that South Korea bumping/testing companies are compression margins...........and I thought IMOS guided for slightly lower margins.
So, I am just not allocating much investment capital to IMOS but I still have positions and do not appreciate you misleading others about my posts.