I will take a deeper look at AUO and post anything questions/comments at that site MB.
I see they pay an annual dividend which is common with Taiwan companies as there is a tax advantage for Taiwan companies to do so. I also see they got out of the solar panel manufacturing business which means their revenues will shrink and they took a write down of assets (all seemingly priced into the stock).
They do seem to be in a commodity TFT panel business which Chinese companies are entering and competing in. So, what compelling technology or busines do they have which sets them apart?
Somehow I don't think KOPN or EMAN will be bought out........at least by a larger manufacturer of end devices (like a APPL, GOOG, MSFT, Sony, etc.) as KOPN and EMAN are in the component business. They could get bought out by a chip manufacturing or supply company though. I just don't like to invest on that thesis alone.....but it could factor into the overall investment thesis and both EMAN and KOPN have good technology and now very compelling valuations.
I just don't get why these stocks are down like they are........and dislike investing in stocks with these less than ideal chart patterns. But, it also won't take much good news to really move these stocks........but they have both had decent news and buying recently and that did not help them rise....at least rise for long as:
+ EMAN went to $1.90 and now back to $1.45 in less than 2 weeks on their $1 million license deal and got $1.50/share cash for their recent stock offering
+ KOPN got cash from INTC and now another $15 million final payment. They had their CEO buy shares in Aug 2015, reported good earnings, had a 2 million share buy in Dec 2015 and 2.4 million share buy this week.........and is now 20+%
If I can't understand these movements, should I really be buying these???
I should have been clearer (and more accurate) on the pricing. Amazon has these VUZI products on their website:
+ M310XL for $430 which has 18 reviews with an average of 3 stars.
+ M100 for $1,000 which has 17 reviews with an average of 3-1/2 stars (many seem questionable both good and negative).
I do wonder if VUZI is selling these in bulk to corporate customers at some discount........and then how much 'help' they are providing. These would be good for future sales and business........but have a real cost and impact on current business.
Anyway, what do people here expect from VUZI for 4Q 2015 and then 1Q 2016 guidance?
So, what should we expect from the upcoming 4Q 2015 Earnings release and Conference Call?
The 2 analysts reporting on the Yahoo Finance page are expecting $1.08 million in revenue (range is $0.92 to $1.25 million) and a loss of $0.15/share (range is loss of $0.12 to loss of $0.17). It would seem that VUZI might be able to beat on the top line........but it seems they have been spending a lot of money on development of new glasses and promotions getting ready for 2016 CES so earnings are questionable.
Perhaps the real key is forward guidance for 1Q 2016. None of the pre-order revenue counts on new products (M300 now until mid-year?) until they ship the product so I am uncertain how bullish VUZI can be although their M100 glasses will be key.
The single analysts is currently projecting $1.25million and a loss of $0.18. But, this revenue seems to be only around 2,500 pairs of glasses at $500.
Where did the 2.4 million shares come from which traded this week with almost no change in price? And, why did this not cause a rise in share price as someone should have been bullish buying these shares (sellers have lots of reasons to sell.......but buyers only buy to make money).
On Dec 18, 2015, there was another trade of over 2 million shares which did cause a $0.33 or so share price gain........which did not last long. Where did these shares come from and why did KOPN share price not rise and hold after this bullish buy?
Heck, the CEO bought a lot of shares in Aug 2015 around $2.45........and KOPN is down 20% from there.
KOPN has gotten cash from INTC (Recon purchase) and just got the final $15 million from a $70 million business sale in 2013. Why is this not bullish for KOPN?
I am confused with this stock. I thought it's chart had stabilized around $2.40........but obviously it has not.
At what price and when is KOPN a buy??????
I am also surprised by the downward action in EMAN & KOPN despite what should be good news for them. I am glad that I am still on the sidelines on these two but want to buy them when their charts stabilize.
+ EMAN gets orders, has good tech, raised cash via an offering at $1.50 and just received $1 million for a non-exclusive license agreement.........yet dropped from nearly $2 to Friday's close of $1.45/share
+ KOPN got millions from INTC for Recon and just got the final $15 of $70 million for a company they sold in 2013. CEO bought shares near $2.45 in August 2015.......and had a 2 million share buy in Dec 2015 over $2 and then another last week...........but has now dropped below $2. KOPN also announces good tech in displays (smallest ever for Smartglasses), wins CES awards, whisper software, etc., some products (cycling glasses)....and supposedly has signed some tier 1 companies........but nothing increases share price.......not even the cash infusions.
Why can't these companies hold their gains on what should be good news?
I do have some concerns that both companies are very small and thus will not have the financial strength or manufacturing capabilities for large companies to buy from. These large companies (Microsoft, Google, FB/Oculus, etc.) don't want their suppliers to be limited on manufacturing or finances........but also don't want to advance them money to expand in advance.
I also monitor VUZI which is ahead of the pack on Smartglasses and is doing good things........but is incurring lots of expenses now (promotions, helping new customers) and will soon see lots of competition from very deep pocketed companies (Microsoft, HTC, Sony, Google, FB?Oculus) so I have concerns there also.
Finally, I did ride HIMX from under $2 selling around $12 (after its fall from $16) in spring 2014....and have traded it a bit and follow that also.
All are confusing but HIMX has a good main business which puts it in many company supply chains.
Wearable Tech is a good site that I have been following for some time. It would be good for Jeb and others to sign up here so all can post something of substance that others might not be aware of.
By the way, Jeb is not a paid poster. He just doesn't seem to have other things to occupy his time and posts here a lot.....very often on the same things until he gets angry and then you read that also. Jeb needs to funnel that anger and desire for attention/approval along with a good dose of curiosity into something constructive like signing up and reading Wearable Tech and other sites and bring that to this message board where his real news will then become welcome.
One recent takeaway from this site is that the next gen Apple iWatch (perhaps released this fall) and other smart watches will be able to connect to the Internet so they can be independent of your smartphone (but also linked via the Internet rather than just via Bluetooth) making the watch more independent of your smartphone which may not always be with you.
The way to profit from this is to buy SWKS (my pick) or QRVO/AVGO, etc. as this will greatly expand the need for radios/receivers/amps/filters for Internet connections. I made great money in SWKS/RFMD/TQNT (sold RFMD & TQNT in Dec 2014 just as they were ready to combine to form QRVO & old SWKS last summer) when I learned 3G content was ~$1.80 but went to over $9/phone when they went to LTE communications. So, I knew that their revenues and earnings would rise without a rise in smartphone sales....but just by the conversion to LTE.
Now, with watches going to Internet connections, these same companies can benefit from connectivity to the Internet which expands their markets from just smartphones.
There are many other investment takeaways from Wearable Tech and other sites that curious people can find if they read...and with Jeb's background, he could really help himself and others by reading and connecting the dots from this site
The shorts also have one week to cover or they pay the $0.12/share dividend.
The shorts then have another 3 weeks to cover or they will be holding during the Earnings Report and Conference Call where we should get information on the next dividend.........and whether it will be 30% to 50% of the earnings which are expected to be $0.42/share so we should get between $0.125 and $0.21/share in late April 2016.
Some larger blocks totaling over 500,000 shares trading after hours nearly $0.08 above today's close.
Not sure why someone is buying so far above what they could have purchased 8 to 12 minutes early for nearly 8% less............and these volumes are not from someone stupid enough to place a market order. I suspect more games are being played with GNW share price.
Time (ET) Price Share Volume
16:12 $ 2.4898 High 146,700
16:08 $ 2.4892 353,722
16:01 $ 2.41 8,631
16:01 $ 2.41 34,100
What is your opinion of:
+ Freedom of choices?
+ Liquor as alcohol has hurt many, many, many more lives than they have improved?
+ Legalizing pot as it has the problems of tobacco along with those of alcohol and others?
+ Ethanol as it takes 0.9 gallons of fuel to make a gallon of ethanol.....so we are burning and emitting much more fuel and CO2 than needed if we would just use oil based gasoline (and use much less land, fertilizers, and raise much less dust)....yet ethanol is supposed to reduce pollution????
+ Keystone pipeline as it would great reduce CO2 from trucks and rail moving oil as pipeline is more direct and uses cleaner electric pumps (electricity from cleaner natural gas)....and Canada will soon export their oil to Europe & Asia in CO2 emitting tankers?
+ Taxing those who earn a good income or have capital gains basically taking the fruits of their labor and giving it to others........which basically is economic slavery?
Are you consistent in your views.......or do you pick and choose how you prefer to judge people and their choices?
First, being completely wireless is key on these items.
Second, swappable batteries will also be key on those that are wireless.
Third, look for wireless charging (see IDTI for one stock) and fast charging batteries (without fire risk) as those will be coming.
Where did these shares come from? Were they being accumulated for an arranged sale.......as it is surprising that this did not really move the share price as it should have if they were all bought/sold from the bid/ask.
Recall also that KOPN had a 2 million share block trade on Dec 18, 2015 and this occurred a bit over $3/share. So, this trade happened a month later and at a 35+% discount to the Dec 18, 2015 trade.
What is up.........and can this really be bullish......as the shares are down over 35% from a month ago when there was a 2 million share trade. I am confused on these trades and where the shares come from......and on KOPN which seems to be well undervalued.......but still dropping even with today's news on getting the remaining $15 million (around $0.22/share) cash from Intel.......which was widely known.
Yes, it seems people confuse slow growth an actual decrease when that is not so. China is still growing and I would expect their oil consumption to grow slightly also as car ownership is growing.
In fact, China would be wise to buy and store oil for later use....sort of a strategic stockpile as the USA and other nations do. Cheap oil will not last forever and those who do not buy futures and/or store cheap oil will regret it later.
I was just a bit disappointed that the author of that article made HIMX seem like a HMD LCoS/WLO/TCON company only when HIMX has a great business outside of this sector...and wanted to bring that out. Many times in the past, HIMX has been pigeonholed as that and then gets hurt when HMD/Smartglasses get delayed. HIMX should be valued on the totality of their business and not just this one sector.
I wonder if HIMX has Korean AMOLED manufacturer as a customer and selling them their state of the art AMOLED display drivers??? I also wonder who the end customers are for these displays and where they are being used???
From Seeking Alpha today:
MagnaChip (NYSE:MX) expects to report Q4 revenue of $152M, near the high end of a $143M-$153M guidance range and above a 2-analyst $148.8M consensus. Gross margin is expected to be at 19%, above prior guidance of 14%-16%.The Korean analog/mixed-signal and display chipmaker primarily attributes the GM guidance hike to "an increase in demand for its AMOLED products as well as better than expected product mix and manufacturing efficiencies."
I saw this mentioned in the comments section of the HIMX article on Seeking Alpha.
Is this a language interpretation thing or does HIMX have so much demand that they are selecting their customers for this new "Ultra-Low Power CMOS Image Sensor"?
From the last line of the PR, see the use of word "selected":
The sensor can also integrate into Wafer Level Modules to be available for selected customers and partners in the first quarter of 2016.
Whoever is using volatility to profit from MXL certainly knows the bias has to the upside here as MXL did pre-announce their 4Q 2015 and then gave guidance for 1Q 2016. And, many others like Zack's, are very positive on MXL....and analysts have been raising their estimates (which does set the bar a bit higher and reduces the chances for a beat).
Then, there is the history of the share price reaction to the 3Q 2015 announcement and conference call.
So, my take is that whoever is causing this volatility in MXL is doing this to go long(er) as you would have to be an idiot to be going short here where there are so many better shorts out there.
Accordingly, I think they will get positioned by the end of January and we should see an upward march in share price going into earnings. In fact, adding shares at this price would be a great idea....except for the overall market sentiment. But, I do expect this share price manipulation to be ending before 8-Feb 2016 when MXL will be announcing earnings, repeating great guidance and holding their conference call.
Saw your post at IV. Quite complicated and lots of speculation.........but it is better than anything I have.
Your speculation does somewhat answer why a licensee would be concerned about the secondary if you are correct that they will buy displays from EMAN. But, it was still a disservice to the shareholder to do the offering at $1.50 and with the news at $1.90 or ever $1.75.
Anyway, thanks and I hope we learn something at the upcoming conference call. Interesting that you accept "tight lipped" from shares you own.........but not from those you don't own and hate ;-) (a joke....but true).
Now, we just need all the AR/VR products to get out so they can be used, improved and adopted. I made the point the other day that it would not be hard to make a VR device mimic a cell phone as people don't seem to mind dropping $500 to $750 on an iPhone or other high end device....albeit at monthly payments to their cell phone provider who could be offering VR headsets also if they mimic smartphones.
You know that HIMX generally can't name names or give specifics..........so one has to 'read between the lines' which the author did. Whether he is correct or not, I would think that was his interpretation of the Jan 4, 2016 PR which stated:
TAINAN, Taiwan, Jan. 04, 2016 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Himax Technologies, Inc. (HIMX) (“Himax” or “Company”), a leading supplier and fabless manufacturer of display drivers and other semiconductor products, today announced its Wafer Level Optics (“WLO”) laser diode collimator with integrated Diffractive Optical Element (“DOE”) has been integrated into laser projectors for next-generation applications. Himax has significantly reduced the size of laser projectors, enabling the integration of technologies, such as active 3D scanners, into mobile devices, automobiles, augmented and virtual reality devices, and IoT applications.
That seems very clear to me as it specifically states: "today announced its Wafer Level Optics (“WLO”) laser diode collimator with integrated Diffractive Optical Element (“DOE”) has been integrated into laser projectors for next-generation applications."
The PR goes on to state:
"We are currently collaborating with several major OEMs' product developments using our WLO as our expertise in WLO design and manufacturing enables significant size and cost reduction of coded laser projectors. For example, in an active sensing 3D camera projector, our technology can reduce the size of the incumbent laser projector module by a factor of 9, actually making it smaller than conventional camera modules. This breakthrough allows our WLO collimator to be easily integrated into next-generation smartphones, tablets, automobiles, wearable devices, IoT applications, consumer electronics accessories and several other products to enable new applications in the consumer, medical, and industrial marketplaces."