Thanks for your input on 3D printers and Organovo. As I wrote, I think tissue printers may excel early as they use limited printing materials. I will need to look at RGDO although I generally stay away from biotech. Do you post on that board?
Looks like out market and economy discussion is being swallowed up in the Samsung/LG sapphire sampling news which is understandable.
Would love to share a drink and BS on our outlooks........and especially on the trading/investing strategies to benefit from these outlooks as I am fooling myself if I think I know it all.
I do think the non-healthcare economy will suffer in 2015 with Obamacare and the corporate mandate as deductibles will hurt the consumer...........but overall GDP will do well as healthcare is in GDP numbers.
Keep in mind that GTAT will be selling many of these furnaces..........and the expanded use of sapphire is thus good for GTAT.
And, this trend toward the use of sapphire could also spread to other market segments which will benefit GTAT as they could manufacture sapphire for these other market segments as well as sell those furnaces.
Finally, anyone manufacturing sapphire for Samsung and LG just might want Hyperion machines from GTAT.
So, this news is very bullish for GTAT even if not everyone can connect the dots.
Again, a good market rises on a wall of worry and those predicting a correction are offset by those who buy these short term downturns thinking 2Q & 2H 2014 will do well and show growth.
CNBC had two investment economists who both said the data they were using indicate we are headed for 4% annualized growth in 2Q with some models showing as high #$%$......again using real data. But, this has to be viewed in context of 0.1% annualized GDP in 1Q so that still means 2% to 2.5% over the first half of 2014.
Keep in mind that companies are in good shape for costs & margins so any additional top line revenue can help the bottom line EPS.
I think a lot of the doom and gloom are those who want a correction as they are going short and not getting the results they wanted (more downside to buy back lower). See the action on the momentum stocks which only went so far (AMZN hurt the worst with TSLA, NFLX recovering to some degree). Even Facebook is now back over $60.
They also tried to crater the Russell which is now recovering & over 1110.
Keep in mind that many tech companies have lower P/E's (except for some high fliers) and have higher growth and Wall Street will pay for growth. With a reasonable P/E, a company growing at 20% will rise 20%/year at a constant P/E.....and see if Coke, IBM & industrials can even do 5%.
Having written this, I do plan to sell into the 2H 2014 gains as I have done very well the past few years and have enough for 2 retirements.....so time for capital preservation. I retired and can start early 401k/IRA withdrawals in 2015 (59-1/2) which I will convert to Roth staying at/below the 25% tax bracket to get as much as I can out before my two pensions kick in at age 65 raising my tax bracket for more withdrawals along with Social Security at age 66 (or let it ride to age 70??). I will only hold a few speculative shares like GTAT, MU, TQNT and HIMX (was stopped out on its decline some weeks ago) and will hold in my ROTH
Search for Black Scholes (spelling?) models on options as these spreadsheets are already written & available and this is the accepted methodology for valuing options. Actually, you can find downloadable spreadsheets and even sites where you can input the numbers and see the results.
Then, your 'guesswork' is limited to what you think the share price will do (can create 'tornado charts' where you can see what a +10% and -10% share price would do to the option).
Then, when you get really good with this, you can work on your own model :-) But, using an existing black scholes spreadsheet will get you up the learning and using curve very quickly. I know as I once started designing my own option model spreadsheet (actually was fun but the goal is to make money and not delay while perfecting a spreadsheet model).
At a minimum, read up on black-scholes to see the math for your use.
Actually a reasonable post from you on 3D printing................although you and many others way over-simplify 3D printing.
Right now, 3D printing uses very few materials. Keep in mind that many products are a combination of many materials...................from plastic to rubber to leather to cloth to metal to composites to.....................
So, a printer which uses only plastic is very limited in scope to models rather than durable consumer products.
And, the winners in this space might be the printers which also recycle materials to reduce input costs.
I really think the early, non-model 3D printers will be centrally located and now home owned for some time as who will feed the very many materials needed for true product printing.
Perhaps there will be specialized printers for clothing (still need cotton, polyester, leather, metal snaps/zippers, etc.), shoes (leather, composite soles, metal eyelets, etc.).
So, you can see that those who are jumping on the 3D printing bandwagon thinking we are nearly there are really missing a lot as the really useful 3D printers will need many base materials which can be mixed to make real products made up of numerous materials. And, the cost of 3D printing materials will greatly decrease if they can recycle used materials rather than having to buy the same materials you are 'throwing away'.
Actually, the use in the medical field could actually come early as that is limited to tissue materials and then base chemicals for medication (which could be highly regulated as we could print all sorts of controlled drugs).
Again, do more research as there is much, much more sophistication needed in 3D printing before they really become useful for more than 3D model mock-ups.
I would add far too many technologies to flop to your "Far too much good tech future to flop".
GTAT is well diversified now within various growing sectors..............and then have Hyperion which addresses material and labor inefficiencies so there is a whole lot to like in GTAT.
The higher number of shorts is in the longs favor as we move closer and closer to 3Q and 4Q 2014 and then 2015.
Also, the number of big funds in GTAT helps protect us. I have to agree with whoever wrote that the last investment bank analysis was prompted by big funds to support the price point here.
Hey rudedudde_2k, retailbaloon, etc.,
Keep in mind that projections for 2H 2014 is over 3% growth in GDP and many company margins are very good meaning additional revenue will help bottom line quite a bit.
Also, there is lots of skepticism in the market so that minimizes the 'irrational exuberance' problem as there is still a lot of money on the sidelines and shorts volume is healthy (vs. low).
I like a market that 'climbs a wall of worry' rather than very bullish as that means there are shorts to cover and more money on the sidelines coming in rather than most of the money 'all in'.
Having written this, I do think Obamacare & the corporate mandate kicking in at 2014 year end could suck lots of cash out of the non-healthcare markets as people get hit with higher premiums and especially deductibles so be careful in 2015. GDP will look fine as healthcare is part of GDP.............but the non-healthcare market and companies could suffer in 2015.
Keep in mind that HPQ:
- was down 2.3% in regular trading
- is back down $0.08 right now in after hours trading
- is expected to report ~$2.80 for 2014 so the P/E is already lower
- is returning cash to shareholders via 2% dividend and share buybacks
- seems pretty fairly valued here so I expect downside to be limited
What do people here think HPQ should trade at if they are going to earn $2.80/share? At a 15 P/E that is $42 share and it is well below that now..................and again they pay a 2% dividend at the lower $3x price.
And this is just Google Glass. There is also:
- Gaming Goggles where you new play games in 3D as you can 'look' behind you to see what is there and thus change views rather than now looking away from your screen
- Virtual reality goggles which can also be used for medical, telecommute, video calls, etc.
- Camera arrays which will improve picture quality without expensive lens, allow photo editing after the picture is taken with options for focal point and depth of field
- FIber optic switches which operate on various color light sprectrums which could greatly expand the speed and capability of the internet (especially for Ultra (4k) HDTV video streaming)
The ramp up may be slower than we want.............but HIMX should appreciate 20% to 40%/year AND pay a dividend. At its decline with Innolux selling last June, HIMX hit $5. This year it only hit a bit below $7 so that was a 30% gain in the lows. I lucked out thinking HIMX was ahead of itself and sold covered calls on 31-Dec 2013 and then got stopped out with my sell stop order which I set while traveling and knowing I was going to be away for several weeks. So, I get to play the $7 to $15 range twice rather than just once.
Yeah I probably sound like a broken record but I am projecting at least 4 segments for Google Glass:
1) Work/corporate/company productivity increases (those who need reference documents like carpenters, home builders, road construction, misc construction, machinists, architects, mechanics, etc., etc.). These people should be early adopters as they can deduct the price of Google Glass from their taxes and there is a very distinct payback with improved productivity and less mistakes and waste.
1a) A sub-category for police, fire and military, etc. in the public sector who could use this improve productivity.....especially the police (look at license plate and license for internet searches of these as well as record both audio and visual) and military (give silent directions, maps and share video feeds).
1b) Use in medical fields for documentation (look at bar codes on patient and medication, etc.) and sharing of surgical learnings, etc.
1c) Another sub-category go lump in newscasters here who would no longer need a camera person unless they want to be on camera rather than showing what they are looking at. But, saving a camera person would be larger savings for the news company and thus real savings.
These 1, 1a, 1b, 1c uses will be larger and quick with lots of opportunity for software app writers to give specialize software.
2) Shared reality primarily from entertainers/sports/adventurists/etc. who can share their reality with the world (100 mph fastball, tennis, football, etc., etc.). This can also be museums who can give Google Glass to visitors and it will give them details on whatever they look at along with maps, etc.
3) Personal improvement which would be teachers (universities are already experimenting with this supposedly with UC Irvine expanding use along with coaches/players and such
4) Casual user in private use....another huge category but perhaps the most price sensitive area. But, there are teardown showing $200 parts cost
Your logic is sound but you are missing that a lower risk investments mean you can 'risk' more capital.
And, selling Put options take very little capital to control more shares as you receive money into your account when you sell the Puts.
In essence, I would sell X contracts of GTAT $25 Puts.............but perhaps sell 3X to 5X as many contacts of GTAT at $14.
But, this is just for example as you need to do what you are comfortable with. But, those who do not know and use options are a few tools short of a wise investing tool box so do learn them.
Think also of coaching using Google Glass. Think of Quarterbacks going through their progression of reads and then breaking that down with the coach to determine if the QB's brain registered what the eyes saw.......and coaching to reads and such.
The same for point guards and many other sports coaching uses.
This is the personal improvement use of Google Glass.........another segment of users.
CNBC also had Roger Federer's point of view on playing tennis.
I have also said that shared realities are a use of Google Glass..........for those that understand the various use segments (work related reference productivity being the best). See GoPro cameras for how big this market is..........and GoPro doesn't connect to the internet yet or give other views to the wearer.
I think jmellink is a boiler room basher who is paid to post here to create fear, uncertainity and doubt. I don't see him as a long and it is hard for me to think anyone could really be short here.
Many times these bashers get paid when people reply to their posts.
The only way we see $10 to $12 is when the story changes significantly and dives under expectations. I don't see this happening as there are too many institutions/funds in GTAT. Keep in mind that GTAT is getting closer each day to that $600 to $800 million in revenue (and then over $1 billion). So, time does not favor a drop in price to $10 to $12.
In my opinion, the best plays on GTAT are to sell Puts for Jan 2015 and Jan 2016. If you want money for nothing, you sell the lower priced puts. If you want to get the shares, sell the higher priced Puts.
Note that there are Put strike prices out there where you would get the shares at a lower price than buying it at the market. But, you do risk not getting any shares if you use a Put strike price under $20 for Jan 2015 and $25 for Jan 2016. But, collecting the Put premium can be attractive as you put very little capital at risk.
I have some sold some of both. The lower priced strike prices are very low risk and getting money from selling $15 Puts is attractive as they are bidding $3 for Jan 2015 Puts which is a net price of $12 if the shares are put to you. Most likely GTAT will be above $15 which means you get no shares.............but you keep the $3.
Just wanting to temper expectations here as WWDC may not be as iPhone 6 hardware centric as many are anticipating.
Higher expectations can lead to larger disappointments in attitude and even share prices. For investors, we should only worry about the longer term and not focus too much on early announcements.
Having written this, the larger screens are absolutely needed to regain momentum overseas and especially Asia and India where the cell phone can be the ONLY internet and computing device consumers own (few laptops and/or tablets) and thus display size is critical.
But, part of share price stability is avoiding timing and managing expectations. Price volatility only brings traders and game players so keep your eye on the longer term here.
I also agree with jonathan on GTAT on under-promising. There was no reason for GTAT to raise 2014 revenue as it is so backside loaded already. Keep in mind that GTAT management needs to be long range minded and not short term thinkers on share price or business results.
If you hold to 2016 or later, you will be well rewarded. Use the dips and options (sell Puts) to add to your position.
My take on the overall market is that big money tried to 'force' a correction in the overall markets starting late April/early May........hoping to feed into the adage "sell in May and go away". But, earnings were actually reasonable other than retail related where they blamed weather (which I don't fully accept).
Look at the whiplash of the NASDAQ where they had some large daily reversals and did get it near 4,000 but buying kept coming back.
Just the past two weeks it seemed that big money changed their strategy by going after the Russell thinking they could panic smaller stocks first and then let it bleed into the S&P, NASDAQ, etc. They did get that down over 10% and below 1100 but even that is now recovering slightly with some advisors seeing good value there as smaller companies can be more nimble and grow faster (from smaller levels) than larger companies.
This is all notional but I think the 'forced' correction has failed due to decent earnings and expectations of growth in the second half of 2014. You can look at the shorts and VIX for notional verification.
I think the motivation was to be able to make some money by leading a correction and then buying back lower and riding the market into the 2nd half GDP increase.........as markets generally do well heading into elections.
Iff you worry about leaving digital foot/finger prints, try not posting at all............or only post when you have some real information to share.
What does your post here really say?
- your guess (1 of millions) when the iPhone6 may come out
- iPhone may or may not have sapphire screens
Research more and post less...........or not at all!!!!!!!
Apple may buy in and take an equity stake in GTAT but they will not buy them out and operate the company as Apple is not an operating company.
And, GTAT has value well beyond sapphire and even solar. As such, I doubt Apple could offer enough to buy out GTAT. But, they could invest in it for the intellectual property and such as that can help Apple as they would be able to help direct R&D which is what Apple would want anyway.
But, Apple contracts out almost all their operations.................and GTAT was and is now (after Apple deal) even more than ever an operating company.